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Lone Star Picks & Predictions — September 18, 2026

September 18, 20269 racesAll Lone Star picks

It's a hot one at Lone Star Park today — clear skies and 95°F mean the track is baking fast, and conditions like these historically favor horses that break sharp and get to the front early. Nine races are on the board, and this card has some real meat on it.

The headline story is a quartet of 440-yard Trials running back-to-back in Races 5 through 8. These aren't just regular overnight dashes — Trial results carry real implications for bigger races down the road, so connections are putting their best feet forward. Expect sharp horses, sharp jockeys, and some serious wagering action in those middle races.

Before we get there, the card opens with three Maiden races giving everyone a chance to find some value before the bigger spots heat up. Three of today's nine races are available free to all TrackWiz readers, so whether you're a subscriber or just checking us out, there's plenty to dig into.

Best Bets

Race 1

11:05 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 300 yd · Dirt

A sprawling 12-horse maiden claiming sprint at 300 yards with a clear TrackWiz rating separation at the top — one horse stands well above the field while the morning line favorite sits well below her projected odds.

win11One Classy DynastyML 3/1

One Classy Dynasty tops the TrackWiz ratings by a significant margin, posting an 87.08 against a field where the next best check in at 66.01. Trained by Randall R. Read and piloted by Ali Rivera, this filly carries the most complete profile in the race. At 3/1 on the morning line, she's priced right for a horse with this kind of rating edge in a maiden claimer — back her with confidence as the top selection.

place10Mucho FastML 9/2

Mucho Fast draws the second-highest TrackWiz rating at 66.01 and also gets Ali Rivera in the irons — Rivera is double-dipping here, which means post position logistics could matter. Regardless, the 9/2 morning line represents decent place value on a horse who clearly outclasses most of this field on our numbers.

show3Dashin Current 509ML 7/2

Dashin Current 509 rates third in the field at 60.80 and comes in at a fair 7/2 on the morning line for trainer Marc E. Jungers. Jungers sends out well-spotted horses in these short maiden sprints, and Raul Ramirez Jr. is an experienced hand for this spot. At those odds, he's a logical exotic anchor to round out the trifecta.

Race 2

11:31 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 250 yd · Dirt

The 250-yard dash is the shortest sprint on the card, and with maiden claimers going that distance, raw talent separation matters most — our ratings show a clear top three with a fascinating value overlay hiding near the top of the morning line.

win9Sheza Savage YgML 6/1

Sheza Savage Yg tops the TrackWiz ratings at 82.71 in a field where no other horse clears 75, giving her a meaningful edge in what is an extremely short, reaction-based race. Manuel Lara rides for trainer Edgar V. Mendoza, and what really pops here is the morning line — 6/1 for the top-rated horse in a maiden claimer is a pricing gift. This is a legitimate overlay and our strongest play in the race.

place6Iam a Fancy DalhiML 3/1

Iam a Fancy Dalhi rates 73.25 on our scale and is installed as the 3/1 second choice on the morning line, which is reflective of her talent level in this group. Alejandro Medina has been a regular presence in the Lone Star quarter horse ranks, and trainer Gilberto Gonzalez has the horse positioned in an appropriate spot. She should be right there at the wire.

show7Nl Chilitas CartelML 5/1

Nl Chilitas Cartel comes in rated 71.43 — separated from Iam a Fancy Dalhi by just two points — so the difference between second and third in our model is razor thin. At 5/1 on the morning line, she offers genuine show value and is worth including in exacta and trifecta tickets. Trainer Francisco Campos Jr. keeps a tidy barn and Claudio Ponce Aguilar is a capable pilot for this short-course assignment.

Race 3

11:57 PM EDT

Maiden · 330 yd · Dirt

This 330-yard maiden sprint steps up slightly in distance and features one horse whose TrackWiz rating towers over the field — but the morning line favorite sits at 2/1, meaning value hunters need to look elsewhere for overlays.

win8ReddingtenML 7/2

Reddingten comes in with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating — the highest in this field by nearly 28 points over the second-best horse. Francisco Calderon handles the riding duties for trainer Juan L. Vazquez, and at 7/2 on the morning line, this is another overlay situation where our model says the horse is better than the odds suggest. In a maiden race at 330 yards, a gap this large at the top of the ratings is hard to ignore.

place6HunnicutML 2/1

Hunnicut is the morning line favorite at 2/1 and carries a 58.33 rating — respectable, though well behind Reddingten. What keeps him relevant is the post position draw and the fact that Ali Rivera, one of the more active and successful jockeys at this meet, has the mount for trainer John A. Stinebaugh. Rivera-Stinebaugh is a combination worth tracking throughout the card today.

show10Encinas LegacyML 4/1

Encinas Legacy rates 55.00 and is priced at 4/1 morning line for trainer Carlos Cruz Lopez with Gilberto Linares aboard. In a maiden field where a large portion of the horses are clustered below 45 on our ratings, Encinas Legacy's number makes him a safe third option for the trifecta. At 4/1, there's enough return to make the show ticket worthwhile.

