Daily Picks

Lone Star Picks & Predictions — July 12, 2026

Sunday, July 12, 202611 racesLone Star

It's a scorcher at Lone Star Park this Sunday, July 12th — 92 degrees under partly cloudy skies, which means the dirt is almost certainly playing fast and hard. That's important context heading into an 11-race card that mixes maiden claimers, allowance company, and a couple of turf routes that should draw some quality horses seeking relief from the speed-favoring main track.

We've got a nice spread today across surfaces and distances — six furlongs on the dirt dominates the card, but there are three turf outings including a 7½-furlong allowance optional claimer and a mile maiden special weight on the grass that both figure to attract pace scenarios we love to attack. In total, TrackWiz has identified value at multiple price points across the card, including a pair of standouts rating 87 or higher.

Three races are fully free to all readers today — Races 1, 2, and 3 — giving you a solid early-card foundation. The full 11-race breakdown is available to TrackWiz subscribers.

Best Bets

Race 1

6:35 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claimer at 6 1/2 furlongs where nobody has broken their maiden yet — but two horses separate themselves clearly from the pack on the TrackWiz ratings.

win5Go LangML 5/1

Go Lang tops the TrackWiz ratings in this field at 78.22, a significant edge over most of the competition, and the 5/1 morning line actually offers some overlay potential if bettors gravitate toward the lower-priced horses. Trainer Jerenesto Torrez knows this track and jockey Rene Diaz brings solid local experience to the partnership. With an average speed figure of 54 matching several rivals, the edge here is in the composite rating — Go Lang simply grades out better. In a field of first-time or winless runners, top ratings tend to hold up.

place6OnthethirstysideML 7/2

Onthethirstyside sits just behind Go Lang in the ratings at 76.09, making this a logical exacta pairing with the top pick. Trainer Mindy J. Willis and jockey Stewart Elliott are a familiar local combo, and at 7/2 on the morning line there's some value if Go Lang gets bet down. The average speed figure of 54 keeps this one competitive on pure numbers.

show2Promise Me MoneyML 3/1

Promise Me Money draws the 2-hole with the second-highest morning line favoritism at 3/1, and trainer Jayde J. Gelner's runner carries a 62.23 TrackWiz rating — third-best in the field. Jockey Deshawn L. Parker is an active rider at Lone Star, and this horse's profile suggests a race to be competitive without necessarily winning outright, making it a sensible show play and trifecta anchor.

Race 2

7:02 PM EDT

Claiming · 4 1/2 fur · Dirt

A short-field sprint at 4 1/2 furlongs where class and consistency clash — the top-rated horse looks like a potential runaway, but there's a sneaky value play lurking at a big price.

win2Classic MomentML 3/1

Classic Moment is the standout here, posting a 79.31 TrackWiz rating and the best career win percentage in the field at 39% — that's a serious number in a claiming sprint. Trainer Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez also saddles Filly Crystal, so the barn clearly likes this race, but Classic Moment is the preferred runner. Jockey Geovanni Franco gets the call, and the average speed figure of 57 ties for the top mark in the field. At 3/1, this is a case where the morning line favorite is also the most defensible pick.

place8Ore MineML 15/1

Ore Mine is the value play of this race — a 15/1 morning line price with a 69.58 TrackWiz rating that actually grades out third in the field. The average speed figure of 57 ties Classic Moment and Augusta Melody, and trainer Ronnie E. Cravens III has runners at both ends of the card today. If Classic Moment falters or gets shuffled in the early speed battle at 4.5 furlongs, Ore Mine with Rene Diaz aboard looks well-positioned to secure a piece.

show5Trust DaddyML 4/1

Trust Daddy brings a 69.26 rating and a matching avgSpeed of 57 to this sprint, making him a legitimate contender despite a modest 16% career win rate. Trainer Steven M. Asmussen is one of the top conditioners in the country and son Erik Asmussen rides — the family barn knows how to place horses. At 4/1, Trust Daddy is a fair price to fill out the exacta or trifecta.

