Daily Picks

Mahoning Valley Race Course Picks & Predictions — November 10, 2026

November 10, 20268 racesAll Mahoning Valley Race Course picks

Best bets at Mahoning Valley Race Course today

Race 13Watch Me DaddyML 7/212:15 PM EST

Race 2 is free with an account, and the other 6 races are for members.

A free account opens race 2 too. Premium opens all 8, with AI ratings on every runner and SmartBet, which splits one bet across the horses you like.

Join Free See plans · from $9.99

Watch Me Daddy is our best bet among today's free races — posting the 2nd-fastest recent speed figure in Race 1 and drawing a jockey who's hit the board in 54% of rides over the past year, all at a workable 7/2 morning line. That's the kind of value-to-confidence ratio we want on a Tuesday card.

It's a clean, cool November afternoon at Mahoning Valley — 57°F, clear skies, dry track — the type of day where the dirt plays honest and speed figures hold up well. Eight races are on the board, all on the main dirt oval, stretching from sprints at 6 furlongs out to two route races at a mile. Plenty to dig into.

The card mixes claiming company in the majority of races with a Maiden Special Weight in Race 3 and an Allowance closer to cap the afternoon in Race 8. That variety means different handicapping lenses race to race — and our TrackWiz analysis has you covered across all eight.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:15 PM EST

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A wide-open mile on the dirt with the top four horses bunched closely in the ratings — Watch Me Daddy (86.35), Our Last Song (84.67), Kat Trax (83.96), and I Belong First (73.92) — meaning the exacta could go in almost any order. All five starters are listed as 'unproven' in terms of run style, so pace shape is a genuine wildcard.

win3Watch Me DaddyML 7/2

Watch Me Daddy earns the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 86.35 and ranks second for recent race speed at 12.54 seconds per furlong, right on the heels of Kat Trax. The dirt record is encouraging — three wins and a 65% in-the-money rate across 17 dirt starts — and jockey Fernando Salazar Becerra has posted an 18% win rate and landed in the money 54% of the time over the past year. At 7/2 on the morning line, there's a bit of value here relative to the favorite, and TrackWiz sims gave Watch Me Daddy a 22.53% win share across 10,000 trials.

place4Our Last SongML 8/5

Our Last Song is the morning-line favorite at 8/5 and second-ranked in the TrackWiz ratings at 84.67, backed by a 17% career win rate and solid dirt form with four wins in 19 dirt starts. The concern worth noting is her age — at seven years old, she's past the typical peak — but jockey Deshawn Parker and trainer Johanna Urieta have clicked together at a 19% win rate and 54% in-the-money clip over the past year, which is a connection worth respecting. She led our sims with a 26.80% win share, which supports her chalk status even if the price is short.

show2Kat TraxML 3/1

Kat Trax is as consistent as anyone in this field — she's placed in six consecutive races, owns a 66% career in-the-money rate, and ranks first for recent race speed at 12.53 seconds per furlong. The knock is that she's six years old and hasn't won at a high clip (13% career), but in a race where you're looking for a reliable exotic anchor, that sustained in-the-money streak makes her a solid show play at 3/1.

We ran Race 1 10,000 times. Most wins:

4Our Last Song27%
2Kat Trax24%
3Watch Me Daddy23%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 1 is your free look today, and Watch Me Daddy makes a compelling case at first glance. The 2nd-ranked recent pace figure in the field combined with a jockey carrying an 18% win rate and a 54% in-the-money clip gives this horse a real edge in what figures to be a competitive claiming opener. Our simulation has the horse winning nearly 23% of the time — well above what a 7/2 price implies. On a clear, fast-playing track like today's setup at Mahoning Valley, horses with legitimate recent speed tend to get their fair share, and Watch Me Daddy fits that profile.

The conditions are straightforward — good weather, no slop to shuffle the deck — which means the numbers should do most of the talking today. Trust the data, play the value.

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

12:43 PM EST

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Six furlongs of claiming action with Atlantic Firestorm holding a clear rating edge at 84.90 — well clear of the next tier — but the morning line has her priced at a generous 9/2 behind the 5/2 and 3/1 horses, setting up a potential overlay situation. The field has a mix of recent form and rising claimers, so sorting out who's moving the right direction at the right price is the key.

win3Atlantic FirestormML 9/2

Atlantic Firestorm sits atop the TrackWiz ratings at 84.90 and brings a strong jockey in Jose Bracho, who has won 23% of his mounts and hit the board 59% of the time over the past year — that's one of the better jockey profiles on today's card. She's third-fastest in recent race speed at 12.41 seconds per furlong and owns four wins and a 65% in-the-money rate across 17 dirt starts, so the surface is not a question. The legitimate concern is her age — at eight years old, she's past prime for most — and her workout rank was a middling fourth at 12.98 sec/furlong. Still, she won 23.75% of our 10,000 sims and the morning-line price of 9/2 is well above what her ratings suggest; that's a value spot.

