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Monmouth Park Picks & Predictions — August 22, 2026

August 22, 20268 racesAll Monmouth Park picks

Results are in — see the official Monmouth Park chart and payouts (our top pick won 1 of 8)→

Monmouth Park is running an 8-race card this Saturday under comfortable, overcast skies — 74°F with cloud cover keeping the heat manageable for horses and bettors alike. No rain in the mix, which is good news for the turf courses. Half the card is carded on the grass today, so surface preferences are going to matter.

The headliner is Race 7, a stakes event going 1 1/16 miles on the turf — Souper Zonda draws the eye at 4/1 on the morning line and grades out as our top-rated contender in that spot. Underneath the marquee, you've got a nice mix of maiden races, claiming battles, and allowance conditions to work through. Plenty of angles to find some value.

TrackWiz has full analysis across all 8 races. Three of those are unlocked for every reader — no subscription needed. The final five are part of our premium card breakdown, built for players who want the complete picture before they spend a dollar at the windows.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:50 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A deep ten-horse turf sprint with a clear class standout at the top but real firepower lurking underneath — the exotics could be juicy if the morning-line favorite gets beat.

win4DuboffML 2/1

Duboff is the standout in this field and it's not particularly close on the TrackWiz ratings — an 87.74 tops the field by five points. What really jumps off the page is a 40% career win rate, an elite figure for any horse at any level, and trainer Gregory Sacco knows how to spot a spot. At 2/1 on the morning line, this may not be a value play, but the profile screams 'bet to win' — back a horse with that win rate and the top rating without apology.

place5Gin's Beach RoadML 6/1

Gin's Beach Road is the most intriguing horse underneath. A TrackWiz rating of 82.71 is second-best in the race, yet trainer Mark Casse's runner opens at 6/1 — that's a legitimate overlay on a horse this well-rated. The 10% career win rate suggests this one likes to just miss, which makes it a natural 'place' profile in exotics, particularly in trifecta construction.

show8Dee's On DowML 4/1

Dee's On Dow brings a 33% career win rate and a 75.18 TrackWiz rating into this spot — both numbers hold up well in this field. Jockey Chantal Sutherland adds a professional touch at 4/1 on the morning line, making this a solid underneath piece for exacta and trifecta players looking to anchor their tickets.

Race 2

5:24 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A maiden sprint on the dirt where the field is full of first-timers and lightly raced fillies — workout watchers and TrackWiz ratings are the primary tools here.

win4Creative ThinkerML 7/2

Creative Thinker is the standout in this maiden field by a significant margin — an 86.35 TrackWiz rating clears the rest of the field by over 27 points. Trainer Chelsea Sims Rabadan has this filly ready to fire at 7/2 on the morning line, and with an average speed figure of 55, she's clocked better than several more-experienced rivals. In a field of first-timers and maiden types, this kind of rating edge is hard to dismiss.

place5She's a TwelveML 7/5

She's a Twelve comes in as the morning-line favorite at 7/5 — Kelly Breen is a sharp trainer who consistently puts his horses in a position to win fresh. An avg speed of 55 matches Creative Thinker's figure, and a 59.33 rating suggests she's not far off the top. Even if she gets edged for the win, she'll be right there, and at likely short odds, she makes sense as a key underneath horse.

show2Armstrong RoadML 3/1

Armstrong Road offers some intrigue at 3/1 — no average speed on file suggests this could be a well-maintained debut horse, which TrackWiz's 56.67 rating still rates as the third-best in the field. Trainer Eddie Owens Jr. and the steady hand of Jorge Vargas Jr. in the irons make this a legitimate show-ticket inclusion, especially in a wide-open maiden where the first-timer factor is unpredictable.

Race 3

5:51 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A maiden turf sprint packed with first-time starters and unraced types — Jersey's the Boss stands clear at the top of the ratings, but the green-as-grass field means anything can happen.

win2Jersey's the BossML 5/2

Jersey's the Boss owns the highest TrackWiz rating in this field at 87.81, a significant edge over the second-ranked Navesink Pirate at 65.49. Trainer Rory Huston sends this one out at 5/2 on the morning line — a relatively short price that reflects the barn's confidence. With an average speed of 54 and jockey Jose C. Ferrer aboard, the horse looks like a properly prepared debut runner with a clear class edge in what is an otherwise wide-open maiden field.

place5Navesink PirateML 7/2

Navesink Pirate represents some value at 7/2 — the 65.49 rating is second-best in the field and trainer Eddie Owens Jr. has a history of competitive debut turf runners. Jockey Christian Maragh is a polished rider who can navigate a green field, and in a maiden with plenty of unpredictable types, Pirate makes a strong case as the most reliable underneath option.

show3Hillsborough EightML 5/1

Hillsborough Eight at 5/1 rounds out the TrackWiz top three with a 61.82 rating — the Chuck Spina barn also runs U Dirty Dog in this spot, which suggests they're comfortable with the field. Chantal Sutherland takes the mount, an upgrade in the irons that shouldn't be overlooked. As a third-string option in exotics, this one offers some meat at that price.

