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Lone Star Picks & Predictions — September 11, 2026
It's a hot one at Lone Star Park — 93 degrees under partly cloudy skies as the horses hit the track for a 9-race Friday card. The surface is all dirt today, and with that kind of heat baking the ground, expect a fast, consistent strip that should reward early speed across the board.
The card is loaded with short-burst quarter horse sprints ranging from 220 yards all the way out to 550 yards, so pace identification is everything. There's a little something for everyone today — a Stakes race in Race 3 headlining the action, a handful of wide-open maiden events, and some optional claiming spots that could throw up a price or two.
Nine races, nine opportunities. Let's break it down.
Best Bets
Race 1
Claiming · 550 yd · Dirt
A wide-open 550-yard claiming dash where the morning line favorite isn't our top-rated horse — two double-digit longshots sit atop the TrackWiz ratings and could scramble the tote board.
Jody Jones lands at the top of our ratings (73.96) despite being chalked at 12/1 on the morning line — that's the kind of overlay that gets handicappers excited. Trainer Brian Stroud sends her out with jockey Victor Manuel Urieta, Jr. in the irons, a pairing worth watching. At 550 yards, the extra ground compared to typical sprint distances should suit a horse who can sustain a run, and the rating gap over most of this field is significant. If she fires her best effort, she's the most dangerous horse in here.
San Francisco (No. 8) carries a 72.98 TrackWiz rating and draws the attention of trainer Raul Rodriguez, Jr., who puts Rigoberto Camarillo Ortega aboard. Posted at 3/1 on the morning line, the public is at least partially aware of this one, but the rating suggests she belongs right at the top of the order. She profiles as a stalwart exotics anchor even if she doesn't get up to win.
Kvn Valiant Corona opens as the 2/1 morning line choice for a reason — the public likes what they see, and a 15% career win rate gives this horse legitimate credibility in a field where most starters are closer to single digits. Trainer Arnold Lewis sends out J.R. Ramirez, Jr., a rider who handles short sprints well at this circuit. At the short price, the value isn't explosive, but for show purposes in a wide-open race, this horse rounds out a solid exotics ticket.
Race 2
Maiden Claiming · 220 yd · Dirt
A full field of maiden claimers going the minimum 220 yards, with a standout TrackWiz rating at the top suggesting one horse may have a decisive edge over a wide-open group of first-timers and non-winners.
Handdelivered Famous (No. 2) is the clear top-rated horse in this race with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating — a number that stands nearly 20 points clear of the second-best horse in the field. Trainer Hector R. Osorio puts Rosendo E. Pina Garcia in the saddle, and the 7/2 morning line reflects solid public confidence without making this a total chalk situation. In a wide-open maiden claimer at 220 yards, raw ability tends to show itself quickly, and this horse's profile screams class edge over the competition.
Look Before Hawkeye (No. 12) rates second in the field at 63.67 and opens at 2/1 as the morning line second choice, suggesting the public is tracking this one closely. Trainer Alvin Lee Turner pairs with H. Javier Hernandez, a jockey who gets his share of winners at this meet. The gap between her rating and the rest of the field outside the win pick is meaningful, making her a reliable place contender in exotics.
Fmm Tellerima Corona (No. 5) slots in third on our ratings at 59.18 and offers some mild value at 8/1 on the morning line. Trainer Enrique Alvarado sends this one out with Olvin Josue Martinez up — a rider with plenty of experience going this short. For tri and superfecta plays, this horse fills the third slot nicely while offering a touch of overlay on the morning line.
Race 3
Stakes · 300 yd · Dirt
Stakes company at 300 yards with a clear top pick in the ratings, but an intriguing underdog sitting at 8/1 that outrates the odds-on morning line favorite — the value story here is too good to ignore.
Trillion (No. 8) carries the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 87.11 and is correctly positioned as the 5/2 morning line second choice — though our ratings suggest he should be closer to even money. Trainer Gilberto Gonzalez sends out Alejandro Medina, and in stakes company at 300 yards, raw ability tends to be the deciding factor. The rating gap between Trillion and the third-best horse in the field is substantial, and in a short sprint, that kind of edge usually translates to finishing position.
A Political Risk (No. 3) is the most interesting horse on the card at 8/1 — a TrackWiz rating of 79.79 that actually tops the morning line favorite Catalina Scratch (59.67) by a wide margin. Trainer Oscar Nunez, who also conditions the favorite, may be getting a stronger runner at a much better price. Jockey Gilberto Linares gets the call, and if you're building exotics, this horse is essential.
Catalina Scratch (No. 4) is the public's choice at 6/5 and trained by Oscar Nunez — the same barn that sends out our place pick, A Political Risk. That dual-entry angle cuts both ways, but Catalina Scratch's 59.67 rating is well below both horses above her in our order. She'll need the competition to underperform to outrun her odds, but as a show hedge in a stakes race, her trainer edge keeps her relevant.
TrackWiz is giving everyone a free look at the first three races to kick off the card. The opener is a 550-yard claiming sprint, and our top pick Jody Jones stands out as a massive overlay at 12/1 on the morning line — that kind of price in a sprint field is exactly the spot to pay attention to. Race 2 shifts to the short 220-yard dash with Handdelivered Famous (7/2) posting an 86-point TrackWiz rating and drawing strong signals in the maiden claiming ranks.
The headliner of the free trio is Race 3 — a Stakes at 300 yards where Trillion comes in at 5/2 with an 87.11 rating, the highest of the first three races on the card. Stakes horses at Lone Star in this distance tend to separate cleanly off the break, and on a firm, sun-baked track today, the first jump out of the gate could be decisive. These three races set the tone for the afternoon and all carry solid angles worth digging into.
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Today at Lone Star it's heat, dirt, and speed — and our top plays span from a juicy 12/1 longshot in Race 1 to the high-rated Stakes contender Trillion in Race 3 for the free-play crowd. Subscribers get the complete roadmap for all nine races, including pace angles and exotic ticket breakdowns for the back half of the card. Don't handicap blind — the full analysis is one click away at TrackWiz premium. Good luck out there.