Daily Picks

Lone Star Picks & Predictions — July 10, 2026

Friday, July 10, 20268 racesLone Star

It's a scorcher at Lone Star Park today — clear skies and 95°F on the thermometer as eight races go to post on Friday, July 10th. The heat is real, and on a day like this, pace meltdowns on the dirt are absolutely in play. Horses that can rate off the pace and finish strong have a structural edge when the sun is baking the strip.

The card mixes it up nicely: two stakes races, a pair of maiden special weights, two maiden claimers, an allowance on the turf, and an opening claiming sprint to kick things off. There's legitimate stakes action on both the dirt and the grass, which gives us plenty of angles to work with across the full eight-race program.

TrackWiz has rated the full card, and three races are open to everyone today — including a turf allowance (Race 3) and a stakes showdown (Race 2) that look like prime spots for value. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

11:35 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

A claiming sprint on the dirt where the top-rated contenders are tightly clustered and the morning line favorite looks beatable — this one could get interesting late.

win3She'sskysthelimitML 2/1

She'sskysthelimit posts the field's highest TrackWiz rating at 71.14 and carries a standout 29% career win rate — the best in this field by a clear margin. Trainer Karen E. Jacks keeps her sharp, and with Floyd Wethey Jr. in the irons, the connections are dialed in for a front-running or pressing effort over 7 furlongs of dirt. At 2/1 on the morning line, she's appropriately priced as the top pick, and the speed figures back it up: her avg speed of 54 is competitive across this group. If she gets a clean break, she's the one to beat.

place4SecuredML 15/1

Secured is the sneaky play in this race — a 69.58 rating that nearly matches the top choice, yet the morning line has her out at 15/1. Trainer W. Bret Calhoun is a name worth paying attention to in claiming company, and Jose L. Alvarez has the experience to position her correctly. The price alone makes her worth using underneath in exactas and trifectas.

show5Music MistressML 3/1

Music Mistress brings a 65.48 rating into this spot alongside the powerful Steven M. Asmussen barn, which is never a connection to dismiss in Texas. At 3/1, she's fairly priced, and with Erik Asmussen — the trainer's son — aboard, this is a tight family operation that often delivers. She's a solid hedge to anchor the bottom of your exotics.

Race 2

12:02 AM EDT

Stakes · 1 mi · Dirt

A one-mile dirt stakes over a field heavy with horses carrying zero career wins, making the two experienced runners stand out like beacons — pace and rating both point to a contested stretch run.

win4RB MADE YOU LOOKML 4/1

RB MADE YOU LOOK earns the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 85.62 — a significant edge in a race where most entrants are still searching for their first win. Trainer Jerenesto Torrez also saddles stablemate RB PROM QUEEN, giving the barn a strong two-pronged attack, and Alfredo J. Juarez Jr. is a capable pilot to navigate a one-mile dirt trip. The morning line at 4/1 offers fair value for what our analysis sees as the top horse.

place2RB PROM QUEENML 2/1

RB PROM QUEEN is no slouch either — an 83.24 rating and a remarkable 66% career win rate make her one of the most accomplished runners in this field on paper. Iram Vargas Diego gets the call, and the Torrez barn running two horses here suggests they like their chances from multiple angles. She's a natural place contender and a key leg in any exotics play.

show7HIGHH STAKESML 9/5

HIGHH STAKES is the only other runner in this field with a meaningful career win percentage at 23%, and trainer Thunder Johnson has three runners entered here — a volume play that suggests confidence in the stable's horses. At 9/5 on the morning line, she's the public's choice, but the rating (78.72) comes in third behind our top two. Good show-ticket value and a safe exotic anchor.

Race 3

12:29 AM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Turf

A full, wide-open allowance field on the turf mile with two horses well clear of the pack on ratings — but the pace scenario and surface could shuffle the deck.

win7Unlikely QueenML 3/1

Unlikely Queen tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.08 and draws trainer W. Bret Calhoun — a consistent barn in grass routes — with Jose L. Alvarez in the irons. She's a 12% career winner, which reads modestly, but in this field that's not disqualifying, and the rating gap between her and third-best is substantial enough to command respect. At 3/1 on the morning line, there's real value if she translates her rating to turf form.

place9CountessML 7/2

Countess comes in second on TrackWiz ratings at 84.62, and the Steven M. Asmussen / Erik Asmussen combo on a turf route is always a combination worth respecting — Asmussen conditions grass horses extremely well. She also carries a 25% career win rate, tied for the best in the race alongside Fantasy Girl, giving her a strong profile to hit the board. At 7/2, she's a legitimate place contender.

show1ToddyML 6/1

Toddy sits third overall in ratings at 71.75 and is trained by Jimmy Dale Dodwell with Lane J. Luzzi up. His 6/1 morning line means there's some value baked in for the show spot, and with an 11% career win rate in a deep turf field, he's capable of finding a piece. Use him underneath in tri keys to protect your ticket.

