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Lone Star Picks & Predictions — July 11, 2026

July 11, 202611 racesAll Lone Star picks

This card ran on July 11, 2026.

Best bets at Lone Star, July 11, 2026

Race 12Breaker WaveML 2/12:35 PM EDT

Race 2 is free with an account, and the other 9 races are for members.

A free account opens race 2 too. Premium opens all 11, with AI ratings on every runner and SmartBet, which splits one bet across the horses you like.

Last 30 days at Lone Star: our top pick won 19 of 63 races (30%) and finished in the money in 37.

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It's a scorcher out at Lone Star Park this Saturday — clear skies and 94°F mean the dirt is going to be lightning fast and the turf could get a little stressed as the afternoon wears on. Keep that in mind as you work through a packed 11-race card that has something for every kind of bettor, from maiden claimers to a five-stakes weekend showcase.

The card builds beautifully from a pair of maiden openers into a loaded back half featuring five stakes races across both surfaces. Stakes action kicks off in Race 7 and doesn't let up through the turf-mile finale in Race 11, where Colonel Yorke headlines at 3/1 on the morning line. That's the kind of Saturday Lone Star lives for.

TrackWiz has full analysis on all 11 races. The first three are on us — free to every reader. Races 4 through 11 are locked for subscribers, and trust us, the premium half of this card is where the real meat is.

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Race 1

2:35 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A maiden claiming sprint where the top two TrackWiz-rated horses separate themselves from a thin field — the real question is whether the morning-line favorite or the top-rated runner hits the wire first.

win2Breaker WaveML 2/1

Breaker Wave owns the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 88.54 and carries morning-line favoritism at 2/1 for a reason. David Cabrera gets the call, and this horse matches Runaway Roxy's best average speed figure while rating well above every other rival in the field. In a maiden claiming sprint at 6½ furlongs, an edge in overall rating this large is hard to dismiss — Breaker Wave looks like the right side of the exacta.

place1Crime SceneML 3/1

Crime Scene rates just behind at 84.61 and goes postward at 3/1 for trainer M. Brent Davidson with Richard Eramia up. The gap between these two and the rest of the field is significant, which sets up a natural exacta pairing — if Breaker Wave stumbles, Crime Scene should be right there to pick up the pieces.

show6Wanna RockML 5/2

Wanna Rock at 5/2 morning line is the third-highest rated runner (71.49) and gives trainer Danny Pish a live shot on the board. The figure edge over the bottom half of the field is real, and at short prices across the board, Wanna Rock rounds out the trifecta nicely as the most defensible third option.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

3:02 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Bravitas looms as a clear class standout in this maiden claiming mile, but trainer Steven Asmussen sends him out at 8/5 — the question for bettors is whether the value lies elsewhere in the exotics.

win8BravitasML 8/5

Bravitas tops the TrackWiz ratings at 89.12 and hits the board at 8/5 with jockey Erik Asmussen, keeping it in the barn for trainer Steven Asmussen. Asmussen's operation at Lone Star consistently delivers with well-prepared first-timers and lightly raced horses, and Bravitas' rating stands nearly six points clear of the next-best runner. At a mile on dirt, stamina is at a premium, and this horse profiles as the most complete package in the field.

place3Captain BloodML 5/2

Captain Blood rates at 83.22 for trainer Justin R. Evans and gets David Cabrera aboard — a solid jockey/trainer combo that knows how to place a horse competitively. At 5/2 on the morning line, Captain Blood offers a bit of value if Bravitas doesn't fire, and a mile trip could suit a horse that may need racing room to get into stride.

show5Carl ErskineML 3/1

Carl Erskine comes in at 81.57 for trainer Martin Manuel Valdez-Cabral at 3/1 morning line with Alfredo J. Juarez, Jr. in the irons. The rating is tight enough with Captain Blood that either could fill the show slot, and at a fair price, Erskine makes sense in the bottom of trifectas as a horse who rates competitively against the top tier.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Our three free races give you a solid runway into the afternoon. Breaker Wave opens things up in the 6½-furlong maiden claimer — on a day when the fast dirt is rewarding early speed, a horse that can put up honest fractions in the first quarter mile has a real edge. In Race 2, Bravitas stretches to a mile for the maiden claimers and comes in as the morning-line favorite at 8/5 with a TrackWiz rating of 89.12, the highest of the free trio. Then we flip to turf for Race 3, a maiden special weight at a mile where Flat Out Blessed draws our eye at a juicy 4/1 — always good to find a value play in the first grass race of the day before the market gets sharp.

The common thread across these three? Surface versatility and pace awareness matter early. The heat tends to back off horses that went too hard in the morning, so watch the energy expenditure in warm-ups before you finalize anything.

