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Presque Isle Downs Picks & Predictions — September 23, 2026

September 23, 20268 racesAll Presque Isle Downs picks

It's a crisp, comfortable Wednesday at Presque Isle Downs — partly cloudy skies and 66°F make for near-ideal conditions on the main track. No weather excuses today. If a horse runs flat, it's on them.

We've got an 8-race all-dirt card to dig into, stretching from a quick 5½-furlong sprint in Race 5 all the way out to a mile and 70 yards in Races 6, 7, and 8. That mix of sprints and routes gives us some nice variety and a few spots where pace scenarios could really shake things up.

A couple of interesting names jump off the page early. Danefield is our top pick in the opener at a tasty 8/1 morning line — that's the kind of price that gets our attention. And over in the maiden ranks, Hide N Watch and Lazy Y Legacy both land in the free analysis today, which means you don't need a subscription to see why TrackWiz likes them. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

7:30 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Carol Skawinski sends out two live runners in a six-furlong claiming opener, creating a potential intra-barn showdown that the morning line doesn't fully reflect.

win3DanefieldML 8/1

Danefield is our top selection at a juicy 8/1 morning line, and the TrackWiz rating of 79.79 — highest in the field — tells the real story. Mike Allen gets the call, and with a 15% career win rate, Danefield shows the kind of consistent form that can sneak up on a short field. The average speed figure of 55 matches the top tier of this claiming field, and at those odds, the value is hard to ignore on six furlongs of Presque Isle dirt.

place6He's On the FlyML 7/2

He's On the Fly runs for the same Skawinski barn and carries a TrackWiz rating of 79.52 — nearly identical to our win pick, which tells you this one isn't far behind. A 16% career win rate backs up the talent level, and Martina Rojas gives the horse a capable rider at 7/2 on the morning line. This is a legit place contender that could easily flip the result with the right trip.

show4Wrote in StoneML 9/2

Wrote in Stone at 9/2 makes plenty of sense underneath with a rating of 78.06 and a 17% career win rate — the highest in the field. Alex Gonzalez is an experienced hand for trainer John Fennessy, and the average speed of 55 keeps this one right in the thick of things. In a race with three horses bunched tightly in the ratings, Wrote in Stone is a safe exotic anchor.

Race 2

7:57 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claiming mile on dirt where nobody has broken their maiden yet, but two horses stand distinctly clear on our ratings — making this less of a mystery than the conditions suggest.

win2Lazy Y LegacyML 5/2

Lazy Y Legacy tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.81, the highest mark in this maiden claiming field by a healthy margin, and the morning line of 5/2 suggests the market agrees. Antonio A. Gallardo picks up the mount for trainer Aaron M. West, and the 53 average speed figure edges most rivals. In a race full of first-time winners searching for their moment, Lazy Y Legacy has the profile most likely to break through.

place6Rewardann'swarriorML 7/2

Rewardann'swarrior sits just a tick below with a rating of 86.35 and shares the same average speed figure of 52 as most of the field, but that rating gap over the middle tier is meaningful. Gaddiel A. Martinez is a capable jockey who knows how to get position in a maiden race, and trainer Ron G. Potts also has Fur Elise in the field — suggesting a stable that's comfortable with this level. At 7/2, the place price on Rewardann'swarrior should offer solid value.

show3ManonML 4/1

Manon checks in third on our ratings at 68.29 and represents a meaningful step up over the rest of the field after the top two. Trainer Keith C. Dickey sends Martina Rojas out at 4/1 morning line, and the 52 average speed figure keeps Manon competitive at a mile on dirt. When two horses stand out on top, it's worth anchoring your show wager to the next-best option for exacta and trifecta coverage.

Race 3

8:24 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Dirt

Maiden Special Weight action at a mile with a field of first-time or unproven runners — Hide N Watch carries the strongest rating and the backing of the morning line favorite at 3/1, but a pair of longer-priced threats could liven up the exotics.

win4Hide N WatchML 3/1

Hide N Watch is our top play here with a TrackWiz rating of 70.56, clear at the top of this MSW field, and trainer Timothy E. Hamm clearly has this horse ready judging by the 54 average speed figure — tied for the field's best alongside Matowy. Hector Rafael Diaz Jr. gets the mount, and the 3/1 morning line confirms the market respect. In maiden special weight races, raw ability tends to show through, and Hide N Watch's ratings edge is the most reliable angle in the field.

place5Lost in the FightML 8/1

Lost in the Fight is the TrackWiz value play here at 8/1 — a horse with a 56.7 rating who is being overlooked by morning line odds that feel steep for the talent level. Taylor Kingsley rides for trainer Paul McEntee, who also has Baytown Da Vinci in the field, and a 53 average speed figure is competitive at this distance. If Hide N Watch controls the pace, a closer like Lost in the Fight could rally into the place spot.

show2Grande DunesML 7/2

Grande Dunes at 7/2 is the logical third piece of this puzzle, carrying a rating of 55.83 and the backing of trainer Eoin G. Harty, whose operation consistently produces competitive maiden runners. Luke Hoskins gets the mount and a 52 average speed figure keeps Grande Dunes right in the hunt over a mile. Solid exotic inclusion to fill out your trifectas behind the top two.

