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Monmouth Park Picks & Predictions — August 16, 2026

August 16, 20268 racesAll Monmouth Park picks

Results are in — see the official Monmouth Park chart and payouts (our top pick won 1 of 8)→

Monmouth Park is putting on an eight-race card this Sunday afternoon, and conditions are about as cooperative as the Jersey Shore gets in August — cloudy skies, 80°F, and no rain in the picture. That's good news for the turf course, which features five of today's eight races, including a pair of maiden special weights and two allowance optional claiming events that should draw quality fields.

With so much action shifting to the grass, pace scenarios and ground-saving trips are going to matter. Riders who can find the rail and save ground on the turn will have a real edge today, so we'll be paying close attention to post position and running style as we work through the card.

TrackWiz analysis has identified strong plays in three free races to get you started, plus five premium deep-dives covering the trickier spots on the back half of the card — including a couple of spots where the morning line looks beatable.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:50 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Turf

Chad Brown saddles two first-time starters on the turf, creating a fascinating opener where connections and pedigree matter as much as past performance — this maiden field could go any direction.

win4She's GeorgeousML 5/2

She's Georgeous (4) earns the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 57.5 and draws the services of Jorge A. Vargas, Jr. in what amounts to a confidence pick from one of racing's elite turf conditioners in Chad Brown. First-out Brown turf maidens have a well-documented history of running big numbers, and the 5/2 morning line suggests the market agrees. With no prior speed figure to lean on, we're trusting the barn's reputation and the top composite rating here.

place6Market PerceptionML 3/1

Market Perception (6) is the other Brown first-timer in the field, also without a published speed figure, but that 56.67 TrackWiz rating slots her in just behind the top two. Brown regularly splits his two-horse entries wisely across races, but when he runs two together, both are usually fit and ready — and the 3/1 morning line on Market Perception offers a touch of added value over stablemate She's Georgeous.

show5FlamencaML 7/2

Flamenca (5) checks in with a 55.83 rating under trainer John C. Servis and figures to benefit from a pace scenario where the two Brown horses could press each other. Abner Adorno gets the call, and at 7/2 she's worth including in exacta and trifecta coverage as a closer who could sweep up late if the front-runners tire over the turf mile.

Race 2

5:22 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Chuck Spina throws in a one-two punch with the top two TrackWiz-rated horses in this six-furlong dirt claimer — both carry identical 16% career win rates, making the exacta combination within the barn a legitimate ticket.

win3Cool SpiteML 2/1

Cool Spite (3) leads our board with the race's highest TrackWiz rating at 88.54, a 16% career win rate, and an average speed figure of 54 — the best in the field. Chantal Sutherland has the call, which is a comfortable fit for a horse that figures to sit just off whatever pace develops. At 2/1 morning line, Cool Spite isn't a big overlay, but the edge in raw figures over even stablemate Last Flag Flying is enough to make her the clear top selection.

place2Last Flag FlyingML 3/2

Last Flag Flying (2) mirrors Cool Spite nearly identically on paper — same trainer (Spina), same 16% career win rate, and a 86.17 TrackWiz rating that's just a tick below the top horse. Jose C. Ferrer slides into the irons and this horse's 53 average speed figure makes him dangerous if Cool Spite gets into any trouble. The barn one-two is real, and keying both in exactas at 3/2 and 2/1 is a logical approach.

show6Point to That StarML 3/1

Point to That Star (6) is the main outsider threat here with an 80.88 rating — the third-best figure in the field — and Jorge Panaijo up for trainer Jose H. Delgado. The 3/1 morning line reflects some respect from the oddsmakers despite a career win rate of just 4%, suggesting there may be more recent form in play than the lifetime numbers imply. She rounds out the trifecta well as a horse that could pick up pieces if the Spina duo burns each other up early.

Race 3

5:52 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

Ghostwriter enters as a massive class standout by the numbers in this 5.5-furlong turf claimer, but the morning line favorite is Slay Sadie Slay — the value play at the top of our card is hiding in plain sight at 4/1.

win5GhostwriterML 4/1

Ghostwriter (5) owns the race's top TrackWiz rating by a country mile at 85.62 — more than 11 points clear of the second-rated horse. Jorge A. Vargas, Jr. is up for trainer Panagiotis A. Synnefias, and a 20% career win rate adds further credibility to this selection. The 4/1 morning line actually represents fair value given the rating gap, and on a short turf sprint where speed figures can be decisive, Ghostwriter looks like the most likely winner on paper.

place1Man With the MoneyML 5/2

Man With the Money (1) is the class of the rest with a 74.21 rating, an average speed figure of 57 — the best published figure in the field — and a 9% career win rate that understates recent form for trainer Kelly J. Breen. Luis R. Rivera, Jr. knows this horse well and the 5/2 morning line makes him the public's top choice, even if our model prefers Ghostwriter at the top. He's a strong exacta partner with strong late-race credentials.

show2Slay Sadie SlayML 2/1

Slay Sadie Slay (2) opens at 2/1 and carries a solid 14% career win rate under trainer Richard E. Dutrow, Jr. Her 61.33 TrackWiz rating and 54 average speed figure are honest without being dominant, and Ruben Silvera is a capable jockey who can get her in good position early on this short turf course. She's the most logical ticket-round-out at the show spot.

