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Mahoning Valley Race Course Picks & Predictions — November 5, 2026

November 5, 20268 racesAll Mahoning Valley Race Course picks

Best bets at Mahoning Valley Race Course today

Race 13BumpkinML 9/512:15 PM EST

Race 2 is free with an account, and the other 6 races are for members.

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Bumpkin is the best bet on the free side of today's card — Race 1, 5½ furlongs on the dirt, and our simulations have this horse winning at a 38.55% clip against a morning line of 9/5. That's value you can work with right out of the gate.

Conditions at Mahoning Valley are about as good as it gets for November. Clear skies, 61°F, and a fast dirt strip — the kind of day where speed figures hold up and pace scenarios play out cleanly. Eight races on the card, mixing claiming company across both sprint and route distances, with a pair of allowance spots rounding out the afternoon.

The card has some genuine intrigue buried in the premium races — an allowance mile that could get interesting late and a couple of claiming sprints where our jockey/trainer angle data is pointing hard at prices worth taking. More on those below.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:15 PM EST

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Race 1 at Mahoning Valley looks like a two-horse show on paper, with the morning line favorite backed by a massive rating gap over the rest of the field — but a pair of older speed figures in the mix keep things interesting at 5½ furlongs on the dirt.

win3BumpkinML 9/5

Bumpkin is the clear class of this field by TrackWiz's math, checking in with an 88.83 rating that laps the second-ranked Zakaria by over 20 points. The standout angle here is recent race speed — Bumpkin clocked the best pace in the field at 12.21 seconds per furlong, and the dirt record is hard to argue with: 4 wins and placed in 14 of 19 starts on the brown stuff. Jockey Alexander Chavez posts a 20% win rate over the past year and is in the money 57% of the time — a solid connection in a spot that looks tailor-made. Our simulations had Bumpkin winning 38.55% of 10,000 races, which dwarfs the implied probability of the 9/5 morning line.

place5ZakariaML 2/1

Zakaria comes in as the second-ranked horse (64.86 rating) and owns the second-fastest recent speed figure in this field at 12.37 sec/furlong. The 5½-furlong distance is familiar territory — 1 win and placed in 5 of 7 at that exact trip — and jockey Chelsey Keiser has been sharp over the past year with a 19% win rate. The main concern is age (8 years old), which is typically past peak, and the trainer grade is a C, so this is more a place play than a win bet.

show6Into GoldML 8/1

Into Gold slots in as a sensible show play at 8/1 morning line odds, ranking third in recent race speed (12.93 sec/furlong) among this group. The career dirt record is extensive — 8 wins and placed in 35 of 61 starts — and the jockey-horse combo has a 17% win rate together with a 51% in-the-money clip. The age concern (7 years old) is real, and the 13% career win rate isn't flashy, but there's enough seasoning here to land in the exotics.

We ran Race 1 10,000 times. Most wins:

3Bumpkin39%
5Zakaria23%
4Sammy and Shorty15%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 1 is your anchor play. Bumpkin leads all entrants in recent race speed — clocking in at 12.21 seconds per furlong — and the jockey aboard has posted a 20% win rate and hit the board in 57% of starts over the past year. In a 5½-furlong dirt sprint against claiming-level horses, top speed and a hot jockey is often the whole story. TrackWiz rates Bumpkin at 88.83, which is the highest raw rating on the free portion of the card. At 9/5 morning line, you're not getting a steal, but you are getting a legitimate edge-backed favorite — not just a chalk play.

The clear weather and firm footing today should keep things honest — no surface excuses for anyone in the field. When the track is clean and the figures are reliable, the horse that shows up with the best recent speed tends to earn its spot. Bumpkin earns that spot today.

