Lone Star Picks & Predictions — September 12, 2026

Dm Sophie Cartel checks in with a 67.66 rating and draws the 10 post, which in a 12-horse short-distance sprint can actually be a blessing by keeping a horse away from early traffic trouble. Trainer Kie Mushinski sends Luis L. Vivanco aboard, and the 8/1 morning line makes this an excellent place-bet value. The rating gap between Sophie Cartel and the clustered mid-tier is real enough to trust this one for the exacta.

Omac Donald rates third in our model among the horses we're using, sitting at 57.84 with jockey Jose R. Herbert up for trainer Brian Stroud. The 4/1 morning line is fair, and Stroud appears twice on this card, suggesting an active stable worth monitoring. In a chaotic 12-horse field, getting Omac Donald at a fair price for show and trifecta coverage makes sense.

Sixes Fly Higher holds the morning-line favoritism at 7/5 and rates 59.33 in our model, making this one a public choice that our numbers still support for the place. Trainer Brian Stroud, who also has a runner in Race 3, deploys Victor Manuel Urieta Jr. here — one of the busier riders on the card. Even if Have a Lil Fayth runs away with it, Sixes Fly Higher at short odds should be a reliable place-ticket anchor.

Rr Dash Master Jet comes in at an 8/5 morning line with a 59.00 TrackWiz rating, making this a tight three-way race at the top of the ticket. Trainer Neri Reyna teams with Jose R. Herbert, and the public clearly expects this one to fire as one of the co-favorites. Splitting the two morning-line favorites across win and show slots while using Have a Lil Fayth on top gives your trifecta ticket some structure.

Flaxen rates 77.35 and draws post 9 at a 7/2 morning line, making this the second-strongest horse in the field by our numbers for trainer J. Ryan Basham with Rigoberto Camarillo Ortega up. The separation between Flaxen and the third-rated horse in this field is noticeable, which is why we feel comfortable playing the top two as an exacta key. At 7/2, Flaxen offers solid value as a place selection for bettors who want to use multiple horses on top.

Cold Hearted Cowgirl rates 76.37 for trainer Brian Stroud — who continues to be one of the busiest barns on this card — with Victor Manuel Urieta Jr. in the irons at 5/1. That morning line and rating combo makes her the best value in the bottom of your tickets, as the public may overlook her with two horses rating above her on the chalk side. Trifecta players should absolutely include her in their show spots.

Eagle On the Loose rates 55.38 for the Felesha Gold barn with Ali Rivera riding, good for second on our board in a race where the next group of horses is closely packed between the low 40s and low 50s. The 6/1 morning line makes this an excellent value for the place and exacta, particularly given the significant drop-off from Fiscal Warning to the rest. Use Eagle On the Loose as your primary exacta partner underneath the heavy favorite.

Dashin Pvc Eagle draws the outside 12 post and rates 49.46 — third on our board — for trainer Antonio S. Martinez and jockey Alejandro Landeros Zuniga. The 8/1 morning line is generous enough to warrant trifecta coverage, and Martinez shows up multiple times on this card suggesting an active and prepared stable. In a maiden field with this much uncertainty below the top pick, fading the public and using an 8/1 shot in third is exactly the kind of play that pays.

Nine One Won is the clear logical key underneath, rating 76.91 with a 19% career win rate from the 4 post for trainer Raul Ramirez and jockey Oliver E. Martinez. The 8/1 morning line is genuinely generous for a horse this far clear of the rest of the field in the secondary tier — the gap between Nine One Won and the third-rated horse is nearly 10 points. Exacta players should look hard at the 5/4 combination and expect a solid return.

Jess Louisiana Girl is the show play at 12/1 morning line, carrying a 56.67 rating and a 17% career win rate from the rail post for trainer Victor G. Fierro. The rating suggests she's capable of holding her own against the mid-tier of this field, and at 12/1, trifecta coverage is worth the small investment. If the race sets up with any early speed duel — even in a 350-yard dash — Jess Louisiana Girl could pick up pieces late.

