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Lone Star Picks & Predictions — September 17, 2026

September 17, 20268 racesAll Lone Star picks

Lone Star Park is firing up the quarter-horse engines this Thursday afternoon with an 8-race all-dirt card — and when we say firing up, we mean it literally. It's 96°F under partly cloudy skies in Grand Prairie, and that Texas heat is going to be a real factor for both horses and bettors grinding through the afternoon.

Every race on the card is a short-distance sprint, ranging from a lightning-quick 220 yards all the way out to 440 yards — classic quarter-horse territory where races are decided in the blink of an eye. That means gate speed, reaction time, and early burst are everything today. There's no room to make up ground on this kind of card.

We've got full TrackWiz analysis across all 8 races, with the first three available free to everyone. Races 4 through 8 are locked for subscribers, and trust us — there's some serious value hiding in the back half of this card.

Best Bets

Race 1

8:05 PM EDT

Allowance · 300 yd · Dirt

A clear class standout sits atop this 300-yard allowance opener, but two live contenders lurk at juicy morning-line prices to complicate the exotics.

win3Chill ChillML 9/5

Chill Chill is the dominant figure in this field by every metric TrackWiz has on her. Her rating of 88.83 towers over the second-best horse in the race by nearly 17 points, and a 20% career win rate confirms she converts when the conditions are right. Trainer Harvey Baeza sends her out as the 9/5 morning-line favorite, and that confidence is well-placed — this filly looks like the one to beat at 300 yards.

place7Chile PiquinML 5/2

Chile Piquin draws the 7 hole and comes in as the second-highest-rated horse in the field at 71.88, which is legitimate form in an allowance sprint. The 5/2 morning line suggests the market respects him, but there's potential overlay value if the crowd gets too heavy on Chill Chill. Trainer Zackery Rios and jockey Roman Armando Huerta make for a pairing worth tracking at Lone Star.

show4Painted FuryML 6/1

Painted Fury at 6/1 is the third-best rating in the field at 59.43 and gives Jose Marcial Garcia a second runner to root for after drawing the 4 post. At that morning-line price, she's an attractive piece of exacta and trifecta tickets — particularly if the top two hold serve and the show slot opens up. Her 14% career win rate is respectable and suggests she'll be competitive without necessarily stealing the show.

Race 2

8:31 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 440 yd · Dirt

All maidens, all looking for that elusive first career win at 440 yards — the top of this field is closer than the morning line implies, making the exacta a potential goldmine.

win2Mighty Bug ReasonML 5/2

Mighty Bug Reason heads our analysis with the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 80.95, and trainer Carlos B. Sanchez sends her out at a workable 5/2 morning line. She separates herself at the top of the field even in a race where nobody has broken their maiden yet, which tells us her underlying form metrics stand out. Jockey Luis Angel Maldonado gets the call, and this looks like a horse set up to finally get the job done at 440 yards.

place1Rcv Blue FireML 8/1

Rcv Blue Fire is razor-thin behind the top pick at a 79.79 rating, yet the morning line has her at 8/1 — that's a significant disconnect worth exploiting in the exotics. Trainer Adan Guzman puts Noe Villatoro up, a rider who's active on this card, and the 440-yard distance should suit. If Mighty Bug Reason falters even slightly, Rcv Blue Fire figures to be right there.

show4One Separate SeisML 8/5

One Separate Seis is the morning-line favorite at 8/5, which gives her the crowd's respect even if our ratings slot her third. Trainer Enrique Alvarado and jockey Eleazar Rivera Hernandez are comfortable connections, and a 70.36 rating in a maiden field is a solid number. She's a strong show anchor for trifecta tickets, even if the TrackWiz model has her a notch below the top two.

Race 3

8:57 PM EDT

Claiming · 350 yd · Dirt

This 350-yard claimer is deceptively deep — two horses rated in the mid-70s are priced at 8/1 and 6/1, and a 25% career winner is not the market favorite, making this a trifecta puzzle worth solving.

win8Ms Easter DebML 8/1

Ms Easter Deb is our top selection at 8/1 morning line despite carrying the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 76.63 — that's a value gap we can't ignore in a claiming sprint. Trainer Antonio S. Martinez puts Alejandro Landeros Zuniga in the irons, and this filly's rating edge over even the morning-line favorite Besame Bye (65.83) is meaningful at 350 yards where the margin for error is razor-thin. At 8/1, she's our best value play on the entire card.

place5Corona Money PopML 6/1

Corona Money Pop slots in at 74.02 on our scale and comes in at 6/1 on the morning line, a price that looks fair to slightly generous given her form. Trainer Jose U. Lopez and jockey Noe Castaneda are a combination that shows up in these short-distance claimers regularly. She sits just behind our top pick in the ratings and should be a strong exacta partner with Ms Easter Deb.

show4Besame ByeML 7/2

Besame Bye is the morning-line second choice at 7/2 and carries a career win rate of 25% — easily the best strike rate in this field. Trainer M. Brent Kennedy has her in a position to fire, and a 65.83 TrackWiz rating gives her legitimate show equity. She's a good trifecta anchor even if the TrackWiz model slots her behind two horses at bigger prices.

