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Lone Star Picks & Predictions — September 24, 2026

September 24, 20268 racesAll Lone Star picks

It's a warm Thursday afternoon at Lone Star Park — partly cloudy skies and 91°F on the thermometer — and the quarter-horse sprint card is loaded with opportunities from the 220-yard dashes all the way out to the 440. Eight races, all on dirt, and TrackWiz has eyes on every single one of them.

The headliner today is the Stakes in Race 3 at 330 yards, but don't sleep on the Allowance matchups in Races 6 and 7, where our ratings flagged some real separation from the field. With the heat holding all day and the track playing fast, pace-pressers and early speed types are going to be at a premium — that angle runs through this entire card.

Three races are free for every reader, and our premium subscribers get the full treatment — all eight races broken down, with pace projections, exotic plays, and multi-race wager strategies. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

8:05 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 350 yd · Dirt

A clear class standout tops this Starter Optional Claiming sprint at 350 yards, but the morning line suggests the market is leaning toward the second choice — expect a mild pace battle off the gates.

win4La CholulaML 5/2

La Cholula (No. 4) is the most accomplished horse in this field by a wide margin, posting a TrackWiz rating of 87.81 — tops in the race — while boasting an outstanding 40% career win rate. Trainer Shae L. Cox puts her out at 5/2 on the morning line, reflecting genuine confidence in this spot. Jockey J.R. Ramirez, Jr. gets the call, and at 350 yards it's all about breaking clean and letting that pedigree take over. This is the horse to beat.

place1Vp Dash for TexasML 7/2

Vp Dash for Texas (No. 1) carries a solid 78.26 TrackWiz rating and a 15% career win rate — respectable numbers in a field where most rivals sit well below 70. Jesus Olivas has the rail post and can use that to advantage in this short sprint. At 7/2 on the morning line, there's a bit of value if La Cholula draws all the early money.

show5Lil Kool MargeML 9/5

Lil Kool Marge (No. 5) is the morning-line favorite at 9/5 with a 33% career win rate and a 77.71 TrackWiz rating — numbers that are hard to dismiss in any quarter-horse field. Trainer Esteban Rubio also conditions The Fiscal Chick in this race, so he has a read on this field. The 9/5 price makes her tough to back for win given La Cholula's edge, but she's a natural fit in the exotics.

Race 2

8:31 PM EDT

Claiming · 300 yd · Dirt

A sprawling 12-horse Claiming field at 300 yards where one horse stands well clear on our ratings — the question is whether the market price reflects that edge or whether there's hidden value underneath.

win5Runaway Prize DashML 2/1

Runaway Prize Dash (No. 5) paces the entire field with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating and draws the morning-line favorite slot at 2/1 for trainer Jose Luis Sanchez III. The 10% career win rate might look modest at first glance, but that rating gap over the next tier is significant — nearly 18 points clear of Eyen My Grace. Jockey Gilberto Linares has the call and should be comfortable launching from the five hole in a 300-yard dash where gate speed is everything.

place4Eyen My GraceML 8/1

Eyen My Grace (No. 4) is our value play underneath, sitting at 8/1 on the morning line despite holding the second-highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 70.84. A 10% career win rate in a deep claiming pool isn't alarming — what stands out is the rating advantage over the bulk of this field. Oliver E. Martinez rides, and if there's any trouble in the gate from the heavy chalk, Eyen My Grace is well-positioned to pick up the pieces.

show8Rude BoiML 3/1

Rude Boi (No. 8) sits at 3/1 on the morning line for trainer Abraham Rangel and carries a 69.64 TrackWiz rating — the third-best number in this race. Alejandro Medina is an active rider at this meet and knows how to get a horse out of the gates in these short dashes. At those odds, Rude Boi is a natural show ticket anchor and fits comfortably in trifecta coverage.

Race 3

8:57 PM EDT

Stakes · 330 yd · Dirt

Stakes company at 330 yards and two horses separate themselves from the rest of this field — it shapes up as a two-horse race at the top with a potential upset lurking from a surprisingly high win-rate runner.

win2Dw Showin D OffML 2/1

Dw Showin D Off (No. 2) shares the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 88.54 and backs it up with a 28% career win rate — the kind of consistency that plays well in stakes-level sprints. Trainer Dee Keener sends him out as the 2/1 morning-line favorite, and Roman Cruz gets the mount. In a 330-yard dash, you want a horse who knows how to win, and that 28% strike rate says this one does.

place1TrillionML 3/1

Trillion (No. 1) checks in with a 67.89 TrackWiz rating and a 16% career win rate, drawing the rail for trainer Gilberto Gonzalez. Alejandro Medina — who's been busy across this card — takes the mount. The rail is a double-edged sword at 330 yards, but if Trillion breaks clean, this horse has the profile to track the favorite and hold for second money.

show8This Cowboys an EagleML 7/2

This Cowboys an Eagle (No. 8) rounds out the top three on our ratings at 64.96 and offers 7/2 morning-line value for trainer Joseph D. Manucy. A 14% career win rate is workmanlike but tells you this horse has figured out the winner's circle before. Raul Padilla Hernandez, Jr. handles the riding duties, and in a stakes field where a couple of longshots could clog the trifecta, this runner gives you a sensible anchor at a fair price.

