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Assiniboia Picks & Predictions — August 25, 2026

August 25, 20267 racesAll Assiniboia picks

This card ran on August 25, 2026.

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Best bets at Assiniboia, August 25, 2026

Race 11Boujee BritchesML 10/18:30 PM EDT

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It's a pleasant Tuesday at Assiniboia Downs — partly cloudy skies and a comfortable 70°F mean conditions are about as cooperative as you'll get on the prairies. Seven races are on the board today across a full dirt card, and with no weather drama to factor in, the focus shifts squarely to pace, class, and finding value in a field that spans allowances, claimers, and a stakes race to close out the afternoon.

The highlight of the day is Race 6, a stakes event going 1 1/16 miles where What's Shakin draws our eye at a generous 8/1 morning line. There's also plenty of intrigue earlier in the card, including a pair of longshot plays in Races 1 and 2 where TrackWiz analysis has flagged real value at double-digit odds. Don't sleep on the early races — the card gets deep in a hurry.

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Race 1

8:30 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

The morning-line favorite gets overrun by our ratings in this 6-furlong allowance opener — Boujee Britches sits atop the TrackWiz model at 76.88 while Lisa Connects goes off as the 8/5 public choice, setting up a potential overlay situation right out of the gate.

win1Boujee BritchesML 10/1

Boujee Britches is the TrackWiz top-rated horse in this field at 76.88 — a full 6+ points clear of the next contender — despite going off at a generous 10/1 on the morning line. That gap between public perception and model rating is exactly the kind of overlay we look for. Kerron Khelawan gets the mount for trainer Wendy Anderson, and while the 7% career win rate is modest, this is the spot where the ratings say the talent outstrips the résumé. At double-digit odds, the value case here is hard to ignore.

place2My Kinda DeliteML 3/1

My Kinda Delite brings the best career win percentage in the field at 33%, which tells you this horse knows how to compete when conditions are right. Rachaad Knights is up for trainer J. Douglas Mustard, and the 3/1 morning line reflects that the public respects this one. With an average speed figure of 53, marginally ahead of the pack, My Kinda Delite looks like a solid place anchor in your exotics.

show3MisspennymischiefML 5/1

Misspennymischief carries a perfect 100% career win rate — a small sample caveat applies, but undefeated is undefeated. Trainer Jason Homer saddles this one at 5/1, and the horse's 52 average speed figure puts it in the mix on raw ability. For exotic players building trifectas, this is the kind of sneaky live horse that can quietly hit the board.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

9:00 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 1/2 fur · Dirt

A classic pace battle shapes up in this 7½-furlong claiming event — the morning-line favorite Lab Rat is being faded by our model in favor of a pair of higher-rated contenders going off at much bigger prices, including a double-digit longshot sitting atop the TrackWiz ratings.

win2Master of DisguiseML 10/1

Master of Disguise is our TrackWiz top-rated horse at 76.88 yet somehow goes off at 10/1 — that's the definition of a value play. The 53 average speed figure leads the field and is a full two ticks ahead of most rivals over the extra distance of 7½ furlongs. Antonio Whitehall gets the ride for trainer Fred Rawson, and at that price, even a sneaking second or third pays handsomely if you structure your ticket right. This is our standout value play of the early card.

place1Hey Big UnML 5/2

Hey Big Un is rated second in the field at 74.0 and carries a 17% career win rate that speaks to reliability. Larry Munoz rides for trainer Carl Norman Anderson, and the 5/2 morning line suggests the public is already warm on this one. At that price, Hey Big Un makes plenty of sense as the place anchor, especially backing up a longshot win pick.

show3Lab RatML 7/5

Lab Rat is the public choice at 7/5 and posts a 22% career win rate — one of the better win percentages in this field — so it's hard to throw out entirely. Kerron Khelawan aboard for trainer Jared Brown gives this one a solid jockey edge. The show spot feels like a safe landing zone if you're playing conservatively, even if we think Lab Rat is a touch overbet for the top spot.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

The first three races give us a nice cross-section of today's card and a couple of angles worth tracking. In Race 1, Boujee Britches is our top pick in a 6-furlong allowance — posted at 10/1 on the morning line, this is exactly the kind of overlooked spot where TrackWiz ratings find horses the crowd underestimates. Race 2 is a 7½-furlong claimer where Master of Disguise carries the same 10/1 tag and a matching rating of 76.88, signaling a field without a dominant standout — the right pace scenario could make either of these longshots look very smart. Race 3 is where the free card gets its most confident play: Cumberland Falls opens at 7/2 with a rating of 86.35, the highest mark of the first three races, and figures to be tough to beat over 5½ furlongs on a fast-playing dirt surface.