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Race 3

3:29 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Turf

A wide-open maiden special weight mile on the turf with a 12-horse field and no dominant speed figure — Flat Out Blessed stands out on TrackWiz ratings but faces a full field on a surface that can produce surprises.

win6Flat Out BlessedML 4/1

Flat Out Blessed carries a 85.62 TrackWiz rating — easily the best in this turf maiden field — and goes at 4/1 for trainer Tiffany Hernandez with Deshawn L. Parker in the irons. An average speed figure of 54 is competitive here, and that 30-point-plus rating gap over the next cluster of horses is the kind of separation that shows up at the wire on turf routes. Parker has the experience to find a clean trip in a full field, and this horse looks like the play.

place1None But the BraveML 7/2

None But the Brave rates at 55.83 for trainer W. Bret Calhoun, a name that consistently fires at Lone Star, and Jose L. Alvarez gets the call from post 1. The inside draw on a turf mile can be a double-edged sword, but Calhoun knows how to position horses on this surface — at 7/2 morning line, this one is a logical second in the exacta.

show12No Bull PeteML 9/2

No Bull Pete posts a 54.17 rating and an average speed figure of 55 — the best raw speed figure among the contenders after Flat Out Blessed. Lane J. Luzzi rides for trainer Scott E. Young from an outside post draw, which on turf can actually work in your favor with fewer traffic concerns. At 9/2, this is a clean show-slot option and a natural trifecta inclusion.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 12 runners

Race 4

3:56 PM EDT

Allowance · 7 fur · Dirt

Mo for Us looks like a class standout in this 7-furlong dirt allowance, but Misty Muppet's overlooked speed figures make this more interesting than the morning line suggests.

win4Mo for UsML 2/1

Mo for Us is the top TrackWiz-rated runner at 88.54 and carries a 33% career win rate — the best among any horse in this field. Trainer Steven Asmussen puts Erik Asmussen in the irons, keeping it in the family, and at 2/1 morning line, this is a deserving chalk. An average speed figure of 55 matches the best in the race, and a career win percentage that strong in an allowance field is a meaningful edge.

place8Misty MuppetML 10/1

Misty Muppet is the value angle here — a 67.88 rating that outscores Legal Empress and Electrifying Lady while sitting at 10/1 on the morning line. Trainer Danny Pish puts Weston Hamilton up, and this filly's average speed figure of 55 ties the best in the race. The morning-line price feels too generous for a horse that grades this well, making her the most interesting exotic play in the race.

show1Electrifying LadyML 6/1

Electrifying Lady opens at 6/1 with a 63.81 rating and carries a 23% career win rate for trainer Steven Asmussen and jockey Stewart Elliott. Asmussen having two horses in the race is worth noting — Electrifying Lady likely sets or stalks the pace, and if Mo for Us is the barn's A-game, this one could benefit from a cozy trip. Good show-bet profile at the price.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 5

4:23 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A competitive 6½-furlong dirt allowance where the top of the TrackWiz ratings is bunched and the pace scenario could shuffle the order — Dust Em's morning-line favoritism at 2/1 sets up a potential value play on Victory for Vets.

win4Victory for VetsML 5/2

Victory for Vets tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 despite going off at 5/2 morning line — a slight overlay compared to Dust Em at 2/1. Jose L. Alvarez gets the mount for trainer W. Bret Calhoun, who is one of the sharpest horsemen at this meet, and the 56 average speed figure ties the top of the field. The 87.81 rating edging Dust Em's 81.46 is a meaningful gap, and Calhoun's horses in allowance company at Lone Star are worth following closely.

place7Dust EmML 2/1

Dust Em at 2/1 is the morning-line favorite and rates a strong 81.46, backed by a 30% career win rate for trainer Karen E. Jacks. Stewart Elliott rides, and the 55 average speed figure keeps this horse competitive with the top of the field. Even with Victory for Vets getting the win call, Dust Em's consistency and that win percentage make a place finish very likely — this is a natural exacta pair.

show10Tom SawyerML 10/1

Tom Sawyer is a sneaky show-spot inclusion at 10/1 for trainer Steven Asmussen with Alfredo J. Juarez, Jr. in the irons. The 75.81 TrackWiz rating is actually the third-highest in the field despite the double-digit morning line, and a 56 average speed figure matches the best in the race. When Asmussen sends one out at 10/1 in a field where the rating says top-three, it's worth at minimum a trifecta ticket.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 6

4:50 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Turf

An unusually deep 14-horse turf allowance mile where three horses — Inwood Drive, Marc, and Promissione — are separated by less than two points at the top of the TrackWiz board, setting up a compelling top-tier battle.

