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Presque Isle Downs Picks & Predictions — September 18, 2026

September 18, 202610 racesAll Presque Isle Downs picks

It's a beautiful Friday at Presque Isle Downs — clear skies, 68°F, and a fast-playing dirt surface that should have the speed horses loving life all afternoon. Conditions like these tend to set up honest pace scenarios, and with ten races on the slate, there's plenty of action to dig into from the first post to the nightcap.

The headline story today is the stakes-heavy card. Five graded and overnight stakes races are spread across Races 3, 5, 7, 8, and 9 — giving bettors multiple opportunities to cash big in high-quality fields. Mix in a pair of allowance races and some claiming variety in the early going, and you've got the kind of balanced card that rewards smart handicapping all the way through.

Our TrackWiz analysis has combed through every race, and we like what we see. There's a legitimate long shot angle in Race 1, a chalk play with real teeth in Race 2, and a stakes contender in Race 3 who could surprise a lot of people at the windows.

Best Bets

Race 1

9:00 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A wide-open claiming sprint where the morning-line favorite gets outrated by a 7/1 shot — value hunters take note, because the public price and the TrackWiz numbers are telling very different stories.

win6ShannoniaML 7/1

Shannonia tops the TrackWiz ratings at 81.25 despite going off at 7/1 on the morning line, and that gap between public perception and analytical edge is exactly where value lives. Her 33% career win rate is the best in the field by a comfortable margin — more than 10 points clear of her closest rivals. Trainer Michael C. Pappada sends her out with Rosario Montanez in the irons, a pairing worth watching. If she fires her typical effort in this 6-furlong dirt sprint, she should be in the mix at a very playable price.

place5BruderML 5/2

Bruder is the morning-line favorite at 5/2 and posts a solid 77.29 TrackWiz rating to back up that status. His 20% career win rate is respectable for a claimer, and trainer Todd M. Beattie keeps him competitive at this level. He's the logical bridesmaid if Shannonia gets the job done, and at a short price he's the safe play in your exacta.

show1SnownameML 3/1

Snowname comes in at 3/1 with a 72.47 rating and an 18% career win clip — modest, but he matches Shannonia and Housebuilder with the field's top average speed figure of 56. Ron G. Potts conditions him, and Addiel J. Ayala is a dependable hand up front. In a nine-horse field with this much separation at the top, Snowname is a reasonable show anchor for exacta and trifecta coverage.

Race 2

9:27 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

A dominant favorite looms large in this allowance route, but a sneaky 10/1 price in the show slot gives exotic players a reason to look deeper than the top two.

win3Justifiable SteelML 9/5

Justifiable Steel is the standout of the entire race card at this distance — an 88.83 TrackWiz rating combined with a jaw-dropping 66% career win rate makes her the most overwhelming analytical selection of the day. Trainer Aaron M. West and jockey Axel Concepcion team up on a horse who simply closes out races at a historic clip. The 9/5 morning line is short, but it's earned — in an allowance field where no one else tops 78, she's the class of the field by a wide margin.

place1Night NurseML 5/2

Night Nurse is the clear second choice both on the morning line (5/2) and in TrackWiz ratings (78.62), and her 25% career win rate is the second-best in the field. Kevin Rice conditions her, with Addiel J. Ayala taking the mount — that's a capable combination at Presque Isle. If Justifiable Steel has any trouble in this route scenario, Night Nurse is right there to capitalize.

show7Cole's ValentineML 10/1

Cole's Valentine is a sneaky 10/1 on the morning line but rates a meaningful 64.78 — well clear of the rest of the bottom half of the field. Trainer Ralph N. Baez has her at a price the market is undervaluing, and Ciera Pruitt gets the call. In a seven-horse field where the top two figure to dominate, Cole's Valentine is the most logical third-place finisher for trifecta players looking to keep costs down.