Race 3

7:29 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 7 1/2 fur · Turf

Turf gets the call for Race 3 at 7 1/2 furlongs, and a clear class standout makes this look like a potential single — but the Asmussen barn has two live runners that could complicate things.

win3MultiplicationML 2/1

Multiplication is the most compelling horse on the entire early card, posting an 88.54 TrackWiz rating that dwarfs the competition in an allowance optional claiming field. Trainer W. Bret Calhoun is one of the sharpest turf conditioners in the region, and jockey Jose L. Alvarez gets the mount. A 30% career win rate is strong at this level, and while the avgSpeed of 54 isn't the highest in the field, the overall rating gap is simply too large to ignore. At 2/1, you're not getting rich, but this is the kind of horse you put on top of your exotics.

place4BellavininoML 4/1

Bellavinino from the Asmussen barn carries a 77.80 rating and draws the 4-hole at 4/1 on the morning line. Stewart Elliott rides, and while a 21% career win rate isn't flashy, Asmussen horses at Lone Star tend to run to their number. The average speed figure of 55 is a tick above Multiplication, which suggests Bellavinino could have the early pace edge — making this a natural place horse if the top pick runs its race.

show2Wandering KirbyML 3/1

Wandering Kirby at 3/1 looks like a sneaky threat with the second-best rating in the field at 71.43 and a robust 36% career win percentage — highest in this race. Trainer Tristan Ashford is an emerging name locally, and Lane J. Luzzi is a capable partner. The concern is that 36% career win rate hasn't translated to a win here yet, which is why show looks like the right spot — Wandering Kirby should be in the mix at the finish.

The free portion of today's card covers the first three races, and there's a genuinely interesting thread running through them. In the opener — a maiden claiming sprint at 6½ furlongs on the dirt — Go Lang (5/1 morning line) is our top pick at a price that reflects real value for a horse our models rate at 78. Race 2 tightens up quickly with Classic Moment installed as the 3/1 favorite in a 4½-furlong claiming dash, a short-field sprint where early pace control is everything on a track playing this quick.

Race 3 is the one to watch early — Multiplication opens as the 2/1 chalk in an allowance optional claimer on the turf going 7½ furlongs, and a TrackWiz rating of 88.54 makes that morning line look completely fair. The turf course figures to be a different world from the sizzling main track today, and horses with confirmed turf form get a significant leg up. If you're building early multi-race tickets, these three races give you a solid foundation to work from.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

7:56 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

An allowance sprint at 6 furlongs that looks like it sets up as a clear two-horse race at the top, but a pair of longshots with surprising profiles could make the exotics pay handsomely.

win4Curly's One ThingML 8/5

Curly's One Thing carries an 8/5 morning line and a 79.83 TrackWiz rating — the top mark in this allowance field by a clear margin. Trainer Steven M. Asmussen puts son Erik in the irons, which is typically a sign the barn has confidence. The average speed figure of 56 leads the field outright, and while the 7% career win rate looks modest, allowance horses often carry complicated records due to tougher competition. The combination of top rating, best speed figure, and a Hall of Fame trainer makes this the foundation of the card.

place1Get Back Jo JoML 15/1

Get Back Jo Jo is the standout value in this race — a 15/1 morning line price with a 69.58 TrackWiz rating and an eye-catching 33% career win percentage that trails only Warrior's Edge in this field. Trainer Dick Cappellucci sends out Alfredo J. Juarez Jr. to handle the rail draw, and while the 53 average speed figure is a step below the top pair, that win rate suggests this horse knows how to finish. At 15/1, this is a legitimate place contender and a must-use in exactas.

show8He Is Heaven SentML 9/2

He Is Heaven Sent checks in at 57.90 on the TrackWiz scale with a 9/2 morning line, slotting in as a mid-tier contender in a race where the top end is pretty clear. Trainer Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez is busy on this card and clearly has his horses fit, and jockey Geovanni Franco is a reliable partner. The 13% career win rate is underwhelming but the speed figure of 55 keeps this one in the conversation for a piece of the trifecta.

