Daily Picks

Lone Star Picks & Predictions — July 4, 2026

Saturday, July 4, 202610 racesLone Star

Happy Fourth of July from Lone Star Park, where the only thing hotter than the fireworks tonight is the Texas heat baking the track this afternoon. We're sitting at 98°F under partly cloudy skies, and that kind of scorcher can matter — horses working hard in this heat tend to tire faster, which means pace and trip will be critical factors all day long.

Ten races are on the board today, stretching from quick 5-furlong sprints on the dirt to a pair of mile routes on the turf in the back half of the card. We've got a nice mix of maiden action, claimers, and an allowance race to close things out in Race 9. Whether you're here for a casual Fourth of July flutter or you're grinding the full card, there's plenty to work with.

Three races are fully unlocked for every TrackWiz reader today — Races 1 through 3 — so let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

9:45 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

A maiden sprint where one horse stands out on paper, but trainer Thunder Johnson saddles two live runners to complicate the exacta picture.

win6UPTOWN TOP SHELFML 6/5

UPTOWN TOP SHELF draws the widest backing on the morning line at 6/5 and backs it up with a TrackWiz rating of 67.73 — a full ten points clear of the nearest rival. Trainer Carlos A. Padilla doubles up in this spot, suggesting stable confidence, and Mario Fuentes gets the call in the irons. In a field where most contenders are first-time-out unknowns, that rating edge is hard to dismiss.

place2UPTOWN TRUMPTHESSML 5/2

Stablemate UPTOWN TRUMPTHESS (No. 2) makes a compelling place play at 5/2 on the morning line. She shares the same Padilla barn and shows an average speed figure of 47, matching the top of the field. If the stable has two live ones in here, an exacta keying the two Padilla runners makes sense.

show5RV RELENTLESSML 9/2

RV RELENTLESS (No. 5) checks in with a 52.38 rating and an average speed figure of 46, giving trainer Ken Danyluk a respectable contender at 9/2. In a wide-open maiden field this short, a closer-style trip could land him in the exotics. At that price, he's a solid show-bet hedge.

Race 2

10:13 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Two horses dominate the TrackWiz ratings in this maiden claimer, setting up a sharp top-two battle while the rest of the field looks overmatched.

win7Captain BloodML 8/5

CAPTAIN BLOOD (No. 7) is the standout, posting a field-best TrackWiz rating of 89.12 — a significant margin over the competition in this maiden claimer. Floyd Wethey Jr. picks up the mount, and trainer Justin R. Evans puts him in a spot where the class looks right. An average speed figure of 53 ties for the top of the field, and that combination of rating and raw speed makes this the most confident top selection on the card so far.

place1Rip CordML 9/5

RIP CORD (No. 1) is the other standout here, carrying a 71.67 rating and an average speed of 53 under the guidance of Hall of Fame trainer Steven M. Asmussen. The 9/5 morning line tells you the public agrees, but the place payoff could still be worthwhile in a race where the top two are clearly separated from the field. Stewart Elliott has been a solid hand at this meet.

show4Verrazano's GoldML 9/2

VERRAZANO'S GOLD (No. 4) sits third in the ratings at 54.17 and shows a speed figure of 51 — a tick below the top two but meaningful in a field where most runners grade out below 45. Trainer Terry Eoff gets Thiago Canuto, who's active at this meet. At 9/2, he's a reasonable show ticket if the chalk hits any trouble.

Race 3

10:41 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

An 8-horse maiden claimer at 5½ furlongs features a clear top-rated filly, but a pairof closely-bunched speed figures in the 51-54 range could set up a contested pace that opens the door for a closer.

win5Adelyn's RockingML 5/2

ADELYN'S ROCKING (No. 5) leads this field with a TrackWiz rating of 87.81 and an average speed figure of 53, the kind of edge that demands respect at 5/2 on the morning line. Trainer Mark N. Hibdon sends her out with Rodolfo Guerra in the irons, and the 5½-furlong dirt distance looks like a comfortable fit. When the top-rated horse also posts competitive raw speed numbers, it's hard to argue against making her the centerpiece of your ticket.