Race 3

9:54 PM EDT

Stakes · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

This stakes sprint is a fascinating clash between two high-rated horses and a field littered with unbeaten records — but small sample sizes make some of those perfect records deceiving, so the TrackWiz numbers do the heavy lifting here.

win9Almighty OneML 2/1

Almighty One posts a field-best 81.94 TrackWiz rating and goes off at 2/1 — the market agrees with our analysis here. His 40% career win rate is genuine production, not a fluke built on one race, and trainer Kevin Rice has him sharp at this level. Gaddiel A. Martinez picks up the mount, and in a 6.5-furlong dirt stakes, Almighty One's combination of high rating and proven winning consistency makes him the most reliable selection in the field.

place5Royal CompanionML 8/5

Royal Companion sits just a tick below Almighty One at 81.32 and is the morning-line favorite at 8/5, reflecting strong public confidence. Paco Lopez — one of the sharper jockeys on this card — gets the leg up for trainer Michael J. Trombetta. Her 66% career win rate is eye-catching, and while sample-size caveats apply, she has the class profile to hit the board in a stakes sprint and give trifecta players a safe middle slot.

show4Greatest JoyML 8/1

Greatest Joy is a solid 8/1 morning line with a 73.79 TrackWiz rating that puts her well ahead of the rest of the field outside the top two. The Kevin Rice barn also conditions her — same outfit as our top pick Almighty One, which speaks to stable depth and confidence. At 8/1 she represents nice value if you're building exactas or trifectas, and her 25% career win rate says she knows how to finish.

The first three races on today's card are unlocked for every TrackWiz reader, and they offer a solid cross-section of the day's themes. In the opening 6-furlong claiming sprint, Shannonia pops off the page at a morning line of 7/1 — that's the kind of price on a horse our models rate at 81.25 that gets our attention fast. Race 2 stretches things out to a mile and 70 yards on the dirt, and Justifiable Steel (9/5 ML, 88.83 rating) is the class of the field in what shapes up as an allowance worth taking seriously. Then comes the first stakes race of the afternoon — the 6½-furlong sprint in Race 3 — where Almighty One draws the 2/1 morning line but our TrackWiz rating of 81.94 suggests the market might be just a touch short on her. Still, on a clear, fast day like this, closers beware — early pace could be rewarded.

One angle to watch across all three free races: the clean weather and firm footing at Presque Isle today historically favor horses that can take a forward position and sustain it. Keep that pace bias in mind when looking at the exacta and trifecta combinations in these openers.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

10:21 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 1/4 mi · Dirt

Two horses with elite TrackWiz ratings separate themselves from the pack in this starter optional claiming route, setting up a battle between a pace-pressing type and a closer over a mile and a quarter of Presque Isle dirt.

win6Goodie GoomerML 4/1

Goodie Goomer leads our analysis with an 85.62 rating and a 28% career win rate — the top mark in the field on both fronts. His average speed figure of 56 is the best in the race, giving him an edge in raw pace numbers over the long 1¼-mile route. Israel O. Rodriguez gets the mount for trainer Juan Arriagada, and at 4/1 on the morning line, there's legitimate value attached to the top-rated horse. This is our best bet of the race.

place7Starship EmpireML 5/2

Starship Empire is close on Goodie Goomer's heels at 84.14 and carries a field-best 31% career win rate for trainer Scooter Davis. Antonio A. Gallardo rides, and the Davis-Gallardo combination is worth noting at a fair 5/2 morning line. The slight gap in average speed (52 vs. 56 for Goodie Goomer) could be the difference over this long route, but Starship Empire has the class and consistency to land in the exacta.

show2VanML 3/1

Van comes in at 3/1 with a 71.55 TrackWiz rating and a 19% career win rate — solid if unspectacular numbers that hold up well in this mid-field. Gaddiel A. Martinez takes the mount for trainer Ron G. Potts, the same barn that also sends out Louisianimal. Van's distance profile over a route suggests he'll be running on late, making him a logical show option in a 1¼-mile dirt race where pace can crumble.

Race 5

10:48 PM EDT

Stakes · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A loaded stakes sprint headlined by the two highest-rated horses on the card today — John Dutton and Shadow Factor figure to put on a show, with a pair of closers lurking for trifecta players.

win4John DuttonML 9/5

John Dutton paces all comers with an 88.83 TrackWiz rating — matching Justifiable Steel from Race 2 for the best mark on the entire card — and an average speed figure of 57, the highest in this field. Despite a 21% career win rate that might look modest, this is a stakes horse whose raw ability outpaces his win-conversion, and trainer Scooter Davis is clearly confident booking Rosario Montanez. At 9/5 on the morning line, the value is thin but the form is real.

place3Shadow FactorML 2/1

Shadow Factor is right there at 84.24 with an average speed figure also matching the top tier at 56, and his 33% career win rate is the best of any horse in this race. Trainer Ron G. Potts sends him out with Gaddiel A. Martinez, a combination that's fired in multiple races today. At 2/1 he's hardly a price play, but as a place proposition in an exacta underneath John Dutton, Shadow Factor is the natural dance partner.

show5The Boy's WarriorML 9/2

The Boy's Warrior rates a solid 69.63 and wins at a 38% clip in his career — a genuinely impressive win rate for a stakes-level horse that suggests he routinely fires competitively. Taylor Kingsley has the mount for trainer Scooter Davis, who doubles back with a second runner in this field. At 9/2 on the morning line, he's a fair third option behind the two standouts and a worthwhile trifecta anchor.

