Daily Picks

Lone Star Picks & Predictions — July 5, 2026

Sunday, July 5, 202610 racesLone Star

Happy post-holiday Sunday at Lone Star Park. Ten races are on the board for July 5, and the Texas heat is not taking a day off — we're sitting at 96°F under partly cloudy skies, which means the main track is likely to be lightning fast and horses that love to press early could get every advantage today. Keep that pace scenario in mind all afternoon.

The card mixes claiming races with a pair of allowance spots and a maiden special weight to close out the dirt action, plus three turf miles that could produce some genuinely interesting form. From the sprint opener through the turf closer on Race 10, there's plenty to dig into across all 10 races.

Best Bets

Race 1

6:35 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Bolt Supremacy enters this 5.5-furlong dirt claimer as a significant ratings outlier, but a competitive pace scenario and a field of seven keeps it honest.

win3Bolt SupremacyML 4/1

Bolt Supremacy carries the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 85.62 — a meaningful gap over the second-best horse — and trainer Dick Cappellucci saddles this runner with obvious intent. At 4/1 on the morning line, you're getting fair value on what looks like the class of this claiming field. The 5.5-furlong dirt trip suits horses who can fire early, and Bolt Supremacy's profile suggests enough punch off the break to control or sit close to the pace.

place7MobsterML 7/2

Mobster opens at 7/2 and earns a solid 65.33 TrackWiz rating, backed by a 15% career win rate that makes him one of the more reliable tickets in the field. Jockey David Cabrera is a capable hand, and trainer Scott E. Young tends to put horses on the board regularly at this level. As a place play, Mobster offers a nice bridge between upside and security.

show2Cause Mimi SaidML 5/2

Cause Mimi Said (62.75 rating, 5/2 ML) is the public choice despite a slightly lower rating than Mobster, which could mean the market sees something in the trainer-jockey combo. The 13% career win rate is modest but consistent, and Richard Eramia brings solid local experience. In exotics, Cause Mimi Said makes sense as a live show threat if the pace collapses the field.

Race 2

7:02 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Two horses — New York New York and Spunoutofmymind — are separated from the rest of the field by a wide ratings gap, setting up a potential exacta battle at the top.

win3New York New YorkML 2/1

New York New York is hard to dismiss here — a 85.47 TrackWiz rating, the top speed figure in the field at 56, and a 20% career win rate that stands out in a claiming field. Trainer Robertino Diodoro consistently delivers horses ready to fire, and jockey Geovanni Franco is a sharp tactical rider who knows how to use early speed at 6.5 furlongs. The 2/1 morning line reflects favoritism, but the numbers justify it.

place7SpunoutofmymindML 5/1

Spunoutofmymind comes in at 84.17 — just a nose behind New York New York on our ratings — and offers genuine upside at 5/1. Trainer Dick Cappellucci has two horses in this race, which signals barn confidence, and Alfredo Juarez Jr. is the pick of the two for the Cappellucci runners. If the favorite gets caught up in pace trouble, Spunoutofmymind has the figure to swoop.

show1Deacon JonesML 7/2

Deacon Jones opens at 7/2 despite a 4% career win rate, which seems high for a horse that rarely wins — but his 59.24 rating and Cappellucci barn connection make him a factor for at-the-money finishes. Floyd Wethey Jr. in the irons adds local familiarity, and in a race where the top two might battle each other into submission, Deacon Jones could sneak into the exotics at a reasonable price.

