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Lone Star Picks & Predictions — September 11, 2026

September 11, 20269 racesAll Lone Star picks

This card ran on September 11, 2026.

Best bets at Lone Star, September 11, 2026

Race 16Jody JonesML 12/17:05 PM EDT

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Last 30 days at Lone Star: our top pick won 19 of 63 races (30%) and finished in the money in 37.

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It's a hot one at Lone Star Park — 93 degrees under partly cloudy skies as the horses hit the track for a 9-race Friday card. The surface is all dirt today, and with that kind of heat baking the ground, expect a fast, consistent strip that should reward early speed across the board.

The card is loaded with short-burst quarter horse sprints ranging from 220 yards all the way out to 550 yards, so pace identification is everything. There's a little something for everyone today — a Stakes race in Race 3 headlining the action, a handful of wide-open maiden events, and some optional claiming spots that could throw up a price or two.

Nine races, nine opportunities. Let's break it down.

Best Bets

Race 1

7:05 PM EDT

Claiming · 550 yd · Dirt

A wide-open 550-yard claiming dash where the morning line favorite isn't our top-rated horse — two double-digit longshots sit atop the TrackWiz ratings and could scramble the tote board.

win6Jody JonesML 12/1

Jody Jones lands at the top of our ratings (73.96) despite being chalked at 12/1 on the morning line — that's the kind of overlay that gets handicappers excited. Trainer Brian Stroud sends her out with jockey Victor Manuel Urieta, Jr. in the irons, a pairing worth watching. At 550 yards, the extra ground compared to typical sprint distances should suit a horse who can sustain a run, and the rating gap over most of this field is significant. If she fires her best effort, she's the most dangerous horse in here.

place8San FranciscoML 3/1

San Francisco (No. 8) carries a 72.98 TrackWiz rating and draws the attention of trainer Raul Rodriguez, Jr., who puts Rigoberto Camarillo Ortega aboard. Posted at 3/1 on the morning line, the public is at least partially aware of this one, but the rating suggests she belongs right at the top of the order. She profiles as a stalwart exotics anchor even if she doesn't get up to win.

show4Kvn Valiant CoronaML 2/1

Kvn Valiant Corona opens as the 2/1 morning line choice for a reason — the public likes what they see, and a 15% career win rate gives this horse legitimate credibility in a field where most starters are closer to single digits. Trainer Arnold Lewis sends out J.R. Ramirez, Jr., a rider who handles short sprints well at this circuit. At the short price, the value isn't explosive, but for show purposes in a wide-open race, this horse rounds out a solid exotics ticket.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

7:31 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 220 yd · Dirt

A full field of maiden claimers going the minimum 220 yards, with a standout TrackWiz rating at the top suggesting one horse may have a decisive edge over a wide-open group of first-timers and non-winners.

win2Handdelivered FamousML 7/2

Handdelivered Famous (No. 2) is the clear top-rated horse in this race with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating — a number that stands nearly 20 points clear of the second-best horse in the field. Trainer Hector R. Osorio puts Rosendo E. Pina Garcia in the saddle, and the 7/2 morning line reflects solid public confidence without making this a total chalk situation. In a wide-open maiden claimer at 220 yards, raw ability tends to show itself quickly, and this horse's profile screams class edge over the competition.

place12Look Before HawkeyeML 2/1

Look Before Hawkeye (No. 12) rates second in the field at 63.67 and opens at 2/1 as the morning line second choice, suggesting the public is tracking this one closely. Trainer Alvin Lee Turner pairs with H. Javier Hernandez, a jockey who gets his share of winners at this meet. The gap between her rating and the rest of the field outside the win pick is meaningful, making her a reliable place contender in exotics.

show5Fmm Tellerima CoronaML 8/1

Fmm Tellerima Corona (No. 5) slots in third on our ratings at 59.18 and offers some mild value at 8/1 on the morning line. Trainer Enrique Alvarado sends this one out with Olvin Josue Martinez up — a rider with plenty of experience going this short. For tri and superfecta plays, this horse fills the third slot nicely while offering a touch of overlay on the morning line.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 12 runners

TrackWiz is giving everyone a free look at the first three races to kick off the card. The opener is a 550-yard claiming sprint, and our top pick Jody Jones stands out as a massive overlay at 12/1 on the morning line — that kind of price in a sprint field is exactly the spot to pay attention to. Race 2 shifts to the short 220-yard dash with Handdelivered Famous (7/2) posting an 86-point TrackWiz rating and drawing strong signals in the maiden claiming ranks.

