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Monmouth Park Picks & Predictions — August 23, 2026

August 23, 20269 racesAll Monmouth Park picks

Results are in — see the official Monmouth Park chart and payouts (our top pick won 3 of 9)→

It's a beautiful Sunday at the Shore — clear skies, 78°F, and a 9-race card at Monmouth Park that gives you plenty of reasons to stay in your seat all afternoon. The turf course should be running fast and true under these conditions, and the dirt looks equally inviting with no rain in the picture.

Today's card is headlined by three stakes races — including a pair on the main track that figure to draw out some of the sharper horses in the mid-Atlantic circuit. Throw in a couple of turf routes, a few maiden sprints, and some competitive allowance optional claiming races, and you've got a full slate worth attacking from Race 1 to Race 9.

TrackWiz has broken down all 9 races. The first three are on us — free to every reader. The back half of the card, where the real money typically lives, is available to subscribers.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:50 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A wide-open turf sprint where the morning-line favorite and the TrackWiz top-rated horse are different horses — that split between public money and our model sets up an intriguing opener.

win2Red Head ItalianML 3/1

Red Head Italian earns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 87.08, a significant gap over the rest, and backs it up with a 20% career win rate that leads the field. Trainer Kelly J. Breen is a consistent presence at Monmouth, and Luis R. Rivera, Jr. is a capable pilot for a 5.5-furlong turf dash. At 3/1 on the morning line, this is a horse our model likes more than the public does — that's a sweet spot.

place3One Fine WineML 9/5

One Fine Wine draws the public's attention as the 9/5 morning-line favorite, and a TrackWiz rating of 75.71 justifies some of that confidence. Paco Lopez is one of the sharper turf riders in the Mid-Atlantic, and an avg speed figure of 53 is serviceable for this level. The question is whether the 13% career win rate can hold up under pressure — place coverage makes sense here.

show8Air MasqueML 6/1

Air Masque is the sneaky inclusion in the exotics at 6/1, posting the field's top average speed figure of 56 — that raw number stands out in a sprint. Benjamin W. Perkins, Jr. is a trainer worth noting in turf routes and sprints alike, and Melissa Iorio gives the horse a competent pilot. A TrackWiz rating of 68.46 makes this a legitimate show contender worth threading into your tickets.

Race 2

5:22 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

A maiden special weight on the dirt where the TrackWiz model and the morning line are pointing in opposite directions — our top-rated horse opens at 6/1, making this a potential value spot.

win6Why Me LordML 6/1

Why Me Lord is the standout here according to TrackWiz analysis, posting an 82.71 rating that's comfortably clear of the field. The 6/1 morning line is a gift if that number holds — trainer Wayne Potts also saddles the morning-line favorite Johnny Bay Goode, which could split some stable attention. Luis R. Rivera, Jr. gets the call, and a matching avg speed of 54 among a green maiden field gives this horse a solid floor.

place4J J PachecoML 5/2

J J Pacheco is the TrackWiz second-best in here at 73.25 and opens as the 5/2 second choice — that's a more accurate public read than the top pick. Trainer Cesar Alcala sends this one out with Charlie Marquez aboard, a reliable combination on the Monmouth dirt. The avg speed of 54 ties several others in the field, so pace scenario will matter, but J J Pacheco profiles as a horse that can find the board.

show7Garden GalML 6/1

Garden Gal at 6/1 is worth tucking into exotics — a TrackWiz rating of 59.48 puts her third overall in a maiden field where the back of the pack is bunched closely. Trainer Joan Milne keeps a small, competitive stable and Edwin Gonzalez gives her a live chance from outside. She's not a standout, but in a wide-open maiden, a 6/1 show price can offer real value.