One theme connecting these three free picks — speed and early position matter on a dry Assiniboia dirt track, and all three of our top selections profile as horses who can put themselves in good striking position without burning up early. That's the kind of pace scenario that holds up late.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

9:25 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Three horses cluster between ratings of 78 and 86 in this 5½-furlong claiming sprint, making it one of the tighter top-end matchups on the card — but our model separates Cumberland Falls as the narrow leader, despite not being the morning-line favorite.

win5Cumberland FallsML 7/2

Cumberland Falls sits atop the TrackWiz ratings for this race at 86.35 — the highest mark of any horse in the top three — and posts a 54 average speed figure that ties for the field lead. Antonio Whitehall gets the call for trainer Elton Dickey, and while the 12% career win rate is on the modest side, the raw ability numbers suggest this runner has been unlucky or lightly raced rather than simply not good enough. The 7/2 morning line represents genuine value given the model advantage.

place2Mystic SongML 8/5

Mystic Song is a serious threat at 82.86 in the TrackWiz ratings and brings a jaw-dropping 66% career win rate that dwarfs the rest of the field — this is a horse that routinely finds the winner's circle. The 8/5 morning line makes Mystic Song the public choice, and with a 54 average speed figure matching Cumberland Falls, Christopher Roy Mamdeen and trainer Carl Norman Anderson have every reason to be confident. Structuring a place ticket around Mystic Song is about as close to a safety net as you'll find today.

show1ArikaraML 9/2

Arikara rounds out our top three at a rating of 78.06 and logs a strong 35% career win rate for trainer Robert Maybin. Kerron Khelawan is aboard, and the 53 average speed figure keeps this one competitive in a race where fractions should be honest. The 9/2 morning line is a workable price to include in trifecta combinations.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 4

9:50 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Golden Buck stands out as a clear class horse in this mile allowance optional claimer — the TrackWiz model agrees with the morning line in making it the standout, but a pair of interesting alternatives lurk underneath for exotic players hunting a bigger score.

win6Golden BuckML 2/1

Golden Buck is the top-rated horse on our sheet at 88.54 — a commanding lead over the second-rated horse in the field — and trainer Mike Taphorn sends this one out with Tyrone Nelson aboard at a very fair 2/1 morning line. The 18% career win rate is solid for a horse competing at this level, and the 51 average speed figure is par for the field. When the model rating and the public price align this cleanly, it's usually the right play to take the chalk and structure your exotics around it.

place4Luka GrazieML 3/1

Luka Grazie is second on our ratings at 64.28 and goes at a respectable 3/1 morning line — fair value for a horse we like to land on the board. Sven Balroop takes the mount for trainer Ryan Desjarlais, and the one-mile distance over a route should suit a horse with enough tactical ability to sit off a pace. At 3/1 for the place, this is a comfortable ticket-builder.

show5Nu Soup for BabyML 6/1

Nu Soup for Baby rates just a hair below Luka Grazie at 64.11 and gives trainer Brian Phillips a second strong entry in the upper tier of this field with Kerron Khelawan aboard. The 16% career win rate and matching 52 average speed figure keep this one honest, and the 6/1 morning line gives show bettors a little extra cushion. Include it in trifectas as a sneaky third option behind the top two.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 5

10:15 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Welcometohollywood is the 6/5 morning-line hammer in this 6-furlong allowance optional claimer, but our TrackWiz model says the real story is an 8/1 shot sitting above it in the ratings — this race has upset written all over it for players willing to go against the crowd.

win2Mechanic SusieML 8/1

Mechanic Susie is our top-rated horse in Race 5 at 79.79 — actually a shade above the public's favorite — yet the morning line has her hanging at 8/1, a significant overlay. The 46% career win rate is exceptional and the best in this field by a wide margin, suggesting trainer Elton Dickey has a reliable winner on his hands. Rachaad Knights gets a live mount here, and for anyone willing to fade the chalk, Mechanic Susie is the TrackWiz value play of the afternoon.

place6WelcometohollywoodML 6/5

Welcometohollywood is the 6/5 public choice and it's easy to see why — a 28% career win rate, a 74.98 TrackWiz rating, and Kerron Khelawan up for trainer Jared Brown is a tough combination to beat. The horse should be right there turning for home in a sprint, and at 6/5 you're almost certainly getting money back on a place ticket. We slightly prefer Mechanic Susie on top, but Welcometohollywood is the logical safety net.