The headliner of the free trio is Race 3 — a Stakes at 300 yards where Trillion comes in at 5/2 with an 87.11 rating, the highest of the first three races on the card. Stakes horses at Lone Star in this distance tend to separate cleanly off the break, and on a firm, sun-baked track today, the first jump out of the gate could be decisive. These three races set the tone for the afternoon and all carry solid angles worth digging into.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

7:57 PM EDT

Stakes · 300 yd · Dirt

Stakes company at 300 yards with a clear top pick in the ratings, but an intriguing underdog sitting at 8/1 that outrates the odds-on morning line favorite — the value story here is too good to ignore.

win8TrillionML 5/2

Trillion (No. 8) carries the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 87.11 and is correctly positioned as the 5/2 morning line second choice — though our ratings suggest he should be closer to even money. Trainer Gilberto Gonzalez sends out Alejandro Medina, and in stakes company at 300 yards, raw ability tends to be the deciding factor. The rating gap between Trillion and the third-best horse in the field is substantial, and in a short sprint, that kind of edge usually translates to finishing position.

place3A Political RiskML 8/1

A Political Risk (No. 3) is the most interesting horse on the card at 8/1 — a TrackWiz rating of 79.79 that actually tops the morning line favorite Catalina Scratch (59.67) by a wide margin. Trainer Oscar Nunez, who also conditions the favorite, may be getting a stronger runner at a much better price. Jockey Gilberto Linares gets the call, and if you're building exotics, this horse is essential.

show4Catalina ScratchML 6/5

Catalina Scratch (No. 4) is the public's choice at 6/5 and trained by Oscar Nunez — the same barn that sends out our place pick, A Political Risk. That dual-entry angle cuts both ways, but Catalina Scratch's 59.67 rating is well below both horses above her in our order. She'll need the competition to underperform to outrun her odds, but as a show hedge in a stakes race, her trainer edge keeps her relevant.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 4

8:23 PM EDT

Maiden · 300 yd · Dirt

A 12-horse maiden field sprinting 300 yards with a clear top-rated contender who doesn't hold the lowest morning line — expect the public to be slightly behind the TrackWiz curve on the win pick.

win8Jmg Oak DulceML 9/2

Jmg Oak Dulce (No. 8) tops the TrackWiz ratings at 84.90 in a deep maiden field and opens at 9/2 — a morning line that underestimates what our analysis sees in this horse. Trainer Raul Rodriguez, Jr. puts Victor Manuel Urieta, Jr. aboard, and the connections have shown up with well-prepared horses at this meet. At 300 yards in maiden company, a rating of nearly 85 should be more than enough to overcome the field if the horse breaks cleanly.

place10Genuine HawkeyeML 6/1

Genuine Hawkeye (No. 10) rates second in the field at 69.29 and comes from the barn of Joe Chapa, who has runners dialed in at this meet. Ruben Delarosa, Jr. gets the mount, and at 6/1 on the morning line, this horse is being underestimated by the public. That rating-to-odds discrepancy makes Genuine Hawkeye a must-use in exactas and trifectas.

show6MomentymML 3/1

Momentym (No. 6) slots in at 68.53 on our ratings — barely behind Genuine Hawkeye — and opens at 3/1, making this the third choice for a reason. Trainer Richard D. Sedillo hands the reins to Alejandro Medina, a rider who regularly competes for slots in short-field sprints. The tight rating cluster between the second and third picks makes both essential in any vertical exotic.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 12 runners

Race 5

8:49 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 250 yd · Dirt

A loaded 12-horse Starter Optional Claiming field at 250 yards where the top three picks are separated by just over six points in the ratings — pace will matter, and career win percentages reveal some interesting stories.

