Lone Star Picks & Predictions — June 28, 2026

KNOCK KNOCK JOKE comes in at 9/2 on the morning line with a 64.95 rating that slots in nicely as the second-best independent horse in this race. Trainer Dick Cappellucci has a 17% career win rate here with this horse, and Alfredo J. Juarez Jr. is a reliable hand in these conditions. With an average speed figure of 55, this one should be close enough late to collect a place check.

FINAL STORM checks in at 4/1 with a 64.66 rating, essentially a dead heat with Knock Knock Joke for the third-best slot in the field. What sets Final Storm apart as a show play is the trainer angle — Justin R. Evans is doubling up in this race, and running two horses in an allowance suggests confidence in the conditions. At 4/1, there's real value in using this horse underneath in exactas and trifectas.

BATTLE STRIKE draws the rail with a 72.81 rating, second-best in the race, and brings a 16% career win rate to a one-mile trip. Trainer Dick Cappellucci has Schifty's Haloid also entered, but Floyd Wethey Jr. gets the call on Battle Strike — the better-positioned horse of the two. At 5/2, this one looks like a solid underneath play in exactas with Jolly Samurai.

DARYL'S BOLT is the third-rated horse at 62.54 with Geovanni Franco up for trainer Robertino Diodoro, and this barn knows how to place horses to hit the board. The 8/1 morning line makes this a value show play — the rating gap between Daryl's Bolt and the next tier (Special Moment at 40.62) is wide enough to suggest a logical top-three finish is within reach. An average speed figure of 52 is the lowest of the projected contenders, so this one likely needs some pace help to make the show spot.

FAIR HOPE is the natural backup at 3/1 with an 80.05 rating, and trainer Scott E. Young pairs her with Floyd Wethey Jr. — the barn's go-to jockey based on this card. With an average speed figure of 54, she's the fastest horse on paper in this field, which could set up an interesting pace dynamic on a short turf sprint where early position matters. Young runs She's Candified in this same race, but the morning line and the rating both point clearly to Fair Hope as the barn's best shot.

ZORRITOS DASH offers a bit of value at 7/2 with a 68.07 rating that ranks her third in the field — solidly clear of the bottom half. Mario Fuentes rides for trainer Stephanie Herreros, and her average speed of 53 puts her in the middle of the contending group. On a short turf sprint where traffic and position off the break can be decisive, having this one in your trifecta underneath at a fair price is a sound exotics strategy.

CLOSING SPEAKER is a standout value angle here — a 50% career win rate is extraordinary and dwarfs anything else in this field. The 87.2 TrackWiz rating confirms she belongs right with the favorite, and Jose L. Alvarez aboard for trainer W. Bret Calhoun is a strong combination in Texas. At 5/2, she's not a big price, but a horse that wins half her career starts in an allowance company deserves to be on your ticket.

AVALING checks in at 7/2 with a 66.01 rating for trainer Jerenesto Torrez and Alfredo J. Juarez Jr. The 2% career win rate is admittedly low, but in a field that drops sharply after the top two, this horse's rating puts her clearly third-best on paper. An average speed figure of 54 matches the top horses in the field, and at 7/2 she offers reasonable trifecta value if the top pair runs as expected.

POLLITO TITO is the second choice at 8/5 on the morning line — curiously shorter than the top-rated horse — with a 70.48 TrackWiz score for the Steven M. Asmussen barn. Erik Asmussen rides, and this trainer/jockey combo is always worth respecting at Lone Star. The 13% career win rate doesn't scream dominant, but in a Claiming sprint this horse's profile fits the conditions and should be competitive for the runner-up spot.

OKLAHOMA FLAME brings a 65.03 rating and the best career win percentage among the non-top-two horses at 20%. Trainer Jayde J. Gelner runs Midnight Humor in this race as well, but Rene Diaz takes the call on Oklahoma Flame — a clear signal of the barn's preference. An average speed figure of 56 is the highest in the entire field, which suggests this horse has the raw foot to be competitive and threatens to outrun a 6/1 morning line.

BLACK MESA draws the 3-hole for trainer Austin Gustafson with Iram Vargas Diego up and checks in with the second-best TrackWiz rating in the field at 53.33. Like several horses in this race, there's no speed figure on file, which underlines that this is an open and speculative event. At 5/1, Black Mesa offers the kind of place value that makes sense when you're betting a maiden field with limited data — third-rated at a double-digit price would be better, but 5/1 still has merit underneath.

MANY PESOS is trained by Robertino Diodoro, who also runs Jactani in this race, but Geovanni Franco gets the call on Many Pesos — suggesting this is the barn's primary runner. The 51.67 TrackWiz rating slots in comfortably among the contenders, and Diodoro is a sharp enough conditioner to have these horses ready. At 6/1 with no speed figure to worry about from anyone else, this is a reasonable show-ticket inclusion in trifecta plays.

LADY OF THE NILE is the third-highest rated horse at 70.08 and brings a 25% career win rate to a 7.5-furlong turf allowance. Jose L. Alvarez rides for trainer W. Bret Calhoun, who also sends out Lit Up in this race, but Alvarez on Lady of the Nile is clearly the barn's top play. At 7/2 she's not a screaming price, but connecting her with Penny Powers in the exacta could pay nicely if the public overlooks the true top horse.

COMPETITIVE THREAT rates third in the field at 64.71 and goes for Robertino Diodoro with Geovanni Franco aboard — a capable tandem in turf routing conditions. The 6% career win rate is modest, but in a seven and a half furlong turf race where closers get a chance to pick up pieces, Competitive Threat's speed figure of 54 puts this horse right in the mix. At 3/1 as the public's third choice, there's some value in using this horse to fill out exotics.

MINNIE'S PEARLS draws a legitimate profile at 5/2 on the morning line with a 57.5 TrackWiz rating and the field's top average speed figure at 55. Floyd Wethey Jr. rides for trainer Francisco Bravo in what shapes up as a late-evening sprint with limited form lines. At 5/2 she'll likely be heavily supported, but the speed advantage on paper justifies inclusion underneath Kelbela in exacta plays.

BURNT ORANGE represents the Steven M. Asmussen barn, who sends Erik Asmussen up at 7/2 on the morning line. The 55.83 TrackWiz rating checks in third-best in the field and this is another first-time or lightly raced starter that benefits from the Asmussen training pipeline. Without an available speed figure, handicapping this one is speculative, but the barn's reputation and the competitive rating make Burnt Orange a reasonable show contender in a maiden sprint where the field is genuinely unsettled.