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Lone Star Picks & Predictions — September 19, 2026

September 19, 202613 racesAll Lone Star picks

It's trial day at Lone Star Park, and they're not messing around — 13 straight 400-yard quarter horse trials under a blazing Texas sun. Clear skies and 95°F on the thermometer mean the strip is going to be lightning-fast, and these horses are going to be running for their lives to punch a ticket to the finals. Every fraction matters when you've got roughly 20 seconds to make your case.

For the uninitiated: trials are qualifying races where horses earn spots in a championship final based on their finishing time or position. That means every trainer has their horse pointed specifically for today — expect sharp efforts all the way down the card. No throw-outs, no pacesetters coasting. This is a serious betting card for serious players.

TrackWiz has ratings and top picks locked in for all 13 races. Races 1–3 are open to everyone. Races 4–13 — including standout contenders like Jt Midlife Crisis (rated 90.00) and Apoliticalgolddigger (rated 89.71) — are part of our full premium breakdown.

Best Bets

Race 1

11:05 PM EDT

Trial · 400 yd · Dirt

A wide-open 400-yard trial with a clear ratings gap at the top — but the morning line tells a different story, making this one worth watching closely.

win6El Rey de ChilitosML 7/2

El Rey de Chilitos tops our TrackWiz ratings at 83.89, the highest mark in the field, and comes in at a reasonable 7/2 on the morning line. That combination of top rating and fair odds is exactly the angle we look for in trial races where form separation matters. Trainer Martin Rodriguez puts Alejandro Medina in the irons — a pairing worth noting in a sprint format where the break is everything.

place1Jc CaneloML 8/1

Jc Canelo carries an 8/1 morning line but backs it up with a 40% career win rate — the best in this field — and a TrackWiz rating of 79.79 that slots him solidly second. Victor Manuel Urieta, Jr. is a capable hand in the gate, and at those odds, Canelo offers real place-ticket value.

show10Mj WattersML 6/1

Mj Watters checks in with a 71.04 rating and draws the 10 hole, giving trainer Francisco Perez, Jr. a clean outside path. The 6/1 morning line is fair for a horse with enough ability to hit the board in a trial full of unknowns.

Race 2

11:31 PM EDT

Trial · 400 yd · Dirt

Three horses clustered above 80 on our ratings scale make this trial tighter than it looks — the favorite by the numbers is posting at 5/1, which is the real story here.

win6Jeg Fascination BML 5/1

Jeg Fascination B leads our TrackWiz ratings at 84.17 and is the top-rated horse in the field despite a 5/1 morning line — meaning the morning line compilers aren't fully on board yet, which could translate to overlay value at the windows. Trainer Jose U. Lopez puts Noe Castaneda up, and that 40% career win rate gives this runner real credentials in a trial format where consistency counts.

place7StaggeringcowboyML 5/2

Staggeringcowboy is right there at 82.55 and goes postward at 5/2 under Francisco Calderon for trainer Justin W. Joiner. A 33% career win rate is solid, and with a rating just two points off the top, this is a horse that can certainly finish ahead of the pack if the top pick stumbles.

show3Jet Two Is ArmedML 3/1

Jet Two Is Armed has the standout stat of the race — a 75% career win rate — and backs it up with an 80.87 TrackWiz rating. Trainer John A. Stinebaugh is active on this card and knows how to get horses ready; Ali Rivera in the irons adds a capable pilot. The 3/1 morning line reflects some respect, and this one is a must-include in exotics.

Race 3

11:57 PM EDT

Trial · 400 yd · Dirt

The morning-line favorite is actually the second-rated horse by our numbers, and the top-rated runner goes postward at 2/1 — this trial has a clear top tier, but unbeaten records lurking in the mid-field add intrigue.

win6Apollitical CowboyML 2/1

Apollitical Cowboy is our top pick at 80.83 and is correctly installed as the 2/1 morning-line favorite under Nestor Duran for trainer Isidro Hinojosa. A 33% career win rate sounds modest, but in a trial field this deep with unknowns, a horse with that level of consistency and a strong rating is exactly what you want to anchor your ticket.

place10DenhawkenML 8/1

Denhawken rates at 79.79 — essentially dead even with the top choice — and comes in from the outside 10 hole under Victor Manuel Urieta, Jr. for trainer Arnold G. Herrera. A 20% career win rate won't blow anyone away, but that rating says this horse belongs near the top, and the 8/1 morning line makes the place ticket look very attractive.

show4Natural Flyin CowboyML 3/1

Natural Flyin Cowboy posts a 78.33 rating and an impressive 50% career win rate for trainer Oscar Nunez, with Oliver E. Martinez aboard. That win rate is among the best of any horse near the top of the ratings in this race, and the 3/1 morning line is fair — this is a legitimate show-ticket anchor.

