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Free Monmouth Park Picks & Predictions — August 15, 2026

August 15, 20268 racesAll Monmouth Park picks

Results are in — see the official Monmouth Park chart and payouts (our top pick won 2 of 8)→

It's a beautiful day at the Jersey Shore. Monmouth Park is running 8 races under clear skies and a comfortable 79°F, and the turf course figures to be playing lightning-fast after a dry stretch — keep that in mind when you're weighing pace scenarios on the grass races today.

The card has a little of everything: maiden specials on both surfaces to open things up, a healthy dose of claiming action in the middle races, and a Stakes showdown in Race 5 to give the afternoon some real teeth. Five of the eight races feature turf or a mile-plus trip, so stamina and surface versatility are going to be running themes all day long.

TrackWiz has crunched the numbers on every race. Three best bets are on the house — Races 1, 2, and 3 are fully unlocked — and our complete premium breakdown covers the rest of the card for subscribers.

3 Free Races at Monmouth Park

Race 1

4:50 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Turf

A maiden turf mile where the morning line tells the story — Loyal Prince opens as the 8/5 favorite in a field where every horse is still looking for that elusive first win, and the TrackWiz ratings back up the public's confidence.

win7Loyal PrinceML 8/5

Loyal Prince tops our TrackWiz ratings at 59 and carries the most generous speed figure in the field at 56 — a tick better than anyone else with a recorded number. Jose C. Ferrer gets the call for trainer Derek S. Ryan, and the 8/5 morning line suggests the market agrees this is the one to beat. On a one-mile turf trip, that edge in raw speed can translate directly into a comfortable winning margin if he breaks cleanly and settles into stride.

place3Perfect DreamML 3/1

Perfect Dream posts a 56.67 TrackWiz rating and sits at 3/1 on the morning line — solid value for a horse that figures to be right there at the top of the stretch. Chantal Sutherland is one of the more experienced riders in this field, which matters in a turf maiden where trip and positioning can be everything. If Loyal Prince gets tested early, Perfect Dream is the most likely beneficiary.

show6Captain CodyML 7/2

Captain Cody draws interest at 7/2 despite no published average speed figure — trainer John C. Servis has a long track record of placing horses in spots they can win, and a 55.83 TrackWiz rating is enough to keep this one in the exotic conversation. Luis R. Rivera, Jr. is a capable pilot, and a horse without a visible work tab can sometimes show up freshest when it matters most.

Race 2

5:22 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A six-furlong dirt claiming sprint where Peggysue I Love U's TrackWiz rating of 87 towers over the field, but trainer Wayne Potts saddles two horses — which one fires could shake up the exacta.

win4Peggysue I Love UML 3/1

Peggysue I Love U is the class standout in this field by a wide margin, posting an 87.08 TrackWiz rating and a career win rate of 25% — the highest in the race. Christian Maragh, one of the sharper riders at Monmouth, pilots her from the four-hole. At 3/1, there's still value here given the commanding rating edge, and her average speed figure of 55 leads all horses with complete data.

place3ProblematicaML 2/1

Problematica brings a 68.34 TrackWiz rating and a 21% career win percentage, and she has the benefit of a familiar barn — trainer Wayne Potts also handles the win pick, meaning the connections know exactly where both horses fit in the pace scenario. Luis R. Rivera, Jr. is live on this one at 2/1, and she's worth keying underneath Peggysue in exacta tickets as the most likely horse to run second.

show5Ree Nee's SixML 3/1

Ree Nee's Six rounds out the TrackWiz top three with a 57.59 rating at 3/1, giving her legitimate each-way appeal in what shapes up as a fairly honest pace scenario. Chantal Sutherland pilots for trainer Howard R. Brown, Jr., and a 15% career win rate isn't flashy but it shows this filly has found the winner's circle before. She's a solid show play and worth including in tri coverage.

Race 3

5:54 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Turf

The first-time starters on the short turf bring plenty of unknowns, but Last Hot Lover and Philly Ruckus are separated by less than half a point in our ratings — making this a tight two-horse battle at the top.

win3Last Hot LoverML 9/5

Last Hot Lover tops the TrackWiz ratings at 58.67 and carries the best average speed figure in the field at 56 — no other horse with a recorded number comes close. Pedro L. Cotto, Jr. rides for trainer Kathleen O'Connell, a combination worth noting in a short turf sprint where a quick early move can pay dividends. The 9/5 morning line reflects the public's confidence, and our numbers line up with that assessment.

place5Philly RuckusML 2/1

Philly Ruckus is nearly a coin flip with the top pick on paper — a 58.33 TrackWiz rating separates these two by less than half a point, and an average speed of 55 is right there with the top contender. Luis R. Rivera, Jr. rides for trainer Tony Wilson, who also saddles Perfect Tune in this race, suggesting the barn has done its homework on the pace shape. At 2/1 on the morning line, Philly Ruckus is a natural landing spot for exacta players looking to reverse the top two.

show6Victoria's SongML 3/1

Victoria's Song checks in at 56.67 on the TrackWiz scale — no average speed figure is listed, which adds some mystery, but trainer Kelly J. Breen has the experience to have this one ready for debut. At 3/1, she's worth including in tri boxes as a closer type who could pick up pieces if the two favorites get into a speed duel up front.