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

12:43 PM EST

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A tightly bunched allowance-free claiming mile where the top two horses by TrackWiz rating are separated by less than a point, setting up a potential stretch duel between She's Chloe and Blumoon Fire while the rest of the field tries to hang on.

win5She's ChloeML 3/1

She's Chloe tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.08 and owns the fastest recent race speed figure in the field at 12.70 sec/furlong — a meaningful edge in a race where most rivals are grouped in a narrow speed band. She also cracked the TrackWiz Top 50 Horses List today, adding an extra layer of confidence to the selection. The 11% career win rate is modest, but a 44% in-the-money clip suggests she runs her race consistently. Our sims gave her a 27.17% win share, making the 3/1 morning line reasonable rather than generous.

place6Blumoon FireML 5/2

Blumoon Fire ranks second in this field (75.54 rating) and has been remarkably consistent of late — placed in the last 3 races. Jockey Deshawn Parker brings a 19% win rate and 56% in-the-money mark over the past year, and the 14% career win rate with a 42% in-the-money clip speaks to durability. The one flag is a claiming price jump from $4,000 to $7,500, which moves her up in class — something to watch, though recent form suggests she can handle it.

show4Long Tail SallyML 7/2

Long Tail Sally holds the third-highest rating in the field at 75.45 and brings the quiet positive of back-to-back in-the-money finishes into this spot. Trainer Susan L. Anderson grades out at a solid B, and while the career win rate (11%) and in-the-money mark (33%) are nothing spectacular, the recent form trend is pointing in the right direction. At 7/2 on the morning line, she offers decent show value in what could be a competitive mile.

We ran Race 2 10,000 times. Most wins:

5She's Chloe27%
6Blumoon Fire22%
4Long Tail Sally20%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

1:11 PM EST

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A competitive 6-furlong claiming dash where the top four horses are separated by just 15 rating points, and a pair of genuine speed horses at the top of the recent figures could force a hot pace that sets things up for anyone with stamina to spare.

win1Dos AmoresML 4/1

Dos Amores tops the field with an 85.62 TrackWiz rating despite not owning the fastest recent speed figure — what separates this horse is the connections. The jockey-trainer combo of Luis Raul Rivera and Michael L. Rone has clicked at a 27% win rate over the past year, finishing in the money 62% of the time, which is elite by any standard at this level. The dirt record is bulletproof: 4 wins and placed in 12 of 14 starts on the surface. Trainer Rone earns a TrackWiz 'A' grade, and Rivera is right behind at B+.

place4Hot CocoaML 7/2

Hot Cocoa sits second in our ratings (75.10) and owns the third-fastest recent speed figure at 12.59 sec/furlong, which keeps her in the conversation on a track where early speed matters over six furlongs. The dirt record is tidy — 3 wins and placed in 6 of 8 starts. The concern worth flagging is a claiming price increase from $10,000 to $15,000, meaning she's stepping up in class today — worth noting before loading her up.

show2Hop Away HottieML 3/1

Hop Away Hottie clocks in at a 74.93 rating with the second-fastest recent speed figure in the field (12.17 sec/furlong), which makes her very live for the exotics at 3/1. The career dirt record shows 7 wins in 31 starts and a 61% in-the-money rate — she runs her race. The knock is age (flagged at 6 years old as potentially past prime), but at this level the form still looks fresh enough to hit the board.

We ran Race 3 10,000 times. Most wins:

1Dos Amores23%
3Bah Humbug21%
2Hop Away Hottie21%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 4

1:39 PM EST

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Seven horses line up for a one-mile claiming test at Mahoning Valley, with the top two rated horses — Collator and Electioneering — holding a clear edge on the field, though a pair of class droppers lurking at mid-odds could complicate the exacta.

win2CollatorML 2/1

Collator sits atop the TrackWiz ratings at 88.54 and has been in the money for four straight races — a streak that immediately separates him from most of this field. The recent speed figure ranks second in the group at 12.53 sec/furlong, and the dirt record (2 wins, placed in 11 of 21 starts) shows he competes. Jockey Luis Alberto Batista grades at A- with a 20% win rate over the past year and 53% in-the-money. Our simulations gave Collator a 28.40% win share — the highest in the field.

place4ElectioneeringML 3/1

Electioneering ranks second in our ratings (85.31) with a strong jockey-trainer combination: Tapara and Bernardini have teamed up for a 28% win rate and 69% in-the-money clip over the past year — that's a sharp combo. Career dirt form shows 2 wins and placed in 7 of 11 starts, and the 63% in-the-money mark overall is the best in this field by a wide margin. The concern is a claiming price bump from $4,000 to $5,000 and the slowest recent speed figure in the group, so keep him in the place slot rather than chasing on top.

show6Have a CigarML 5/1

Have a Cigar drops in class from $7,500 to $5,000 and owns the fastest recent speed figure in the field at 12.42 sec/furlong — that's a potent combination at a mile. Jockey Humberto Haldar grades A- and has posted a 20% win rate and 53% in-the-money rate over the past year. A 20% career win rate with a 30% in-the-money mark isn't overwhelming, but catching this horse on a class drop with top recent speed makes him worth including in exacta and trifecta tickets.