Race 6

11:15 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Three horses cluster at the top of the TrackWiz ratings in this 6.5-furlong allowance, creating a competitive exacta and trifecta puzzle — but the morning-line prices make this a genuine value opportunity for savvy bettors.

win2Thorn of HeartsML 5/2

Thorn of Hearts leads our ratings at 87.81 and is one of the sharper horses on the card today. Paco Lopez gets the call for trainer Michael C. Pappada — the same barn that runs Shannonia in Race 1 — and at 5/2 on the morning line, the price is fair for the top-rated runner. Her 15% career win rate is lower than you'd like, but in an allowance field where the ratings tightly cluster at the top, the edge belongs to the highest figure, and that's Thorn of Hearts.

place1RetekoML 3/1

Reteko rates a strong 85.04 and draws the rail for trainer Scooter Davis with Rosario Montanez aboard. His 18% career win rate is in line with the field average, but his positional draw and Davis's well-documented ability to place horses competitively at Presque Isle make him a reliable exacta piece. At 3/1 he's a natural pairing with Thorn of Hearts in straight exactas.

show7Buck's HowlML 6/1

Buck's Howl is the value play of this race at 6/1 — a 82.71 TrackWiz rating that ranks third in the field is genuinely underpriced by the morning line. Israel O. Rodriguez rides for trainer Juan Arriagada, and Buck's Howl's 40% career win rate is the best in this entire field by a wide margin. That win-rate stat screams underlay at 6/1, and trifecta players should make him a strong consideration.

Race 7

11:42 PM EDT

Stakes · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

An eleven-horse stakes sprint with a tight ratings cluster and multiple 100% win-rate horses muddying the waters — but those unbeaten marks need context, and TrackWiz analysis cuts through the noise to identify the most reliable play.

win3Bossy WossyML 2/1

Bossy Wossy tops the field at a 58.33 TrackWiz rating and carries a 100% career win rate — and with trainer Juan Arriagada placing her at 2/1 on the morning line, the market is clearly respecting both marks. Israel O. Rodriguez is one of the more active riders on today's card and has shown good awareness in multi-horse fields. In an eleven-horse stakes sprint, breaking clean and rating early will be key, and the Arriagada barn tends to have their horses ready on race day.

place10Frost RocketML 4/1

Frost Rocket rates 55.00 with a 50% career win rate for trainer H. Graham Motion — a name that carries weight at any track. Paco Lopez is a strong booking from the outside post, and at 4/1 on the morning line, Frost Rocket profiles as a logical place finisher behind the top pick. Motion's horses tend to be fit and ready, and Lopez knows how to find position in a large field.

show7Boyhood DreamML 3/1

Boyhood Dream sits at 53.33 in the ratings with a 33% career win rate, landing him in the lower half of the top tier for this competitive stakes. Axel Concepcion takes the mount for trainer Nolan Ramsey, and at 3/1 morning line, Boyhood Dream is priced to attract public attention. His combination of decent ratings and a competitive win conversion gives him the profile of a horse that hits the board without necessarily winning outright — ideal for show bets and trifecta coverage.

Race 8

12:09 AM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

This 1 1/16-mile stakes features a morning-line favorite whose odds don't match his TrackWiz number, while a quieter 9/2 shot leads the ratings by a comfortable margin — a prime upset scenario worth exploring.

win3GroundedML 9/2

Grounded leads the field at 84.90 on TrackWiz ratings despite going off at 9/2 — a significant gap between the public price and the analytical edge. Trainer Scooter Davis fires him with Rosario Montanez in the irons, and his 44% career win rate is the best in this stakes field by a meaningful margin. In a route at 1 1/16 miles, horses with genuine class tend to separate from the field in the stretch, and Grounded's profile screams class standout at a playable price.

