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Presque Isle Downs Picks & Predictions — September 22, 2026

September 22, 20268 racesAll Presque Isle Downs picks

This card ran on September 22, 2026.

Best bets at Presque Isle Downs, September 22, 2026

Race 12Last MoveML 8/13:30 PM EDT

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It's a wet Tuesday at Presque Isle Downs — rain is falling, temperatures are sitting at 64°F, and that dirt surface is going to tell a story all afternoon. Eight races on the card, and the weather is every bit as much a factor as the form lines. When the track gets wet at Presque Isle, pace scenarios shift, closers can get an extra gear, and horses with early mud experience suddenly become a lot more interesting.

We've got a mix of Maiden Special Weights, Claiming races, and a pair of Allowance spots to dig into — solid variety for a Tuesday card. Three races are fully open for everyone, and our premium breakdown covers the remaining five. Whether you're playing a few races for fun or building multi-race tickets, there's plenty to work with today.

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Race 1

3:30 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Dirt

A wide-open maiden sprint at a mile where TrackWiz ratings separate the field clearly — but with all zeroes in the win column, anything can happen when first-timers hit dirt for the first time.

win2Last MoveML 8/1

Last Move opens at 8/1 on the morning line but carries the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 70.39 — a significant gap over the second-rated horse. Trainer Phil Schoenthal puts Antonio Gallardo in the irons, a pairing worth tracking on a horse that has flashed enough in the mornings to earn this kind of confidence. An avg speed figure of 52 isn't flashy, but in a maiden field where several runners have no published figure at all, any baseline is a leg up. At 8/1, if he hits the board you're getting paid — this is a legitimate overlay in our opinion.

place6BlessednotbotheredML 9/2

Blessednotbothered checks in with a TrackWiz rating of 64.05, second-best in the field, and posts an avg speed of 53 under trainer M. Anthony Ferraro. The 9/2 morning line suggests the morning-line maker sees talent here, and with Martina Rojas handling the reins, this horse gets a pilot with plenty of local experience. In a maiden field loaded with question marks, a horse with any positive data point stands out.

show4Lucky Lucky GinginML 3/1

Lucky Lucky Gingin draws the services of Israel Rodriguez for trainer Michael Trombetta — and Trombetta is a barn worth respecting when he ships a first-starter into a Maiden Special Weight. A TrackWiz rating of 56.67 with an avg speed of 55 puts this horse squarely in the competitive zone, and the 3/1 morning line is the shortest in the field. Use her underneath in exactas and trifectas as a dependable safety net.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

3:57 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A claiming sprint that sets up as a two-horse battle between a clear TrackWiz standout and a surprisingly potent pace rival — but there's enough depth in this eight-horse field to produce a contentious finish.

win1Hightail FoxML 3/1

Hightail Fox owns the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 87.08 — a wide margin over second-place Expresso Bay at 65.67. The avg speed of 56 ties for best in the field, and trainer Michael Pappada puts Rosario Montanez up, a strong local combination. A career win rate of 11% in a claiming field isn't alarming when the raw ability numbers are this dominant. Bet to win confidently at 3/1.

place2The Sinner Is YouML 4/1

The Sinner Is You brings a 25% career win rate — second-best in the field — which speaks to a horse that fires when the conditions are right. Trainer Murray Rojas keeps it in the family with Martina Rojas riding, and that familiarity matters in short sprints where a clean break can be decisive. A TrackWiz rating of 72.77 is well clear of the mid-pack, making this a logical exacta partner with Hightail Fox.

show7Expresso BayML 5/2

Expresso Bay comes in with the second-highest TrackWiz rating at 65.67 and matches the field-best avg speed figure of 56, giving trainer Brandon Kulp and jockey Taylor Kingsley a live runner at a 5/2 morning line that implies the oddsmakers agree. A 14% career win rate in claiming company is respectable, and if the pace scenario sets up with speed on the front end burning each other out, Expresso Bay could be closing late into a piece of the prize.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Our three free races lead off the card and deserve a close look given the conditions. Last Move opens the day in a one-mile Maiden Special Weight — an 8/1 morning line price with a TrackWiz rating of 70.39 on a surface that could play to unexpected strengths. Maiden routes on an off track have a way of scrambling the field, which makes a price like that genuinely interesting. In Race 2, Hightail Fox tops our board in a 6-furlong Claimer with an 87.08 rating — one of the stronger numbers on today's full card — and that 3/1 morning line might actually represent fair value. Race 3 brings another Maiden Special Weight going 6 furlongs, where Quinntopia breaks from the gate at 5/2. The rating (57.5) reflects how wide open maiden dirt sprints can be, especially in the rain, so manage expectations and ticket size accordingly.