win5Wild SenoritaML 3/1

Wild Senorita (No. 5) leads the TrackWiz ratings at 87.08 and carries a 25% career win rate, which is genuinely strong for a starter-level horse. Trainer Angel Sanchez sends her out with Olvin Josue Martinez, a jockey who thrives in short sprints at this circuit. At 3/1 on the morning line, the public is in step with our analysis here — she's the most accomplished and highest-rated horse in a deep field, and she deserves to be the centerpiece of every ticket.

place6This Eagles QuirkyML 9/2

This Eagles Quirky (No. 6) sits just below Wild Senorita with an 82.96 rating and opens at 9/2 — offering a touch of morning line value for the second choice on our ticket. A 15% career win rate is respectable, and trainer Isidro Mancillas-Lopez pairs with Alejandro Landeros Zuniga, who handles the short Lone Star sprints with confidence. In a race this competitive, this horse fits the place slot perfectly and anchors the bottom of exacta boxes.

show10Glory Chick CartelML 4/1

Glory Chick Cartel (No. 10) owns the most impressive career win rate in this entire field at 33% — a number that stands out in a competitive optional claiming spot. Trainer Victor G. Fierro sends out Claudio Ponce Aguilar, and the 80.30 TrackWiz rating confirms this horse is no pretender. The 4/1 morning line reflects legitimate public respect, and the win percentage alone makes this horse a dangerous presence in any race.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 12 runners

Race 6

9:15 PM EDT

Maiden · 350 yd · Dirt

A 12-horse maiden sprint at 350 yards where one horse dominates the TrackWiz ratings by a wide margin — but the second and third picks offer enough quality to make exotics interesting.

win2Jess So FlyML 5/2

Jess So Fly (No. 2) is the standout in this maiden field with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating — the highest mark in the race by more than nine points. Trainer Adan Guzman puts Noe Villatoro in the irons, and the 5/2 morning line suggests the public is picking up on this horse's credentials. At 350 yards, a horse with this kind of rating advantage should be able to clear early and hold, and she's the anchor of every ticket we're building.

place7Kissin KachinaML 7/2

Kissin Kachina (No. 7) rates second in the field at 78.51 and opens at 7/2 — solid morning line odds for a horse who profiles as a legitimate win threat in her own right. Trainer Shae L. Cox pairs with J.R. Ramirez, Jr., a rider who consistently competes in the money at Lone Star. The gap between Kissin Kachina and the third-rated horse is meaningful, making her the clear second choice to anchor place exotics.

show3Shes Team WildML 6/1

Shes Team Wild (No. 3) checks in at 56.29 on the TrackWiz scale, well clear of the rest of the field below her but behind our top two picks. Trainer Aracely Mejia sends out Alejandro Medina, and the 6/1 morning line offers genuine overlay compared to her position in the ratings hierarchy. For trifecta and superfecta plays, this horse fills the third slot while giving you a price horse with a real rating to back it up.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 12 runners

Race 7

9:41 PM EDT

Allowance · 330 yd · Dirt

A 12-horse allowance at 330 yards loaded with horses carrying real career win percentages — this is a competitive field where the ratings leader is a mild overlay and the place and show picks are legitimate threats.

win4BetrueagleML 7/2

Betrueagle (No. 4) tops the TrackWiz ratings in this allowance with an 86.35 score, and the 7/2 morning line represents fair value for the top pick. Trainer Brittany N. Tellez sends out Froylan Tellez Ramirez, and the connections are tight-knit — always a positive sign when confidence is high from the barn. The 16% career win rate is honest, and in a 12-horse allowance field, a horse with this rating profile has the class edge to get it done.

place5D Texas Cowboy 123ML 8/1

D Texas Cowboy 123 (No. 5) is arguably the best value play on the ticket at 8/1 — a 74.67 TrackWiz rating that slots this horse firmly in contention at a morning line that suggests the public is looking elsewhere. A 33% career win rate is the best mark among our top three picks in this race, a figure that demands respect in allowance company. Trainer Leonardo Rivera-Antopia pairs with H. Javier Hernandez, and that combination has the tools to make a serious run at the board.