Race 5

8:23 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A full field of 11 at a mile makes Race 5 one of the trickier puzzles on the card — the TrackWiz ratings show a clear top three, but a double-digit field on dirt at a mile means pace will matter enormously.

win5Twelve VoltML 5/1

Twelve Volt sits atop the TrackWiz ratings in this race at 84.17, which is a substantial edge in a field where most horses are bunched between 70-75. Trainer Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez has multiple runners on today's card, suggesting a barn in form, and Floyd Wethey Jr. gets the mount. A 16% career win rate in a claiming field at a mile is respectable, and the 53 average speed figure should be enough to be competitive late. The rating gap here is the story — Twelve Volt is the class of this field by the numbers.

place8Cat GamerML 7/2

Cat Gamer is the most intriguing horse on the second tier, with a 75.94 rating and a 22% career win rate that's among the best in this field. Trainer Justin R. Evans is sharp at this level, and David Cabrera gets the assignment from post 8 — a workable spot in a mile race. The 54 average speed figure is a tick above Twelve Volt, which might actually mean Cat Gamer has the edge on raw speed and could challenge if the pace heats up.

show2Texian DevilML 10/1

Texian Devil offers a compelling price at 10/1 on the morning line while posting a 73.12 TrackWiz rating — third-best in the field. The 30% career win rate is the highest among any horse in this race, which is a meaningful number, and trainer Martin Manuel Valdez-Cabral also has Gasoline in this race, so the barn is double-barreled. Richard E. Eramia gets the mount, and at 10/1, Texian Devil makes a lot of sense as a show play and a trifecta component.

Race 6

8:50 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

Race 6 is a 12-horse allowance sprint that looks like a value hunter's paradise — the top-rated horse is priced at 8/1 on the morning line, suggesting the crowd may be sleeping on the most talented runner in the field.

win6Sweet MarleyML 8/1

Sweet Marley is the play here, and the 8/1 morning line price looks like a genuine overlay. The TrackWiz rating of 79.79 is the highest in this field, and a 33% career win rate — tied for tops in the race — tells you this horse has figured out how to win. Trainer Steven M. Asmussen and jockey Erik Asmussen are the barn's preferred team, and at 6 furlongs on dirt, a horse with top ratings and top win percentage at a value price is exactly what you're looking for. Get on Sweet Marley early before the tote catches up.

place5Edge ChaserML 7/2

Edge Chaser rates second in this field at 75.97 and goes at 7/2 on the morning line — a fair price for the second-ranked horse. Trainer J.R. Caldwell sends out Lane J. Luzzi from post 5, which is a clean tactical position in a 12-horse sprint. The 14% career win rate isn't overwhelming, but the speed figure and rating suggest this horse regularly runs well enough to hit the board, making it a natural place play.

show10Claire's CurlinML 6/1

Claire's Curlin at 6/1 rounds out our vertical ticket at 74.84 on the TrackWiz scale — solid but a notch below the top two. The 25% career win rate is encouraging for a show play, and trainer Danny Pish with Weston Hamilton in the irons from post 10 gives this horse a wide trip but free-running lanes late. In a competitive 12-horse field, getting 6/1 on a horse with a 25% win rate and a strong composite score is quality value.