The throughline connecting these free picks: on a wet track, respect horses that have shown any comfort rating on off surfaces, lean toward those with cleaner trip histories, and don't dismiss the longer prices just because they're on the outside of the morning line.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

4:24 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

Another first-time maiden field with tightly bunched ratings across the top four, where the pace scenario over six furlongs could matter just as much as raw talent.

win2QuinntopiaML 5/2

Quinntopia tops the TrackWiz ratings at 57.50 and backs it up with an avg speed figure of 56 — the best in the field — under trainer Michael Pappada and jockey Rosario Montanez, a pairing that already surfaces as one of the sharpest at the meet. At 5/2 on the morning line, Quinntopia is the public's choice and our analysis agrees. In a field of maidens with spotty figures, having the top speed number is a meaningful edge.

place4WalkerML 3/1

Walker sits just a tick below Quinntopia in the ratings at 56.67 with a solid avg speed of 55, and trainer S. Matthew Kintz hands the mount to the in-form Gaddiel Martinez. The 3/1 morning line reflects legitimate confidence, and in a race where pace could be contested, Walker's profile suggests a horse capable of tracking and pouncing. A natural exacta partner with our top pick.

show5FlounderML 4/1

Flounder draws in at 4/1 for trainer Kevin Rice with jockey Ciera Pruitt in the saddle. The TrackWiz rating of 55 keeps Flounder right in the mix, and while there's no published avg speed figure, Rice is no stranger to developing young horses at Presque Isle. At 4/1, there's enough value to include in trifecta coverage as a live outsider who could grab a share.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 4

4:51 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

This allowance sprint features a pair of Randall Russell trainees that stand head and shoulders above the rest on TrackWiz ratings — setting up as a potential stable one-two with a key question being which one fires first.

win4Shez UntappableML 4/1

Shez Untappable posts a TrackWiz rating of 85.62 — the highest in the field — with an avg speed of 56 and a 13% career win rate in allowance company. Trainer Randall Russell has her set up nicely with Gaddiel Martinez aboard, and Martinez has been one of the busiest and most effective riders on this card. At 4/1, the morning line is fair but this horse may be worth more than that based on the raw numbers. Our top selection in what looks like a manageable field.

place3Boogie WoogieML 3/1

Stablemate Boogie Woogie is no throwaway at 76.24 in the TrackWiz ratings, with a 20% career win rate that's actually higher than Shez Untappable's. Trainer Russell doubles up with Walber Alencar up top, and when a trainer saddles two legitimate contenders, he usually knows which one is peaking — but both deserve respect. At 3/1, Boogie Woogie is a logical place play and a key exacta leg.

show1Xmas in CairoML 7/2

Xmas in Cairo brings an 18% career win rate and an avg speed of 55, solid credentials for allowance company. Israel Rodriguez is one of the top pilots at this meet, and trainer Bernard Dunham has this horse pointed at a race the ratings suggest is competitive but winnable. At 7/2, Xmas in Cairo is a reasonable show ticket and an exotic inclusion if you're spreading against the Russell barn.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 5

5:18 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

A five-furlong starter optional claiming sprint that has all the makings of a pace duel up front — but the two horses with the highest TrackWiz ratings are loaded with firepower and should sort things out in the stretch.

win7Half BirthdayML 5/2

Half Birthday earns the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 87.81 and posts the highest avg speed figure at 57 — both the best marks on the board today. Rosario Montanez takes the mount for trainer Scooter Davis, and at 5/2 on the morning line there's still reasonable value for the horse our analysis likes most. A 20% career win rate in this format suggests consistency, and over five furlongs the talent advantage should show up quickly.

place2KanazawaML 2/1

Kanazawa is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 for good reason — a staggering 43% career win rate that is by far the best in this field and frankly impressive in any field. Israel Rodriguez rides for trainer Juan Arriagada, and the TrackWiz rating of 84.15 with an avg speed of 56 confirms this is a horse running near the top of its game. We like Half Birthday best on the numbers, but Kanazawa's win rate demands respect in every exotic combination.

show6Irish VictoryML 7/2

Irish Victory checks in at 7/2 with a TrackWiz rating of 70.99 and a 25% career win rate — the third-best win percentage in the field. Trainer Aldana Spieth keeps it in-house with Scott Spieth riding, and that personal investment sometimes translates to an extra gear when it counts. The avg speed of 56 ties for the field-best mark, making Irish Victory a smart show play and a live trifecta piece if the top two horses tangle on the lead.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 6

5:45 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

An intriguing claiming route at over a mile where the morning-line favorite doesn't match up with our top-rated horses — creating a potential overlay scenario and a chance for value-hunters to capitalize.

