Unlock the other 5 races on today's card, plus AI ratings on every runner and SmartBet ticket construction.

The winner is in our top 4 picks 75% of the time, across 17 tracks.

Daily Picks

Presque Isle Downs Picks & Predictions — September 29, 2026

September 29, 20268 racesAll Presque Isle Downs picks

Presque Isle Downs is rolling out an 8-race all-dirt card this Tuesday, and with temperatures sitting at a comfortable 69°F under partly cloudy skies, conditions look near-ideal for fast times on the main track. No weather excuses today — whatever you see on paper is likely what you'll get at the wire.

The card leans heavily on claiming and allowance company, which is bread-and-butter handicapping territory. Class jumpers, class droppers, and pace scenarios are the puzzle pieces to sort through. TrackWiz analysis has identified strong top picks across the board, with ratings clustering in the mid-to-upper 80s in several spots — a sign of some genuinely competitive fields worth digging into.

Three races are fully unlocked for all readers, and five premium races round out the full card for subscribers. Let's break it down.

Best Bets

Race 1

7:30 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Trainer Kevin Rice sends out two horses in this 6.5-furlong dirt claimer, creating an interesting stable dynamic, but it's the top TrackWiz rating that points to a clear top choice in what shapes up as a beatable field.

win5Pancho Slips AwayML 3/1

Pancho Slips Away earns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 87.08 — a meaningful gap over the next closest rival — and goes postward at a workable 3/1 morning line. With a 16% career win rate and trainer Kevin Rice already having a read on this horse from the barn, the connections look dialed in. At 6.5 furlongs on dirt, this looks like a comfortable setup, and the rating edge here is simply too hard to ignore.

place1Valid SenseML 4/1

Valid Sense opens at 4/1 on the morning line and backs that up with a solid 78.12 TrackWiz rating — second best in the field by a decent margin. The 10% career win rate is modest, but Antonio Gallardo gets the call and the number suggests this horse consistently runs well enough to grab a piece. Include Valid Sense underneath in exactas and trifectas.

show3Ransom MoneyML 7/2

Ransom Money slots in as our show horse with a 66.35 rating and a 13% career win rate under trainer Debbie Schaber. The 7/2 morning line makes this a fair-priced third option, and with an average speed figure of 55, Ransom Money figures to be competitive enough to hit the board in a field that doesn't have a runaway top choice.

Race 2

7:57 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A tightly bunched speed field at 6.5 furlongs on dirt with nearly every horse posting the same average speed figure — pace could get honest early, which opens the door for a closer or the most talented horse to move through late.

win4Turf CatML 3/1

Turf Cat tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.08 and draws the 3/1 morning line, making this one of the more attractively priced top picks on the card. Trainer Pavel Matejka and jockey Gaddiel A. Martinez team up here, a pairing worth noting. With a 20% career win rate and a ratings edge over every rival, Turf Cat looks like the class of this claiming field.

place3Showdown KingML 5/2

Showdown King sits at 75.17 in the ratings and gets the 5/2 morning line — actually the shortest price in the field despite ranking second in our numbers. The 21% career win rate under trainer Michael C. Pappada is respectable, and Rosario Montanez has been active at this meet. If the pace scenario sets up for a presser, Showdown King is well-placed to capitalize.

show1Blazing BoML 7/2

Blazing Bo brings the best career win rate in the field at 28% and opens at 7/2. Trainer Ron G. Potts puts Israel O. Rodriguez aboard, and while the 65.12 rating trails the top two, that win percentage suggests Bo knows how to close the deal. A legitimate board candidate in a race where the pace could set up for multiple runners.

Race 3

8:24 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Six-furlong sprinting can produce chaos in claiming company, and this race has a clear standout on paper who's being let go at a price — a value opportunity on a horse whose rating jumps off the page compared to the field.

win6Ryu MoML 9/2

Ryu Mo carries an 84.90 TrackWiz rating — the best in this field by more than 20 points — and goes off at 9/2 morning line, which is generous given that advantage. With the highest average speed figure in the race at 56, this horse profiles as faster than anyone else in the field on a raw numbers basis. Trainer Tim Girten puts Antonio Gallardo up, and at those odds, Ryu Mo is our top play of the early races.

place1Stanz ComingML 3/1

Stanz Coming opens as the 3/1 second choice and backs that price with a 64.43 rating and a 16% career win rate. Trainer J. Michael Rogers keeps Victor Severino in the irons, a local pairing that knows this track well. Stanz Coming figures to be forwardly placed early in a sprint and could grab the place spot even if Ryu Mo proves too good.

show4FictionML 8/1

Fiction opens at a generous 8/1 despite a 53.41 TrackWiz rating that ranks third in this field. The career win rate of 16% is solid for a claiming horse, and trainer John N. Poole sends out Elijah Greenidge. The 8/1 morning line makes Fiction a sneaky exotic inclusion — if the pace gets hot up front, a closer with a double-digit price could sneak into the trifecta.