Race 3

7:29 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

An allowance sprint with a legitimate star at the top — Leila Mae is the class of the field, but Whata Moon and the Asmussen barn make this a genuinely compelling race.

win4Leila MaeML 5/2

Leila Mae posts the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 87.81 and backs it up with an exceptional 40% career win rate — numbers that simply don't lie in an allowance field. Trainer Steven M. Asmussen puts Stewart Elliott in the irons, a veteran who knows how to rate a horse over 5.5 furlongs of Lone Star dirt. At 5/2, this isn't a barn-burner price, but you're paying for quality, and Leila Mae delivers it.

place5Whata MoonML 2/1

Whata Moon (82.67 rating, 2/1 ML) actually opens as the public's choice over our top pick, which is worth noting. The 20% career win rate is solid, and Lane Luzzi is a capable partner for trainer Jayde Gelner. We like Leila Mae more on the numbers, but Whata Moon's public support makes her a necessary inclusion in exactas — she has the speed figure to run them all down if things go sideways for the favorite.

show3Copper WindML 7/2

Copper Wind at 7/2 is the third Asmussen horse in the race, and the barn sending three runners signals they believe in the field. A 72.96 rating and a standout 33% career win rate make this filly legitimately dangerous — that win percentage is the second-best in the field. Erik Asmussen aboard keeps it in the family, and Copper Wind is a must-include in trifecta tickets.

Our three free previews cover Races 1 through 3 — all sprint distance dirt affairs, which is exactly where the extreme heat becomes most relevant. Fast early fractions on a firm, sun-baked surface tend to reward horses that can sit just off the pace and pounce late, so watch for that angle as you look at Bolt Supremacy in the opener. Over in Race 3, Leila Mae draws our highest free-race rating at 87.81 in an allowance sprint — she's the kind of horse whose profile really pops when conditions are this favorable for speed. New York New York bridges the gap at 6½ furlongs in Race 2, listed at a short 2/1 morning line, so the value conversation will be front and center there.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

7:56 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A full field of ten goes a mile on the turf in a claiming event where two horses — Missingyoucrazy and Kitty House — are separated from the pack by a significant ratings margin.

win8MissingyoucrazyML 2/1

Missingyoucrazy earns the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 88.54 and carries the 2/1 morning line, making her the clear public choice. Trainer Mindy Willis and jockey Stewart Elliott have developed a productive partnership at this level, and the mile turf trip suits horses with a ground-saving, pressing style. The 12% career win rate is modest, but our model sees something the raw numbers don't fully capture — this horse is peaking.

place7Kitty HouseML 5/2

Kitty House checks in at a nearly identical 87.81 rating and opens at 5/2 — just a tick longer than the favorite, which makes her an outstanding place bet for value. Trainer Robertino Diodoro is one of the sharpest turf trainers operating in this region, and Geovanni Franco is his go-to rider for a reason. The pace scenario over a mile of turf often rewards patient horses, and Kitty House fits that profile.

show4Hand It OverML 7/2

Hand It Over (64.56 rating, 7/2 ML) offers the Asmussen barn angle with Erik Asmussen aboard — a combination that has clicked consistently at Lone Star. The 12% career win rate is unremarkable, but the 7/2 price on a well-connected runner with a mid-pack rating gives you genuine show security in a wide-open supporting cast. Worth including in trifectas.

Race 5

8:23 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

The morning line favorite isn't our top pick here — Airs At Juilliard and Curlin's Lil Gal give handicappers a pair of overlays to attack Mi Amiga's short price.

win6Airs At JuilliardML 6/1

Airs At Juilliard carries an 82.71 TrackWiz rating — the highest in the field — and opens at a generous 6/1 morning line, which suggests the public is underestimating this runner. A 33% career win rate is exceptional and leads the field comfortably. Trainer Eduardo Cruz has David Cabrera in the irons, a jockey who can rate a horse in a six-furlong allowance and still have something left for the drive. This is a legitimate value play.

place8Curlin's Lil GalML 8/1

Curlin's Lil Gal at 8/1 is one of the better overlays on the card — a 77.24 rating, the second-best in the field, at a price that says longshot. Trainer J.R. Caldwell saddles both Curlin's Lil Gal and Divine Wind, signaling barn depth in this race, and Lane Luzzi is an experienced handler who can navigate traffic in a competitive allowance sprint. The 20% career win rate is respectable, and if Airs At Juilliard draws out the speed, Curlin's Lil Gal can swoop late.

show3Divine WindML 4/1

Divine Wind (76.29 rating, 4/1 ML) posts the top average speed figure in the field at 56 and profiles as a natural pace presser over six furlongs. Trainer J.R. Caldwell running two horses shows confidence in the barn's chances today. At 4/1, Divine Wind is reasonably priced as a show ticket and a smart trifecta anchor given the raw speed.