Our free coverage kicks off with the first three races on the card — all short-distance Maiden events on the dirt. One Classy Dynasty opens the day at 3/1 in the 300-yard opener, carrying our top TrackWiz rating of 87.08 among the free races. In Race 2, Sheza Savage Yg is the play at a juicy 6/1 morning line in the 250-yard dash — that kind of price on a horse with an 82.71 rating deserves a serious look for value players. Reddingten rounds out the free trio in the 330-yard Maiden at 7/2.

One theme connecting these early races: with the track surface baking under near-100-degree heat, first-jump quickness is everything at these short distances. Horses that have shown a clean break in their past performances are getting extra weight in our model today. Check the individual race cards for the full breakdowns on all three free picks.

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Race 4

12:23 AM EDT

Optional Claiming · 350 yd · Dirt

The optional claiming ranks step up the competition considerably at 350 yards — this field features horses with real career records and meaningful win percentages, making class and consistency key factors in separating contenders.

win9Mako Shark WattersML 4/1

Mako Shark Watters is our top pick at 4/1 morning line, and the numbers back it up — an 85.62 TrackWiz rating leads the field and a 23% career win rate shows he converts at a solid clip. Oliver E. Martinez rides for trainer Arnold Lewis in what looks like a well-spotted effort. At 4/1 with the top rating, this is the kind of play where our analysis and the morning line are well-aligned.

place5Jlc Show TimeML 6/1

Jlc Show Time comes in rated 80.44 and carries a 26% career win percentage — that conversion rate ranks near the top of this field and shows a horse that gets the job done when conditions are right. Victor Manuel Urieta Jr. gets the mount for trainer Jesus Huitron Lira, and at 6/1 on the morning line, there's definite place value here if Mako Shark Watters is bet down at the windows.

show7LiberaterML 3/1

Liberater sits at 3/1 on the morning line with a 75.05 rating and a 14% career win rate — the win percentage is modest, but this is a horse the morning line maker respects. Arturo Alvarez is a reliable rider, and trainer Joseph D. Manucy has the horse poised to compete. Round out your trifecta tickets with Liberater as the show anchor.

Race 5

12:49 AM EDT

Trial · 440 yd · Dirt

A 440-yard Trial race where the odds board is headlined by a heavy favorite, but our TrackWiz model flips the script — the top-rated horse is a double-digit morning line price, creating one of the more interesting value spots on the card.

win2Ding Dang DulceML 5/1

Ding Dang Dulce is our standout selection, posting an 84.17 TrackWiz rating — the highest in this nine-horse field by nearly 18 points. What really jumps off the page is the career win percentage: 50%. That's a dominant conversion rate that speaks to a horse who knows how to win at this level. Trainer Haley N. Hobbs sends her out at 5/1 on the morning line, and Fernando Fonseca-Soto takes the ride — this looks like a significant overlay given her profile.

place9Aj Big CashML 6/5

Aj Big Cash is the morning line favorite at 6/5 with a 33% career win rate, so the public clearly respects this horse — and reasonably so. The rating of 66.50 is solid, though it trails our top pick by nearly 18 points. Rodrigo Sigala Vallejo pilots for trainer Leonel Hernandez, and in a Trial where qualifying positions matter, a horse this well-regarded by the morning line will draw heavy action.

show4Toby TwoML 9/2

Toby Two checks in rated 64.67 with a 14% career win rate and is tabbed at 9/2 morning line for trainer Jimmy W. Guerra and jockey Victor Manuel Urieta Jr. The rating gap between him and our top two picks is notable, but in Trial races where the field is chasing qualifying spots, a horse with Urieta Jr. in the irons can find his way to the board. Good show horse for multi-race exotics.

Race 6

1:15 AM EDT

Trial · 440 yd · Dirt

The second 440-yard Trial of the afternoon is a clash of two dominant horses at the top — when two horses combine for ratings over 85 and career win percentages over 40%, the rest of the field becomes a distant supporting cast.

win5Capos Train StationML 7/5

Capos Train Station is the horse to beat, and it isn't particularly close — a 89.42 TrackWiz rating tops the field, and a 66% career win rate is frankly remarkable for a quarter horse at this level. Francisco Calderon pilots for trainer James J. Gonzales II, and the 7/5 morning line simply reflects the reality that this horse is head and shoulders above the competition. In a Trial, he's the clear qualifying favorite.

place7Karma Cha ChingML 9/5

Karma Cha Ching is the only other horse in this race who belongs in the same conversation — rated 85.91 with a 41% career win rate, this is an accomplished horse in her own right. Nestor Duran gets the mount for trainer Esteban Rubio, and at 9/5 morning line, she's the natural play if Capos Train Station gets bet through the floor. Don't expect much overlay here, but she's a must-use in exactas.

show2Rf Runaway CowboyML 7/2

Rf Runaway Cowboy rates third in the field at 59.05 with an 18% career win rate — a significant drop from the top two, but the 7/2 morning line gives him legitimate show value in a nine-horse field. Raul Ramirez Jr. handles the riding for Marc E. Jungers, who sends multiple horses out across today's card. Use him to round out the trifecta behind the two heavy hitters.