Reverzcowgirl rates 71.92 — second in the field — for trainer John A. Stinebaugh and jockey Gilberto Linares at an 8/5 morning line. A 25% career win rate shows this horse knows how to get to the wire, and the public has clearly identified her as well given the short odds. The two-horse battle at the top of this race is tight enough that playing Reverzcowgirl on top in a reverse exacta with Lethal Monday gives you solid coverage.

Stilettoes is the longshot angle in the show spot, rating 52.38 at 15/1 for trainer Ben Olaveson — the same barn that sends out the stakes favorite Bludz Valiant Policy in Race 7. A 33% career win rate is genuinely eye-catching, suggesting this horse has won before and knows what to do in the gate. At 15/1, the trifecta value of including Stilettoes underneath the two top horses is enormous if she can replicate any of that prior winning form.

Eagle Star rates 60.61 and goes as the 3/1 morning-line second choice for trainer Antonio S. Martinez and jockey Alejandro Landeros Zuniga — the same combination that shows up multiple times on today's card. A 16% career win rate is consistent, and at 3/1, this is the horse the public has correctly identified as the main competition. Use Eagle Star as your primary exacta partner with Volcom Tac for what could be a generous exacta payoff.

Jlc Rags to Riches draws post 2 and rates 54.17 with jockey Alejandro Medina up for trainer Jose Medrano at a 9/2 morning line. The 50% career win rate is the headline stat here — two wins in every four starts is an outstanding mark, even if the sample size may be small. In a chaotic 12-horse sprint where anything can happen at the gate, a horse with that kind of winning instinct deserves a spot in your trifecta.

Bf D Rageous rates 76.60 and draws the rail post for trainer Eric Aguilar with Jacobo Adan Aguilar in the irons at a 3/1 morning line. A 23% career win rate in allowance company shows consistent competitiveness, and the post 1 draw in a 250-yard sprint is not necessarily a disadvantage when your horse has gate experience. This one is the clearest exacta partner with Fabulous Casina and deserves respect in all your multi-horse wagers.

Goodtime in Texas rates 62.99 and posts at 12/1 for trainer Arnold G. Herrera — who also handles Last Corona to Open in Race 4 — with Victor Manuel Urieta Jr. riding. A 26% career win rate is better than the morning-line price suggests, and Urieta Jr. has been one of the most-utilized jockeys on the entire card today, suggesting connections trust him in competitive spots. At 12/1, plugging Goodtime in Texas into your trifectas could result in a monster payoff if the race sets up correctly.

Streakin N Kisses rates 75.15 with a 16% career win rate from post 6 for trainer Carlos I. Mendoza, who also saddles Lethal Monday in Race 8. Jockey Angel A. Fierro gets the call here — appearing twice on today's card for competitive connections — and the 9/2 morning line is a fair price for a horse this close to the top of our board. In a 12-horse field at 350 yards where the pace can string out, Streakin N Kisses has the profile to be running strong at the wire.

Jess Hot Z is an interesting show play at 5/2 — a shorter morning-line price than our place pick despite rating 70.18, which sits third on our board. Trainer John A. Stinebaugh puts Ali Rivera up, and the market clearly respects this horse given the relatively tight odds in a deep field. For trifecta players, using the three highest-rated horses in order gives you a clean, logical ticket that covers the most likely outcome.

Midnight Mustang rates 82.39 from the 10 post for trainer Carlos Cruz Lopez and jockey Gilberto Linares — who has been one of the most-used riders on this card — at a 3/1 morning line that the public has clearly latched onto. The rating gap between Midnight Mustang and the third-rated horse is more than nine points, which in maiden company is a meaningful separation. Use this one as your primary exacta partner underneath I Am Nme for what should be a clean payoff.

Midnight D — note the name similarity but different trainer entirely — rates 78.01 for trainer Bradley C. Bolen with Francisco Giles up at a 7/2 morning line. Bolen is one of the more active and well-represented trainers on today's card, and a 78-point rating in maiden company is nothing to dismiss. This sets up the trifecta as a three-way exacta at the top — I Am Nme, Midnight Mustang, and Midnight D — and getting Bolen's horse at 7/2 to show seems like fair value in what could be a very chalky finish.