win14Inwood DriveML 9/2

Inwood Drive edges this loaded field with an 84.90 TrackWiz rating and carries a 25% career win rate — the best among the top-three rated horses. Trainer Steven Asmussen sends this one out at 9/2, which feels like a fair price given the depth of the field, and Erik Asmussen picks up the mount. A 53 average speed figure is consistent with the turf mile pace scenario here, and the combination of top rating, career win percentage, and Asmussen's turf record makes this the most complete profile in the race.

place10MarcML 2/1

Marc is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 and rates just off the top at 84.39 for trainer Steven Asmussen. Erik Asmussen is listed on this one too — check the program for the final jockey assignment — but a 20% career win rate and the Asmussen stable's turf proficiency mean Marc is every bit as dangerous as the top pick. The 2/1 number makes it hard to take as a straight win bet, but as a place/exacta piece it's rock solid.

show2PromissioneML 4/1

Promissione at 4/1 for trainer Danny Pish rates at 83.55 — just a point and a half behind Marc — with Weston Hamilton up. This horse's 52 average speed figure is slightly below the top group, but the rating is very much in the conversation. Pish has a knack for turf horses at Lone Star, and at 4/1 in a wide-open field, Promissione is a must-include in trifecta combinations.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 14 runners

Race 7

5:17 PM EDT

Stakes · 5 fur · Dirt

A short and sharp 5-furlong stakes on dirt featuring a clear morning-line favorite in Golden Rey, but the tight rating spread at the top means the right pace scenario could completely change the order of finish.

win7Golden ReyML 7/5

Golden Rey heads the TrackWiz ratings at 59.33 and draws in as the 7/5 morning-line favorite with Deshawn L. Parker in the irons for trainer Jayde J. Gelner. An average speed figure of 54 matches Stillashop at the top of the field, and Parker is one of the more reliable riders at this meet when pointed at a short sprint. At 5 furlongs, early speed is king, and Golden Rey's combination of top rating and sharp morning-line price reflects a horse that fits this spot perfectly.

place1StillashopML 7/2

Stillashop rates just behind at 55.83 for the powerful Asmussen barn with Erik Asmussen up, at a fair 7/2 morning line. The 54 average speed figure is identical to Golden Rey's, and Asmussen horses in stakes company tend to be well-prepared — if Golden Rey gets into a pace duel, Stillashop could pick up the pieces late in this short sprint.

show2ToddML 4/1

Todd draws in at 4/1 for trainer Danny Pish with Weston Hamilton aboard, rating at an even 55.00 — the second-best mark in the field. No average speed figure is available for Todd, which adds a layer of mystery, but the rating and morning-line price suggest Pish likes this horse's chances in a stakes field this compressed. As a 4/1 show option, Todd is a reasonable trifecta anchor.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 8

5:44 PM EDT

Stakes · 6 fur · Dirt

Modo enters as a heavy 1/2 morning-line chalk, but our TrackWiz analysis actually points to Blingster as the stronger overlay — this is a rare spot where the public and the data are pointing in different directions.

win3BlingsterML 6/1

Blingster sits atop the TrackWiz ratings at 82.71 despite going off at 6/1 morning line — a significant overlay against the heavy favorite Modo. Trainer W. Bret Calhoun is one of the most accomplished conditioners at Lone Star, Jose L. Alvarez gets the call, and a 33% career win rate is the best in this 6-furlong dirt stakes field. Speed figure-wise, Blingster matches the 55 average of several rivals, and when the ratings gap this clearly favors a double-digit morning-line horse over the chalk, that's a pattern worth acting on.

place5Golly HollyML 8/1

Golly Holly rates at 71.19 for the Asmussen stable with Erik Asmussen in the irons and opens at 8/1 — a price that looks too long given an average speed figure of 55 and a 21% career win rate. Asmussen horses often improve off their first start in a stakes context, and Golly Holly's numbers profile well enough for a confident place call. Good value in the exacta.

show8ModoML 1/2

Modo is the betting favorite at 1/2 on the morning line — and while the 68.22 TrackWiz rating actually places third behind Blingster and Golly Holly, the 41% career win rate is eye-popping and demands respect. Trainer Kinnon LaRose has this one cranked up, and with Lane J. Luzzi up, Modo will likely be on or near the lead. Even as a show pick here, this horse belongs in every exotic combination.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 9

6:11 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 mi · Turf

The closing turf stakes mile features a morning-line favorite (Sky Rocker at 2/1) that our TrackWiz ratings don't fully endorse — Kissin Riches and Imaluckycharm both rate higher, setting up a potential upset scenario.

