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Mahoning Valley Race Course Picks & Predictions — November 9, 2026

November 9, 20268 racesAll Mahoning Valley Race Course picks

This card ran on November 9, 2026.

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Best bets at Mahoning Valley Race Course, November 9, 2026

Race 12Dress GoodML 3/112:15 PM EST

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Dress Good is our best bet on the free portion of today's card — the top-rated horse in Race 1 at 87.08, posting the field's fastest recent speed figure at 12.21 sec/furlong, and showing 1-for-10 dirt form with seven placings. At a morning line of 3/1 and a sim win percentage of 30%, this is exactly the kind of number-backed overlay we look for in an opener.

Conditions at Mahoning Valley are about as cooperative as a November day gets — partly cloudy, 50°F, and the dirt track should be running consistent without any weather-related drama. Eight races on the board, mixing claiming action with a pair of allowances, a starter allowance, and a maiden special weight for the first-time crowd. There's something for every type of player today.

The card has a sprint-heavy feel early before stretching out to a mile and 70 yards in Races 7 and 8, which sets up some interesting pace scenarios in the back half. Whether you're here for a quick win on Race 1 or grinding through the full card, there's legitimate value to dig into today.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:15 PM EST

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

The opener at Mahoning Valley looks like a two-horse show on paper, with Dress Good and Galantini separating themselves from the field on TrackWiz ratings — but the claiming tag keeps everyone honest in a wide-open sprint.

win2Dress GoodML 3/1

Dress Good is the class of this field with a TrackWiz rating of 87.08 — a full 10+ points clear of the second-ranked Galantini. The speed numbers back it up: she's clocked the fastest recent race speed in the field at 12.21 sec/furlong and has gone 1-for-10 on dirt with seven in-the-money finishes, showing real consistency on this surface. She's placed in each of her last two races and owns a 70% career in-the-money rate, which is elite for this level. Our simulations had her winning 30% of 10,000 races — well ahead of her 3/1 morning line and making her a solid win bet.

place4GalantiniML 5/2

Galantini checks in as the second-ranked horse (76.56 rating) and has the second-best recent race speed figure in the field at 12.42 sec/furlong. The consistency is real — she's placed in 4 of her last 6 starts and has 11 in-the-money finishes from 18 dirt races. The jockey/trainer grade combo is a slight question mark (C/B), but the form profile makes her a natural place horse.

show5Gunn's RoarML 7/2

Gunn's Roar is a show-ticket consideration thanks to a strong jockey-trainer connection: Jose Bracho and Jeffrey Radosevich have combined for a 28% win rate and 75% in-the-money rate over the past year — that's a potent barn angle worth respecting. She ranks third in recent race speed at 12.52 sec/furlong and carries an 'A' grade for both jockey and trainer. The red flags are real though — she's failed to place in her last 3 starts and has gone 0-for-2 at Mahoning Valley, so keep the ticket small.

We ran Race 1 10,000 times. Most wins:

2Dress Good30%
4Galantini26%
5Gunn's Roar15%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 1 is the one open to everyone, and Dress Good makes a compelling case as the day's first best bet. The key angle here is simple: best recent speed in the field at 12.21 sec/furlong — that's the fastest average time per furlong across recent starts, which on a 5½-furlong dirt sprint matters a lot. Add in seven in-the-money finishes from ten dirt starts and you've got a horse that knows how to compete on this surface. The 3/1 morning line gives you a fair shot at real value if the board cooperates.

With a partly cloudy sky and temps in the 50s, the Mahoning Valley dirt should play fair and honest today — no slop, no excuses. That consistency tends to reward horses with clean, verifiable speed numbers, which is exactly what TrackWiz analysis highlights in Dress Good's profile. Keep an eye on the opening race — it sets the tone for how the speed horses are faring on this surface all afternoon.

