Presque Isle Downs Picks & Predictions — September 21, 2026

Showdown King is the morning line choice at 3/1 and brings a 22% career win rate and an average speed figure of 56 — tied for tops in the field. Rosario Montanez rides for trainer Michael C. Pappada, and this horse figures to be forwardly placed from the two hole. If Enjoy the Music gets into a pace duel, Showdown King has the tactical speed to capitalize and is a logical place key in exotics.

Straightoutadutton rounds out the Russell barn's entry here at 7/2, drawing into the six hole with David Delgado aboard. A TrackWiz rating of 76.82 and an average speed of 56 give this horse legitimate credentials, and it's worth noting that trainer Russell's dual-entry strategy may set up favorable pace dynamics for Straightoutadutton to close ground late. At morning line odds that don't scream overlay, this is your trifecta insurance.

Happyisashappydoes is just a whisker back at 86.96 — literally fractions of a point behind the top pick — and Israel O. Rodriguez pilots this one for trainer Juan Arriagada. A 23% career win rate is the best in the field and signals a horse who fires regularly in this type of spot. If Extrasexybigdaddee runs into any traffic trouble around the stretch turn, Happyisashappydoes has the profile to steal the exacta.

Tigre sits third in the ratings at 61.75 — a noticeable drop from the top two — but the 9/2 morning line gives this one some speculative value in a thin field. Gaddiel A. Martinez takes the mount for trainer Tim Girten, and a 10% career win rate is the concern here. That said, in a race where the top two could set up honest fractions over a mile and a sixteenth, a stalker like Tigre can sneak into the trifecta at a price.

Ohoopee has the best career win percentage in this field at 30% and rates second at 81.85 — a horse who knows how to finish. Israel O. Rodriguez rides for trainer Tim Girten, and at 6/1 on the morning line, there's legitimate value here for the exacta. The average speed figure of 55 suggests this horse won't blow anyone away early, but with that win rate, Ohoopee has a knack for being around at the right time.

Miss M M is a sneaky trifecta inclusion at 10/1 on the morning line with a TrackWiz rating of 76.88 — third-best in this eight-horse field. Walber Alencar rides for trainer Moises Valdez, and while a 9% career win rate is low, the average speed of 56 ties for best in the race. At double-digit odds, this is the kind of price that makes trifecta boxes worth considering — a horse with real speed credentials flying under the public radar.

Outhustle is impossible to ignore on paper with a 53% career win rate — by far the highest mark on today's entire card — and a TrackWiz rating of 79.37. Mike Allen rides for trainer Randall R. Russell, who is running multiple horses across this card with clear confidence. The 2/1 morning line will likely compress further, so rather than chasing this one to win at a short price, the place slot is where the risk-reward math makes more sense.

Paschal Moon rates third in this field at 68.59 and is the morning line second choice at 5/2, with Scott Spieth aboard for trainer Aldana Spieth — a family connection that often brings extra motivation. An average speed figure of 56 matches the top horses in the field, and a 20% career win rate is respectable in Starter Optional Claiming company. Include this one in your trifectas as a bridge between the top two picks and the rest of the field.

Duck Hunter rates a close second at 84.35 and goes to the gate at 4/1 with Addiel J. Ayala aboard for trainer Adam Rice. A 18% career win rate is modest but workable in allowance company, and the average speed figure of 54 places this horse as a mid-pack type who could pick up the pieces if Big Run runs into any early pressure. The rating gap between these two and the rest of the field is substantial, making the exacta a strong play.

Drunkle rates third at 76.72 but checks in at 6/1 on the morning line, offering a nice price for trifecta backers. Gaddiel A. Martinez climbs aboard for trainer Kevin Rice, who runs two horses in this race — Drunkle and Youreawizard Harry — and the fact that Martinez, arguably the busiest jockey on today's card, gets this mount is telling. A 16% career win rate in allowance company is a concern, but at 6/1, the show position is worth covering.

Xerces is our value angle in this race at 8/1 morning line odds — the third-rated horse at 79.79 with a 18% career win rate and some genuine upside. Rosario Montanez takes the mount for trainer John Guciardo, and a 53 average speed figure suggests this horse will need to be involved early in a route. At 8/1, if Xerces fires at anywhere near its best, the exacta payoff with Starship Belmont on top could be substantial.

My Sugar Boo rates second in the field at 77.59 and comes in at 4/1 on the morning line — a horse that trainer Cody Beattie runs out of the two hole with Leonardo Corujo aboard. A 16% career win rate and an average speed of 54 make this a consistent type in route company, and at a fair price, it serves as a logical trifecta piece in a race where the top three rated horses are meaningfully better than the rest of the field.