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Monmouth Park Picks & Predictions — August 28, 2026
Welcome to Monmouth Park on August 28th, where a six-race Friday card gives us a solid mix of turf routes, dirt sprints, and a little something for every angle player in the building. Cloudy skies and 80°F temps have the grass courses playing firm and fast — exactly the conditions that separate true turf horses from pretenders.
Three of today's six races are contested on the turf, and the pace setups on those routes look particularly interesting. We've also got a starter allowance sprint on the dirt that has the makings of a pace duel worth watching closely. Bottom line: this isn't a throwaway Friday card. There's real meat on the bone here.
Best Bets
Race 1
Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Turf
A wide-open maiden claimer on the turf where TrackWiz ratings separate the contenders from the pretenders — three horses stand well above the rest in a field where nobody has broken their maiden yet.
Too Many Mikes earns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 89.12 and draws the morning-line favoritism at 8/5, so the market and our model are in agreement here. Edwin Gonzalez gets the call in the irons, and with an average speed figure of 53 on a turf course that rewards consistency, this horse looks like the class of a soft maiden claiming field. In a race where every horse is still searching for their first win, the separation in ratings between Too Many Mikes and the rest of the field is meaningful — that 15-point gap over the next-closest rival Balitea is significant.
Balitea is the sneaky interesting piece of this race, carrying a 74.18 TrackWiz rating and going postward at 10/1 morning line — that's a potential overlay situation if the crowd underestimates her. Melissa Iorio rides, and with an average speed figure matching several of the lower-priced horses in the field, Balitea profiles as a logical place finisher in a race where the top three in our ratings are separated by less than 16 points.
Whiskey Whim sits third in our TrackWiz ratings at 73.71 and offers 6/1 morning-line value in a maiden field where the top of the market is bunched. Trainer Juan Carlos Avila saddles this one with Charlie Marquez up, and the combination of a competitive average speed figure of 53 and a solid rating make Whiskey Whim a reasonable exotic inclusion — especially in trifecta and superfecta tickets where getting the show spot right at a price can pay off nicely.
Race 2
Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt
A dirt claiming mile-plus test where Captain Oats and All the Luck both post elite TrackWiz ratings, setting up what looks like a genuine two-horse battle at the top — but Fratellone's 2/1 morning line demands attention in the pace scenario.
Captain Oats is our top-rated horse in this race at 87.81 and he backs it up with a 25% career win rate — that's the kind of number that says this horse actually knows how to finish first when conditions line up. Jorge A. Vargas, Jr. takes the mount for trainer Luis Rivera, Jr., and at 5/2 on the morning line, Captain Oats isn't a massive overlay but the combination of top rating, proven winning ability, and a legitimate jockey-trainer pairing makes him the most compelling selection in the field. The 1 mile and 70 yards on dirt suits a horse with a 54 average speed figure, and his class profile separates him from most of this field.
All the Luck sits just a tick behind Captain Oats at 85.90 in our ratings, and Jose C. Ferrer is a savvy hand who can navigate a longer dirt route. The 4% career win rate may look light, but in a claiming context what matters more is the horse's current form cycle, and the TrackWiz number says he's live — he's worth including underneath in exactas as a likely place finisher.
Fratellone is the morning-line favorite at 2/1, which means the public will be all over him, but our model ranks him third in the field at 82.18 — solid but not lights-out. Edwin Gonzalez rides for Juan Carlos Avila, and with a 16% career win rate and an average speed figure of 51, Fratellone can hang around long enough to hit the board even if he gets outrun at the wire by the top two. He's the kind of horse you want in your trifectas as the show piece.
Race 3
Starter Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt
Six furlongs of dirt starter allowance action where Guapo Again brings a standout TrackWiz rating and a 23% career win rate into a field that has a clear speed setup — but President Z's 26% career win rate adds a real competitive wrinkle.
Guapo Again is the horse to beat here, posting the field-best 87.81 TrackWiz rating while carrying a 23% career win rate that says this isn't a horse that just looks good on paper. Trainer Kelly J. Breen is a sharp conditioner who puts horses in spots where they can fire, and Edwin Gonzalez in the irons at 5/2 on the morning line gives you a legitimate win contender at a price that isn't insulting. The 55 average speed figure on dirt at six furlongs is exactly the profile you want in a sprint starter allowance, and our model is firmly behind this one.
Amazing Woo earned an 81.50 TrackWiz rating and goes to the gate at 5/1 for trainer Kathleen A. Demasi — a barn that knows how to place horses at Monmouth. The 17% career win rate gives him real credibility as a place option, and with Eliseo Ruiz riding, Amazing Woo figures to be stalking the early pace and making a run in the stretch. At 5/1, he's a great place-bet value if you're looking to fade the favorite slightly.
Shakin Loose brings the highest average speed figure in the field at 56, which in a six-furlong dirt sprint is a number worth circling. Jose C. Ferrer is one of the sharper jockeys on the Monmouth circuit, and trainer Wayne Potts also saddles President Z — meaning this barn has two live shots in the race. At 7/2 on the morning line, Shakin Loose is arguably the best speed figure in the race and worth including in all your exotic tickets.
Our three free races today span maiden claimers and a claiming route, and TrackWiz analysis likes the way the top picks line up. Too Many Mikes opens the card on the turf at 8/5 morning line — that's a legitimate price for a horse with an 89.12 TrackWiz rating in a maiden field. Watch the turf rail position early; with firm going expected, inside runners have been getting a nice advantage at this meeting.
On the dirt, Captain Oats (5/2, 87.81 rating) draws our attention in the mile-and-70-yard claimer — a distance that can expose pace-pressers if the early fractions get loose. And in Race 3, Guapo Again matches Captain Oats' 87.81 rating in the starter allowance sprint, where six furlongs on a fast Monmouth dirt track will reward whoever gets to the front cleanest. All three of these plays are fully unlocked and waiting for you below.
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Today's headline plays are Too Many Mikes on the turf to open, Captain Oats in the dirt route, and Guapo Again in the sprint — all free and fully detailed below. If you want the complete six-race breakdown with pace scenarios and exotic structures, full-card analysis is available to TrackWiz subscribers. Check out our plans at /pricing and get every angle before first post. Good luck out there — and remember, even the best cards have surprises. Play smart, size right, and enjoy the races.