The three free races today cover a nice cross-section of the card — a turf allowance optional claiming sprint to kick things off in Race 1, a dirt maiden special weight in Race 2, and another maiden event on the grass in Race 3. Our top picks in those spots — Duboff (2/1 ML, Race 1), Creative Thinker (7/2 ML, Race 2), and Jersey's the Boss (5/2 ML, Race 3) — all grade out in the upper 80s on the TrackWiz rating scale, which is a good sign this early on a card where the fields are still taking shape.

Worth noting: with the turf course under firm-to-good conditions on a dry, mild afternoon, horses that show a clean turf record and early tactical speed are worth prioritizing in the sprint distances. The 5 1/2-furlong turf configuration at Monmouth rewards horses that can settle just off the pace and pounce in the lane — keep that in mind when you're sizing up Duboff and Jersey's the Boss in particular.

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Race 4

6:22 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

This maiden claiming sprint is headlined by a pair of horses that rate well above the rest — Dylan Rose and By My Dreams look to fight it out, with the rest of the field playing for minor shares.

win3Dylan RoseML 5/1

Dylan Rose tops the TrackWiz ratings in this maiden claiming field at 84.17 despite opening at a generous 5/1 on the morning line — that's a price worth targeting. Trainer Rory Huston has been active and competitive on this card, and Christian Maragh's book of business at Monmouth puts a quality rider in the irons. The average speed of 52 holds up fine in this class, and the rating edge over the rest of the field outside of By My Dreams is substantial.

place4By My DreamsML 3/1

By My Dreams checks in at a solid 73.73 rating — trainer Juan Carlos Avila also enters Tarzan's Niece in this race, splitting his stable's chances. By My Dreams comes in with the better rating of the two Avila runners and an avg speed of 53 at 3/1 — she's the pick to be right behind Dylan Rose if the favorite fires. Melissa Iorio keeps the mount, and the 3/1 morning line is not particularly generous, so focus on underneath play here.

show5Tarzan's NieceML 5/2

Tarzan's Niece is the second Avila runner in this field and opens at 5/2 — the 57.50 rating is the third-best in the race, and with stable confidence potentially split between the two runners, there's a real chance she runs on for a piece. An average speed of 52 is competitive here, and Angel Morales knows this track well. She's a logical show inclusion to complete the superfecta.

Race 5

6:53 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A big, sprawling twelve-horse allowance optional claimer on the turf going a mile and a sixteenth — Chad Brown sends out multiple runners and the pace scenario figures to be complex with this kind of size.

win2MohsML 3/1

Mohs tops the TrackWiz ratings at 84.40 and opens at a reasonable 3/1 — trainer Patrick McBurney gets Chantal Sutherland aboard, a quality combo for a turf route. An average speed of 54 is among the better figures in this field, and a 19% career win rate on a horse with this rating profile suggests consistent competitiveness. In a complex multi-horse field, backing the highest-rated runner with a clear number advantage is often the right play.

place11RerallyML 6/1

Rerally is one to watch underneath at 6/1 — an 82.71 TrackWiz rating is just off Mohs' number and represents real value at that price. Wayne Potts has this horse ready to run and Sonny Leon, who has multiple mounts on the card and is clearly a go-to rider today, gets the call. A 23% career win rate and the second-best rating in the field make this a legitimate place contender.

show8Admiral MoML 4/1

Admiral Mo brings the highest career win percentage among the top-rated horses in this field at 44%, and a 76.89 TrackWiz rating is third-best in the race. Kelly Breen is a sharp conditioner and Jose Antonio Gomez rounds out the entry as a capable pilot. At 4/1, this horse is worth including in your exotics as the most likely 'closer' profile to hit the board in a field this large.