Our three free races set the tone early. El Rey de Chilitos (R1, ML 7/2, rated 83.89) is our top morning-line value in the opener — that price looks generous given the rating. Race 2 belongs to Jeg Fascination B, who comes in at 5/1 on the morning line with an 84.17 TrackWiz rating, making that one of the better overlay opportunities on the free side of the card. Apollitical Cowboy closes out the free races as the lukewarm favorite at 2/1 — the rating of 80.83 is solid but not dominant, so don't sleep on the field in Race 3.

The heat is a real factor worth tracking across all three. In conditions like today's — dry, packed dirt baking in triple-digit temps — early speed tends to hold up because the surface firms up and kickback is minimal. Horses that break clean and establish position in the first two jumps will have a major edge. Watch the gates closely.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

12:23 AM EDT

Trial · 400 yd · Dirt

The morning-line favorite sits third in our ratings — Moonlight On Aces is the TrackWiz top pick at 6/1, setting up a potential overlay in a trial that rewards doing your homework.

win9Moonlight On AcesML 6/1

Moonlight On Aces leads all runners with an 82.71 TrackWiz rating yet goes postward at 6/1 — that gap between our number and the morning line is exactly the kind of overlay we flag for value players. Trainer Richard D. Sedillo sends out this runner under Alejandro Medina, and a 25% career win rate is respectable. If the rating holds up in the gate, this is the best bet of the race.

place1Raptor StoneML 10/1

Raptor Stone rates at 74.06 — second best in the field — and carries a 14% career win rate for trainer Wendy Alejandra Garcia. The 10/1 morning line looks generous given the rating, and Rosendo E. Pina Garcia is comfortable in the gate on short-distance trials. A place ticket here at double-digit odds could be a nice return.

show2Coronado JessML 2/1

Coronado Jess is the 2/1 morning-line favorite but rates third at 71.67 in our model — that slight disconnect suggests the public may be a bit high on this runner. Still, trainer Jose A. Garcia and jockey Victor Manuel Urieta, Jr. are a productive pairing, and zero career wins against a moderate rating means the show spot is the safer play.

Race 5

12:49 AM EDT

Trial · 400 yd · Dirt

Jt Midlife Crisis looks like a runaway on paper — a 90 rating and 80% career win rate is rare in a trial field — but the even-money line means there's no value backing the chalk.

win1Jt Midlife CrisisML EVN

Jt Midlife Crisis is the standout of the entire card through five races — a 90.00 TrackWiz rating is the highest we've seen today, and an 80% career win rate is simply elite for this level. Trainer Marla Dayana Garcia puts Roman Cruz in the irons, and at even money, this is the rare case where you back the favorite not for value but because the number demands it. In a 400-yard trial, a horse this far ahead on ratings rarely gets outrun.

place9Miss ChilitosML 5/2

Miss Chilitos is a distant second in the ratings at 77.91 but still a clear class above most of the field, and a 50% career win rate under Oliver E. Martinez for trainer Oscar Nunez makes her the logical place choice. The 5/2 morning line is a fair price to bank on this filly finishing second behind the heavy favorite.

show8Lil Ferrari WagonML 10/1

Lil Ferrari Wagon comes in at 53.48 in our ratings and shows a 33% career win rate for trainer Brittany N. Tellez with Luis L. Vivanco aboard. With the top two horses likely to run 1-2, this runner at 10/1 represents the best available show value in a trial where the back half of the field is thin.

Race 6

1:15 AM EDT

Trial · 400 yd · Dirt

Cosimabadmammajamma comes in as both the morning-line chalk and the clear ratings leader — the real question is whether the 7/5 price is worth playing or if you look for value underneath.

win7CosimabadmammajammaML 7/5

Cosimabadmammajamma tops the field with an 89.42 TrackWiz rating — the second-highest mark on the entire card today — and sports a 50% career win rate that backs up the number. Trainer Jose U. Lopez and jockey Noe Castaneda are a combination worth respecting, and while 7/5 is short, the separation between this horse and the rest of the field justifies the price. In sprint trials, a dominant rating like this tends to hold up.

place6Our Eagle Has LandedML 6/1

Our Eagle Has Landed rates 78.32 and carries a legitimate 50% career win rate for trainer Victor G. Fierro, with Claudio Ponce Aguilar in the irons. That win rate is identical to the race favorite's, which means this runner has won half its career starts — not a horse to dismiss at 6/1. The place ticket on this one has real appeal.

show9Cajuns 123ML 5/2

Cajuns 123 rates 77.17 and also posts a 50% career win rate for trainer Bobby Muniz Pena under Victor Manuel Urieta, Jr. Three horses in this race carrying 50% career win rates is unusual, and with the top two clear on ratings, this one at 5/2 fills out the show spot nicely. Include in all exacta and trifecta tickets.