Race 7

9:17 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A full field of 14 on turf at 1 1/16 miles is about as chaotic as it gets — but one horse's TrackWiz rating stands so far above the rest that the pace scenario almost doesn't matter.

win6News At NineML 4/1

News At Nine is the class of this field and it isn't particularly close — an 85.62 TrackWiz rating that clears second place by over 15 points is a substantial edge in any field, let alone a 14-horse turf claimer. Trainer W. Bret Calhoun is adept at placing horses on the lawn, and Jose L. Alvarez in the irons from the 6-hole is a clean draw in a route. The 15% career win rate looks ordinary, but that number can be deceiving in turf route claiming races where trips matter. At 4/1, News At Nine is the most logically defensible top selection on the card.

place13Mongolian MemoryML 9/2

Mongolian Memory checks in at 70.42 on the ratings scale — second-best in the field — and carries a 17% career win rate with Geovanni Franco and trainer Robertino Diodoro, one of the meet's more active conditioners. The 9/2 morning line is a fair reflection of this horse's talent relative to the field, and the 54 average speed figure on turf is right in the mix. Diodoro also sends out Bold Discovery in this race, giving him two chances to win, but Mongolian Memory is clearly the barn's top gun.

show12Wow That's HotML 8/1

Wow That's Hot at 8/1 is worth a look in the trifecta with a 68.65 TrackWiz rating — third-best in this race. The 26% career win rate is one of the higher marks in this field, which is notable, and the Asmussen connection (trainer Steven M. Asmussen, jockey Erik Asmussen) adds barn confidence. In a 14-horse field on turf, getting 8/1 on a horse with a 26% win rate and a top-three rating is a value angle you can't ignore.

Race 8

9:44 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Race 8 is a wide-open 12-horse claiming sprint where three horses are separated by less than two points at the top of the TrackWiz ratings — this one may come down to pace and post position.

win10Contessa's SongML 5/1

Contessa's Song tops our ratings at 77.22 despite a 5/1 morning line that suggests the crowd is looking elsewhere — that's the kind of overlay that wins long-term. Trainer Martin Manuel Valdez-Cabral sends out Alfredo J. Juarez Jr., a proven local jockey, and the average speed figure of 53 is in line with most of this field. The 11% career win rate is on the lower side, but the composite rating edge over a tight, competitive field is what makes this the selection.

place2Avalon GirlML 10/1

Avalon Girl at 10/1 is a genuine value play in this race, posting a 76.88 TrackWiz rating — just 0.34 points behind the top selection — while being priced at five times the odds of some shorter-priced rivals. Trainer Tristan Ashford's horse carries a 21% career win rate and posts from the 2-hole, giving jockey Iram Vargas Diego options from the inside. This is exactly the kind of horse that sneaks into the exacta at a fat price.

show11Miss SundazeML 4/1

Miss Sundaze is the public's second choice at 4/1 for good reason — a 23% career win rate and the best average speed figure in the race at 55 give her a tangible edge in raw numbers. Trainer Isaiah Ortiz and jockey Richard E. Eramia are a workmanlike pairing, and from post 11 this horse gets daylight from the start. The 75.75 TrackWiz rating confirms she belongs in this conversation, making her a logical show play even if the top two edge her out.

Race 9

10:11 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

Race 9 features a dominant top selection on paper, but the place and show prices offer real intrigue — including a 12/1 overlay that the TrackWiz numbers say is being massively underestimated.

win7Sands of TimeML 3/1

Sands of Time is the top-rated horse on the entire Lone Star card at 87.08, which is a number that demands respect in any field. Trainer Justin R. Evans places this horse at 3/1 on the morning line — fair odds for a horse this clearly superior — with David Cabrera getting the call. The 20% career win rate is steady, and the 55 average speed figure ties several rivals, so the edge is purely in the composite TrackWiz rating. This is a horse you want on top of every exotic ticket in Race 9.

place1Fair HopeML 12/1

Fair Hope at 12/1 is the value play of the race — and potentially of the entire card. A 66.90 TrackWiz rating slots this horse second in the field, yet the morning line has Fair Hope priced like a longshot. Trainer Scott E. Young has a good feel for this track, and Floyd Wethey Jr. gets the mount. A 20% career win rate matches the top selection, and the 55 average speed figure is right on par. If the crowd bets Rooster J down near even money, Fair Hope at 12/1 for a place spot is the steal of the day.

show2Rooster JML 5/2

Rooster J is likely to be heavily bet at 5/2 given the Asmussen barn connection — trainer Danny Pish sends out Erik Asmussen — but the 66.64 TrackWiz rating trails Fair Hope ever so slightly. The 20% career win rate and 55 average speed figure are identical to Fair Hope, making the morning line price difference feel like a market overreaction to the barn connection. Rooster J is a legitimate show play but the better value is elsewhere at the top.