Three races are fully unlocked for all readers today — Races 1, 2, and 3 — and they cover a nice range of conditions. Race 1 is a 6-furlong claiming sprint where our top pick Danefield sits at 8/1 on the morning line. On a day with good footing and no surface excuses, we think the price is wrong on this one. Race 2 stretches out to a mile in a maiden claiming field where Lazy Y Legacy posted the top TrackWiz rating on the entire card at 87.81 — that's a number that commands respect at 5/2. Race 3 is a maiden special weight at a mile, a notch up in class, and Hide N Watch draws our top call at 3/1.

One thread connecting these free picks: all three races are on a dirt surface that figures to be consistent and fair today. No bias concerns jumping out at us. In maiden company especially, clean footing tends to let class and ability show through — which is exactly why we feel good about the ratings backing Lazy Y Legacy and Hide N Watch in Races 2 and 3.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

8:51 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Courageous Ari looks like a class standout in this 6.5-furlong claiming field, but Shaunnasaprilfool's eye-catching 21% career win rate adds a wrinkle worth noting for exotic players.

win1Courageous AriML 4/1

Courageous Ari owns the top TrackWiz rating at 85.62 — a full nine points clear of the next rival — and the morning line of 4/1 is fair value for a horse this dominant on the figures. Gaddiel A. Martinez takes the mount for trainer Carol A. Skawinski, who has been a consistent presence on the card today. A 55 average speed figure and 12% career win rate round out a profile that screams best bet in this spot.

place4Sparkling SilverML 7/2

Sparkling Silver has a 76.54 rating and a 54 average speed figure that makes her a natural runner-up threat at 7/2. Mike Allen rides for trainer John Fennessy, and a 10% career win rate is respectable at this claiming level. When a clear top horse sets the pace, a horse like Sparkling Silver with consistent figures is exactly the type to snag the place spot on the way home.

show6ShaunnasaprilfoolML 6/1

Shaunnasaprilfool is the angle play in this field — a 21% career win rate is the highest of any horse on today's card in a non-maiden race, suggesting this is a horse that genuinely knows how to finish in the money. Martina Rojas picks up the mount for trainer Michael C. Pappada, and while the 68.39 rating sits third in the field, that win rate tells a story the numbers alone don't fully capture. At 6/1 morning line, she's worth a look in trifectas.

Race 5

9:18 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

She's Lit dominates this nine-horse 5.5-furlong claiming field on the TrackWiz ratings, but the pace scenario with multiple front-runners could create a contested early tempo that sets up a closer.

win4She's LitML 3/1

She's Lit is the standout here with a rating of 87.08 — the highest in the field by a wide margin — and a 55 average speed figure that matches the top tier of this sprint. Gaddiel A. Martinez rides for trainer Randall R. Russell, a sharp barn at this meet, and the 3/1 morning line is a fair price for the figures advantage. In a 5.5-furlong dirt sprint, raw speed tends to dominate, and She's Lit brings plenty of it.

place6Name DropperML 5/2

Name Dropper is an intriguing place contender at 5/2 with a 56.4 rating that sits second in the field. Taylor Kingsley picks up a live mount for Timothy E. Hamm, and while the zero career win rate raises a flag, the odds suggest there's something here the market likes. If She's Lit takes care of herself on the front end, Name Dropper has the rating to grab the place.

show9Princess CharmingML 7/2

Princess Charming at 7/2 rounds out our exotics with a 51.54 rating and a 54 average speed figure consistent with the mid-tier of this field. Rosario Montanez rides for trainer Scooter Davis, and a 7% career win rate suggests this horse gets into the money with some regularity. With nine horses going 5.5 furlongs, there'll be traffic early — Princess Charming's profile fits a horse that could benefit from a pace-heated early half.