Race 7

1:41 AM EDT

Trial · 440 yd · Dirt

A competitive third 440-yard Trial where the top of the ratings board is bunched tightly, and the morning line presents a genuinely tricky puzzle — the top-rated horse isn't the favorite, creating a legitimate value situation.

win3Jess DriveML 7/2

Jess Drive tops the TrackWiz ratings at 86.35 with a 30% career win rate, and the 7/2 morning line feels like fair-to-generous pricing for the best horse on paper. Claudio Ponce Aguilar rides for trainer Victor G. Fierro, a sharp combination that has been active in these Trial conditions. The rating advantage over the morning line favorite is meaningful enough that this looks like a solid overlay play.

place7Chloes ManML 2/1

Chloes Man is the morning line favorite at 2/1 with a 79.70 rating and a 22% career win rate — this is a horse the public trusts, and Victor Manuel Urieta Jr. aboard only adds to that appeal. The slight rating deficit to our win pick doesn't disqualify him; it just means he's a strong place horse rather than our top selection. Expect heavy money here.

show9InflationML 5/2

Inflation rates 79.68 — essentially a dead heat with Chloes Man on our model — and carries a 27% career win rate at 5/2 on the morning line. Raul Padilla Hernandez Jr. rides for trainer Marc E. Jungers, who is sending out horses throughout today's card and clearly has a strong stable going. The near-identical rating to the morning line favorite makes Inflation a smart trifecta inclusion.

Race 8

2:07 AM EDT

Trial · 440 yd · Dirt

Royalist arrives with a 3/5 morning line that tells you everything you need to know — this is a case where one horse has so thoroughly separated himself from the field that finding value is about the supporting cast, not the top pick.

win1RoyalistML 3/5

Royalist sits at the pinnacle of today's entire card with a 90.00 TrackWiz rating — the highest mark of the day — and backs it up with a 41% career win rate that is exceptional. Luis L. Vivanco handles the riding for trainer Ben Olaveson, and the 3/5 price reflects the reality that this horse simply outclasses this Trial field. While the return is modest, Royalist is the foundation for every multi-race sequence and exotic ticket in this race.

place4Favorito CartierML 5/1

Favorito Cartier is rated 62.40 with a 16% career win rate, making him the clearest second option in a field where most horses can't get close to Royalist's number. Ruben Castro rides for trainer Samuel Mendoza, and at 5/1 on the morning line, the place price on Favorito Cartier could be workable if Royalist is bet deep into minus odds. Use him on top of Royalist in the exacta.

show9Coweta CoronaML 6/1

Coweta Corona checks in at 51.98 rated and 14% career win rate — modest numbers, but in a Trial where Royalist hoovers up most of the public money, the supporting cast can offer value. Arturo Alvarez takes the mount for trainer Manuel Gonzalez IV, and at 6/1 morning line, Coweta Corona is worth a spot on trifecta tickets as the show selection behind the heavy favorite.

Race 9

2:33 AM EDT

Allowance · 300 yd · Dirt

The card closes with a deep, wide-open 12-horse allowance sprint at 300 yards — four horses are clustered between ratings of 67 and 85, with the top pick offering genuine overlay value at nearly double-digit odds.

win4Jjs EagleML 9/2

Jjs Eagle is our closer with the highest rating in the field at 84.90 and a 14% career win rate in allowance company — a solid conversion number for this level. H. Javier Hernandez rides for trainer Leonardo Rivera-Antopia, and the 9/2 morning line represents real value for the top-rated horse in a full field of twelve. In a 300-yard race that rewards reactiveness and early speed, having the best number on paper carries extra weight.

place8Vashti BML 7/2

Vashti B comes in rated 72.21 with a 16% career win rate and gets Claudio Ponce Aguilar aboard for trainer Ricardo Aguirre. She's priced at 7/2 on the morning line — the second choice — which means the public is already on her. The rating is strong enough to earn a legitimate place run, and Ponce Aguilar is comfortable in this short-sprint format at Lone Star.

show7Death ValleyML 4/1

Death Valley rates 72.08 — essentially tied with Vashti B on our model — with a 16% career win rate and is tabbed at 4/1 morning line for trainer Kash Reed and jockey Juan Pulido. When two horses are this close in the ratings and both carry the same career win percentage, the one with the better morning line price becomes the value play in exotics. Death Valley at 4/1 is worth a show ticket and trifecta coverage.

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Bottom line: Lone Star is serving up a serious card today, highlighted by four back-to-back Trials and a few legitimate value prices scattered across the maiden openers. One Classy Dynasty, Sheza Savage Yg, and Reddingten are your free best bets to start the day — and Royalist in Race 8 is the horse everyone will be talking about by the fifth race. For pace breakdowns, exotic ticket structures, and the full nine-race analysis, subscribers can access everything in the premium card. Good luck out there — stay hydrated, and let's cash some tickets.

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