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Presque Isle Downs Picks & Predictions — September 28, 2026

September 28, 20268 racesAll Presque Isle Downs picks

Presque Isle Downs is back in action on Monday, September 28, serving up an 8-race all-dirt card under overcast skies and a crisp 63°F. Conditions are stable — no rain in the picture — which should keep the surface playing honest and reward horses with back-class and consistent speed figures.

Today's card leans heavily on claiming and maiden company, but don't let that fool you into thinking it's a throwaway afternoon. There's real money to be made in fields like these, where class angles and pace scenarios sort out fast. Our TrackWiz ratings found a handful of standouts worth circling, and a couple of intriguing prices that could pay nicely.

Three races are open to all readers, with full breakdowns available right now. The remaining five are part of our premium full-card analysis — and on a card with multiple wide-open maiden races and a juicy Allowance Optional Claiming spot, trust us, you'll want the whole picture.

Best Bets

Race 1

7:30 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A clear class standout towers over this six-furlong claiming opener, but the middle of the field is tightly bunched in the ratings and capable of stealing exotics.

win5Lady HamiltonML 5/2

Lady Hamilton (5) carries a TrackWiz rating of 87.81 — a full 21 points clear of the next-best horse in the field — and that kind of separation in a claiming opener is hard to ignore. Hector Rafael Diaz, Jr. gets the call, and with a 15% career win rate for her connections, she's not just a paper tiger. At 5/2 on the morning line, she's respected but not overbet, making her a solid win anchor for your tickets.

place3Red Hot SparkML 3/1

Red Hot Spark (3) checks in with the second-highest TrackWiz rating at 66.71 and draws Taylor Kingsley, who is active throughout today's card. The 3/1 morning line reflects public respect, and a 13% career win rate in claiming company suggests this horse knows how to compete when the lights are on.

show1Float AwayML 9/2

Float Away (1) rates out at 64.53 — just a tick below Red Hot Spark — and Ciera Pruitt gives this one a competent handler from the rail. The 9/2 morning line offers a little extra juice for show tickets or exotics, and a 21% career win rate is quietly the best in the field among the non-favorite runners.

Race 2

7:57 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Knicks Factor sets up as a legitimate favorite with a commanding rating edge, but Rock Tune and Time Leap loom as live threats to complicate the exacta.

win1Knicks FactorML 7/2

Knicks Factor (1) brings a 25% career win rate — best in the field by a wide margin — and backs it up with the top TrackWiz rating of 86.35. Addiel J. Ayala rides, and this horse's profile screams confidence at the claiming level. At 7/2, there's still enough value here to use as a win single if you're building a multi-race sequence.

place2Rock TuneML 6/1

Rock Tune (2) rates second overall at 80.78 and brings Walber Alencar into the irons. The 6/1 morning line is intriguing — our analysis has this horse much closer than the public is likely to price it, which makes it a strong place play and a worthwhile exacta partner underneath Knicks Factor.

show4Time LeapML 4/1

Time Leap (4) comes in at a 79.84 TrackWiz rating with a solid 20% career win rate, giving trainer Kelsey Danner a live runner in the back half of the card. At 4/1, the morning line keeps this one honest, and Gaddiel A. Martinez is a reliable pilot. The combination of rating, win percentage, and jockey makes this a dependable show leg.

Race 3

8:24 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

Two horses separate themselves sharply from the rest of this mile-and-seventy-yard claiming field, but La Crema at 6/1 could make the exacta very interesting.

win5Cocktail KissesML 5/2

Cocktail Kisses (5) tops the field with an 87.28 TrackWiz rating and matches La Crema with the best average speed figure among horses going long today at 53. Trainer S. Matthew Kintz also saddles Love Her Lots, signaling confidence in deploying his best horse here. Taylor Kingsley gets the mount, and a 19% career win rate reinforces that this horse has done it before at this level.

place6La CremaML 6/1

La Crema (6) is the most interesting horse in the race — she carries the second-highest rating at 82.71 and posts a 20% career win rate that's best in the field. Gaddiel A. Martinez rides for Elena Bondar, and at 6/1, the morning line undervalues what our numbers say. If the pace gets hot early, a closer profile could get a dream setup.

show3Tour JeteML 4/1

Tour Jete (3) is the only other horse in the field to post an above-average speed figure and a rating above 70. Trainer Lance Stokes sends this one out at 4/1 with Antonio A. Gallardo aboard, and a 14% career win rate in a field this wide means it figures to be competitive at the end. Use it to round out your trifecta tickets.