place4CharlestonML 3/1

Charleston clocks the fastest recent race speed in the field at 12.26 seconds per furlong, which is a real edge over six furlongs, and jockey Erik Barbaran has been among the sharper riders at the meet with a 25% win rate and 66% in-the-money figure over the past year. The jockey-horse combo also carries those same numbers, which signals this pairing has worked before. The main caution is a claiming price bump from $10,000 to $15,000, but the raw speed numbers and rider quality make her a logical exotics play.

show5RhodesML 5/1

Rhodes ranks second in recent race speed at 12.29 seconds per furlong and has found the board in four of her last six outings, giving handicappers a reason to include her underneath in exactas and trifectas. The 25% career win rate is the best in this field, and while the jockey-horse combo win rate of 14% is modest, the 47% in-the-money figure keeps her in the mix. At 5/1 on the morning line, she's a reasonable show anchor with legitimate early foot.

We ran Race 2 10,000 times. Most wins:

3Atlantic Firestorm24%
4Charleston22%
1Bouncer18%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Free with an account

Open the next race free

A free account opens the first 2 races at every track, and every race at our Track of the Day. No credit card needed.

Create a free account Sign in

Full Card Analysis

Race 3

1:11 PM EST

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

A maiden special weight sprint where The Ace Project has separated himself from the pack in TrackWiz ratings — 89.12, nearly 34 points clear of the second-ranked horse — which is a rare kind of gap for a maiden field. The puzzle is that this is maiden company and form is inherently uncertain; the sims reflect the edge but anything can happen first time (or limited times) out.

win5The Ace ProjectML 8/5

The Ace Project is the most dominant top-rated horse we've seen on today's card, posting a TrackWiz score of 89.12 that's 34 points ahead of the second-ranked runner in this field. He posts the fastest recent race speed at 12.75 seconds per furlong and even cracks TrackWiz's Top 50 Horses list — a rare distinction in a maiden field. Jockey Victor Fernandez brings strong credentials at a 21% win rate and 59% in-the-money over the past year, and trainer Timothy Hamm grades out at an A. The one flag is rest: he's coming in on only 15 days between starts and the data suggest he runs better with 30-plus days of freshening, so that's a legitimate reason for some caution — but our sims still gave him a commanding 37.62% win share.

place3Snowie MidnightML 4/1

Snowie Midnight has limited race data — no career wins recorded and an average speed figure not available — which puts the emphasis on her workout profile, where she ranked second over the past month at 12.25 seconds per furlong. For maiden races, works can tell a meaningful story, and that figure puts her ahead of several rivals who do have race experience. At 4/1 on the morning line with a trainer in F. Hill Parker, she has enough of a foundation to justify a place ticket for exotics builders.

show1No Qualms About ItML 6/1

No Qualms About It draws attention primarily through connections — both jockey Chelsey Keiser and trainer Julie Pappada grade out at an A in TrackWiz's system, and Keiser has an impressive 19% win rate with a 48% in-the-money figure over the past year. Race data for this horse is thin (no average speed available, no in-the-money percentage listed), so this is largely a connections play. At 6/1, the price is fair for a show spot in a maiden race where experience and form are limited across the board.

We ran Race 3 10,000 times. Most wins:

5The Ace Project38%
3Snowie Midnight14%
2Flashy Idol14%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 4

1:39 PM EST

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Starcourt holds the top TrackWiz rating at 86.35 but is listed at 7/2 — behind the 5/2 All About Me — creating a slight overlay on the top-rated horse. Eight runners make this one of the more competitive claiming sprints on the card, and Float Away's consistent recent form adds a legitimate place threat from the outside post.

win4StarcourtML 7/2

Starcourt earns the top TrackWiz rating at 86.35, ranking third in recent race speed at 12.30 seconds per furlong, and has found the board in 17 of 34 dirt starts — a durable record. Jockey Fernando Salazar Becerra has an 18% win rate and 54% in-the-money clip over the past year, adding a reliable pair of hands. There's no standout concern in the data beyond a modest 8% career win rate, and TrackWiz sims gave Starcourt a 21.77% win share — competitive with the morning-line favorite at a better price point of 7/2.

place2All About MeML 5/2

All About Me is the second-ranked horse at 84.55 and owns the most eye-catching recent speed figure in the field — ranking first at 11.93 seconds per furlong, a half-step faster than anyone else. That kind of early zip over six furlongs can be decisive, and the five-win, 54% in-the-money mark across 24 dirt starts is a solid foundation. Trainer Julie Pappada and jockey Chelsey Keiser both grade at an A, with Keiser landing in the money 48% of the time over the past year. The age flag (six years old) is a minor knock, but the speed number is hard to ignore.

show8Float AwayML 3/1

Float Away comes into this race with momentum — she's hit the board in each of her last three starts, owns six wins in 24 dirt tries, and ranks second in recent race speed at 12.08 seconds per furlong. The 63% career in-the-money rate is the highest in this field, and trainer Lorenzo Juarez grades out at a B. The seven-year-old age concern is real, but horses with this kind of recent consistency in cheaper claiming company tend to keep showing up. At 3/1, she's a sensible show selection.