place4Cinco BlakeML 7/2

CINCO BLAKE (No. 4) runs second in the field with a 69.33 rating and the highest average speed figure in the race at 54, which is worth noting in a sprint. Floyd Wethey Jr. is a reliable presence aboard for trainer M. Brent Davidson. At 7/2, he represents real value as a place horse and could easily outrun his odds if the pace scenario sets up for him.

show7Go LangML 8/5

GO LANG (No. 7) might be the most interesting wrinkle on the show end — he's the 8/5 morning-line favorite despite ranking third in our ratings at 66.02. That suggests public money sees something beyond the numbers, whether it's a live workout or trainer Jerenesto Torrez's eye for spotting horses in the right spot. A 53 speed figure keeps him competitive, and at even-money or shorter, he's worth including in your show parlay.

Our free selections today are concentrated in the early dirt sprints, and that's actually a useful angle in this heat. Shorter distances mean less time for fatigue to compound, so the morning lines in these races are at least partially reliable barometers. UPTOWN TOP SHELF opens the card as a 6/5 morning-line favorite in the 6-furlong Maiden Special Weight — a hefty price signal that the barn believes in this one. Over in Race 2, Captain Blood (8/5 ML) carries our highest rating of the free trio at 89.12, making that horse our most confident early-card selection. Adelyn's Rocking rounds out the free card in Race 3's 5½-furlong maiden claimer at 5/2 on the morning line — a touch of value compared to the chalk.

One thing connecting all three free picks: they're all breaking from the gate on a track that's been baking in triple-digit heat. First-jump alertness and gate presence become even more important when the surface is dry and fast. Keep an eye on how these horses load — any signs of agitation in the heat could be a red flag worth noting before you finalize tickets.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

11:09 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 7 1/2 fur · Turf

An 11-horse maiden field goes two turns on the turf, and with no career winners in the group, form is thin — making TrackWiz ratings and speed figures the clearest path to separating contenders.

win1Big Bang BoomML 5/2

BIG BANG BOOM (No. 1) leads all comers with a TrackWiz rating of 87.81 — a number that stands alone in this field — and posts an average speed figure of 53. Trainer Danny Pish sends Weston Hamilton aboard, and the 5/2 morning line is fair for a horse with this kind of rating edge going first off the bench on the lawn. The 7½-furlong turf trip rewards a horse that can carry speed or rate mid-pack, and Pish's runners tend to show up ready.

place6FiftyshadesofnautiML 5/1

FIFTYSHADESOFNAUTI (No. 6) slots in nicely at 74.91 on our ratings and also averages a speed figure of 53, matching several horses in this field but with a better overall profile. Stewart Elliott, who has been sharp at this meet, takes the ride for trainer Alejandro Baldillez Jr. At 5/1 on the morning line, there's genuine place value here — this isn't just a gap-filler.

show9Shanghai CupidML 9/2

SHANGHAI CUPID (No. 9) rounds out our top three with a 71.44 rating and a 53 average speed, landing right in the cluster of turf-capable contenders. Trainer Jose R. Gonzalez Jr. puts Alfredo J. Juarez Jr. up, and the 9/2 morning line leaves enough room for a profitable show return. In a large turf field where traffic can be a factor, having multiple coverage horses is smart betting.

Race 5

11:37 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A nine-filly maiden claimer at 5½ furlongs where G's Twisted Tale posts a dominant rating but the mid-pack is tight enough that the exotics could get spicy.

win2G's Twisted TaleML 7/2

G'S TWISTED TALE (No. 2) leads this field decisively with a TrackWiz rating of 86.35 and an average speed figure of 54 — the best raw speed number in the race. Trainer Donna Hjort teams with Lane J. Luzzi, a jockey who knows how to rate a filly in a sprint. At 7/2, this is a fair price for the class of the field, and our analysis suggests she should be your anchor in any exotic structure.

place5Shine Gem ShineML 6/1

SHINE GEM SHINE (No. 5) makes a compelling place play at 6/1 on the morning line. Her 63.34 rating and 53 average speed figure put her squarely in the second tier, and trainer Danny Pish with Weston Hamilton is a sharp combination that punches above its weight. The longer price adds real value to a place wager.

show4Holiday CruiseML 5/1

HOLIDAY CRUISE (No. 4) sits third in our ratings at 58.54 with a 52 average speed figure and breaks from a post that puts her in a good position to track the pace. Trainer Javier Ruiz Ortiz runs two in this race, which can sometimes signal confidence in both runners. At 5/1, she's a logical show hedge if you're spreading in the exotics.