Our first three races give you a solid foundation for the day. On the turf opener, She's Georgeous (R1, 5/2 ML) draws our eye in a one-mile maiden special weight — a distance that should suit any router with a clean turn of foot. Over on the dirt in Race 2, Cool Spite (2/1 ML) comes in as our highest-rated free pick at 88.54 and looks like a horse the book is respecting for good reason. Then Race 3 takes us back to the turf for a short 5½-furlong sprint where Ghostwriter (4/1 ML) offers a touch of value against what looks like a manageable field.

The connecting thread across these three races is straightforward: the turf plays are both sprints or routes where class and pace control matter, and the one dirt play in Race 2 is a horse our model strongly endorses. If you're building a pick-3 or a parlay to kick off the afternoon, these three are your anchors.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:23 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Tejanita towers over this maiden dirt route field with a TrackWiz rating nearly 30 points clear of her closest competition — the question isn't who to pick, it's whether to play the place exotics around her.

win1TejanitaML 9/5

Tejanita (1) is about as dominant on paper as a maiden gets, posting an 88.83 TrackWiz rating that dwarfs the field and drawing trainer Claude R. McGaughey III — one of the most respected conditioners in the sport. Vincent Cheminaud takes the mount and brings significant international experience to this 1 1/16-mile dirt test. The 9/5 morning line reflects heavy market confidence, and an average speed figure of 53 from previous efforts gives her a tangible baseline most of her rivals lack entirely.

place3Run WildML 5/2

Run Wild (3) ties for second in the field with a 57.5 rating and has shown an average speed figure of 54, the best among the second-tier horses. Trainer Miguel Clement has a knack for developing young horses, and Luis R. Rivera, Jr. is a strong choice to keep her focused over the distance. At 5/2, she's reasonably priced as Tejanita's most likely challenger and the place bet here has merit if you're looking to construct a win/place parlay.

show5Year End BonusML 5/2

Year End Bonus (5) shares the 57.5 rating with Run Wild but makes the show ticket as a Chad Brown first-timer — a combination that demands respect regardless of the absence of a published speed figure. Charlie Marquez gets the call, and Brown's operation running at Monmouth is never an afterthought. The 5/2 morning line matches Run Wild's, giving exotic players two roughly equivalent secondary targets around the clear favorite.

Race 5

6:49 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

Por Voce enters this maiden turf sprint with a rating more than 29 points above the field's second-best horse — a yawning gap that makes the Chad Brown runner (Asset Light) the most interesting secondary target at 5/2.

win1Por VoceML 3/1

Por Voce (1) owns an 87.08 TrackWiz rating — the highest in the field and remarkably strong for a maiden on the turf. Robert E. Reid, Jr. sends out this horse with Jorge A. Vargas, Jr. in the irons, a jockey who thrives on the Monmouth turf course. An average speed figure of 54 from prior starts gives Por Voce a documented edge over several first-time starters in the field, and the 3/1 morning line feels like reasonable value given the gap on our model.

place4Asset LightML 5/2

Asset Light (4) is the Chad Brown entrant you always have to account for — a first-out turf maiden from that barn can do virtually anything. Luis R. Rivera, Jr. pilots her at 5/2, and the 57.5 TrackWiz rating positions her as the most likely horse to run down Por Voce if anything goes wrong early. With no speed figure on record, this is entirely a connections play, but Brown's turf win rate with first-timers makes her a solid place ticket.

show6Spritzn' AroundML 7/2

Spritzn' Around (6) has the highest average speed figure in the race at 56 and a 55.83 TrackWiz rating that's respectable in this company. Trainer Jorge Duarte, Jr. and jockey Ramon F. Moya have a working relationship, and the 7/2 morning line is the best-priced option among the horses with a legitimate figure in their lines. She's a strong inclusion on trifecta tickets as the most experienced-looking speed option in the field.