Race 7

1:41 AM EDT

Trial · 400 yd · Dirt

Two horses separated by less than a point at the top of the ratings — Mister Carter and Expensive Toro are set for what shapes up as a two-horse duel at 9/5 and 6/5 respectively.

win10Mister CarterML 9/5

Mister Carter leads our TrackWiz ratings at 88.83 and goes as the slight morning-line second choice at 9/5 behind Expensive Toro, which is where the value edge lives. Trainer Rene Talamantes sends out Rosendo E. Pina Garcia, who is active all card long and comfortable in short-distance trials. A 25% career win rate is the one soft spot in the profile, but the rating number is what carries the selection.

place7Expensive ToroML 6/5

Expensive Toro is the 6/5 morning-line favorite and rates a razor-thin 88.21 — just 0.62 points behind our top pick. Trainer Heber Deyta-Melendez gives Ruben Castro the mount, and a 33% career win rate is solid in this format. At 6/5 the win price is thin, but the place line should offer something workable, and this horse is too talented to leave off your tickets.

show8Flight HistoryML 5/1

Flight History rates 72.17 with a 50% career win rate — the best rate among the field outside the top two — and goes at a generous 5/1 for trainer Kash Reed under Francisco Calderon. That career win percentage tells you this horse knows how to finish races, and in a race where the two favorites will be pressing each other hard, a closer with that kind of record is a smart show play.

Race 8

2:07 AM EDT

Trial · 400 yd · Dirt

Apoliticalgolddigger is the class of the field with a 100% career win rate — unbeaten — but the 6/5 price compresses the value and makes the place-and-show structure the smarter play.

win5ApoliticalgolddiggerML 6/5

Apoliticalgolddigger is the most eye-catching horse on the card — a 100% career win rate paired with the top TrackWiz rating of 89.71 in this field. Trainer Waylan Melton puts Juan Pulido in the irons, and this runner simply hasn't lost. In a 400-yard trial where gate speed is everything, an undefeated horse rated this high is as close to a sure thing as you'll find — though racing always has a way of humbling certainty.

place4Mr Jet FeesML 9/5

Mr Jet Fees rates 78.44 and carries a 42% career win rate for trainer Jimmy W. Guerra under Raul Ramirez, Jr. — that win percentage is among the higher marks for a mid-rated horse on today's card. The 9/5 morning line suggests the crowd views this as the main rival, and the place ticket is the way to use this runner without paying a chalk price.

show8Rgs DebutantML 6/1

Rgs Debutant checks in at 74.78 with a 25% career win rate for trainer Steven W Jordan under James A. Flores. The 6/1 price is fair value for a horse that rates third in the field, and with the top two horses likely to dominate, hitting the show spot here at that odds level could add meaningful profit to an otherwise straightforward race.

Race 9

2:33 AM EDT

Trial · 400 yd · Dirt

A compact top tier — three horses within two points of each other on ratings, all with win percentages north of 50% — makes this one of the most competitive trials on the card.

win2Coronas First CowboyML 9/5

Coronas First Cowboy earns the TrackWiz top rating at 88.20 and backs it up with a 62% career win rate — the best in the field among the top contenders. Trainer Marc E. Jungers and jockey Luis L. Vivanco are a combination worth noting, and at 9/5, the morning line is fair for the class of the race. In a tight field like this, the horse with the highest win rate and the top rating gets the nod.

place5Cowboys Love WineML 3/1

Cowboys Love Wine rates 87.08 — just one point off the leader — and posts a 50% career win rate for trainer John A. Stinebaugh, one of the more active conditioners on this card. Ali Rivera takes the mount, and at 3/1, there's legitimate place value here. This horse has the profile to beat the favorite outright on any given day.

show1Ali CattML 7/2

Ali Catt rates 76.21 and, importantly, carries a 60% career win rate — the highest of any horse in this race. Trainer Abraham Carrillo sends out Jose R. Herbert, and though the rating sits a tier below the top two, that career win percentage is impossible to ignore. At 7/2, this is a show play with upside and an interesting exacta underneath option.

Race 10

2:59 AM EDT

Trial · 400 yd · Dirt

Kissin Country Chick and Indefensible are separated by less than a point at the top — pick your poison between a 66% career winner and a 20% winner with the edge on ratings.

win5Kissin Country ChickML 5/2

Kissin Country Chick leads our TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 and gets the nod over the morning-line favorite Indefensible by less than a point. Trainer Luz Chavira sends out Cordarelton J. Benn, and while the 20% career win rate is the lone concern, the rating edge is enough to make this our top selection. The 5/2 morning line gives us fair value over the chalk.

place2IndefensibleML 8/5

Indefensible is the 8/5 morning-line favorite and rates 86.93 — essentially tied at the top of this field. Trainer Raul Ramirez pairs with Sergio Becerra, Jr., and that 66% career win rate is the most compelling number in the race. If you're betting the place, this horse checks every box and the price should be workable.

show8Jmg Dashin MondayML 12/1

Jmg Dashin Monday rates 68.98 and shows a 25% career win rate for trainer Leonardo Rivera-Antopia under H. Javier Hernandez. The 12/1 morning line is the key — this is a horse rated clearly third in the field at big-number odds, making the show ticket a legitimate overlay play. In a race where the top two will likely run themselves into the ground, this one can scoop third.