win2T' RayML 9/2

T' Ray checks in with a TrackWiz rating of 79.09 — second-highest in the field — and draws the services of Israel Rodriguez for trainer Scooter Davis. The 9/2 morning line looks generous given the strength of the rating, and Rodriguez has been firing at a high clip throughout this card. A 16% career win rate at route distances shows T' Ray can get the trip, and this may be a spot where the public underestimates this horse.

place5Hoby CatML 10/1

Hoby Cat is the genuine value play in this race, opening at 10/1 on the morning line with a TrackWiz rating of 76.88 — actually higher than several horses with much shorter prices. Trainer Aaron West sends out the horse with Antonio Gallardo, who has been all over this card in the best spots. A 14% career win rate with an avg speed of 52 at this distance profile makes Hoby Cat a dangerous longshot — the morning line badly underestimates this horse if our ratings are right.

show1Lee the CabbyML 6/1

Lee the Cabby brings the best career win rate in this field at a robust 33%, and trainer Kevin Rice puts Gaddiel Martinez in the saddle over a mile and seventy yards. The TrackWiz rating of 75.39 with an avg speed of 55 rounds out a very competitive profile, and at 6/1 there's real value here for exotic players. This horse knows how to win, and the win rate alone earns a spot in your trifecta tickets.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 7

6:12 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

This six-and-a-half furlong allowance is a fascinating puzzle — four horses are clustered within a single rating point at the top of the TrackWiz standings, making pace shape and trip luck potentially more decisive than pure ability.

win4Tiger DivisionML 7/2

Tiger Division earns our top spot with a TrackWiz rating of 77.00 and an avg speed of 56, and trainer Michael Pappada deploys Rosario Montanez — the same team that surfaces as one of the meet's sharpest combos. A 10% career win rate looks modest, but in a race this tight on ratings, execution and pace positioning matter more than raw win percentages. At 7/2, Tiger Division is fairly priced and gets the nod as our best bet.

place5JenadriyahML 10/1

Jenadriyah is the longshot value play in this race, opening at 10/1 despite a TrackWiz rating of 76.88 that is virtually identical to our top pick. A 33% career win rate — tied for best in the field — is a legitimately impressive number that the morning-line price simply doesn't reflect. Trainer J. Michael Rogers puts Gaddiel Martinez up, and in a race where four horses could plausibly win, taking 10/1 on a horse with a 33% win rate is exactly the kind of edge that separates smart bettors from the crowd.

show6Ready MunnyML 9/2

Ready Munny rounds out our top three with a 76.67 TrackWiz rating and a matching 33% career win rate, checking all the boxes on the strength-of-form side. Trainer Dermot Littlefield sends out the horse with Mia Nicholls in the saddle, and at 9/2 there's still solid value available. The avg speed of 55 is consistent with the top of this field, and Ready Munny is a logical show play and trifecta anchor in what figures to be a contested finish.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 8

6:39 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

An eleven-horse claiming route where one horse stands well clear of the rest on TrackWiz ratings, but a large field over a mile and seventy yards means trouble can find even the best horse — making the place and show spots worth careful thought.

win1Starlit SkyML 2/1

Starlit Sky opens as the 2/1 favorite with the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 88.54 — and it's not particularly close. Israel Rodriguez takes the mount for trainer Ron Potts, and Potts doubles up in this race with another live horse (New Issue at #10), suggesting strong stable confidence in the spot. A 16% career win rate is respectable in an eleven-horse field, and with an avg speed of 53 that holds up against the field, Starlit Sky is our confident best bet on the card.

place10New IssueML 4/1

New Issue is a stablemate of Starlit Sky under trainer Ron Potts, and drawing program number 10 with Antonio Gallardo aboard puts this horse in capable hands. A TrackWiz rating of 76.17 is the second-best in the field, and a 12% career win rate in route company shows New Issue can handle the distance. When a trainer runs two horses and our ratings confirm both are legitimate, the place payoff on the barn's second string can be a prime opportunity.

show9EquinamousML 7/2

Equinamous opens at 7/2 with a TrackWiz rating of 57.98 — clearly third-best in the field after the Ron Potts pair — and Taylor Kingsley rides for trainer Cathy Carr Rozantz. A 14% career win rate and an avg speed of 53 show a horse that is competitive in this class, and at 7/2 the morning-line price reflects legitimate public respect. Include Equinamous in your trifecta tickets as the most likely horse to close into third behind the dominant Potts barn.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 11 runners

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Bottom line: rain at Presque Isle means today's card rewards sharp handicapping over gut instinct. Last Move at 8/1 is our free-card longshot to watch, Hightail Fox looks like a confident spot play, and Starlit Sky headlines the premium side with the top rating on the card. Tread carefully in the maiden races, respect the off-track variable, and size your tickets accordingly. Full card analysis — pace, exotics, and all eight races — is waiting for subscribers.

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