We ran Race 4 10,000 times. Most wins:

2All About Me26%
4Starcourt22%
8Float Away19%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 5

2:07 PM EST

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A twelve-horse claiming sprint that's one of the deepest and most chaotic races on the card — the top-rated Rascal Flash sits at 85.62 but morning-line favorite After Sunrise is priced at just 3/1 despite ranking third in TrackWiz's model. With this many runners and several horses showing spotty recent form, the trifecta could pay very well.

win6Rascal FlashML 4/1

Rascal Flash tops the TrackWiz ratings at 85.62 and ranks second for recent race speed at 12.72 seconds per furlong, which is solid in this large field. The jockey-trainer combo of Fernando Salazar Becerra and Robert Gorham has clicked at a 21% win rate and 51% in-the-money figure over the past year, and Salazar Becerra himself posts an 18% win rate on his own mounts. No major concerns pop out from the data — no age flags, no layoff issues — and the 4/1 morning-line price represents a mild overlay on the top-rated horse. TrackWiz sims put Rascal Flash at 21.43% — highest in the field.

place5VecchiML 8/1

Vecchi is an interesting underneath play at 8/1 morning line — the price is generous for a horse that has placed in 10 of 12 starts at Mahoning Valley Race Course, which is about as good a local track record as you'll find today. The 62% career in-the-money rate is elite for this level, and jockey Jose Bracho's 23% win rate and 59% in-the-money figure over the past year makes this one of the better rider-horse pairings in the race. No concerns appear in the data, and 10 of 12 in the money at today's track is simply hard to fade.

show9After SunriseML 3/1

After Sunrise is the morning-line favorite at 3/1 and ranks third in the TrackWiz model at 61.43 — a bit of a disconnect with her price. She earns the top recent race speed figure in the field at 12.68 seconds per furlong, which is a real edge in a sprint. The concern is consistency: she's placed in just one of her last six starts and has gone zero-for-two at Mahoning Valley. If you're including her, the show spot acknowledges her raw speed while hedging against the recent form issues.

We ran Race 5 10,000 times. Most wins:

6Rascal Flash21%
9After Sunrise15%
12Kozy K13%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 12 runners

Race 6

2:35 PM EST

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

All My Life holds the top TrackWiz rating at 87.08 in a nine-horse claiming sprint, but it's Gamboling Ghost who carries the best recent in-the-money streak in the field — five of the last five races — creating a layered race where the top two picks have very different profiles. The pace looks to have some early speed with Bingo's Grind posting the fastest recent race figure.

win3All My LifeML 3/1

All My Life is the class of this field on the TrackWiz model at 87.08 — a full 15 points clear of second-ranked Gamboling Ghost — and has placed in four consecutive races, showing she's currently in peak form. The dirt record backs it up: four wins and a 10-of-16 in-the-money rate across 16 dirt starts, with a 25% career win rate that's among the highest in today's field. Trainer Caryn Vecchio grades at an A, and while jockey Salazar Becerra's 18% win rate is modest, the horse's recent consistency drives the case. No major concerns appear in the data, making this one of the cleaner top-pick profiles on the card.

place4Gamboling GhostML 4/1

Gamboling Ghost has been as consistent as any horse on the card over recent starts — placed in five of his last five races and five of the last six — and owns 15 in-the-money finishes across 25 dirt tries. The wrinkle here is the layoff: at 48 days between races, the data shows this horse prefers shorter rest, with a 71.4% win-place-show rate on shorter turnarounds versus just 20% with 30-plus days off. That's a real flag to monitor, but the recent streak and strong dirt form make him a reasonable place play if he bounces back fresh.

show7Class ActorML 8/1

Class Actor ranks third in the TrackWiz ratings at 70.96 and has hit the board in each of his last five races — an in-the-money streak that's nearly as impressive as Gamboling Ghost's. He ranks third for recent race speed at 12.44 seconds per furlong, and the jockey-trainer combo of Elijah Greenidge and Jami Poole has connected at an 18% win rate and 51% in-the-money figure over the past year. The age concern (six years old) is noted, but the sustained recent form makes him a logical exotics inclusion at 8/1.