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

12:43 PM EST

Starter Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

Race 2 features a clear top-rated standout in Chess Not Checkers, but Don't Tell Tammo's fresh win and Canadian Bear's strong jockey-trainer combo could make life interesting at fair prices in this Starter Allowance.

win5Chess Not CheckersML 2/1

Chess Not Checkers is the runaway top-rated horse here at 88.54 — the highest mark in the field — and the fastest recent race speed figure to match at 12.20 sec/furlong. The Jose Bracho/Jeffrey Radosevich combo has been clicking at a 28% win rate and 75% in-the-money clip over the past year, which is one of the stronger connections on the card today. He won 36% of our 10,000 simulations, which makes the 2/1 morning line look fair rather than short. The only real knock is age — at 7, he's older than ideal — but the current form says he's still doing it.

place2Canadian BearML 5/2

Canadian Bear has the second-best TrackWiz rating in the field at 67.60 and benefits from a hot jockey-trainer pairing: Brandon Tapara and Jay Bernardini have teamed up for a 28% win rate and 69% ITM figure this past year. He's placed in 11 of 17 dirt starts and carries a 23% career win rate — solid credentials for a place ticket. The one concern is recent race speed, ranking 6th in the field, so he may need a good pace setup to get there.

show1ShieldmewithprayerML 5/1

Shieldmewithprayer sits third in the TrackWiz ratings at 61.99 and brings a 25% career win rate with solid dirt form — 7 wins and 15 in-the-money finishes from 26 dirt starts. He's also the third-fastest horse by recent race speed at 12.59 sec/furlong and has shown the ability to compete at this level consistently, with a 55% career in-the-money rate. At 5/1, he rounds out the exotics nicely as a show play.

We ran Race 2 10,000 times. Most wins:

5Chess Not Checkers36%
2Canadian Bear22%
1Shieldmewithprayer15%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

1:11 PM EST

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

A fascinating allowance tug-of-war between top-rated Hippy Gilmore and a morning-line favorite in Bukele — the rating gap favors Hippy Gilmore, but the 8/5 chalk commands respect in what shapes up as a competitive six-furlong affair.

win2Hippy GilmoreML 5/2

Hippy Gilmore is the top-rated horse in this field at 87.81, and his dirt form is as clean as it gets — placed in 6 of 6 career dirt starts, including the fastest recent race speed figure in the field at 12.21 sec/furlong. John McKee, riding with a 20% win rate and 53% ITM mark over the past year, gets the call in what looks like a good fit. Our sims had Hippy Gilmore winning 31% of the time, making him a deserving favorite despite the double-digit morning line suggesting some public skepticism.

place6BukeleML 8/5

Bukele is the morning-line favorite at 8/5 and second in the TrackWiz ratings at 83.07 — this is not a horse to dismiss. She's placed in 6 of 10 dirt races and clocks the second-fastest recent race speed in the field at 12.48 sec/furlong. Trainer Caryn Vecchio gets an 'A' grade and jockey Fernando Salazar Becerra has an 18% win rate and 54% ITM rate over the past year, so the connections are solid — expect her to be right there at the wire.

show3Killa CreedML 7/2

Killa Creed ranks third in both the TrackWiz ratings (60.39) and recent race speed (12.58 sec/furlong), and the jockey angle is worth highlighting — Chelsey Keiser sports a 19% win rate and 48% ITM figure over the past year. She's not flashy, but in a race where the top two could fight each other to a standstill, Killa Creed at 7/2 offers solid show value and exotics upside.

We ran Race 3 10,000 times. Most wins:

2Hippy Gilmore31%
6Bukele29%
3Killa Creed15%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 4

1:39 PM EST

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

Maiden special weights are always tricky — limited data, lots of guesswork — but Slingshot and Drill Sgt. Gabe stand out from the pack based on figures and connections, while Lord Buckeye offers a sneaky workout angle at a generous price.

win2SlingshotML 2/1

Slingshot tops the TrackWiz ratings at 58.33 and leads the field with the fastest recent race speed at 12.98 sec/furlong — meaningful in a maiden field where any competitive data points are valuable. Trainer Justin Radosevich earns an 'A' grade, and the 2/1 morning line reflects legitimate public confidence. He's checked in with a 50% in-the-money rate from prior starts, which is encouraging for a maiden. Our simulations had Slingshot winning 22% of the time, making him a reasonable favorite to back.

place8Drill Sgt. GabeML 5/2

Drill Sgt. Gabe is right behind at a 57.50 rating and brings the second-fastest recent race speed figure in the field at 13.29 sec/furlong. The jockey angle is strong — Erik Barbaran appears on today's Top 50 Jockeys list and has a 25% win rate with 66% ITM over the past year — that's one of the better riding stats on the card. He's posted a 50% in-the-money rate from prior starts and simulated wins in 20% of our 10,000 trials, making the 5/2 price worth playing in exotics.