place8NeoequosML 5/2

Neoequos is the morning-line second choice at 5/2 and backs it up with a 78.49 TrackWiz rating — solid, if clearly a step below Grounded's top figure. Paco Lopez rides for trainer Saffie A. Joseph, Jr., and that combination has delivered at the stakes level consistently. At 5/2 he's a natural exacta partner with Grounded, and his 23% career win rate holds up well in this competitive field.

show5He's a MessML 7/1

He's a Mess rates 75.98 and goes at 7/1 on the morning line — making him the rare horse who offers both legitimate ratings backing and a fair price. Antonio A. Gallardo gets the mount for trainer Scooter Davis, who doubles up in this race alongside Grounded, which signals trainer confidence in both runners. His 23% career win rate is consistent, and at 7/1 he's a worthwhile show play and trifecta inclusion for players looking to beat the chalk.

Race 9

12:36 AM EDT

Stakes · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

The top TrackWiz rating in this stakes sprint belongs to a horse at 8/1 — a classic overlay situation where the crowd is underestimating the best-performing horse in the field, creating real value for sharp bettors.

win7Mitole MagicML 8/1

Mitole Magic is our top-rated horse at 79.79 and yet goes off at 8/1 on the morning line — that's a significant disconnect that TrackWiz analysis puts squarely in your favor. His 22% career win rate is middle of the pack, but his average speed figure of 56 ties for the best in the field alongside Les Reys and Lovely Emma. Gaddiel A. Martinez rides for trainer Randall R. Russell, a barn that shows up in our analysis multiple times today with competitive runners. At 8/1, this is the value play of the race.

place5Reagan's FlameML 8/5

Reagan's Flame is the morning-line favorite at 8/5 and owns a strong 63.91 TrackWiz rating with a 34% career win rate — both figures indicate a horse that consistently runs well and converts. Trainer Saffie A. Joseph, Jr. fields two in this race, and Edgard J. Zayas takes the plum mount. While our top pick offers more value, Reagan's Flame is the safe place wager in exactas — she should be running close to the lead late.

show8Lovely EmmaML 6/1

Lovely Emma brings a 59.41 rating and a 30% career win rate to the table, along with an average speed figure of 57 — tied for the best raw pace number in the field. Israel O. Rodriguez is up for trainer Peter Eurton, and that cross-country connection suggests a horse shipped in targeting this spot. At 6/1 she offers legitimate value as a show horse and trifecta component, especially if the pace scenario sets up for closers late in the sprint.

Race 10

1:03 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

The nightcap is a competitive allowance optional claiming sprint where the morning-line favorite is actually NOT our top-rated horse — the top two TrackWiz figures go at even money and 3/1, setting up a fascinating final race showdown.

win8Ready Set CairoML EVN

Ready Set Cairo is listed at even money on the morning line and posts an 82.06 TrackWiz rating — the top figure in this nine-horse field. Paco Lopez picks up the mount for trainer Michael C. Pappada, who has been active on today's card and clearly knows the Presque Isle circuit. Her 18% career win rate is modest for a favorite, but in an optional claiming spot, the class edge matters more than raw conversion rate, and the ratings say she's the one to beat.

place3A Case of YouML 3/1

A Case of You is right behind at 81.35 with a 34% career win rate — a genuinely impressive conversion percentage that suggests she's competitive whenever she runs. Rosario Montanez gets the call for trainer Scooter Davis, and the Davis-Montanez combination appears multiple times on today's card with strong results. At 3/1 on the morning line, she's a value-priced alternative to the even-money favorite in exactas.

show6Where You WasML 6/1

Where You Was rates 80.06 — just a tick below the top two — and goes at 6/1 on the morning line, making her the most undervalued member of the upper tier in this race. Antonio A. Gallardo rides for trainer Tim Girten, and her 21% career win rate pairs with a top-end average speed figure of 56 to suggest she can pace with the leaders. At 6/1 she's the live show play that gives trifecta tickets real profit potential if the top three fill as rated.

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Bottom line: Presque Isle is dealing a premium card today with five stakes races, gorgeous weather, and several horses sitting at prices worth building tickets around. Justifiable Steel and Almighty One headline the free analysis, but the real value — and the full exotic strategy — lives in the premium breakdown. Unlock the complete card at TrackWiz (see subscriber plans here) and go into post time with a plan. Good luck out there.

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