Race 3

5:52 PM EDT

Stakes · 6 fur · Dirt

A stakes sprint on the dirt that shapes up as a two-horse battle at the top — Boardwalk Jack and Cairo Surprise are separated by barely one rating point and both carry elite numbers into this spot.

win3Boardwalk JackML 2/1

Boardwalk Jack gets the TrackWiz top rating at 88.54 and backs it up with the most impressive career profile in the field — a 42% win rate is exceptional by any measure. Jorge A. Vargas, Jr. is an aggressive, track-savvy rider who can dictate terms in a 6-furlong sprint, and an avg speed of 56 is the best among the main contenders. Trainer Eddie Owens, Jr. has multiple entries today, a sign of a barn that's fit and firing, and at 2/1 this horse figures to be right there at every call.

place5Cairo SurpriseML 6/5

Cairo Surprise is the morning-line favorite at 6/5 and for good reason — a 44% career win rate is the best in the field and an avg speed of 57 leads everyone. Paco Lopez is one of the top turf and dirt riders in the region and has the ability to put this horse in a perfect position. The TrackWiz rating of 87.19 is razor-thin behind Boardwalk Jack, making this a legitimate A/B situation at the top — Cairo Surprise absolutely belongs in your exotics.

show7St. ErlingML 6/1

St. Erling at 6/1 brings a solid 69.74 TrackWiz rating and gives Chantal Sutherland a live outside shot in a stakes sprint. The 12% career win rate is modest but the avg speed of 55 is competitive in this company. If the two chalk horses hook each other early, a closer like St. Erling could be the beneficiary — show or trifecta coverage is smart at that price.

Our three free races today give you a strong cross-section of what Monmouth is offering. We open on the turf with Red Head Italian (morning line 3/1, TrackWiz rating 87.08) in an Allowance Optional Claiming sprint — a nice spot to gauge early turf speed on what should be a firm surface. Then it's off to the dirt for a Maiden Special Weight at 6 furlongs where Why Me Lord (6/1 ML, rating 82.71) looks undervalued against a wide-open field — always keep an eye on maiden races where the morning line suggests a hidden edge.

The crown jewel of the free plays is Race 3, a 6-furlong dirt stakes where Boardwalk Jack (2/1 ML, rating 88.54) is our top-rated horse on the entire card among the free races. Stakes company on a fast Monmouth dirt track in ideal weather is exactly the setup a horse like this wants. These three races form a solid early foundation — and there's a case to be made for building a Pick 3 ticket around them.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:23 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A large maiden field on the dirt with zero career wins across the board — this is a wide-open debut-heavy situation where small rating separations and connections matter most.

win10Neela Da BlueML 3/1

Neela Da Blue tops the TrackWiz ratings in this 12-horse maiden field at 56.67 and draws the services of Paco Lopez — arguably the most important piece of the puzzle when handicapping debut runners. Trainer Kelly J. Breen has a strong reputation for getting first-time starters ready, and the 3/1 morning line reflects solid public confidence. Without published speed figures for some of these first-timers, Lopez's ground intelligence and Breen's barn condition are the tiebreakers.

place5Even UpML 4/1

Even Up comes in with a TrackWiz rating of 55 and an avg speed of 55 — matching several others but benefiting from the Eddie Owens, Jr. barn, which is one of the more active and productive outfits on the Monmouth circuit today. Jorge A. Vargas, Jr. gets the mount, giving Even Up a pilot who knows how to place a horse in traffic from a mid-pack post. At 4/1 the place price should be fair value.

show1SlickbackML 6/1

Slickback at 6/1 ties for the third-best TrackWiz rating in the field at 51.67, and the Jomar Torres/Lauren Robson combo is a solid lower-profile pairing worth noting. Without a published avg speed figure, there's genuine uncertainty, but the rating holds up and the price is right for show tickets and trifecta backups. In a maiden full of first-timers and limited data, spreading to three horses in the exotics is always the right approach.