The first three races on the card are on the house. Pancho Slips Away (3/1 morning line) opens the day over 6½ furlongs in a claiming sprint, drawing a TrackWiz rating of 87.08 — the same figure posted by Turf Cat in Race 2, which runs the identical trip. When two horses in back-to-back sprints share a top rating like that, pace scenario and post position become the tiebreakers, so keep an eye on how the early speed shapes up. Race 3 shifts to an even 6 furlongs, where Ryu Mo (9/2) checks in at 84.90 — a slight step down in rating but an interesting price if the market is sleeping on a pace mismatch.

The early dirt sprints at Presque Isle can favor horses with early tactical speed when the track is firm, and today's dry, mild weather suggests the surface should be playing fair. Horses that can press or stalk the early pace without burning up in the first quarter are worth prioritizing across all three free races.

Send me tomorrow's free Presque Isle Downs card before post time.

Free picks in your inbox each morning. No card required, unsubscribe anytime.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

8:51 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

Maiden Special Weight over six furlongs is always a puzzle — several horses here are first-time starters with no speed figures on record, making this a race where trainer reputation and early workout buzz carry extra weight.

win1HadidML 3/1

Hadid earns the top TrackWiz rating in this maiden field at 56.67 and draws the 3/1 morning line — the lowest price on the board for good reason. Trainer Arnaud Delacour is a well-regarded name in the Mid-Atlantic region, and pairing with Israel O. Rodriguez gives this horse a confident tactical rider. With an average speed figure of 56, Hadid has already shown something in company and gets our top nod.

place7Lil' SwayML 7/2

Lil' Sway slots in at 7/2 with a 55.83 TrackWiz rating — just a hair behind Hadid in our numbers — and draws trainer Timothy E. Hamm with Hector Rafael Diaz, Jr. in the saddle. An average speed of 54 shows some form, and the price is fair for a horse that could easily reverse the order with Hadid. Lil' Sway is a strong exacta partner with our top pick.

show5Hot for the GameML 9/2

Hot for the Game opens at 9/2 with a 54.17 rating and gets the call from trainer Ron G. Potts with Taylor Kingsley up. No speed figure on record means we're projecting here, but the morning line suggests the connections like this horse's chances. In a wide-open maiden field, 9/2 on a horse sitting third in our ratings is worth a spot in the trifecta.

Race 5

9:18 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Allowance optional claiming company at 6.5 furlongs brings a legitimate top selection whose rating stands well clear of the field — but the race has enough pace to keep things honest, and the value around the top pick makes for interesting exotic opportunities.

win3Calvin's RideML 5/2

Calvin's Ride tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 — the highest mark on today's card for a non-claiming horse — and comes in at a fair 5/2 morning line. A 31% career win rate is excellent and makes Calvin's Ride one of the more reliable performers on paper today. Trainer Kevin Rice pairs with Gaddiel A. Martinez, and at this level with that kind of win percentage, this is a strong best bet candidate.

place4Rocket DragonML 9/2

Rocket Dragon rates out at 72.79 and opens at 9/2 in what looks like a solid each-way play. The 17% career win rate is respectable, and the 56 average speed figure is the highest in this field — meaning Rocket Dragon has run fast numbers before. Trainer Nestor R. Rivera gives Angel I. Diaz the mount, and if Calvin's Ride draws the attention of the pace, Rocket Dragon could swoop in for the place.

show6Jimmy the HatML 7/2

Jimmy the Hat gets a 7/2 price despite ranking third in our ratings at 67.42 — a horse who's clearly competitive in this company. The 21% career win rate under trainer Brendan Gilmartin is solid, and Mike Allen in the saddle is a workmanlike booking. Use Jimmy the Hat to round out the trifecta underneath our top two selections.