show7Lord BuckeyeML 4/1

Lord Buckeye arrives from the same barn as Slingshot — trainer Justin Radosevich — and that two-pronged stable attack is worth noting. Jose Bracho, with a 23% win rate and 59% ITM figure this past year, gets the mount and brings legitimate horsemanship to what is otherwise a lightly-raced horse. Lord Buckeye clocked the second-best workout of the past month at 12.55 sec/furlong, suggesting he's ready to run — at 4/1, he's a logical piece in the trifecta.

We ran Race 4 10,000 times. Most wins:

2Slingshot22%
8Drill Sgt. Gabe20%
7Lord Buckeye15%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 5

2:07 PM EST

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Ten horses go in this six-furlong claimer and there's legitimate separation at the top — Instant Winner holds the highest TrackWiz rating but the morning line makes this look like a three-horse race with Kiddie Cocktail and Beachglass close behind.

win2Instant WinnerML 9/2

Instant Winner leads the TrackWiz ratings at 84.90 and posts the fastest recent race speed in the field at 12.54 sec/furlong — a meaningful edge in a ten-horse sprint. The jockey-trainer combination of Luis Raul Rivera and Michael Rone has connected at a 27% win rate and 64% ITM rate over the past year, which ranks among the better combo stats on the card. Rivera himself shows a 22% win rate and 60% ITM figure. The one blemish is a rough track record at Mahoning Valley — just 1 place from 5 starts here — but the overall form is too strong to fade. Our sims liked him at 21% wins.

place1Kiddie CocktailML 7/2

Kiddie Cocktail is second in the ratings (76.66) and second-fastest by recent race speed at 12.66 sec/furlong — she's been competitive and consistent, with a 60% career in-the-money rate and a 20% career win rate. The jockey-trainer combination of Fernando Salazar Becerra and Robert Gorham has posted a 21% win rate and 51% ITM figure over the past year. At 7/2, she's a natural place play who could easily find her way into the exacta.

show10BeachglassML 3/1

Beachglass is a interesting show play with legitimate place and even win potential. She ranks third in the ratings at 76.01 — separated from Instant Winner and Kiddie Cocktail by only a hair — and posts the third-fastest recent race speed at 12.87 sec/furlong. The Laureano Sosa/Timothy Hamm combo has fired at a 26% win rate and 68% ITM clip, and Sosa himself brings a 23% win rate to the table. At 3/1, she simulated winning in 20% of our trials, making the place/show prices genuinely attractive.

We ran Race 5 10,000 times. Most wins:

2Instant Winner21%
10Beachglass20%
1Kiddie Cocktail18%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 6

2:35 PM EST

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Thanks Frank dominates the speed figures in this 5.5-furlong claimer, but at 2/1, the question is whether the public is right or whether McVicker, Trikitraki, or Follow Your Dream can steal enough pace ground to cause an upset.

win6Thanks FrankML 2/1

Thanks Frank holds the top TrackWiz rating in this field at a commanding 88.54 — a full 19 points clear of the second-ranked McVicker — and backs it up with the fastest recent race speed at 12.21 sec/furlong. Luis Raul Rivera has a 22% win rate and 60% ITM rate over the past year, and he's placed in his last two starts with a 20% career win rate. Our simulations gave Thanks Frank a 30% win share, which essentially aligns with the 2/1 morning line — this is a horse the data strongly supports.

place4McVickerML 9/2

McVicker ranks second in TrackWiz ratings at 69.07 and clocks the second-fastest recent race speed at 12.29 sec/furlong — that's real speed in a sprint. Jose Bracho, one of the sharper riders on the circuit with a 23% win rate and 59% ITM over the past year, picks up the mount. He's also compiled a strong multiple-win record at today's surface and distance combo. At 9/2, he's a live place threat if Thanks Frank draws any heat early.

show2TrikitrakiML 3/1

Trikitraki checks in third in the ratings at 64.34 and offers an intriguing jockey-trainer angle — Brandon Tapara and Jay Bernardini have teamed for a 28% win rate and 69% ITM figure over the past year, one of the best combos on the card today. He's also a legitimate multiple-winner at today's surface and distance. The age concern (7 years old) and a short turnaround of only 20 days when he prefers 30+ are real flags, but at 3/1, he's worth including in exotics.