Race 5

6:49 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Happy Offering dominates the TrackWiz ratings in this stakes route but faces a real pace test going 1 1/16 miles — the distance is the question mark on a horse that could easily run away from this field.

win6Happy OfferingML 3/2

Happy Offering posts a field-best TrackWiz rating of 89.27, the strongest number on today's entire card, and the 3/2 morning line confirms the public is aligned with our model. Trainer Chuck Spina has Happy Offering sharp and Paco Lopez gives this horse elite race management over a route distance. The 23% career win rate is solid for stakes company, and an avg speed of 54 holds up well against this field — this is a horse you build your tickets around.

place1J J Zo ZoML 7/2

J J Zo Zo is the most intriguing second choice here, posting a 75.68 TrackWiz rating and a 30% career win rate that stands out in a seven-horse field. Trainer Cesar Alcala sends him out with Charlie Marquez, and the 7/2 morning line reflects genuine public interest in a horse that could press the pace and stay on late in the route. If Happy Offering has any issue, J J Zo Zo is the most likely inheritor of the win — at minimum, a firm place selection.

show7WildncrazyguyML 10/1

Wildncrazyguy is the longshot value play for the show position, opening at 10/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 64.81 and a 20% career win rate. Trainer Anthony Lucas puts Jacqueline A. Davis on board, and the avg speed of 53 is within striking range of the top contenders. In a stakes route where pace scenarios can create all kinds of chaos in the stretch, a 10/1 show price on a horse with a decent win rate is worth a small investment in your exotics.

Race 6

7:18 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Allenhurst draws the top TrackWiz rating in a crowded allowance field, but a 3/1 morning line means the public has found this horse — the real intrigue is whether Cool Spite or Last Flag Flying can make it a three-way finish.

win6AllenhurstML 3/1

Allenhurst is the clear TrackWiz top pick at 87.08 and gets Angel Castillo, Jr.'s own son Angel Castillo in the irons — a tight trainer-jockey connection that often signals a confident, prepared effort. The 17% career win rate is workable, and an avg speed of 53 on the Monmouth dirt at six furlongs is right in the wheelhouse for this class of race. At 3/1, this is a case where our rating and the morning line are in agreement — that's a horse worth making your anchor.

place2Cool SpiteML 5/1

Cool Spite brings a 64.56 TrackWiz rating and a 14% career win rate to a race where she gets Chantal Sutherland, one of the more experienced riders in today's card. Trainer Chuck Spina also saddles the top pick, but Cool Spite gets her own clear identity — an avg speed of 54 puts her a tick above several mid-field rivals. The 5/1 morning line offers legitimate place value if Allenhurst absorbs early pressure.

show5Last Flag FlyingML 5/1

Last Flag Flying at 5/1 earns a 63.6 TrackWiz rating and a 28% career win rate that's actually strong for this class level. Jose C. Ferrer has been a steady presence for Chuck Spina all meet, and the avg speed of 53 keeps this horse in contention. With Allenhurst as the clear top, Last Flag Flying makes a smart trifecta and show-ticket addition at a fair price.

Race 7

7:49 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A 14-horse allowance turf route with two legitimate top-rated horses within less than half a point of each other — Frankie G and Gaelicheartofgold make this a toss-up at the top with real chaos below.

win3Frankie GML 5/1

Frankie G leads the TrackWiz ratings at 84.17 in a massive, contentious field and draws Ramon F. Moya for trainer Russell J. Cash — a pairing that's worth noting on the Monmouth turf. A 14% career win rate is honest in this company, and an avg speed of 53 holds up at a mile and a sixteenth on the grass. In a 14-horse field at 5/1 on the morning line, that rating gap over most of the field makes Frankie G a strong win-ticket anchor.

place13GaelicheartofgoldML 5/1

Gaelicheartofgold is within a whisker of the top spot at 83.69 and brings the field's best career win rate at 37% — a number that screams class and consistency. Paco Lopez is as good as it gets on the turf, and trainer Wayne Potts has a solid record in turf routes. The 5/1 morning line matches Frankie G, giving bettors a genuine two-horse debate at the top — Gaelicheartofgold fits comfortably in the place spot and deserves win consideration too.

show2Smuggler's GoldML 3/1

Smuggler's Gold at 3/1 is the morning-line favorite, meaning the public sees something our model slightly discounts — a TrackWiz rating of 77.06 is solid but ranks third behind the two top picks. Vincent Cheminaud is a highly skilled turf rider for trainer Cathal A. Lynch, who excels in grass routes, and the 14% career win rate is respectable. In a 14-horse field, the morning-line favorite landing third is absolutely a real scenario — Smuggler's Gold is the smart show and trifecta bridge.