Our three free races give you a solid foundation to build on today. In Race 1, Chill Chill draws our top rating at 88.83 and opens at 9/5 on the morning line — the highest-rated pick among the free plays and a horse we like on a fast, sealed Lone Star surface in this heat. Race 3 is the one to watch for value hunters: Ms Easter Deb carries an 8/1 morning line with a 76.63 TrackWiz rating, which suggests the market may be sleeping on her over the short 350-yard trip. If she fires her best number, that's a price worth attacking.

One thing connecting the free-race picks: on a hot, dry day like today, track surfaces tend to play lightning-fast by mid-afternoon. Horses with strong gate scores and early speed profiles are going to be tough to beat. Keep that pace bias in mind as you work through the card.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

9:23 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 250 yd · Dirt

A massive 12-horse maiden claiming sprint at just 250 yards — pure chaos potential, but one horse stands out head-and-shoulders above the field on TrackWiz ratings.

win3Holy MondayML 4/1

Holy Monday is the standout at 85.62 — no other horse in this 12-runner field is within 17 points of her on the TrackWiz scale. Trainer Adan Guzman and jockey Noe Villatoro are reunited after what looks like a productive partnership on today's card, and the 4/1 morning line is genuinely fair given her dominance in the ratings. At 250 yards, there's almost no room to make up ground — you want to be on the best horse, and this is it.

place7Toxic SeisML 5/2

Toxic Seis draws the 7 post and owns the second-best rating in the field at 68.54, running off a 5/2 morning line that suggests the market agrees. Trainer Marc E. Jungers and jockey Luis L. Vivanco make for a capable combination in short-distance sprints. She's our place pick because the gap between her and Holy Monday is real, but the gap between her and the rest of the field is equally real.

show8JeezusML 5/1

Jeezus checks in at 5/1 on the morning line with a 67.32 rating — nearly identical to Toxic Seis and strong enough to hold off the lower half of this field. Trainer Arnold Lewis sends him out with Alejandro Medina in the saddle, and in a 12-horse sprint at 250 yards, anything can happen in the gate. He's a solid show piece and worth including on trifecta tickets as a hedge below the top two.

Race 5

9:49 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 220 yd · Dirt

The morning-line favorite and the TrackWiz top pick don't agree in this 220-yard maiden dash — a massive field with two legitimate contenders at the top and a lot of noise below them.

win4A Sun of ThunderML 2/1

A Sun of Thunder carries an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — the highest mark in the field — and yet the morning line has him at 2/1 while a lesser-rated rival is actually the betting chalk. Trainer Aracely Mejia sends him out with Noe Villatoro up, a rider who's been all over this card today for good reason. At 220 yards, this is a pure speed and athleticism contest, and A Sun of Thunder's metrics say he's got both in abundance.

place8Estrella HechiceraML 7/5

Estrella Hechicera is the 7/5 morning-line favorite, and while TrackWiz slots her second at 75.49, she's clearly a live contender with legitimate form figures. Trainer Rodolfo Sanchez has her well-spotted, and Gilberto Linares knows the Lone Star dirt. The rating gap between her and A Sun of Thunder is real but not enormous — she figures to be right in the mix at the wire.

show11Look Before HawkeyeML 4/1

Look Before Hawkeye sits at 4/1 on the morning line with a 60.73 rating — a meaningful step below the top two but the clear third-best figure in a large field. Trainer Alvin Lee Turner and jockey H. Javier Hernandez get a horse who can run in a wide-open maiden sprint where anything outside the top tier can get shuffled. She's a logical show piece and worth using broadly in trifecta tickets.