Our three free races today span the card nicely and give every reader a real shot at the windows. Race 1 kicks things off with She'sskysthelimit (2/1 morning line, TrackWiz rating 71.14) in a seven-furlong claiming sprint — a solid opener to get your bearings on how the dirt is playing early. Then Race 2 steps up sharply with RB Made You Look (4/1, rating 85.62) in a one-mile stakes — that morning line hints at some overlay potential if the crowd underestimates the class. The jewel of the free slate is Race 3, where Unlikely Queen (3/1, rating 87.08) takes on an allowance field going a mile on the turf. On a blazing hot day, the grass is where horses can breathe, and Unlikely Queen's rating leads the entire free portion of the card. She's our marquee free play.

One thread connecting these free picks: with temperatures pushing triple digits, watch for front-runners on the dirt to tire in the late stages. Horses with a proven ability to come from just off the pace — or who have turf form in their corner — get a quiet bump in our projections today. Keep that in mind as you build your tickets.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

12:56 AM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

This dirt stakes at a mile and a sixteenth features a legitimate top-rated standout, but a competitive cluster right behind it makes exacta construction tricky — don't sleep on the trainer angles here.

win7RS FORTEZAML 3/1

RS FORTEZA leads all horses with a 87.08 TrackWiz rating and pairs with trainer Nicole Ruggeri and Jose L. Alvarez — a sharp combo in stakes company. A 27% career win rate on a solid baseline of starts is a positive indicator, and our analysis sees the pace scenario setting up well for a horse with her profile at a route distance. At 3/1, she's the clear selection despite the morning line pointing to HIGHH COUNTRY as a slight public underlay.

place6HIGHH COUNTRYML 2/1

HIGHH COUNTRY is listed at 2/1 on the morning line but rates second at 78.85 — and trainer Nicole Ruggeri running two horses here with RS FORTEZA is a potential barn confidence signal. With a 28% career win rate and Mario Fuentes aboard, she won't go down without a fight. If the pace develops in her favor, she's the most likely horse to run RS FORTEZA down late.

show1RB DATE NYGHTML 5/1

RB DATE NYGHT is the most intriguing show-ticket piece in this race — a 77.56 rating and an eye-popping 66% career win rate for trainer Jerenesto Torrez. That win rate is genuinely remarkable, and Alfredo J. Juarez Jr. knows how to get horses home in route races. At 5/1 morning line, she's worth putting underneath in trifectas, especially if she gets covered early and rallies.

Race 5

1:23 AM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 7 1/2 fur · Turf

A maiden special weight on the turf with a 14-horse field — chaotic and wide open, as first-time and lightly raced runners make projection a challenge, but our top-rated horse has a sizable edge.

win8Made My PointML 5/2

Made My Point draws the 5/2 morning line and backs it up with the field's top TrackWiz rating at 87.81 — a meaningful gap above the second-rated horse in a large maiden field. Trainer Mindy J. Willis gets Stewart Elliott up for a 7.5-furlong turf trip, which gives the horse plenty of ground to find her stride after the break. In first-time or lightly seasoned maiden fields, a clear rating advantage often translates directly, and this filly looks like the one to beat.

place5SwiftliketaylorML 6/1

Swiftliketaylor rates 73.77 — second in the field — and goes at 6/1 on the morning line, which represents real value if she runs to her number. Trainer Ronnie E. Cravens III has Deshawn L. Parker in the irons, and with an avgSpeed of 54 in a maiden turf sprint, she should be competitive through the turn. A solid play to use underneath Made My Point in exactas at a price.

show6She's a KittenML 7/2

She's a Kitten sits third in ratings at 72.45 and goes at 7/2 — Lane J. Luzzi takes the mount for trainer Terry Eoff, a solid regional combination. In a 14-horse maiden turf field, having a show-spot horse with top-three ratings is the kind of overlay you want when building trifecta tickets. She's a natural closer in a potential jam-packed opening quarter.