Race 6

8:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

An eleven-horse mile claimer on dirt where Roman Eagle's top rating clashes with a morning line that suggests the market isn't fully sold — value hunters, take note.

win10Roman EagleML 3/1

Roman Eagle posts an 87.08 TrackWiz rating — the highest in the field by a clear margin — and opens at 3/1, a surprisingly generous price for a horse this well-rated. Trainer Austin Gustafson enters two horses in the race, and putting Jose L. Alvarez on Roman Eagle suggests that's the stable's preferred chance. The 54 average speed figure also leads the field among the contenders worth taking seriously.

place7Heats HeroML 5/2

Heats Hero at 5/2 opens as a co-favorite on the morning line despite a 79.74 rating — slightly below Roman Eagle — and an 11% career win rate that's modest at best. But Geovanni Franco is a strong tactical jockey, and trainer Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez clearly has this horse pointed right. Heats Hero's place prospects are strong if Roman Eagle gets involved in any pace duel early.

show3Mucho Macho CamML 6/1

Mucho Macho Cam (71.17 rating, 6/1 ML) stands third in our ratings and offers a clear show angle at a price. Trainer Alan Love Sr. keeps things simple with Rene Diaz up, and in a field this large, a horse with a legitimate top-three rating is exactly the kind of hidden show value worth adding to your tickets.

Race 7

9:17 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

Your Call is as dominant a favorite as you'll find on this card — a 40% career win rate and top rating in an eleven-horse turf field — but the exotics beneath her are wide open.

win10Your CallML 2/1

Your Call is simply in a class of her own here — an 88.54 TrackWiz rating, a jaw-dropping 40% career win rate, and the top average speed figure in the field at 56. Trainer Robertino Diodoro is one of the best turf conditioners in the region, and Geovanni Franco has the tactical awareness to save ground over a mile of turf and pounce when it matters. The 2/1 price won't excite value hunters, but the numbers demand respect.

place2BelmiraML 7/2

Belmira (73.16 rating, 7/2 ML) opens as the second choice and earns it — trainer Mindy Willis has Stewart Elliott in the irons, a veteran who consistently delivers clean trips on the turf. The 11% career win rate is modest, but Belmira's figure separates her from the mid-pack cluster, and she's a natural place play beneath a dominant favorite.

show11Mustang LadyML 9/2

Mustang Lady at 9/2 represents the Asmussen barn with Erik Asmussen up — a combination that's hard to dismiss even when the career win rate (2%) raises eyebrows. The 69.5 rating slots third in the field, and in an eleven-horse turf field where things can get messy, the show spot is very much in play for a well-trained runner at a fair price.

Race 8

9:44 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Dr. Soulfire leads a twelve-horse claiming sprint on dirt where the top rating is clear, but a pair of surprising overlays underneath make the exotics genuinely interesting.

win1Dr. SoulfireML 7/2

Dr. Soulfire posts the field's top TrackWiz rating at 86.35, and trainer Steven M. Asmussen has Erik Asmussen in the saddle — the barn's go-to combo at Lone Star. At 7/2, there's fair value on the top-rated horse, and the 55 average speed figure ties for the best in the field among the contenders. In a 5.5-furlong sprint, early positioning matters, and Dr. Soulfire has the profile to fire a big effort fresh.

place4Runhappy d'OroML 15/1

Runhappy d'Oro is the big overlay in this race — a 69.14 rating and a 15/1 morning line don't normally go together, and that gap is where the value lives. Trainer Dick Cappellucci has two horses in the race, and Alfredo Juarez Jr. on Runhappy d'Oro suggests this is the barn's main play of the two. The 12% career win rate won't scare anyone, but at 15/1, you're getting paid handsomely if this horse runs to his figure.

show6Run for KidderML 8/1

Run for Kidder (65.23 rating, 8/1 ML) is a legitimate third horse with a 15% career win rate and a consistent 55 average speed figure. Trainer Justin R. Evans runs two horses in this race and assigns Jose Alvarez to Run for Kidder, which is a positive signal. At 8/1, this is a sensible trifecta anchor — enough talent to hit the board, enough price to make it worthwhile.