Race 6

12:05 AM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A full field of nine older horses goes a flat mile on the dirt in a claiming race where experienced runners with real win percentages separate from the maidens — and one horse clearly stands out in the ratings.

win9Thousand WinsML 9/2

THOUSAND WINS (No. 9) tops the field with a TrackWiz rating of 84.9 and has won 20% of career starts, showing this horse knows how to close out a race. Trainer Jayde J. Gelner hands the reins to Lane J. Luzzi, a veteran who handles a mile well. At 9/2 on the morning line, there's value here — a horse with this rating and a proven win percentage is underpriced in our estimation.

place6Cuvee's BellaroseML 6/1

CUVEE'S BELLAROSE (No. 6) stands out with a 25% career win rate — tied for the highest in the field — paired with a 78.0 rating and a 53 average speed figure. Trainer Danny Pish, who also runs Gambling Den here, clearly has the barn firing and Deshawn L. Parker takes the mount. At 6/1, this is a sneaky-good place play on a horse that wins a quarter of the time.

show8Speaking of ArtML 4/1

SPEAKING OF ART (No. 8) rates third in our model at 72.23 with a 12% career win rate and a 53 average speed figure. Trainer Karen E. Jacks sends out Weston Hamilton, who has been riding confidently. At 4/1, she's attracting morning-line support for a reason — she can put herself in the race over a mile and should factor for a piece.

Race 7

12:33 AM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A turf mile claiming race with a clear top-two on the ratings, but a field that includes horses with solid win percentages keeps this from being a runaway — pace setup on the lawn will matter.

win8MoneylineML 2/1

MONEYLINE (No. 8) dominates the TrackWiz ratings at 88.54 — the highest score in the race by a healthy margin — and carries a 9% career win rate that suggests he can compete at this level. David Cabrera is a live pilot, and trainer Shawn H. Davis sends him out at 2/1 on the morning line. While the price isn't generous, a horse with this kind of rating lead in a turf route deserves to be respected at or near the chalk.

place2HamlinML 9/5

HAMLIN (No. 2) is the natural complement here, rating 76.71 in our model with a 20% career win rate — the highest in the field and a number that commands attention. Trainer Robertino Diodoro is a high-percentage operator whose horses win when they're supposed to, and Geovanni Franco provides an experienced turf hand in the saddle. At 9/5, a place wager on Hamlin may not excite, but pairing him with Moneyline in an exacta at those prices could still return solid value.

show4RangoML 6/1

RANGO (No. 4) brings a 72.43 rating and a 13% career win rate to the table, and trainer Mindy J. Willis taps Stewart Elliott — one of the more dependable jockeys in this barn area. At 6/1 on the morning line, Rango represents genuine value for the show slot and is a good candidate for the third spot in a trifecta. His average speed figure of 53 keeps him competitive in a field that's relatively tightly bunched from third on down.

Race 8

1:01 AM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Dirt

A maiden sprint for fillies and mares where the ratings cluster tightly at the top — separation is slim, making this a competitive puzzle and a strong exotic race.

win3Kamikaze CowgirlML 5/2

KAMIKAZE COWGIRL (No. 3) leads our model at 57.5 with an average speed figure of 55 — the highest raw speed number in this race and a meaningful edge in a 5-furlong sprint where early velocity matters. Trainer Danny Pish saddles two in this race, and Weston Hamilton gets the call here, which suggests Pish's confidence is with this filly. At 5/2, the price is fair for a horse that profiles as both the fastest and best-rated runner in the field.