Race 6

1:50 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A dirt maiden claiming sprint where a pair of horses clearly separate themselves from the rest of the pack — the question is whether the public has correctly priced the top selection.

win5Master Chief MikeML 5/2

Master Chief Mike leads the field with a 72.24 TrackWiz rating and carries the powerful Steven M. Asmussen / Erik Asmussen connection into a maiden claiming sprint — a barn that regularly targets these spots effectively. At 5/2 on the morning line, he's a legitimate top choice, and his avgSpeed of 52 should be competitive over 6.5 furlongs of dirt. In maiden claiming company, trainer win percentage in these spots often matters as much as anything, and Asmussen is as reliable as it gets in the Southwest.

place6Brass NucksML 2/1

Brass Nucks rates just behind at 69.36 and is listed as the 2/1 morning line favorite — meaning the public sees this differently than our model does, making her the chalk to respect but not necessarily chase. Trainer Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez also conditions Marks Golden Boy, so the barn has two darts in the board. Amin Castillo gets the mount, and her avgSpeed of 52 keeps her right in contention over this trip.

show8KochanML 9/2

Kochan comes in third on ratings at 63.8 with a 9/2 morning line — trainer Terry Eoff and Weston Hamilton make a quiet but capable combination in maiden claiming routes across Texas. She's the pace-presser type who could benefit if the two favorites duel early and leave something on the table. A useful show anchor in a race with a clear top three.

Race 7

2:17 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A six-furlong dirt maiden claimer where one horse is head-and-shoulders above the field on ratings, but there's a live longshot lurking at double-digit odds that exotics players should target.

win5Speaker BabyML 2/1

Speaker Baby posts an 84.40 rating — far and away the best number in this field — and draws 2/1 on the morning line, suggesting the public has found her too. Trainer Kevin Scholl gets Floyd Wethey Jr. aboard for a six-furlong dirt sprint, a distance that should suit a horse with her speed profile and avgSpeed of 53. In maiden claiming company, a 20-point rating gap over most of the field is significant — she should be tough to beat if she breaks cleanly.

place7Devilish SpringsML 10/1

Devilish Springs is the most interesting price in this race at 10/1 morning line — a 64.67 rating that slots her as the second-best horse by our numbers, and trainer Shon M. Dunlap has Rene Diaz up for the sprint. She's the type of horse that gets overlooked because the favorite draws so much attention, but at double-digit odds she's a perfect exacta anchor underneath Speaker Baby. Don't leave home without her on your ticket.

show6Trot This WayML 7/2

Trot This Way rates 55.83 and goes at 7/2 — trainer Dick Cappellucci sends out Alfredo J. Juarez Jr., a jockey who handles short dirt sprints well. She's not a monster on paper, but her avgSpeed of 53 is consistent with the leaders, and in a wide-open supporting cast she's a reasonable show play or trifecta piece at a workable price.

Race 8

2:44 AM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Turf

A sprawling 14-horse maiden special weight on the turf at five furlongs — one horse owns a massive ratings advantage and draws a short price, making the exotics the real opportunity here.

win7Bint Al DandyML 7/5

Bint Al Dandy is the standout of this entire card with a 89.42 TrackWiz rating — the highest single-horse rating across all eight races today — and heads to post at 7/5 as the deserving chalk. Trainer Austin Gustafson sends her out with Rene Diaz aboard, and an avgSpeed of 56 tops this field by two ticks. In a 14-horse maiden turf sprint, the pace can get messy, but a horse with this kind of rating separation tends to handle the chaos. She's a confident win selection.

place11Bird of PreyML 4/1

Bird of Prey represents the Steven M. Asmussen barn — never a bad angle in maiden turf sprints — and checks in with a 64.66 rating that puts her firmly second in this field. Erik Asmussen gets the call, keeping it a family affair, and her avgSpeed of 54 matches several others near the top. At 4/1 morning line, she's a natural exacta partner with the favorite and a solid place ticket.

show3Helene's PowerML 6/1

Helene's Power rates 57.14 and goes at 6/1 — trainer Danny Pish with Weston Hamilton up is a quiet combination that hits its spots in turf sprints. Her avgSpeed of 54 is consistent with the competitive middle of this large field, and in a race this wide at the bottom, third-best ratings can absolutely hold for a piece. She's a worthy show ticket and trifecta key at a fair price.

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Eight races, two stakes, and a furnace-hot afternoon at Lone Star — there's a lot to like about this card if you know where to look. Unlikely Queen is our headline free play, RB Made You Look offers stakes value at a double-digit morning line, and Bint Al Dandy closes the card as the top-rated horse on the entire program. Today's conditions reward patience and pace awareness — don't just bet the favorite on the front end and hope for the best. For the full picture — pace projections, exotic strategies, and all five premium races — subscribers have everything they need waiting at /pricing. Good luck out there, and let's cash some tickets.

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