We ran Race 4 10,000 times. Most wins:

2Collator28%
4Electioneering23%
6Have a Cigar15%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 5

2:07 PM EST

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Dirt

A nine-horse maiden special weight mile on the dirt where the top-rated horse is a slight overlay at 5/1, two horses are virtually tied for second in the ratings, and nobody in the field has broken their maiden — meaning form holds as much weight as potential.

win9Isa FortressML 5/1

Isa Fortress leads the TrackWiz field with an 84.17 rating and ranks third in recent race speed at 13.12 sec/furlong. The jockey-trainer combo of Fernando Salazar Becerra and Nestor Rivera has connected at a 20% win rate and 70% in-the-money mark over the past year — that 70% figure is exceptional for a claiming barn. While her 38% in-the-money rate and lack of a maiden win are par for this condition, our simulations gave her an 18.30% share of outcomes, and at 5/1 on the morning line, that's genuine value.

place7StoptalkingsarahML 4/1

Stoptalkingsarah rates second by a razor-thin margin (77.38) and brings the most encouraging recent form trend in the field — placed in five consecutive races. The dirt record is substantial: in the money in 8 of 15 starts on the surface. The speed figure (12.86 sec/furlong) is second in the group, which keeps her honest in a pace scenario. The concern is a subpar record at Mahoning Valley specifically (1 for 6 on the grounds), but the overall trajectory makes her a strong place contender.

show3Holiday CoalML 5/2

Holiday Coal is essentially deadlocked with Stoptalkingsarah in the ratings at 77.30 and owns the fastest recent speed figure in the field at 12.81 sec/furlong — a meaningful edge. Placed in 2 of 3 dirt starts and hit the board in 2 of her last 3 overall, suggesting she runs consistently. The only flag is that she's not on Lasix while eight rivals are — a potential stamina edge for the competition in a mile — but at 5/2 morning line odds with the best recent speed, she's a legitimate show bet.

We ran Race 5 10,000 times. Most wins:

3Holiday Coal21%
9Isa Fortress18%
7Stoptalkingsarah18%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 6

2:35 PM EST

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Lordbetwentothorns enters as a heavy morning-line favorite at 8/5 with a dominant TrackWiz rating, but a wide field of eight at 6 furlongs on the dirt means pace dynamics could make things interesting for a couple of overlays lurking in the mid-teens.

win8LordbetwentothornsML 8/5

Lordbetwentothorns is the standout here — an 89.12 TrackWiz rating that's the highest in the field, paired with the fastest recent speed figure on the card at 12.34 sec/furlong. The dirt record is thorough: 1 win and placed in 10 of 14 starts on the surface, giving him a 66% in-the-money mark that is comfortably the best among today's rivals. Jockey Jose A. Bracho grades out at an 'A' with a 22% win rate and 58% in-the-money clip over the past year. Our sims gave this horse a 33.95% win share — the kind of number that justifies even a short price.

place2El Canelo OneML 7/2

El Canelo One comes in with a 66.19 rating and has quietly been in the money in 4 of his last 6 races — solid consistency for a horse going off at 7/2. Jockey Victor Fernandez grades at an A with a 21% win rate and 59% in-the-money mark over the past year. The flag is recent race speed ranking seventh in the group, so he's not going to blow past rivals — but his consistent form makes him a reasonable place pick at a price that could offer some value in exactas.

show1Dublin TimeML 5/1

Dublin Time brings a compelling angle: he won last time out at today's surface and distance combination — 6 furlongs on the dirt — and drops in class from $16,000 to $10,000 today. That's a double-barreled positive that's hard to ignore. The 63.65 TrackWiz rating ranks third in the field, and jockey Brandon Tapara has a solid 18% win rate and 49% in-the-money clip over the past year. At 5/1, he's a natural fit for show and could easily hit the exacta.