Our three free best bets today center on the early-card dirt sprints and the first route of the day. Lady Hamilton draws our top rating (87.81) among the free picks and opens at a workable 5/2 morning line in Race 1 — she looks like the one to beat going six furlongs. Knicks Factor follows in Race 2 over the same sprint distance, sitting at 7/2 on the morning line with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating that suggests the odds may slightly underestimate him. Then in Race 3, we stretch out to a mile and 70 yards where Cocktail Kisses (87.28 rating, 5/2 ML) figures to appreciate the added ground.

A common thread across these three: the pace scenario on this track today sets up favorably for horses that can press or stalk early on a surface that hasn't been softened by rain. All three of our free picks profile as exactly that type. These aren't exotic moonshots — these are the kind of grounded, data-backed plays you can build a card around.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

8:51 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden special weight where nobody has won before — this is a handicapper's puzzle, and our numbers point to a surprising overlay leading the way.

win6ChalantML 6/1

Chalant (6) is the play here despite a 6/1 morning line that suggests the public isn't fully on board yet. The TrackWiz rating of 82.71 is by far the highest in this maiden field, and Israel O. Rodriguez gets the assignment for trainer Scooter Davis. In a race where nobody has a win on their record, separation in the ratings matters enormously — and Chalant has it.

place5Miss WatermelonML 3/1

Miss Watermelon (5) carries a 64.27 rating and draws Gaddiel A. Martinez, a jockey who's been busy and effective across today's card. Trainer Kelsey Danner sends this one out as the 3/1 morning line favorite, reflecting public confidence even if our numbers have Chalant ahead. She's fast enough to earn a check, and the morning line favorite in a maiden special weight deserves respect.

show2Explosive RunML 7/2

Explosive Run (2) posts the highest average speed figure in the race at 56 and checks in with a 55.83 TrackWiz rating — good enough for third in this field. Antonio A. Gallardo rides for Todd M. Beattie at 7/2, and raw speed is a real asset in a six-furlong maiden sprint where pace can be the difference between first and third.

Race 5

9:18 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

Three horses are knotted tightly at the top of the TrackWiz ratings in this maiden claiming route, setting up a legitimate battle that could go any of several ways.

win1Loan Me a DimeML 4/1

Loan Me a Dime (1) tops the field with an 85.62 TrackWiz rating and draws Antonio A. Gallardo — one of the busiest and most productive jockeys on today's card. Ron G. Potts trains, and at 4/1, the morning line is fair for a horse our numbers identify as the class of this maiden claiming field. The rail post in a longer route can be a gift if the horse breaks cleanly.

place4Trophy HusbandML 9/2

Trophy Husband (4) slots in just behind Loan Me a Dime at 83.86 and is trained by Juan Arriagada with Israel O. Rodriguez in the irons. The 9/2 morning line makes this a touch of value for place bettors — a horse our analysis grades this closely to the win pick rarely goes off at that price. Well worth including in exactas.

show3SnowstormML 7/2

Snowstorm (3) rounds out a very tight trio at the top with an 83.25 rating for trainer S. Matthew Kintz. Martina Rojas rides, and at 7/2, this is actually a short price for a maiden — but the rating justifies it. If the pace plays out over this longer distance, a horse with this kind of figure can get swept up in a close finish for third.