Race 10

10:38 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A massive 14-horse field at 6 furlongs makes Race 10 a handicapper's grind, but one horse stands head and shoulders above the rest on the ratings — and the crowd should know it by post time.

win6PositivityML 7/2

Positivity carries an 86.35 TrackWiz rating — the clear top mark in a 14-horse field — and the 7/2 morning line suggests the public is starting to catch on. Trainer Justin R. Evans, who also has Prisoner in this race, clearly prefers Positivity with David Cabrera aboard. A 25% career win rate and an average speed figure of 56 that ties for tops in the field give this horse legitimate on-paper credentials. In a 14-horse sprint, a horse this far clear on the ratings is a must-bet.

place13Competitive IdeaML 6/1

Competitive Idea at 6/1 is the second-best rated horse in this race at 69.39, and trainer Dick Cappellucci sends out Floyd Wethey Jr. — a reliable pairing at this track. The 24% career win rate is solid, and the 55 average speed figure is right in the pack. At 6/1, Competitive Idea is the kind of place play that makes exactas pay — not the flashy pick, but the one that shows up consistently.

show3Grazen SunML 10/1

Grazen Sun is the third pillar of our ticket here, carrying a 68.96 TrackWiz rating and the highest average speed figure in the field at 57 — a number that absolutely jumps off the page. Trainer Robertino Diodoro and jockey Geovanni Franco are an active combo on today's card, suggesting the barn is confident. A 20% career win rate at 10/1 morning line pricing is a clear value angle, and that raw speed figure suggests Grazen Sun could easily end up in the money even if things don't set up perfectly.

Race 11

11:05 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Turf

The finale is a 14-horse maiden special weight on the turf at a mile — nobody has broken their maiden yet, but the ratings gap between the top contenders and the rest is wider than usual for a maiden field.

win3WolfberryML 2/1

Wolfberry draws the 3-hole and tops the TrackWiz ratings at 88.08 — the highest rating of any horse in the final four races of the day. Trainer Austin Gustafson gets Deshawn L. Parker aboard, and the 2/1 morning line reflects real public confidence. The 54 average speed figure on turf is among the best in the field, and in a maiden field on a route, horses that simply have more ability than their rivals tend to find a way to win. This is a horse worth putting on top of multi-race sequences.

place12Honor GodML 6/1

Honor God at 6/1 is the second-best rated horse in the race at 82.71 — a massive gap over the third-ranked runner — and trainer Eduardo Cruz sends out David Cabrera, a savvy turf rider. The 53 average speed figure is a tick below Wolfberry but well clear of most of the field. In a maiden turf route with a lot of unknowns, having the second-best composite score at 6/1 is precisely the kind of place value that builds a bankroll over time.

show6Invasion GirlML 9/2

Invasion Girl at 9/2 is the third horse in what looks like a clear top tier in this maiden field, posting a 77.10 TrackWiz rating with Erik Asmussen aboard for trainer Kari Craddock. The 52 average speed figure is on the lower end of the top group, but in a maiden field where many runners are first-timers or lightly raced, that number is still competitive. At 9/2 in a wide-open maiden, Invasion Girl is the right show play to complete the trifecta.

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Today at Lone Star it all starts with Multiplication in Race 3 as the marquee free-card selection, but the real juice is deeper in the card — Sweet Marley at 8/1 in Race 6 and Sands of Time at 3/1 in Race 9 (rated 87.08) headline the premium slate. Eleven races, 92-degree heat, and a fast Lone Star strip — it's a full day of action. Subscribers get everything; free readers get a strong start with the first three. Good luck out there, and as always, bet responsibly.

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