Our three free races today — the Starter Optional Claiming opener, the Claiming sprint in Race 2, and the Stakes feature in Race 3 — give you a solid cross-section of what Lone Star is serving up this afternoon. La Cholula kicks things off as our top pick in Race 1 at 5/2 morning line, with a TrackWiz rating of 87.81 that puts her ahead of the field in a spot that suits her well. In Race 2, Runaway Prize Dash comes in at 2/1 with an 88.54 rating — one of the stronger numbers on the card — in a 300-yard Claiming sprint where early explosiveness is everything.

The Stakes race in Race 3 is the marquee free look of the day. Dw Showin D Off matches that same 88.54 rating at a 2/1 morning line, and in a stakes spot over 330 yards, that consistency matters. The heat isn't going anywhere, and all three of these free picks share a common thread: they're horses that figure to be on or near the lead from the gate — which, on a day like today at Lone Star, is exactly where you want to be.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

9:23 PM EDT

Maiden · 330 yd · Dirt

A wide-open maiden field at 330 yards where every horse is still looking for that first career win — two horses stand meaningfully above the rest on TrackWiz ratings, but in maiden sprints, anything can happen off the gate.

win5Mondays BestML 2/1

Mondays Best (No. 5) leads this maiden field with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating and draws the 2/1 morning line for trainer Marc E. Jungers. Luis L. Vivanco gets the call — and notably, he also rides Texan Moon (No. 12) in this same race, though our analysis puts Mondays Best clearly on top. In a maiden sprint where raw ability often shows up cleanly, that rating advantage is the most reliable signal we have.

place7Remember Me FavoriteML 4/1

Remember Me Favorite (No. 7) is the legitimate threat to upset at 4/1 on the morning line, posting an 84.32 TrackWiz rating — just four and a half points behind the top pick. Trainer Francisco Campos, Jr. keeps the program simple, and Claudio Ponce Aguilar takes the mount. If Mondays Best has any gate trouble, this one has the raw numbers to step in and steal it.

show2High VizabilitiML 7/2

High Vizabiliti (No. 2) sits third on our ratings at 50.48 and offers some value at 7/2 on the morning line for trainer Gilberto Gonzalez. Jose R. Herbert rides, and the horse draws a manageable middle post in what is a wide field. In maiden races the ratings gap between the top two and the rest is real, but High Vizabiliti is the most logical exotics play among the remaining runners.

Race 5

9:49 PM EDT

Claiming · 250 yd · Dirt

An intriguing 250-yard Claiming dash where the morning-line and ratings leader is also a proven winner — but a massive longshot on our place pick makes this one of the more exotic-friendly cards of the night.

win5Is Fly Hawkeye FlyML 3/1

Is Fly Hawkeye Fly (No. 5) leads our ratings at 73.94 and comes in as the clear top pick for trainer Harvey Baeza. What really jumps out is that 40% career win rate — the best in the field by a significant margin and a number that screams class at this claiming level. Victor Manuel Urieta, Jr. handles the mount and has been all over this card, but at 3/1 this is a horse the data strongly supports as the win selection.

place2Lota More ThingsML 15/1

Lota More Things (No. 2) is the sneaky value play here at 15/1 on the morning line — a price that looks wildly undervalued given the 69.58 TrackWiz rating, which is second-best in this field. Trainer Isidro Mancillas-Lopez sends out a horse with a 10% career win rate, which is honest if unspectacular, but the raw rating says this runner belongs. Alejandro Landeros Zuniga gets the call, and if the price holds anywhere near 15/1, this is one of the better place values on the card.

show10KleyopatraML 7/2

Kleyopatra (No. 10) brings a 28% career win rate into this spot — tied for the second-highest in the field — paired with a solid 61.85 TrackWiz rating. Trainer Joseph D. Manucy puts Raul Ramirez, Jr. in the irons, and at 7/2 morning line this is a horse the betting market clearly respects. Given that win percentage, Kleyopatra is a natural inclusion on the show ticket and in any trifecta coverage.