Race 8

8:22 PM EDT

Stakes · 6 fur · Dirt

Two horses — La Resolana and Summer's Comin — are separated by less than half a rating point at the top of a nine-horse stakes sprint, setting up what could be a genuine pace battle between two class performers.

win2La ResolanaML 3/1

La Resolana tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.08 and carries a staggering 66% career win rate — by far the most dominant career record on today's entire card. Paco Lopez is the right rider for a 6-furlong stakes sprint, and trainer Jose Lozano Sanchez has this mare fit enough to compete at this level. At 3/1 on the morning line, there's fair value here for a horse our model rates as a clear top contender.

place7Summer's CominML 5/2

Summer's Comin is right on La Resolana's heels at 86.67 on the TrackWiz scale and opens as the 5/2 second choice — a strong public signal that this is a real race. Francisco Martinez gets a live mount for trainer Michael Dini, and a 25% career win rate with an avg speed of 55 makes Summer's Comin a legitimate threats to beat La Resolana, not just place behind her. This is a horse you absolutely want in your exotics and potentially on top in alternate win sequences.

show1HowlerML 6/1

Howler at 6/1 brings a 68.25 TrackWiz rating and a 27% career win rate that's genuinely competitive for stakes company. Vincent Cheminaud rides for the Cathal A. Lynch barn, and an avg speed of 55 matches the top two in raw number terms. If the top pair hook each other hard early, Howler's tactical flexibility gives him a clean path to the board — solid show and trifecta inclusion.

Race 9

8:50 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Turf

The nightcap at Monmouth is a maiden turf mile with a standout — Azario dominates the TrackWiz ratings at nearly 89 in a field where the second-best horse checks in almost 30 points lower.

win6AzarioML 8/5

Azario is as close to a slam dunk as maiden races get on paper — a TrackWiz rating of 89.12 is the best mark in this nine-horse field by a wide margin, and the 8/5 morning line confirms strong public support. Paco Lopez gets the mount for trainer Victor Carrasco, Jr., a combination that suggests this horse is meant to fire first time or coming off a tough prep. The avg speed of 53 on the turf is serviceable, and with that rating gap, Azario sets the standard here.

place4FoxiesbaymallowML 8/1

Foxiesbaymallow earns the second-best TrackWiz rating in the field at 58.77 and draws Edwin Gonzalez for trainer Tony Wilson in what could be a breakout effort at 8/1. The avg speed of 53 matches several rivals, but the rating separation from the mid-pack gives Foxiesbaymallow a defined edge for second money. In a maiden turf mile where closers can find clear lanes late, this profile fits the place role perfectly.

show5HowitzerML 3/1

Howitzer at 3/1 is the morning line's second choice and carries a TrackWiz rating of 56.67 — third in the field and close enough to Foxiesbaymallow to make the show spot competitive. Christian Maragh is a sharp tactical rider for trainer Timothy A. Hills, and an avg speed of 52 on the turf is workable at a flat mile. If Azario runs away from the field as expected, the show position becomes a genuine battle — Howitzer's public support and solid rating make him the logical third.

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All told, today's Monmouth card is a legitimate top-to-bottom card with real betting opportunities in nearly every race. Our top free plays — Red Head Italian, Why Me Lord, and Boardwalk Jack — give every reader a strong starting point. Subscribers get the full picture, including our highest-rated horse of the day and a complete exotic wagering strategy. Enjoy the sun, the racing, and good luck at the windows.

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