Race 6

10:15 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 350 yd · Dirt

Twelve maidens break from the gate at 350 yards in what shapes up as a TrackWiz vs. morning line disagreement — our top pick is 5/1 while a lower-rated rival is the 3/1 chalk.

win3ElectrikML 5/1

Electrik tops our TrackWiz ratings at 84.17 and heads out at 5/1 on the morning line — a disconnect that represents genuine value in a maiden sprint. Trainer Adan Guzman hands the reins to Noe Villatoro, who has been one of the busiest and most effective riders on tonight's entire Lone Star card. In a wide-open maiden field at 350 yards, that rating edge combined with a confident jockey booking makes Electrik the clear choice.

place12JeremiahML 6/1

Jeremiah breaks from the 12 post at 6/1 morning line and carries the second-best rating in the field at 75.79 — a number that merits serious respect in this spot. Trainer Jose Luis Sanchez III saddles him with Claudio Ponce Aguilar up, and at 350 yards the outside post is less punishing than it might be at longer distances. He's a strong exacta partner who could easily outrun his odds.

show6Tarzan BquikML 3/1

Tarzan Bquik is the morning-line favorite at 3/1 but slots third on our ratings at 74.73 — very close to Jeremiah but behind Electrik by a meaningful margin. Trainer Katie Carlos and jockey Arturo Alvarez are a pairing that shows market confidence. He's absolutely worth including in trifectas, and if the crowd bets him down further, he could end up an interesting show-overlay situation.

Race 7

10:41 PM EDT

Allowance · 300 yd · Dirt

A loaded 12-horse allowance at 300 yards with three horses bunched between 81 and 88 on TrackWiz ratings — this is a race that could go several ways, and the morning line doesn't make it easy.

win7Lil Bolt of FireML 5/2

Lil Bolt of Fire heads our card at 87.81 — the top rating in a deep allowance field — and Noe Villatoro gets another high-profile mount to go with his busy evening. Trainer Adan Guzman has had multiple strong entries tonight, and at 5/2 morning line Lil Bolt of Fire offers solid value given the rating edge. A 20% career win rate in allowance company is respectable, and the tight 300-yard sprint plays to her strengths.

place4Lethal On MondayML 2/1

Lethal On Monday is the 2/1 morning-line favorite and comes with the best career win rate in the field at 33% — that's a genuine closer profile in allowance company. Trainer Jesus Soto, Jr. and jockey Manuel Benavides are a confident pairing, and at 82.25 on TrackWiz the gap between Lethal On Monday and our top pick is almost negligible. If the favorite fires as expected, she'll be right at the wire.

show2Noah MoonML 6/1

Noah Moon rounds out our top three at 82.18 TrackWiz — essentially a three-way dead heat at the top of this field with all three within five points of each other. Trainer Martin Rodriguez sends her out at 6/1 morning line with Francisco Giles aboard, making her one of the better-priced horses in an otherwise chalky top tier. She's a natural show anchor and a legitimate exacta threat given the compressed ratings.

Race 8

11:07 PM EDT

Maiden · 330 yd · Dirt

A 12-horse maiden field at 330 yards with a clear ratings cluster at the top — three horses separate themselves from the pack, and the night closes with a trifecta puzzle worth solving.

win10GoldminingML 5/2

Goldmining posts a 79.24 TrackWiz rating — the best in the field — and draws a favorable 5/2 morning line that reflects legitimate market respect. Trainer Jose Luis Sanchez III hands the reins to Claudio Ponce Aguilar, who has had a steady book of business at Lone Star tonight. In a 12-horse maiden sprint at 330 yards, having the top rating and a sharp jockey is exactly the profile you want to bet.

place11Bonita Sin TachaML 3/1

Bonita Sin Tacha is second on our scale at 75.30 and comes in at 3/1 on the morning line — a tight gap behind Goldmining that suggests a neck-and-neck battle to the wire is entirely possible. Trainer Zackary Stinebaugh puts Ali Rivera up, and this filly's rating puts her well clear of the third group. She's a natural exacta partner with the top pick and worth using aggressively on trifecta tickets.

show8TroffeeML 7/2

Troffee rounds out our top three at 70.82 and checks in at 7/2 morning line — a fair reflection of where TrackWiz slots her in this field. Trainer Ben Olaveson and jockey Luis L. Vivanco are active connections throughout tonight's card, and 330 yards gives her just enough room to find her stride. She's the logical show anchor to cap off a full-card trifecta approach at Lone Star.

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Bottom line: Lone Star is serving up a tight, fast, heat-soaked sprint card today with plenty of angles to exploit. Chill Chill is your free-card anchor, Ms Easter Deb is the longshot flier to sprinkle in, and the premium back half of the card has multi-race wager opportunities our analysis team is genuinely excited about. Grab the free picks, and if you want the full-card edge, the complete breakdown is waiting for you at TrackWiz Premium. Good luck out there — and stay hydrated.

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