Race 11

3:25 AM EDT

Trial · 400 yd · Dirt

First Tartanero Jess carries the top rating and a 66% career win rate at 5/2 — the morning line undervalues the class edge here, which is the angle to play.

win2First Tartanero JessML 5/2

First Tartanero Jess tops the field at 87.81 with a 66% career win rate — two-thirds of career starts ending in victory is exceptional for a trial runner. Trainer Victor G. Fierro pairs with Claudio Ponce Aguilar, and at 5/2, the morning line may actually be giving us a slight overlay given how dominant the rating and win rate are. This is a horse that runs to the board consistently.

place3Awesome Eagle VML 2/1

Awesome Eagle V rates 76.88 and is installed as the 2/1 morning-line second choice under Leonardo Rodriguez for trainer Jose U. Lopez. The 33% career win rate is solid, and with a rating gap of over 10 points from the leader, this one profiles as a strong place horse — willing to hit the board but likely a step below the top selection.

show6Starlink ClusterML 7/2

Starlink Cluster rates 55.83 and goes at 7/2 for trainer Raul Ramirez under Sergio Becerra, Jr. The rating sits below the top two, but in a trial where the field thins out quickly, a horse with a 55+ rating at 7/2 is a tradeable show price. The zero career wins is the caveat, but the rating says ability is there.

Race 12

3:51 AM EDT

Trial · 400 yd · Dirt

Dk Marney 123 is the clear ratings leader at 89.42 but goes off at just 7/5 — the top horse on the card closes out the night with the strongest number, though value players will look to the place and show.

win8Dk Marney 123ML 7/5

Dk Marney 123 tops this field with an 89.42 TrackWiz rating — tied for the second-highest mark on the entire card today — and is correctly installed as the 7/5 morning-line favorite under Victor Manuel Urieta, Jr. for trainer Miguel Pizana. The 16% career win rate is the soft spot, but the rating number speaks louder in trial form, and Urieta is one of the most active jockeys on this card. At 7/5, the win bet is thin but the selection is clear.

place10Cyber IntelligenceML 6/1

Cyber Intelligence rates 65.91 and draws a clean outside post for trainer Gilberto Gonzalez under Jose R. Herbert. The 6/1 morning line on a horse that rates second in the field by our numbers is where the value lives in this race — zero career wins is a flag, but the rating says this runner belongs near the top of the order.

show9County TimeML 5/1

County Time rates 65.41 and goes at 5/1 for trainer Juan Ignacio Garcia under Oliver E. Martinez. The rating puts this runner in a virtual dead heat with the place pick for second-best in the field, and at 5/1, the show ticket is a legitimate overlay when you consider the ratings cluster. A savvy closer angle to round out your trifecta.

Race 13

4:17 AM EDT

Trial · 400 yd · Dirt

Tahitis French Kiss dominates the ratings in the card-closing trial and brings the best win percentage among the serious contenders — this one looks like a strong way to finish the night.

win6Tahitis French KissML 3/1

Tahitis French Kiss tops the field with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating and a remarkable 57% career win rate — meaning this horse has won more than half its starts. Trainer Haley N. Hobbs puts Fernando Fonseca-Soto in the irons, and the 3/1 morning line gives us genuine value for the class of the race. In the card closer, a horse with this kind of win rate and a commanding ratings edge is exactly what you want.

place3Senor Quintero LoML 7/2

Senor Quintero Lo rates 74.91 — a clear second in the field — and goes at a fair 7/2 morning line under Ruben Castro for trainer Samuel Mendoza. A 20% career win rate keeps expectations measured, but the rating says this horse belongs in the money, and that odds price is worth including in exacta combinations underneath the top pick.

show5Bp History MakerML 5/2

Bp History Maker rates 57.50 and carries a 100% career win rate for trainer Kash Reed under Juan Pulido — undefeated, which is always a conversation-starter. The 5/2 morning line reflects some public respect for the unbeaten record, and while the rating sits below the top two, a horse that hasn't lost is a smart show inclusion. Worth stacking in your trifecta.

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Thirteen trials, one scorching afternoon, and a card loaded with quarter horses ready to run the hair off the ball. El Rey de Chilitos, Jeg Fascination B, and Apollitical Cowboy are your free best bets to start the day — but the marquee action is deeper in the card. Subscribers get every angle, every race, every ticket. Don't go in blind on a trial card this deep.

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