Race 6

9:45 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

King Mendelssohn stands out on raw numbers in this allowance optional claiming field, but Shadow Factor's strong career win rate makes the exacta genuinely compelling.

win5King MendelssohnML 5/2

King Mendelssohn (5) carries the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 87.81 — a meaningful edge in an AOC where every other contender rates in the 60s or below. A 25% career win rate underlines that this horse has been here before and delivered. Israel O. Rodriguez gets the call for the Scooter Davis barn, and at 5/2, you're not getting rich, but you are getting the right horse.

place3Shadow FactorML 3/1

Shadow Factor (3) is the most intriguing exacta play in the race — a 31% career win rate is the best figure in the entire field, and she pairs with Ciera Pruitt for trainer Ron G. Potts. The 3/1 morning line is fair, and an average speed figure of 56 is the highest posted by any horse today. If she's on her game, she'll be competitive deep into the stretch.

show7HectorML 10/1

Hector (7) is a sneaky inclusion at 10/1 morning line — the TrackWiz rating of 63.24 is actually respectable in this field, and a 22% career win rate for trainer Ron G. Potts is quietly one of the best in the group. Scott Spieth picks up the mount, and at double digits, there's real show value here for bettors looking to pad their exotics at a price.

Race 7

10:12 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Sealand commands the ratings in a six-furlong claiming race, but Frenchman James looms as a significant price play with the second-best figure at a generous 10/1.

win2SealandML 7/2

Sealand (2) leads all horses with an 82.98 TrackWiz rating and draws Gaddiel A. Martinez — a jockey who has been live on multiple races tonight. Trainer S. Matthew Kintz has had a solid book of horses throughout this card, and a 14% career win rate in claiming company is a functional baseline. At 7/2, this is our best bet of the race.

place3Frenchman JamesML 10/1

Frenchman James (3) is the value angle here — a 76.88 TrackWiz rating that's second in the field, combined with a 10/1 morning line, is the kind of disconnect our analysis loves to exploit. Rosario Montanez rides for Michael C. Pappada, and a 12% career win rate in this spot isn't a red flag. Toss this one in your exactas wide and let the price do the work.

show4Party At the BeachML 6/1

Party At the Beach (4) checks in with a 62.08 rating and gets Martina Rojas for trainer John Fennessy, who also saddles Epic Summer in this race. The 6/1 morning line is workable for show tickets, and while the 5% career win rate is the lowest among our picks, pace positioning and a competitive figure make this a reasonable trifecta anchor from the outside.

Race 8

10:39 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

A big, sprawling twelve-horse field goes a mile and seventy yards to close the card — the wide field creates chaos, but our top-rated horse is hiding in plain sight at a playable price.

win11Golden DogecoinML 6/1

Golden Dogecoin (11) tops this large field with a TrackWiz rating of 82.71 and draws Antonio A. Gallardo, who has been one of the most effective jockeys throughout tonight's program. Trainer S. Matthew Kintz has shown up with live horses all evening, and at 6/1, this is a legitimate overlay given the rating edge. In a field this big, having the best number matters — ride it.

place3Too Much FunML 3/1

Too Much Fun (3) rates second in the field at 75.30 and brings a 7% career win rate that might look modest, but Mike Allen in the irons and trainer John Fennessy make this a competitive combination in a claiming route. The 3/1 morning line reflects public respect, and the average speed figure of 53 fits this distance comfortably. A reliable place leg for your exotics.

show2Lady of LordsML 4/1

Lady of Lords (2) checks in with a 72.94 TrackWiz rating and carries Gaddiel A. Martinez for Brandon L. Kulp. A 16% career win rate is the best among our three picks in this race, and at 4/1, she's reasonably priced. In a twelve-horse field going long, experience and consistency matter — Lady of Lords has both relative to the bottom half of this field.

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Bottom line: Lady Hamilton, Knicks Factor, and Cocktail Kisses are your free best bets to anchor the early card at Presque Isle today. The real intrigue builds through the back half of the card, where King Mendelssohn headlines a competitive allowance field and two wide-open maiden routes set up nicely for exotic plays. Full pace projections, exotic tickets, and every angle are waiting for subscribers — head to /pricing to unlock the complete TrackWiz breakdown. Good luck out there.

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