Race 6

7:18 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A genuine pace question defines this six-furlong dirt allowance — Follow the Fellow's top rating clashes with a compact group of horses all sharing the same 55 average speed figure, setting up a potential pace battle that could help a closer.

win3Follow the FellowML 5/1

Follow the Fellow (3) carries the race's top TrackWiz rating at 84.17 and a jaw-dropping 44% career win rate — the kind of number that jumps off the page in allowance company. Trainer Chuck Spina sends her out with Chantal Sutherland up, and the 5/1 morning line looks like legitimate value when that rating and career win percentage are this strong. If this horse can avoid a pace war and rate off the early speed, the 55 average speed figure is plenty to compete.

place5Re MarkablyML 8/5

Re Markably (5) is the morning-line co-favorite at 8/5 with a 82.51 rating and a 26% career win rate — numbers that back up the public's enthusiasm. Luis R. Rivera, Jr. rides for trainer Panagiotis A. Synnefias, and this horse's 55 average speed figure matches the top cluster in the field. The slightly lower rating than Follow the Fellow is what drops Re Markably to the place spot on our card, but she's very much in the mix and makes for a logical exacta saver.

show2Gianluca Be LuckyML 9/5

Gianluca Be Lucky (2) opens as the 9/5 morning-line favorite despite our model ranking him third in the field, which means the public sees something here we're pricing a bit differently. A 68.98 rating, 15% career win rate, and matching 55 average speed figure make this horse a solid show ticket at minimum. Charlie Marquez picks up the mount for trainer Juan Carlos Avila, and if pace heats up between the two top horses, Gianluca Be Lucky could sneak into the exotics by getting a clean trip.

Race 7

7:49 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

Cozy Rosie's 100% career win rate is eye-catching but the sample size almost certainly tells a story — Mid Summer's 86.35 top rating and Claude McGaughey's steady hand make this a quality turf route race with legitimate depth.

win1Mid SummerML 7/2

Mid Summer (1) tops the field with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating, a 20% career win rate, and an average speed figure of 54. Trainer Claude R. McGaughey III placing Jorge A. Vargas, Jr. aboard signals a serious effort at 7/2 — McGaughey doesn't take races like this casually. Over 1 1/16 miles on the Monmouth turf, horses with Mid Summer's combination of rating and class hold up well, and this figures to be a well-rated effort that's hard to beat on numbers alone.

place6Scarlett's HaloML 3/1

Scarlett's Halo (6) is trained by Chad Brown and carries a 76.88 rating with a 12% career win rate, making her the most intriguing secondary play in the race. Charlie Marquez handles the mount at 3/1, and Brown's turf runners often improve appreciably in their second and third starts at a given distance. The gap between Scarlett's Halo and Mid Summer is real but not insurmountable, especially in a two-turn turf race where trip and positioning can make up ground quickly.

show9My Lil FlirtML 4/1

My Lil Flirt (9) is the most fascinating horse on the board with a 37% career win rate — by far the highest in the field — and a 74.61 TrackWiz rating that supports the show selection. Trainer Kathleen O'Connell gets Cipriano Gil up at 4/1, and a horse that wins more than a third of its starts is not someone you fade lightly. The 74.61 rating is a touch below the top two picks, but the win rate suggests consistency that belongs in every multi-horse ticket.

Race 8

8:22 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

Aria D and trainer Patrick B. McBurney double up in this maiden turf sprint with two horses in the top four on our ratings — but the field of nine has enough depth to make the exotics genuinely interesting.

win1Aria DML 4/1

Aria D (1) tops the field with an 85.62 TrackWiz rating and an average speed figure of 55, the best posted figure in this nine-horse maiden sprint. Trainer Patrick B. McBurney pairs her with Jose C. Ferrer — a consistent Monmouth jockey — and for a first-time starter with no career wins, that rating and speed figure represent serious underlying quality. The 4/1 morning line is fair value given the rating edge, and a horse that has shown 55-figure ability in the morning deserves top billing.

place7Count My BlessingsML 5/1

Count My Blessings (7) posts a 73.82 TrackWiz rating and an average speed figure of 54, making her the second-best documented runner in the field. Trainer Holly L. Harris sends her out with Chantal Sutherland up — a combination that brings solid turf experience — and the 5/1 morning line offers genuine value if Aria D is overbet. For a maiden, having a 54 average speed figure is meaningful evidence that she can run on this surface and distance.

show4LucianaML 7/2

Luciana (4) rounds out the trainer McBurney trifecta play — she's the second McBurney runner alongside Aria D, checking in with a 73.42 rating and a 53 average speed figure. Jose Antonio Gomez is up at 7/2, and the stablemate angle with Aria D could mean a pace setup where one horse helps the other. When a trainer enters two horses and one clearly rates higher, the second often benefits from a perfect trip — Luciana fits that role and belongs on every trifecta ticket.

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Bottom line for August 16 at Monmouth: the turf is the place to be, Cool Spite is our strongest free play of the day, and the premium races offer some legitimate value spots that our model has flagged. Free picks for Races 1–3 are live now — subscribe to unlock the full eight-race card and all exotic ticket breakdowns before post time.

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