show7Chick N HawkML 5/1

Chick N Hawk (No. 7) carries a 71.64 rating and a 20% career win rate, slotting in comfortably as our third choice in a race where the top six horses are all rated above 60. Trainer Jose Luis Sanchez III gives Luis L. Vivanco the mount, and at 5/1, this is a horse whose odds closely match the ratings expectation. In a deep allowance field, Chick N Hawk rounds out the trifecta ticket as a reliable third-place finisher.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 12 runners

Race 8

10:07 PM EDT

Optional Claiming · 400 yd · Dirt

An optional claiming field at 400 yards — the longest distance on the card — where the TrackWiz win pick is a 10/1 morning line overlay that outrates the public's top choices by a significant margin.

win3Jess Perfect MoonML 10/1

Jess Perfect Moon (No. 3) is the most compelling overlay on today's card — a 76.88 TrackWiz rating at 10/1 on the morning line means the public is dramatically undervaluing this horse. Trainer Angel Almaguer pairs with Victor Manuel Urieta, Jr., one of the sharper riders at this meet, and a 19% career win rate shows this horse knows how to get to the wire first. At 400 yards, there's enough ground for a horse with real class to track down the early speed and close — Jess Perfect Moon profiles as exactly that type.

place8The Cartel MasterML 4/1

The Cartel Master (No. 8) opens at 4/1 and carries a 63.15 TrackWiz rating, making him the public's likely top choice even though our ratings put him second. Trainer Bradley C. Bolen and jockey Francisco Giles are a reliable combination at Lone Star, but a 9% career win rate is on the thin side for a horse this well-fancied. He'll likely find the board, but the value is in using him underneath Jess Perfect Moon rather than on top.

show5Nsm Eddy the EagleML 3/1

Nsm Eddy the Eagle (No. 5) brings a 20% career win rate into optional claiming company — a respectable figure — and the 3/1 morning line makes him one of the public co-favorites. Trainer Jose Medrano gives the mount to Jose R. Herbert, and the 58.26 TrackWiz rating puts him solidly in the middle of the pack. At the slightly longer 400-yard distance, horses with proven stamina and a solid win percentage tend to hold their form, and this horse fits that profile.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 9

10:33 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 250 yd · Dirt

A wide-open 12-horse maiden claiming dash at 250 yards where the top-rated horse is a clear standout, but two legitimate threats lurk underneath at fair prices to make exotics worth building carefully.

win8Rr ChromeML 5/2

Rr Chrome (No. 8) is the top-rated horse in this maiden claimer with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating — matching the highest score among all win picks on today's card. Trainer Martin Rodriguez sends out Francisco Giles, and the 5/2 morning line accurately reflects the public's read on this horse's chances. In a 12-horse field of non-winners, a rating this far above the competition usually translates directly to results, and Rr Chrome is the cornerstone of every exotic ticket in Race 9.

place3Foxy CartelML 9/2

Foxy Cartel (No. 3) rates second in the field at 69.09 and offers a morning line of 9/2 — solid value for the second-best horse on our ratings sheet. Trainer Ricardo Aguirre pairs with Arturo Alvarez, and at 250 yards, this horse profiles as a quick-breaking type who can use gate speed to secure an early position and hold on for a piece. She's a key inclusion in exactas and trifectas.

show2Rio ShacarriML 3/1

Rio Shacarri (No. 2) checks in at 64.38 on the TrackWiz scale and opens at 3/1 — the morning line second choice, which suggests the public may be more bullish on this one than our ratings fully support. Trainer Jose Luis Sanchez III and jockey Raul Padilla Hernandez, Jr. combine on this runner, and the short 250-yard trip should suit a horse with gate quickness. As a show hedge, the 3/1 price is workable, and the rating is strong enough to keep this horse honest in any outcome scenario.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 12 runners

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Today at Lone Star it's heat, dirt, and speed — and our top plays span from a juicy 12/1 longshot in Race 1 to the high-rated Stakes contender Trillion in Race 3 for the free-play crowd. Subscribers get the complete roadmap for all nine races, including pace angles and exotic ticket breakdowns for the back half of the card. Don't handicap blind — the full analysis is one click away at TrackWiz premium. Good luck out there.

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