Lone Star Picks & Predictions — July 5, 2026

Whata Moon (82.67 rating, 2/1 ML) actually opens as the public's choice over our top pick, which is worth noting. The 20% career win rate is solid, and Lane Luzzi is a capable partner for trainer Jayde Gelner. We like Leila Mae more on the numbers, but Whata Moon's public support makes her a necessary inclusion in exactas — she has the speed figure to run them all down if things go sideways for the favorite.

Copper Wind at 7/2 is the third Asmussen horse in the race, and the barn sending three runners signals they believe in the field. A 72.96 rating and a standout 33% career win rate make this filly legitimately dangerous — that win percentage is the second-best in the field. Erik Asmussen aboard keeps it in the family, and Copper Wind is a must-include in trifecta tickets.

Kitty House checks in at a nearly identical 87.81 rating and opens at 5/2 — just a tick longer than the favorite, which makes her an outstanding place bet for value. Trainer Robertino Diodoro is one of the sharpest turf trainers operating in this region, and Geovanni Franco is his go-to rider for a reason. The pace scenario over a mile of turf often rewards patient horses, and Kitty House fits that profile.

Hand It Over (64.56 rating, 7/2 ML) offers the Asmussen barn angle with Erik Asmussen aboard — a combination that has clicked consistently at Lone Star. The 12% career win rate is unremarkable, but the 7/2 price on a well-connected runner with a mid-pack rating gives you genuine show security in a wide-open supporting cast. Worth including in trifectas.

Curlin's Lil Gal at 8/1 is one of the better overlays on the card — a 77.24 rating, the second-best in the field, at a price that says longshot. Trainer J.R. Caldwell saddles both Curlin's Lil Gal and Divine Wind, signaling barn depth in this race, and Lane Luzzi is an experienced handler who can navigate traffic in a competitive allowance sprint. The 20% career win rate is respectable, and if Airs At Juilliard draws out the speed, Curlin's Lil Gal can swoop late.

Divine Wind (76.29 rating, 4/1 ML) posts the top average speed figure in the field at 56 and profiles as a natural pace presser over six furlongs. Trainer J.R. Caldwell running two horses shows confidence in the barn's chances today. At 4/1, Divine Wind is reasonably priced as a show ticket and a smart trifecta anchor given the raw speed.

Heats Hero at 5/2 opens as a co-favorite on the morning line despite a 79.74 rating — slightly below Roman Eagle — and an 11% career win rate that's modest at best. But Geovanni Franco is a strong tactical jockey, and trainer Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez clearly has this horse pointed right. Heats Hero's place prospects are strong if Roman Eagle gets involved in any pace duel early.

Mucho Macho Cam (71.17 rating, 6/1 ML) stands third in our ratings and offers a clear show angle at a price. Trainer Alan Love Sr. keeps things simple with Rene Diaz up, and in a field this large, a horse with a legitimate top-three rating is exactly the kind of hidden show value worth adding to your tickets.

Belmira (73.16 rating, 7/2 ML) opens as the second choice and earns it — trainer Mindy Willis has Stewart Elliott in the irons, a veteran who consistently delivers clean trips on the turf. The 11% career win rate is modest, but Belmira's figure separates her from the mid-pack cluster, and she's a natural place play beneath a dominant favorite.

Mustang Lady at 9/2 represents the Asmussen barn with Erik Asmussen up — a combination that's hard to dismiss even when the career win rate (2%) raises eyebrows. The 69.5 rating slots third in the field, and in an eleven-horse turf field where things can get messy, the show spot is very much in play for a well-trained runner at a fair price.

Runhappy d'Oro is the big overlay in this race — a 69.14 rating and a 15/1 morning line don't normally go together, and that gap is where the value lives. Trainer Dick Cappellucci has two horses in the race, and Alfredo Juarez Jr. on Runhappy d'Oro suggests this is the barn's main play of the two. The 12% career win rate won't scare anyone, but at 15/1, you're getting paid handsomely if this horse runs to his figure.

Run for Kidder (65.23 rating, 8/1 ML) is a legitimate third horse with a 15% career win rate and a consistent 55 average speed figure. Trainer Justin R. Evans runs two horses in this race and assigns Jose Alvarez to Run for Kidder, which is a positive signal. At 8/1, this is a sensible trifecta anchor — enough talent to hit the board, enough price to make it worthwhile.

Western Swag opens at 4/1 and earns a 55.0 TrackWiz rating — just a tick below Prime Asset — with trainer Dick Cappellucci showing confidence by entering this runner in a maiden special weight rather than a lower-level event. Alfredo Juarez Jr. knows Cappellucci's horses well and typically delivers sharp debuts for the barn. As a place play, Western Swag represents genuine value at a longer price than the top choice.

Todd (54.17 rating, 9/2 ML) sits third in our ratings and gives trainer Danny Pish a chance to notch a result in a race he also enters God of Thunder in. Weston Hamilton handles the riding duties, and the 9/2 opening price is fair for a maiden race where the margins are razor-thin. In exotics for a chaotic twelve-horse field, Todd makes sense as a show hedge.

Saltwater Taffy opens at 8/1 with a 79.79 rating — second-best in the field — and that price discrepancy is where the value angle lives. Trainer Austin Gustafson assigns David Cabrera to this runner, and the 56 average speed figure matches the top horses in the race. If the public loads up on Successfulpath and a couple of shorter-priced runners, Saltwater Taffy could easily outrun her odds.

Happy N Smiling at 12/1 is the longshot show play — a 68.98 rating with a 27% career win rate and a 56 average speed figure that keeps pace with the best in the field. Trainer Austin Gustafson also runs Saltwater Taffy, and having two runners shows barn confidence in a small field. Iram Vargas Diego gets the call, and at 12/1, Happy N Smiling is a must-include in trifecta and superfecta tickets.