win2Kissin RichesML 9/2

Kissin Riches carries the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 77.91 while opening at 9/2 — a notable overlay against the 2/1 morning-line chalk. Stewart Elliott picks up the mount for trainer Mindy J. Willis, an interesting same-barn angle with Sky Rocker, and a 54 average speed figure is right in line with the field. A 12% career win rate is modest, but this is a horse that TrackWiz projects as the most likely winner at a price that offers real value.

place5ImaluckycharmML 6/1

Imaluckycharm is the most intriguing horse on the entire ticket — a 72.23 TrackWiz rating and a staggering 47% career win rate, the highest in any race on today's card. Floyd Wethey Jr. rides for trainer Karen E. Jacks, and an average speed figure of 55 is the best in this field. At 6/1 morning line, this is a legitimate win contender being priced like a minor threat — find a way to get this horse in your exotics.

show1Sky RockerML 2/1

Sky Rocker opens as the 2/1 favorite with Alfredo J. Juarez, Jr. up for trainer Mindy J. Willis. A 33% career win rate and 71.86 rating keep this horse in the conversation, but the TrackWiz numbers suggest the public price is a bit short. Sky Rocker fits best as a show/trifecta inclusion rather than the top of a win ticket today.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 10

6:38 PM EDT

Stakes · 5 fur · Dirt

A wide-open 5-furlong dirt stakes for fillies and mares where the ratings are tightly bunched and Showgirl Swifty's perfect career record adds an unusual wrinkle — but it's Tequila Mischief heading our analysis.

win3Tequila MischiefML 2/1

Tequila Mischief leads the TrackWiz ratings at 58.33 and draws in as the 2/1 morning-line favorite for trainer Danny Pish with Deshawn L. Parker aboard. An average speed figure of 55 matches the top runners in the field, and Pish has two horses going in this race — a sign the barn is active and engaged. In a sprint stakes where margins are thin, the top rating paired with morning-line favoritism is the most actionable combination on the board.

place1RyvitettaML 4/1

Ryvitetta rates right behind at 55.00 for trainer Steven Asmussen with Erik Asmussen aboard, opening at 4/1. An average speed figure of 55 ties the top of the field, and Asmussen horses at Lone Star in sprint stakes have a strong track record. At 4/1, Ryvitetta is a natural exacta partner with Tequila Mischief and offers reasonable value in trifecta play as well.

show7So Shoe MeML 9/2

So Shoe Me opens at 9/2 for trainer W. Bret Calhoun with Jose L. Alvarez up, carrying a 54.17 rating that slots in just behind the top two. No average speed figure is available for this one, which creates some uncertainty, but Calhoun's sprint record at Lone Star is excellent and a fresh, well-placed horse from this barn at 9/2 deserves a spot on your ticket.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 11

7:05 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 mi · Turf

The nightcap is a deep 11-horse turf stakes mile where Colonel Yorke's 36% career win rate and top TrackWiz rating make him the clear standout, but Silver Assassin and Mor Victory are close enough to keep the exacta price interesting.

win7Colonel YorkeML 3/1

Colonel Yorke tops the TrackWiz board at 86.37 and carries an exceptional 36% career win rate — the best in this turf stakes field. Stewart Elliott takes the mount for trainer Mindy J. Willis, and a 54 average speed figure is consistent with the closing pace scenario you typically see on a turf mile. At 3/1 morning line, this is a horse the ratings strongly support, and a win percentage that high in stakes-caliber company is not something you ignore.

place1Silver AssassinML 5/1

Silver Assassin rates closely at 84.17 with a 19% career win rate and a sharp 56 average speed figure — the best raw number in the entire race. Floyd Wethey Jr. picks up the mount for trainer Karen E. Jacks, and that 56 speed figure on the grass over a mile is genuinely intriguing. At 5/1, Silver Assassin is a legitimate win contender and an excellent exacta partner with Colonel Yorke.

show6Mor VictoryML 5/2

Mor Victory sits at 72.04 for trainer Jayde J. Gelner with Erik Asmussen in the irons and goes at 5/2 morning line — an interesting short price for a horse that rates third in the field. A 25% career win rate and 55 average speed figure are both solid, and Asmussen/Gelner combining forces on a turf mile closer is a trend worth following. Even as the third pick, Mor Victory at 5/2 represents fair value as a show ticket and trifecta anchor.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 11 runners

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Bottom line: Lone Star is serving up a legitimate Saturday card with five stakes races, two surfaces, and conditions that could create some real pace dynamics in this Texas heat. Start with Bravitas and Breaker Wave on the free side, then let TrackWiz guide you through the premium stretch — especially that stakes-loaded back half. Full analysis is waiting for subscribers. Good luck out there, and bet smart.

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