place4RyvitettaML 3/1

RYVITETTA (No. 4) rates almost identically to the top pick at 56.67 and draws a big-name connection in trainer Steven M. Asmussen, who sends out his own son Erik Asmussen to ride. That family combo at a major barn is worth noting — Asmussen doesn't waste spots. With no prior speed figure on file, there's some first-out mystery here, but the barn's track record warrants inclusion at 3/1.

show8Wicked StartML 7/2

WICKED START (No. 8) slots in third at 55.83 with an average speed figure of 54 and carries the Asmussen barn flag alongside Ryvitetta — Stewart Elliott takes over here. Having two Asmussen runners in the same maiden sprint suggests the trainer sees a competitive field and is hedging, which often means both are live. At 7/2, Wicked Start makes a sensible show or trifecta piece.

Race 9

1:29 AM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

An allowance sprint at 6 furlongs showcases the meet's best talent, with three horses in the 80-plus range jostling for position — this is the day's marquee race for speed-figure and ratings nerds.

win2MellencampML 7/2

MELLENCAMP (No. 2) tops our TrackWiz ratings at 86.35, outscoring the field despite carrying a 12% career win rate that suggests there's upside still to unlock. Floyd Wethey Jr. picks up a live mount for trainer Dick Cappellucci, who knows how to place a horse in the right spot. At 7/2 on the morning line, this is one of the day's better value plays — a top-rated allowance runner priced above the chalk.

place4Berry MischievousML 5/2

BERRY MISCHIEVOUS (No. 4) is the most accomplished horse in the field by win percentage at 30% — nearly one in three starts results in a win, which is exceptional. A 83.27 rating pairs with an average speed figure of 56, the highest in the race, giving trainer J.R. Caldwell a genuinely dangerous horse at 5/2. Rene Diaz is an active rider who won't be caught sleeping up front.

show9Strong PotentialML 9/5

STRONG POTENTIAL (No. 9) checks in at 80.2 on our model — third in the field — with a 14% career win rate and a 55 average speed figure. Trainer Steven M. Asmussen lands Stewart Elliott in the irons, and the 9/5 morning line indicates public confidence. Three horses with 80-plus ratings in one race makes for a legitimate show-leg challenge, but Strong Potential at even-money or below still anchors an exacta or trifecta nicely.

Race 10

1:57 AM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A sprawling 14-horse turf mile at a mile on the claiming circuit — with this many runners, pace scenarios get chaotic and finding live longshots becomes part of the game.

win4Imua KaiML 3/1

IMUA KAI (No. 4) leads the field with a TrackWiz rating of 76.11 and an impressive 27% career win rate — more than one in four races, a genuinely elite strike rate for this level. Trainer Matt Hebert sends Jose L. Alvarez aboard, and the 3/1 morning line reflects real confidence from the morning oddsmaker. An average speed figure of 54 keeps this horse in the conversation on a turf route where consistency over a mile matters.

place12Prince LancelotML 9/2

PRINCE LANCELOT (No. 12) brings the field's highest average speed figure at 58 — a notable advantage in a turf route where horses that can sustain a strong clip tend to thrive. His 73.92 rating is second-best in the race, though his 4% career win rate raises a caution flag. Trainer Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez gets Geovanni Franco up, and at 9/2, the place slot is where this horse makes the most sense given the win-rate question mark.

show11Texian DevilML 15/1

TEXIAN DEVIL (No. 11) is the most intriguing show play in the race at 15/1 on the morning line with a 69.58 rating — and a 33% career win rate that is the best number of any horse in this field. Trainer Martin Manuel Valdez-Cabral clearly has a horse that knows how to win, and Alfredo J. Juarez Jr. is familiar with this turf course. If Texian Devil fires anywhere close to his best form, a 15/1 show ticket could be among the day's sharpest plays.

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It's a big holiday card at Lone Star and the heat is on in every sense. Our top plays on the free card are Captain Blood in Race 2 and UPTOWN TOP SHELF to kick things off in Race 1. For the full picture — pace projections, exotic tickets, and every premium pick through Race 10 — the complete analysis is waiting for subscribers. Enjoy the Fourth, bet smart, and may your winners come in cool.

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