Our three free best bets give you a solid foundation for the early card. We open on the turf with Loyal Prince in the mile maiden special — he's the morning-line favorite at 8/5 and our ratings back the chalk here. Race 2 flips to the main track for a six-furlong claiming sprint, where Peggysue I Love U carries our highest rating of the free races at 87.08 — a figure that stands out sharply in this field. Then it's back to the turf for a quick five-furlong maiden sprint in Race 3, where Last Hot Lover lands at 9/5 on the morning line and projects well in what should be a pace-friendly trip.

One angle worth flagging across the free races: with the turf playing firm under these conditions, horses that can settle and make one late run figure to have an edge over front-runners who may be asked to do too much too soon. Watch the fractions in Race 1 closely — they'll set the tone for how the turf is playing all afternoon.

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Race 4

6:26 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

This dirt route claiming affair has a clear top two based on ratings, but No Denying brings a 40% career win rate that makes her a legitimate standout — the question is whether the pace sets up for a presser to get the jump on the field.

win2No DenyingML 7/2

No Denying's 40% career win percentage is the headline stat here — that's elite territory in a claiming field, and her 86.35 TrackWiz rating sits comfortably atop the leaderboard. Jose Antonio Gomez rides for trainer Devon Dougherty, and at 7/2 on the morning line, there's meaningful value given how the numbers align. Over a route distance of a mile and 70 yards on dirt, a horse who wins as often as she does tends to know how to get the job done.

place1Gwen to WinML 3/1

Gwen to Win rates second in our model at 81.64 with a 16% career win rate and an average speed of 54 — she's consistently competitive without necessarily closing the deal. Trainer Wayne Potts places her from the rail with Jose C. Ferrer up, a jockey who knows how to rate a horse in a route. She's a natural underneath play in exactas if No Denying takes command and this one runs her typical second.

show3SecuritylightningML 5/2

Securitylightning sits third in the TrackWiz ratings at 74.13 and opens at 5/2, making her the most interesting show play in the race from a value standpoint. Trainer Kathleen O'Connell also saddles Kathleen's Derby, so she's got a read on the pace shape here. Melissa Iorio can rate a horse patiently in a route, and if the top two hook up early, Securitylightning could be closing late for a piece of the pie.

Race 5

6:57 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Stakes company at a mile and a sixteenth on dirt — Bishops Bay opens as the 7/5 morning line chalk with a 57% career win rate and the top TrackWiz score, but East Avenue and Chunk of Gold are live enough to make this a trifecta worth playing deep.

win5Bishops BayML 7/5

Bishops Bay is the most accomplished horse in this field — a 57% career win rate is extraordinary, and his 89.42 TrackWiz rating leads the field by nearly three points. Trainer Brad H. Cox is one of the top conditioners in the country, and Luis R. Rivera, Jr. gets the mount at 7/5. The average speed figure of 55 is second-best among horses with data, and in a stakes field this size, that combination of class and consistency makes him a deserving short-priced favorite.

place1East AvenueML 9/5

East Avenue counters with an 86.88 TrackWiz rating and a 36% career win percentage — he's no slouch. Tyler Gaffalione, one of the best jockeys working today, pilots for Brendan P. Walsh, a trainer who routinely fires horses sharp. At 9/5, East Avenue isn't exactly a value play, but he's the safest underneath horse in the race and nearly impossible to leave off tickets.

show2Chunk of GoldML 3/1

Chunk of Gold rounds out the TrackWiz top three at 85.13 with a 27% career win rate — a legitimate horse who just happens to be up against two very live rivals. Jaime A. Torres rides for Ethan W. West, and at 3/1, there's a case to be made that he's the most price-friendly of the top trio. If the two favorites get into a pace duel, Chunk of Gold is perfectly positioned to pick up the pieces in the final turn.