Race 6

9:45 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

Gun Policy carries the top rating and steps into a nine-horse claiming mile-and-70 field where the distance tests stamina — but Maybern's jaw-dropping 40% career win rate makes this a two-horse race worth structuring your tickets around.

win3Gun PolicyML 5/2

Gun Policy is our top selection with the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 87.81, tied for the best mark of any claiming horse on today's full card. Addiel J. Ayala takes the mount for trainer Kevin Rice, and the 5/2 morning line reflects market confidence in a horse whose 20% career win rate at route distances shows durability. The 53 average speed figure keeps Gun Policy in the mix over the longer trip, and the ratings edge here is too clear to fade.

place2MaybernML 3/1

Maybern is the race's most compelling angle — a 40% career win rate is extraordinary and suggests a horse that routinely competes at or near the top of its field. Ciera Pruitt gets the mount for trainer Brandon L. Kulp, and the 55 average speed figure is the highest in this field. At 3/1 morning line, Maybern is a legitimate win threat who lands here as our place pick only because Gun Policy's rating edge is so pronounced.

show6Irish StoneML 8/1

Irish Stone sneaks into our show spot at 8/1 with a 54.29 rating that sits just above the middle of a nine-horse field. David Delgado takes the mount for trainer W. John Bourke, and a 53 average speed figure is right in the pack at this distance. The 8/1 morning line makes Irish Stone a value play in trifectas — a horse that could easily get a piece at a price that rewards exotic players willing to stretch.

Race 7

10:12 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

An allowance mile-and-70 that looks like Outsider's race to lose — the TrackWiz rating and career win rate both scream top-notch, but Triple Start and Diver give the exotics enough depth to build around.

win5OutsiderML 3/1

Outsider is the class of this allowance field with a TrackWiz rating of 87.08 and a 33% career win rate — that's an elite figure for any horse at any level, and it stands out immediately in this spot. Gaddiel A. Martinez gets the mount for Randall R. Russell, a trainer who's had multiple live runners on today's card, and a 55 average speed figure is the best in the field. At 3/1, Outsider is worth top investment as our best bet of the race.

place2Triple StartML 7/2

Triple Start brings a 79.43 rating and a 23% career win rate to the table, making this one a genuine contender in an allowance field that isn't as deep as it looks. Walber Alencar rides for John Fennessy, a trainer with multiple entries tonight, and the 7/2 morning line reflects solid market interest. In a race where the top two are this clearly separated from the pack, Triple Start is the natural place horse.

show7DiverML 6/1

Diver rounds out the ticket at 6/1 with a 73.48 rating — third-best in the field — and an 18% career win rate that shows this horse has hit the board consistently at this level. Rosario Montanez picks up the mount for trainer Brandon L. Kulp, and the 53 average speed figure keeps Diver competitive over the route trip. At 6/1, the show price is attractive and the rating supports a trifecta play behind the top two.

Race 8

10:39 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

Hard Mission is the TrackWiz overlay of the night — the top-rated horse in this nine-horse claiming route going off at 8/1, which creates a genuine value opportunity for players willing to trust the numbers over the morning line.

win4Hard MissionML 8/1

Hard Mission tops this claiming field with a 79.79 TrackWiz rating despite carrying an 8/1 morning line — that's the definition of an overlay, and it's the kind of spot where our analysis stands apart from the crowd. Israel O. Rodriguez gets the mount for trainer Juan Arriagada, and a 15% career win rate shows Hard Mission is no stranger to the winner's circle. The 53 average speed figure is competitive for this route, and when the rating says one thing and the odds say another, you lean on the rating.

place2R AdmiralML 4/1

R Admiral is the logical backup at 4/1 with a 72.17 rating — second in the field — and a 13% career win rate that speaks to consistent form over routes. Mike Allen rides for John Fennessy, one of the more active trainers at Presque Isle this evening, and the 54 average speed figure matches Hard Mission. If Hard Mission fires at the overlay, R Admiral makes an ideal place companion in your exotics.

show5J P HellishML 5/2

J P Hellish brings a 65.08 rating and the field's second-highest career win rate at 23%, suggesting a horse that competes hard and hits the board regularly at this claiming level. Scott Spieth rides for trainer George S. Bush, and the 5/2 morning line makes this the market's top choice — which means the show pool might be thin and the payout underwhelming, but as a trifecta anchor behind our top two, J P Hellish is a safe inclusion.

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Bottom line: Danefield at 8/1 is the kind of morning-line overlay that makes Race 1 worth a serious look, and Lazy Y Legacy's top rating across the entire card in Race 2 makes it a strong starting point for early multi-race tickets. Hide N Watch rounds out the free picks in Race 3. For Races 4–8 — including pace breakdowns, exotic structures, and our full take on She's Lit, Gun Policy, Outsider, and Hard Mission — the complete TrackWiz analysis is available to subscribers. Check out /pricing and get the full card before post time.

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