Race 6

9:45 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

A seven-horse Starter Optional Claiming field going a route of ground on dirt — two horses dominate the TrackWiz ratings and figure to set up a fascinating showdown, but at least one big-priced runner has the profile to sneak into the exotics.

win6Haut Les CoeursML 7/2

Haut Les Coeurs rates 86.35 — tops in this field — and draws a reasonable 7/2 morning line despite being our top selection. Trainer Michael C. Pappada doubles up in this race, and putting Israel O. Rodriguez on the higher-rated of the two entries tells you which one the barn prefers. A 17% career win rate and an average speed of 54 fit well over this route distance, and the TrackWiz edge here is clear.

place2Little MarthaML 9/5

Little Martha is the morning line favorite at 9/5 and carries an 82.73 rating — second best in the field. A 30% career win rate is outstanding and the kind of number that usually earns a shorter price. Trainer Tamara Housel and jockey Walber Alencar have this horse in good form, and while we lean toward Haut Les Coeurs on ratings, Little Martha is absolutely capable of flipping the result. Don't leave her off your tickets.

show5Don't Tell KellyML 5/2

Don't Tell Kelly opens at 5/2 with a 71.42 rating and the best average speed figure in the race at 56. Trainer Murray L. Rojas sends out Antonio Gallardo, and that 20% career win rate shows this mare competes consistently. She's the logical third wheel in a race that looks like it'll come down to a battle between the top two, and her speed figure edge suggests she can hold her own at this level.

Race 7

10:12 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Six furlongs of Allowance Optional Claiming with a standout whose career win percentage is the stuff of closers' dreams — but the class of the field has company from a couple of 70-plus rated rivals that could make this tighter than the morning line suggests.

win2Thank You AmyML 5/2

Thank You Amy is a flat-out standout in this field, combining an 87.81 TrackWiz rating with a 40% career win rate — that kind of strike rate at allowance level is remarkably rare and demands respect. Trainer Ron G. Potts sends out Addiel J. Ayala at 5/2, and everything about this profile screams winner. The rating leads the field by more than eight points, and with that conversion percentage, Thank You Amy is our most confident pick of the night.

place4Inspire CourageML 3/1

Inspire Courage rates 79.52 and draws 3/1 on the morning line, which looks like reasonable value for a horse sitting comfortably second in our figures. Trainer S. Matthew Kintz puts Scott Spieth in the saddle, and the 16% career win rate at this level shows consistent effort. If Thank You Amy gets tested on the front end, Inspire Courage could be sitting in a perfect stalking position to claim the place.

show6Wherever We AreML 9/2

Wherever We Are opens at 9/2 with a 78.92 rating — just a fraction behind Inspire Courage in our numbers — and brings a 25% career win rate to the table. Trainer J. Michael Rogers and Martina Rojas are a familiar combo at this meet, and that strike rate as a career winner means this horse knows how to finish. The 9/2 price on a horse this close to the top of the ratings makes Wherever We Are a smart trifecta piece.

Race 8

10:39 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

The nightcap is a seven-horse claiming route at 1 1/16 miles, and the top two TrackWiz ratings are separated by less than a point — this is as close to a pick-em between two horses as you'll see on the card, making exacta boxing the smart play.

win3Speaker's LobbyML 7/2

Speaker's Lobby edges out the top rating at 85.93 by the thinnest of margins and draws a fair 7/2 morning line. Trainer S. Matthew Kintz puts Gaddiel A. Martinez up — a pairing that already connected in Race 7 tonight — and the route distance of 1 1/16 miles suits a horse with this kind of sustained speed profile. The 9% career win rate is the one question mark, but the TrackWiz number says this horse is running better than that figure suggests.

place2Grab the SparkML 4/1

Grab the Spark rates 85.62 — nearly identical to our top pick — and opens at 4/1. A 16% career win rate is more in line with what you'd expect from a horse at this level, and trainer John Fennessy puts Rosario Montanez on board. The margin between Speaker's Lobby and Grab the Spark in our ratings is razor-thin, so boxing these two in the exacta is the prudent approach to this race.

show1Race for CoverML 3/1

Race for Cover sits third in our ratings at 74.47 and draws the 3/1 morning line — making this the shortest-priced horse in the race despite ranking well behind the top two in our numbers. Trainer Michael C. Pappada's barn has multiple entrants tonight and clearly has a feel for this surface. Rodriguez in the irons and a 16% career win rate make Race for Cover a legitimate show selection to anchor the trifecta.

Premium Content

Get the Full Card Analysis

Unlock expert picks for every race, detailed speed figures, trainer angles, and our SmartBet recommendations.

View Plans Sign In

Today's Presque Isle card has real teeth — tight morning lines, dual top-rated sprinters in the free races, and a premium slate headlined by Calvin's Ride and Thank You Amy sharing the day's best TrackWiz number. The free picks in Races 1–3 give every reader a solid starting point, and the full-card breakdown is waiting for subscribers. Good luck at the windows.

← All Presque Isle Downs picks & predictions

You're reading 3 of 8 races free