Race 6

7:24 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A short six-furlong dirt claiming sprint where the morning-line chalk is vulnerable — Mya Papaya's superior TrackWiz rating gives bettors a legitimate reason to sour on the short-priced favorite.

win3Mya PapayaML 5/2

Mya Papaya leads all TrackWiz ratings in this field at 87.81 — the top number in a six-horse claiming sprint is a meaningful edge, and Wayne Potts saddles this runner at 5/2, which is fair value given the rating. Sonny Leon, who is clearly the hot rider at this meet based on his volume of mounts, grabs this horse. An average speed of 54 is tied for the best in the field, and a 12% win rate won't scare anyone away from the pace angle.

place4InfamyML 5/1

Infamy at 5/1 is a legitimate value play underneath — a 77.54 TrackWiz rating and a 25% career win rate stand out in this field, and trainer Michael V. Simone puts Jorge Vargas Jr. up, one of the more reliable jockey-trainer combos at Monmouth. The avg speed of 54 matches the top horses in the field, which means pace-wise, Infamy can be right there at the top of the stretch.

show6Lady KhozML 4/1

Lady Khoz opens at 4/1 and owns a 75.20 TrackWiz rating — third-best in the field in what is a short six-horse field means she's right in the thick of it. Trainer Derek Ryan's runner hasn't won often at 5%, but this is a claiming race where the class bar is lower and the rating numbers carry more weight. Jose Ferrer picks up the mount, which is a professional addition to an already interesting bottom-three scenario.

Race 7

7:55 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

The stakes race is the marquee event on the card — an eleven-horse turf route featuring a legitimate star-studded field with Chad Brown sending out multiple runners and a clear standout atop the TrackWiz ratings.

win1Souper ZondaML 4/1

Souper Zonda is the pick here on the strength of an 85.62 TrackWiz rating and an eye-popping 54% career win rate — that figure is elite, and in a stakes field, it signals a horse that has been doing this at a high level consistently. Trainer Mark Casse and jockey Sonny Leon are a confident pairing, and an average speed of 55 is among the top in this race. The 4/1 morning line is fair given the win rate — this is a best-bet situation.

place6City GirlML 5/2

City Girl opens at 5/2 and owns a 76.85 TrackWiz rating alongside a 40% career win rate — Chad Brown's mare is clearly primed and in good form heading in. Jorge Vargas Jr. takes the reins for a trainer who sends horses to the post ready to fire. As a place pick at that price, she's not a screaming value play but represents a high-probability board finisher in a stakes field.

show2UnreasonableML 7/2

Unreasonable at 7/2 is the sneaky play in the exotics — a 75.39 TrackWiz rating is solid and that average speed figure of 58 is the highest in the entire field by a wide margin, which suggests this horse has shown real burst in prior efforts. Miguel Clement is a capable conditioner and Luis Rivera Jr. is up for the race. The win rate of 14% is modest, but in a stakes, the pace this horse can generate makes it a legit show ticket in any multi-race wager.

Race 8

8:26 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A tight six-horse dirt claiming sprint where the two morning-line co-favorites diverge sharply on TrackWiz ratings — Sofster is the clear top-rated horse, making this a relatively focused handicapping scenario.

win1SofsterML 5/2

Sofster leads the field with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating — the highest mark in a compact six-horse field gives this horse a meaningful advantage. Trainer Silvino Ramirez sends out a runner with an average speed of 54 and Christian Maragh gets the mount, a good combination for a front-end type. At 5/2 on the morning line, the price is workable given the rating edge, and a 13% career win rate in claiming company shouldn't deter from what is clearly a sharp runner on current form.

place2Don't Tell TammoML 7/2

Don't Tell Tammo rates second-best in this field at 77.07 and opens at 7/2 — Wayne Potts double-dips in this race and this is his stronger runner by the ratings. Sonny Leon takes the mount, which is no surprise given his activity level on this card. A 17% career win rate and a 54 avg speed make this a very viable underneath horse, and in a six-horse field, the place pool should pay reasonably well.

show3ProblematicaML 2/1

Problematica opens as the morning-line favorite at 2/1 despite a 66.40 TrackWiz rating that ranks third in the field behind Sofster and Don't Tell Tammo — that's a potentially vulnerable chalk situation. The 21% career win rate is the best of the three top-rated horses and trainer Wayne Potts has two entries in this race. At short odds, the show price won't be exciting, but for exacta/trifecta players, this horse sitting third in the ratings while likely going off as the favorite makes for interesting horizontal plays.

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Eight races, great weather, and a turf-heavy card with a stakes race as the centerpiece — Monmouth is serving up a solid Saturday. Duboff, Creative Thinker, and Jersey's the Boss are your free best bets to get started. For the full card including Souper Zonda in the stakes, pace projections, and exotic ticket strategies through Race 8, unlock the complete analysis with a TrackWiz subscription at /pricing. Good luck at the windows today.

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