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Monmouth Park Picks & Predictions — August 21, 2026
It's a beautiful Friday afternoon at Monmouth Park — 76°F, partly cloudy, and the kind of day where the Jersey Shore breeze keeps the turf course in prime shape. With three of today's six races contested on the grass, surface matters, and conditions look favorable for horses who can use that firmer turf footing to their advantage.
Today's six-race card mixes claiming and maiden action with a Starter Optional Claiming turf sprint in Race 3 that figures to draw a sharp crowd. The speed figures across the card are competitive, and our TrackWiz ratings have identified some strong overlays worth targeting — including a 6/1 longshot in Race 6 that's worth a serious look if you're hunting value.
Best Bets
Race 1
Claiming · 5 fur · Turf
A 5-furlong turf sprint with a clear top rating in Gold Stamp, but three other horses within shouting distance make this more than a rubber stamp — price players have genuine chances.
Gold Stamp is the class of this field by a comfortable margin, posting a TrackWiz rating of 88.83 — nearly 16 points clear of the next challenger. Francisco Martinez gets the call, and the horse sports an average speed figure of 55, tied for the top in the field. At 9/5 on the morning line, the public agrees this is the one to beat, and the numbers back it up. If there's a knock, it's a career win percentage of just 11%, so this horse has a habit of running well without always closing the deal — watch early to confirm it breaks cleanly.
Bella Bello Banker (3) is the logical backup at 4/1, carrying a rating of 72.29 and an 18% career win rate — the best in the field. Trainer Juan Carlos Avila also sends out Lady Hathor in this same race, meaning the barn has double coverage and a tactical advantage. Carlos Eduardo Rojas rides, and at 4/1, the place price should be solid if Gold Stamp wins and this one fills out the board.
Gwen to Win (6) at 9/2 is a sneaky include for exotics with a 68.79 rating and a 16% career win percentage that's above average for this field. Jose C. Ferrer handles the mount, a capable rider at Monmouth. This one's speed figure of 54 is in line with the main cluster of competitors, making her a tough out in a race where several horses are separated by only small margins.
Race 2
Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt
Maiden claimers on dirt are always a puzzle, and this one's no exception — every horse in here is still looking for their first win, so past finishing positions matter less than raw ability and trainer intent.
Shozan (3) tops our TrackWiz rating at 56.67 and draws the morning line of 3/1 — the second choice behind the public's 8/5 favorite. Trainer Teresa M. Pompay also runs Yauprissy in this field, so she clearly likes the condition and distance. Without published speed figures available, we're leaning on the overall rating edge and the trainer's familiarity with the spot. Jose Antonio Gomez gets the mount, and he's been a solid presence at Monmouth this meet.
Excellion (2) is our place pick with a rating of 55.83, just a whisker behind Shozan. Trainer Juan Carlos Avila has an active barn at Monmouth today, and Angel Morales takes the reins here. No speed figures on record could mean this is a first-time starter with a live shot — those Avila debuters have a way of showing up ready, and at 7/2, there's genuine place value if the pace sets up honestly.
Cuddy's Lucky (5) is the morning line favorite at 8/5, trained by Kelly J. Breen — a well-respected Monmouth conditioner — with Jose C. Ferrer in the irons. The horse has a logged average speed figure of 54, which is more race-ready data than most of this field can show. The public money will likely compress the win odds, but that speed figure edge makes this a safe show bet to anchor your trifecta structure.
Race 3
Starter Optional Claiming · 5 fur · Turf
Allison Park looms as a dominant favorite in this starter optional claiming turf sprint, but True Spun at 5/2 gives bettors a live alternative, and the 12/1 on Elsie's Smile deserves a second look.
Allison Park (1) is the standout of the day in Race 3, boasting a TrackWiz rating of 89.12 — the highest of any horse in the first three races. A career win percentage of 30% is elite for this class level, and an average speed figure of 56 ties for the top of the field. Patrick B. McBurney trains and Jose Antonio Gomez rides, a combination that should handle the 5-furlong turf distance well. At 8/5, the price is short, but the credentials demand respect.
True Spun (5) is the clear second choice at 5/2, and trainer Kathleen O'Connell saddles two horses in this race — a sign the barn is locked in on this condition. The horse carries a strong 78.71 rating with a 56 average speed figure matching Allison Park at the top of the speed charts. Pedro L. Cotto, Jr. has the mount, and at 5/2, this is genuine place value if Allison Park steps up as expected.
Foggy Note (3) at 3/1 adds Kelly J. Breen's training touch to Luis R. Rivera, Jr.'s veteran presence in the saddle. The rating of 61.9 and a 55 average speed figure make this one competitive enough to earn a show check in a race where the top two are fairly established. For trifecta players, Foggy Note is a reliable underneath piece at a price that still offers some payout.
The three free races give you a solid cross-section of today's card. On the turf side, Gold Stamp (Race 1, 9/5 morning line) earns an 88.83 TrackWiz rating and looks like the class of a five-furlong claiming opener — short turf sprints tend to reward horses with clean early positioning, and today's conditions should suit. Allison Park carries that theme right into Race 3, posting the day's highest free-race rating at 89.12 in a Starter Optional Claiming turf sprint. Two sharp turf plays in the first three races is a nice way to start the afternoon.
Race 2 breaks things up with six furlongs on the dirt — maiden claiming territory, which is always a bit of a mystery box. Shozan tops our board at 3/1 on the morning line, though the 56.67 rating is the lowest of the day's top picks, which is a fair reflection of how wide-open maiden fields can be. Use the free analysis to understand the angles, but keep your exposure measured in maiden races.
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A firm turf course, mild temperatures, and a card loaded with sprint action makes for an engaging Friday at Monmouth. Gold Stamp and Allison Park are the headline plays in the free races, with Shozan as a watchable contender in the maiden dirt. For the complete pace analysis, exotic ticket construction, and the full case for Curious Soul as today's top value play, subscribers have everything they need inside TrackWiz. Good luck at the windows — let's make it a profitable Friday.