We ran Race 6 10,000 times. Most wins:

8Lordbetwentothorns34%
2El Canelo One16%
6Thousand Cuts15%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 7

3:03 PM EST

Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

An allowance mile that shapes up as a potential upset spot — the top-rated horse checks in at under 85 and goes off at 9/2, while a couple of live ones at shorter odds make this more of a spread race than a single-horse ticket.

win4Pride and AttitudeML 9/2

Pride and Attitude tops the field with an 84.90 TrackWiz rating and has placed in three consecutive races coming in — a form trend that's hard to fade in an allowance spot. The career dirt record is extensive: in the money in 19 of 30 starts on the surface. Trainer Joseph Poole earns an A- grade, and while jockey Feliciano's grade is B-, the combo has connected at an 18% win rate. Our simulations gave Pride and Attitude a 22.96% win share — the highest of any horse in this field — making 9/2 a legitimate overlay.

place7Golden HaulML 7/2

Golden Haul slots in second in the ratings at 73.20 and owns the fastest recent speed figure in the field at 12.50 sec/furlong, which is a significant edge in an endurance race where early position matters. The jockey-trainer combination of Salazar Becerra and Rivera checks in at a 20% win rate and 70% in-the-money mark over the past year — that's a sharp duo. The concern is an 0-for-3 record at Mahoning Valley, though today's allowance conditions could level the playing field.

show5Sunny LionML 3/1

Sunny Lion rates third on our figures (61.43) and brings the second-fastest recent speed figure in the field at 12.57 sec/furlong. The career dirt record (2 wins, placed in 9 of 18 starts) is solid, and jockey Mauro Cedillo grades out at A-. The note in the data flags that he's transitioning from sprint races to this mile distance — that's a question mark, but the speed figure suggests he has the raw ability to stay competitive. At 3/1 morning line, he's a natural fit in exacta boxes and trifecta keying.

We ran Race 7 10,000 times. Most wins:

4Pride and Attitude23%
7Golden Haul20%
5Sunny Lion18%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 8

3:31 PM EST

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

A deep nine-horse allowance sprint at 6 furlongs where the top two rated horses — Red Chips and Trouble in Motown — are separated by just over 3 points and both own elite recent speed, setting up what looks like a straight pace duel down the stretch.

win2Red ChipsML 7/2

Red Chips tops the field with an 84.29 TrackWiz rating and owns the single fastest recent speed figure in the race at 12.24 sec/furlong — in a 6-furlong sprint, that early zip matters. The dirt record is impressive: 6 wins and placed in 14 of 21 starts on the surface, backed by a 66% in-the-money mark. Trainer Jeffrey Radosevich earns an 'A' TrackWiz grade, and Red Chips has been in the money in 4 of his last 6 races. The only knock is a poor recent workout (sixth out of six over the past month) — worth watching in the paddock, but the race form is too strong to dismiss.

place9Trouble in MotownML 6/1

Trouble in Motown rates second in this field at 81.16 and clocked the second-fastest recent speed figure at 12.25 sec/furlong — just a tick behind Red Chips. The dirt record is excellent: 4 wins and placed in 9 of 12 starts, with an in-the-money rate of 75% that is the best in the field. Trainer Justin Radosevich grades at 'A', and Trouble has been in the money in 4 of the last 6 races. At 6/1 morning line, the value case makes itself — our sims gave this horse a 16.32% win share, which is generous for the price.

show7Little VaqueroML 5/2

Little Vaquero sits third on our ratings (72.82) and has an outstanding record at Mahoning Valley specifically — 4 wins and placed in 8 of 11 starts right here on the grounds. Back-to-back in-the-money finishes keep the form current, and jockey Alexander Chavez brings a 20% win rate and 57% in-the-money mark over the past year. The age concern (6 years old, flagged as potentially past prime) is real, but familiarity with this venue at this distance makes Little Vaquero a smart show bet.

We ran Race 8 10,000 times. Most wins:

2Red Chips21%
7Little Vaquero17%
9Trouble in Motown16%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

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Bottom line: Bumpkin leads the charge in Race 1 with the top speed figure, a strong jockey, and a sim win percentage that justifies the favorite's tab. It's a clean, well-supported best bet to open your day. For the other seven races — including pace angles, longshot spots, and exotic structures — the full TrackWiz card analysis has you covered. Good luck out there today.

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