We ran Race 6 10,000 times. Most wins:

3All My Life23%
4Gamboling Ghost16%
2Sundaeswithsandy15%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 7

3:03 PM EST

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Sgt York tops the TrackWiz ratings at 84.73 in an eight-horse claiming sprint, but Spectacular d'Oro sits just two-tenths of a point behind at 82.91 with the best in-the-money rate in the field — 66% — and is priced as the co-favorite at 5/2. This shapes up as a tactical two-horse war at the top with a few live outsiders lurking, particularly Runaway Power's outstanding dirt consistency.

win5Sgt YorkML 4/1

Sgt York sits atop the TrackWiz ratings at 84.73 and brings one of the best jockeys on the card in Erik Barbaran, who has won 25% of his mounts and hit the board 66% of the time over the past year — elite numbers. The horse has placed in both of his last two races, suggesting he's coming into this spot in form, and owns two wins and nine in-the-money finishes across 18 dirt starts. The career win rate of 11% is modest, but the combination of top rating, in-form jockey, and recent momentum makes Sgt York the selection. TrackWiz sims gave him a 19.48% win share — well-supported.

place8Spectacular d'OroML 5/2

Spectacular d'Oro is a strong case for a place ticket at 5/2 — a 66% career in-the-money rate is the best in this field, and he's placed in four consecutive races, showing he knows how to find the board. He ranks second in recent race speed at 12.48 seconds per furlong and owns two wins in 12 dirt starts. The legitimate concern is a claiming price jump from $7,500 to $10,000, which puts him against slightly tougher company, but trainer David Wolochuk grades at an A and the recent form is undeniable. Our sims gave him a 22.93% win share — actually the highest in the race — making him a strong play for place.

show1Runaway PowerML 6/1

Runaway Power brings a truly impressive dirt profile to the show conversation — two wins and 13 in-the-money finishes across 17 dirt starts, which translates to a remarkable 76% in-the-money rate on the surface. He's placed in three of his last five and owns the third-best TrackWiz rating in the race at 82.71, just a hair below the top two. At 6/1, the price is attractive for a horse this consistent on dirt, and he makes an ideal show anchor in exactas and trifectas.

We ran Race 7 10,000 times. Most wins:

8Spectacular d'Oro23%
4Tap the Wind20%
5Sgt York19%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 8

3:31 PM EST

Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

An allowance mile on the dirt where Rich On the River holds the top TrackWiz rating at 82.71 but is priced at 6/1 — well above the 7/2 Sound City and 3/1 Run Bobby Run — suggesting the morning line may be undervaluing the top-rated horse. The race has a legitimate spread in the ratings, making the top three picks the core of any exotic play.

win4Rich On the RiverML 6/1

Rich On the River leads the TrackWiz ratings at 82.71 and ranks second for recent race speed at 12.57 seconds per furlong, backing up the model with real running ability. The career win rate of 20% and 60% in-the-money figure are strong for allowance company, and jockey Alexander Chavez brings a 20% win rate and 57% in-the-money mark over the past year. The concerns are worth acknowledging — he's coming in on only 17 days of rest and historically performs better with 30 or more days between starts, and he's listed as older than the field average. At 6/1 morning line despite top billing, though, there's real value here if he handles the short turnaround. Our sims gave him an 18.12% win share.

place1Sound CityML 7/2

Sound City is the second-ranked horse in TrackWiz ratings at 77.02 and owns the top recent race speed figure in the field at 12.43 seconds per furlong — meaningful over a mile where early positioning can pay off late. The jockey-trainer combo of Laureano Sosa and Timothy Hamm has connected at a 26% win rate and 68% in-the-money figure over the past year, which is one of the stronger combo stats on the entire card. The concern is a zero-for-two record at Mahoning Valley, so it's not like he owns the track — but the speed figure and connections give him a strong place case at 7/2.

show5Pure GrindingML 9/2

Pure Grinding ranks third in the TrackWiz model at 76.66 and has found the board in each of his last two races, arriving here with momentum. A 28% career win rate is the highest on the card today, and the two-wins-in-four-dirt-starts record shows he can convert when conditions line up. Jockey Erik Barbaran — who has been among the best riders on today's card, winning 25% of his mounts — provides another strong connection. At 9/2 morning line, he's a sensible show play in a race where the top three horses are closely rated.

We ran Race 8 10,000 times. Most wins:

1Sound City21%
4Rich On the River18%
5Pure Grinding18%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Premium Content

Get the Full Card Analysis

Unlock expert picks for every race, detailed speed figures, trainer angles, and our SmartBet recommendations.

View Plans Sign In

Bottom line for November 10 at Mahoning Valley: start with Watch Me Daddy in Race 1 as your free best bet — the numbers back it and the price is right on a clear, honest track. For the full card, The Ace Project in Race 3 is the standout sim performer and a race no serious player should skip. Eight races, good conditions, and plenty of angles to attack — subscribe to TrackWiz for the complete breakdown and let's have a day.

← All Mahoning Valley Race Course picks & predictions