Race 6

7:32 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A turf claiming sprint at five and a half furlongs where Precious Cat's 88.54 TrackWiz rating is the class of the field by a significant margin — but Lupine's blazing average speed of 59 is an eye-opener that could scramble the pace scenario.

win1Precious CatML 2/1

Precious Cat comes in with the highest TrackWiz rating in this field at 88.54 — a full 17 points clear of the third-highest horse — and an average speed figure of 55 that supports the dominance. Pedro L. Cotto, Jr. gets the mount for trainer Michael Dini, and a 20% career win rate shows this filly delivers when it counts. The 2/1 morning line is fair given her separation from the rest of the field, and she's the clear TrackWiz top choice.

place7Mya PapayaML 6/1

Mya Papaya rates second on the TrackWiz scale at 71.19, and at 6/1 on the morning line, she offers legitimate exacta value under the favorite. Trainer Wayne Potts also sends out Crimson Red in this race, giving the barn insight into how the pace might develop over this turf course. Jose C. Ferrer knows how to find a spot on the rail in a sprint, and Mya Papaya has the credentials to hold second in a field where the top horse is a clear class edge.

show6LupineML 3/1

Lupine's average speed figure of 59 is the highest in the entire field — a standout number in a turf sprint that will be decided in a matter of seconds. Trainer Devon Dougherty sends her out with Luis R. Rivera, Jr. aboard at 3/1, and a 16% career win rate shows she competes. If she can translate that raw speed into early position, she's got the ability to hang around for a piece at the end.

Race 7

8:05 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

A wide-open dirt route claiming race where Seeking Serenity's top rating is backed by a 25% career win rate — yet Infamy and Rachel Caroline are within striking distance, setting up a contentious mid-pack pace scenario.

win6Seeking SerenityML 4/1

Seeking Serenity tops the TrackWiz board at 85.62 and has won 25% of her career starts — the second-best win rate in this field behind Infamy. Luis R. Rivera, Jr. picks her up for trainer Devon Dougherty, a combination worth following at Monmouth. Her average speed of 54 is competitive for this class level, and over a mile and 70 yards, a horse with her seasoning and rating profile figures to be dangerous late.

place2InfamyML 4/1

Infamy brings a 33% career win rate — the best in the field — and a 69.44 TrackWiz rating that slots her comfortably into the exacta conversation. Jose Antonio Gomez rides for Michael V. Simone, and that win percentage says this filly has a knack for getting to the wire first. She's the most natural underneath play here, and at 4/1, pairing her with the top pick in exactas is the sensible move.

show3Rachel CarolineML 4/1

Rachel Caroline rates third in the field at 68.10 on the TrackWiz scale, though her 2% career win rate is a flag worth noting. What keeps her in the conversation is the combination of a live rider in Jose C. Ferrer and a rating that sits right below the top two — in a field where several horses have significant weaknesses, she has enough class to show up for a piece. Tri bettors should include her in coverage.

Race 8

8:38 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A maiden claiming field on the turf at a mile and a sixteenth where It's the Stones leads the TrackWiz ratings by a significant margin — though Lumber Legacy and Mr Hopkins are close enough on the line to make the exotics interesting.

win6It's the StonesML 4/1

It's the Stones carries an 85.62 TrackWiz rating — the highest in this nine-horse field by nearly 17 points — and trainer Kelly J. Breen has a reputation for getting maidens ready in spots they can win. Jose Antonio Gomez is a capable pilot who will keep this horse focused over the turf route. At 4/1 on the morning line, there's real value here given the rating gap, and this is the TrackWiz top pick with conviction.

place4Mr HopkinsML 5/2

Mr Hopkins rates second in the field at 68.29 with Luis R. Rivera, Jr. in the irons for trainer Amelia J. Green — a jockey-trainer combination that can get the most out of a turf maiden at a route distance. He opens at 5/2, which makes him the crowd's second choice, and that price reflects a horse who figures to be competitive if the top pick encounters any trouble. He's the natural exacta partner underneath the win pick.

show1Lumber LegacyML 2/1

Lumber Legacy sits third on the TrackWiz scale at 67.83 and is the morning line favorite at 2/1 — meaning the public may be ahead of our model on this one, or vice versa, which is exactly the kind of tension that makes a race worth watching. Chantal Sutherland rides for Jorge Delgado, and an average speed of 51 is modest but consistent. In a maiden claiming field at a mile and a sixteenth, consistency can be just as valuable as upside.

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Clear skies, firm turf, and a Stakes race anchoring the card — Monmouth Park is serving up a quality Saturday. Start with Loyal Prince, Peggysue I Love U, and Last Hot Lover in the free races, then let our premium analysis guide you through the rest, with Bishops Bay as the marquee play of the day. Full card breakdowns, exotic ticket builds, and pace projections are waiting for subscribers — check out our plans at /pricing and don't miss a race.

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