We ran Race 6 10,000 times. Most wins:

6Thanks Frank30%
2Trikitraki17%
4McVicker15%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 7

3:03 PM EST

Allowance · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

Race 7 sets up as a tense allowance duel between Ekati's Way and General Mathis — the top two in the ratings — with Ronnis Second Wind lurking as a dangerous pace-sensitive stalker around two turns.

win4Ekati's WayML 5/2

Ekati's Way tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 and brings an elite career profile — a 38% win rate and 61% in-the-money rate over his career, which are genuinely impressive numbers at the allowance level. Victor Fernandez gets the call and has combined with trainer Robert Cline at a 24% win rate and 72% ITM rate over the past year, with Fernandez himself sitting at 21% wins and 59% ITM. He ranks second in recent race speed at 12.59 sec/furlong and our simulations had him winning 27% of the time — solid support for a 5/2 morning line.

place3General MathisML EVN

General Mathis is the morning-line favorite at even money and owns the second-highest TrackWiz rating at 80.33 — the form argues he's worth the confidence. His consistency is remarkable: placed in his last 7 consecutive starts, with 9 wins from 20 dirt races. He also ranks third in recent race speed at 12.65 sec/furlong. The age concern is real — he's 9 years old — but the current form cycle screams that he's still running his race, making him a sturdy place selection.

show7Ronnis Second WindML 9/2

Ronnis Second Wind is the value piece in this race. He leads the field in recent race speed at 12.40 sec/furlong and has placed in each of his last 5 starts — an impressive active streak for a horse at 9/2 on the morning line. His overall dirt record (6 wins and 13 ITM from 20 starts) and a 31% career win rate round out a resume that belongs near the top of this field. Our sims had him winning 16% of the time, which suggests he's undervalued relative to his odds.

We ran Race 7 10,000 times. Most wins:

3General Mathis29%
4Ekati's Way27%
7Ronnis Second Wind16%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 8

3:31 PM EST

Starter Allowance · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

A ten-horse Starter Allowance mile that has a clear top-rated standout in Masakado, but St. Louie Louie and Patriarchal have strong enough form profiles to make this a trifecta worth playing — not just a single horse race.

win10MasakadoML 5/2

Masakado is the top-rated horse in this field at 87.81 and leads all starters with the fastest recent race speed at 12.49 sec/furlong — a figure he shares with Runningforjoy, though the overall rating edge belongs firmly to Masakado. He's posted 9 wins from 35 dirt starts with a 64% in-the-money rate, which is exceptional consistency at this level. Jose Vargas brings a steady 18% win rate and 53% ITM figure, and our simulations had Masakado winning 24% of 10,000 trials — well ahead of the field and worth backing at 5/2.

place2St. Louie LouieML 4/1

St. Louie Louie earns the second-highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 71.64 and owns a gorgeous consistency record — 7 wins from 32 dirt starts with a 68% career in-the-money rate. He's placed in his last 3 consecutive starts, suggesting he's fit and competitive right now. The age flag (6 years old) is noted, but current form trumps that concern, and at 4/1, he's one of the better place values on the card.

show6PatriarchalML 8/1

Patriarchal checks in with the third-highest TrackWiz rating at 69.31 and ranks third in recent race speed at 12.58 sec/furlong — consistent with a horse who runs his race every time. His overall dirt record of 10 wins from 41 starts and a 53% in-the-money rate show he competes hard at this level. Humberto Haldar has posted a 20% win rate and 52% ITM figure over the past year, and at 8/1, Patriarchal brings genuine show value with a trifecta upside that's hard to leave off the ticket.

We ran Race 8 10,000 times. Most wins:

10Masakado24%
2St. Louie Louie16%
1Reinvest13%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

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Bottom line: Dress Good is the play to start the day — strong speed figures, proven dirt form, and a 30% sim win rate at a workable 3/1 morning line. That's a solid foundation for a November afternoon at Mahoning Valley. Subscribers have the full eight-race breakdown ready to go, complete with pace angles, exotic structures, and every top pick from Race 2 through Race 8. Good luck at the windows.

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