Race 9

10:11 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Dirt

A twelve-horse maiden special weight sprint on dirt — the murkiest race of the card, with first-time starters and lightly raced juveniles making handicapping more art than science.

win3Prime AssetML 5/2

Prime Asset tops our ratings at 57.5 in a field where separating horses is genuinely difficult, and the Asmussen barn angle is real — trainer Steven M. Asmussen with Erik Asmussen up is a high-percentage combo for maiden debuts. The 55 average speed figure is the best recorded among horses with published figures in this field, which is meaningful context. At 5/2, this is the most credentialed horse in an unpredictable race, and that counts for something.

place8Western SwagML 4/1

Western Swag opens at 4/1 and earns a 55.0 TrackWiz rating — just a tick below Prime Asset — with trainer Dick Cappellucci showing confidence by entering this runner in a maiden special weight rather than a lower-level event. Alfredo Juarez Jr. knows Cappellucci's horses well and typically delivers sharp debuts for the barn. As a place play, Western Swag represents genuine value at a longer price than the top choice.

show1ToddML 9/2

Todd (54.17 rating, 9/2 ML) sits third in our ratings and gives trainer Danny Pish a chance to notch a result in a race he also enters God of Thunder in. Weston Hamilton handles the riding duties, and the 9/2 opening price is fair for a maiden race where the margins are razor-thin. In exotics for a chaotic twelve-horse field, Todd makes sense as a show hedge.

Race 10

10:38 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

The finale is a starter optional claiming sprint on turf where Successfulpath sets up as the class of a competitive nine-horse field, but a pair of double-digit overlays underneath make this race worth playing deep.

win9SuccessfulpathML 5/2

Successfulpath carries the top TrackWiz rating at 82.39, a 28% career win rate that leads the field outright, and an average speed figure of 56 that ties for best among the front-runners. Trainer J.R. Caldwell and jockey Lane Luzzi have a tight working relationship, and on a five-furlong turf sprint — a distance that rewards horses who can accelerate quickly — Successfulpath's combination of speed and win rate is compelling. The 5/2 morning line is reasonable given the profile.

place1Saltwater TaffyML 8/1

Saltwater Taffy opens at 8/1 with a 79.79 rating — second-best in the field — and that price discrepancy is where the value angle lives. Trainer Austin Gustafson assigns David Cabrera to this runner, and the 56 average speed figure matches the top horses in the race. If the public loads up on Successfulpath and a couple of shorter-priced runners, Saltwater Taffy could easily outrun her odds.

show6Happy N SmilingML 12/1

Happy N Smiling at 12/1 is the longshot show play — a 68.98 rating with a 27% career win rate and a 56 average speed figure that keeps pace with the best in the field. Trainer Austin Gustafson also runs Saltwater Taffy, and having two runners shows barn confidence in a small field. Iram Vargas Diego gets the call, and at 12/1, Happy N Smiling is a must-include in trifecta and superfecta tickets.

Premium Content

Get the Full Card Analysis

Unlock expert picks for every race, detailed speed figures, trainer angles, and our SmartBet recommendations.

View Plans Sign In

Bottom line for the afternoon: the heat and firm conditions point toward speed-friendly trips across the dirt sprints, while the turf miles offer the most intrigue for exacta and multi-race players. Leila Mae is our top-rated free pick at 87.81, and Missingyoucrazy and Your Call both clock in at 88.54 on the turf — those two are worth your attention in the premium card. Full analysis, pace maps, and exotic tickets are all waiting for subscribers at /pricing. Good luck out there today.

← Back to all picks

Best Bets

Race 1↗

Race 2↗

Race 3↗

Full Card Analysis

Get the Full Card Analysis

Race 1

Race 2

Race 3