show3Rocky Bay RaeML 3/1

Rocky Bay Rae goes at 3/1 for trainer Cindy Krasner with Renaldo Cumberbatch in the irons, and the 23% career win rate offers enough reliability to justify a show position in your trifecta. The 54 average speed figure is the best in the race — one tick clear of most rivals — which hints at raw ability that could come forward in the right scenario. For exotic players building a trifecta around an 8/1 win horse, Rocky Bay Rae at 3/1 is a sensible anchor for the third slot.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 6

10:40 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

The featured stakes at 1 1/16 miles is wide open at the top — four horses rate between 69 and 80 on our sheet, and the morning-line favorite Judo is actually third on the TrackWiz model, setting up a potentially chaotic pace scenario and real overlay opportunities.

win8What's ShakinML 8/1

What's Shakin co-leads our TrackWiz ratings for this stakes at 79.79 and brings a 26% career win rate that is among the best in this eight-horse field. Kerron Khelawan — one of the busier jockeys on today's card — gets the mount for trainer Cindy Krasner, and the 8/1 morning line is a genuinely attractive price for a horse our model puts at the top. In a stakes race where the chalk is Judo at 8/5, getting our top-rated horse at five times that price is the kind of edge that pays dividends over a season.

place2WicoML 6/1

Wico rates a strong 78.07 on our sheet and is in the hunt for top honors in this field, yet goes off at 6/1 — another horse the public seems to be undervaluing. Antonio Whitehall picks up the mount for trainer Jared Brown, and the 14% career win rate at this level indicates stakes competition is familiar territory. If you're building a trifecta or exacta around What's Shakin on top, Wico is the most natural follow-up at a playable price.

show4Dominant SpiritML 4/1

Dominant Spirit rates 71.71 on our model and carries a 22% career win rate — identical to stablemate Mr. Jaws — but the 54 average speed figure gives trainer Jerry Gourneau's runner a slight edge in raw pace numbers. Neville Stephenson, who's had plenty of mounts today, rides, and the 4/1 morning line is workable for a stakes show bet. Dominant Spirit gives you a solid floor in exotics if the top two don't sort cleanly.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 7

11:05 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The closing 6-furlong claimer features a split between the public and our model — the morning-line chalk Witts Opulent Lady goes at even money but rates fourth on our sheet, while Golden Cheero at 3/1 leads the TrackWiz ratings and has a pair of big-price horses lurking as exotic fodder.

win7Golden CheeroML 3/1

Golden Cheero is our top-rated horse to close the card at 82.24, and the 3/1 morning line is a fair but not overly generous price for what our model identifies as the class of the field. Javaniel R. Patterson gets the mount for trainer Carl Norman Anderson, who has shown he can get a horse ready to run today — Hey Big Un in Race 2 was also his. The 20% career win rate combined with the highest TrackWiz rating in the race makes Golden Cheero a confident top selection to end the afternoon.

place3AmplifyML 10/1

Amplify is a genuine value angle in the place spot at 10/1 — the TrackWiz rating of 76.88 is second best in the field, yet the morning line price suggests the public isn't taking this one seriously. Dario Dalrymple rides for trainer Jerry Gourneau, who also saddles the lukewarm public choice Witts Opulent Lady, meaning the barn is split in this race and Amplify could be the live second string. At double-digit odds for the place, this is exactly the kind of price discrepancy worth exploiting in your exacta.

show6Hyper HolidayML 15/1

Hyper Holiday is a fascinating show play at 15/1 for trainer Devon Gittens with Rashawn Brewster aboard — the 66.68 TrackWiz rating is third in the field and meaningfully ahead of the morning-line favorite in our model. The 3% career win rate is a red flag for win bettors, but for board-hitting purposes, the underlying talent numbers suggest this runner may have more ability than the record shows. In a race where the public is leaning heavily on even-money Witts Opulent Lady, a show ticket on Hyper Holiday at this price could be a sharp closer to the day.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

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Seven races, a cooperative 70°F afternoon, and some genuine value scattered across the card — today at Assiniboia is worth your attention. Cumberland Falls is our strongest free play, and What's Shakin in the Race 6 stakes is the premium headline. Full pace projections, exotic ticket builds, and the complete Race 4–7 breakdown are waiting for subscribers. Good luck out there — let's find some winners.

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