Race 6

10:15 PM EDT

Allowance · 250 yd · Dirt

A deep 12-horse Allowance sprint at 250 yards features a dominant morning-line favorite who also paces the field on our ratings — the real intrigue is finding live underlays in the place and show slots.

win5Soaring Lark 123ML 7/5

Soaring Lark 123 (No. 5) is the standout of this race and arguably one of the strongest favorites on tonight's card, posting an 89.42 TrackWiz rating — the highest in the field — while going off at 7/5 on the morning line. Trainer Noe R. Sanchez sends this horse out with a 33% career win rate, giving you both quality and consistency. Arturo Alvarez has the mount, and in a straight 250-yard sprint there's little room for the field to take advantage of any scenario — this one just needs to break clean.

place11This Is MarshallML 6/1

This Is Marshall (No. 11) is our value underneath at 6/1, backed by an 80.40 TrackWiz rating — a strong second-best in the field — and a 20% career win rate in allowance company. Trainer Winston Lewis sends out a runner who looks like it was priced to run second by the morning-line maker, and Victor Manuel Urieta, Jr. is one of the more active jockeys on this card. In a race where the favorite will draw most of the money, 6/1 on this horse feels like a generous price.

show7American HoniML 7/2

American Honi (No. 7) fits nicely as the show selection at 7/2 for trainer Alfred A. Aparicio, carrying a 69.05 TrackWiz rating and a solid 20% career win rate. H. Javier Hernandez gets the call and has handled plenty of short sprints here. With the top two picks holding a significant rating edge, American Honi is the most logical third option in trifecta construction.

Race 7

10:41 PM EDT

Allowance · 440 yd · Dirt

The 440-yard Allowance stretch is the longest race of the night and sets up as a fascinating battle between two closely rated horses at very different prices — a genuine upset case exists here for anyone willing to look past the chalk.

win4Fast Loving AjML 5/1

Fast Loving Aj (No. 4) tops our TrackWiz ratings at 75.51 and goes off at 5/1 on the morning line — the best combination of rating and price in this race for trainer Alvin Lee Turner. An 18% career win rate is solid in allowance company, and the 440-yard distance should suit a horse that needs a little room to find stride after the break. H. Javier Hernandez takes the mount and brings plenty of experience at this oval.

place9Dr Urban CowboyML 8/5

Dr Urban Cowboy (No. 9) is the co-morning-line favorite at 8/5 with a 74.28 TrackWiz rating and a 25% career win rate — numbers that actually make a case for this horse to win outright. Trainer Kash Reed keeps things simple and Juan Pulido has the call. The reason we slot Dr Urban Cowboy here rather than on top is that Fast Loving Aj's rating edge, though slim, is meaningful at the 440-yard distance — but this is essentially a one-two punch and either could land first.

show8Fiona Is ToxicML 9/5

Fiona Is Toxic (No. 8) rounds out the top three at 9/5 on the morning line for trainer Leonel Hernandez, posting a 62.83 TrackWiz rating and a 15% career win rate. Adrian X. Morales rides, and at the longest distance on the card tonight, this horse's profile suggests a steady, reliable type rather than a blowout winner. Solid exotics inclusion, especially in trifectas where the top two favorites can flip-flop.

Race 8

11:07 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 220 yd · Dirt

Closing out the card is a 12-horse Maiden Claiming sprint at the short 220-yard distance — every horse in here is still winless, but two runners stand well above the rest on our ratings and figure to fight it out at the wire.

win11Handdelivered FamousML 7/2

Handdelivered Famous (No. 11) leads this maiden field with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating and offers 7/2 morning-line value — notable because it's actually priced longer than the second-rated horse in the field. Trainer Marla Dayana Vargas puts Rosendo E. Pina Garcia in the irons, and at 220 yards this race is over before most bettors blink. In maiden sprints at this distance, raw ability almost always surfaces quickly, and Handdelivered Famous has the highest rating in the race.

place12ChenchaML 2/1

Chencha (No. 12) is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 with an 83.48 TrackWiz rating — a hair below Handdelivered Famous but well clear of the rest of the field. Trainer Jorge E. Rubio sends this horse out with Luis L. Vivanco aboard, making it a short-price place option. In a maiden race with this much separation at the top, the two-horse top involves Handdelivered Famous and Chencha in some order — the exacta in both combinations is the play.

show3Mighty Eye AmML 5/2

Mighty Eye Am (No. 3) checks in third on our ratings at 74.31 with a 5/2 morning-line price for trainer Arnold Lewis. Oliver E. Martinez gets the mount and the three hole is a clean breaking post at 220 yards. With a 13-point gap between Mighty Eye Am and the fourth-rated horse in the field, this one is a natural show anchor and a solid third leg in any exotics you're building around the top pair.

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Lone Star is cooking today — literally and figuratively. The heat is on, the dirt is fast, and we've got strong opinions from the first gate to the last. Dw Showin D Off in the Stakes, Runaway Prize Dash in Race 2, and La Cholula in the opener are your free best bets to get the day started right. For the full eight-race card — pace breakdowns, exotic tickets, and every angle our model uncovered — TrackWiz Premium has you covered. Good luck out there.

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