Daily Picks

Lone Star Picks & Predictions — June 28, 2026

Sunday, June 28, 202610 racesLone Star

It's a scorcher at Lone Star Park today — clear skies and a brutal 95°F mean the dirt is going to be lightning-fast and the turf is going to be demanding on any horse that hasn't trained in the heat. Ten races are on the card, spanning dirt sprints, a pair of turf routes, and everything in between. If you're coming to the window today, come prepared.

The card is loaded with allowance and maiden action, which means we're often dealing with limited form to parse — exactly the kind of card where sharp handicapping pays off. TrackWiz analysis has identified some compelling spots across all levels, from the early maiden sprints to a juicy 8/1 longshot angle on the turf in Race 9 that subscribers will want to see before post time.

Best Bets

Race 1

6:35 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Three horses are bunched at the top of the TrackWiz ratings in this 6-furlong AOC opener, setting up a legitimate battle between a Thunder Johnson pair and the Nicole Ruggeri barn.

win6MASQUERADESOBIAML 7/2

MASQUERADESOBIA tops the TrackWiz ratings at 86.35 and carries a strong 28% career win rate — one of the highest in this field. Trainer Thunder Johnson sends this one out with Mario Fuentes in the irons, a pairing worth tracking. That combination of a high rating and a proven win percentage at nearly one-in-three makes this the most complete profile in the race at a morning line of 7/2.

place2WMA SMOKE SIGNALML 2/1

WMA SMOKE SIGNAL is the morning line co-favorite at 2/1 and posts a solid TrackWiz rating of 82.25. Trainer Nicole Ruggeri doubles up in this race, and the barn's horses clearly fit the conditions. Jose L. Alvarez takes the mount, and while the career win rate sits at 14%, this horse looks well-placed to hit the board at a short price.

show3AA SWEET VICTORYML 5/2

AA SWEET VICTORY is the most accomplished winner in the field by career win percentage at 30%, making her a legitimate exotics anchor at 5/2. Also trained by Nicole Ruggeri, she's the barn's second string on the morning line but not to be ignored — horses with a 30% win rate in their careers tend to find their way into the money consistently. Luis A. Huaman gets the call and her average speed figure of 49 leads the entire field.

Race 2

7:02 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden special weight on the dirt at 5.5 furlongs with all first-time or winless runners, but RB MADE YOU LOOK towers over the field in the ratings and figures to attract heavy early support.

win4RB MADE YOU LOOKML 8/5

RB MADE YOU LOOK draws the 4-hole and tops the TrackWiz field with an 89.12 rating — the highest mark in the race by a significant margin. Jose L. Alvarez takes the mount for trainer Jerenesto Torrez, a barn that also has BIG SANDY AA in the field, suggesting they're serious about winning this one with their top horse. At 8/5 on the morning line, the crowd will likely be on this one early, and the rating backs up the favoritism.

place1WMA BABY DOLLML 2/1

WMA BABY DOLL is the second-best rated horse in the field at 76.86 and draws the rail for trainer Rita Deleon with Thiago Canuto up. The gap between her rating and the rest of the field (outside the top two) is substantial, making her a natural place contender at 2/1. She matches the favorite's average speed figure at 48, suggesting she won't be far off the pace.

show2UPTOWN TRUMPTHESSML 8/1

UPTOWN TRUMPTHESS sits at 8/1 on the morning line with a 48.33 TrackWiz rating, third-best in a field that drops off quickly after the top two. Trainer Carlos A. Padilla also runs UPTOWN TOP SHELF in this race, but Mario Fuentes takes the mount here — the higher-profile rider of the two Padilla horses — which is a subtle but meaningful signal. At 8/1, this one offers show-ticket value in what could be a pace-influenced sprint.

Race 3

7:29 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Perfect Magic brings a dominant TrackWiz rating into this 6-furlong AOC, but the 9/5 morning line on Raise the Bar and a competitive mid-field cluster make the pace scenario genuinely interesting.

win4Perfect MagicML 8/5

PERFECT MAGIC is the class of the field on our ratings at 89.12 — a full 24 points clear of the next group. Trainer Steven M. Asmussen puts son Erik in the irons, a family combo that rolls at Lone Star, and the horse's average speed figure of 56 ties for the field's best. At 8/5, this is the horse to beat, and the numbers support the favoritism convincingly.

place5Knock Knock JokeML 9/2

KNOCK KNOCK JOKE comes in at 9/2 on the morning line with a 64.95 rating that slots in nicely as the second-best independent horse in this race. Trainer Dick Cappellucci has a 17% career win rate here with this horse, and Alfredo J. Juarez Jr. is a reliable hand in these conditions. With an average speed figure of 55, this one should be close enough late to collect a place check.

show3Final StormML 4/1

FINAL STORM checks in at 4/1 with a 64.66 rating, essentially a dead heat with Knock Knock Joke for the third-best slot in the field. What sets Final Storm apart as a show play is the trainer angle — Justin R. Evans is doubling up in this race, and running two horses in an allowance suggests confidence in the conditions. At 4/1, there's real value in using this horse underneath in exactas and trifectas.

The first three races on today's card are unlocked for every TrackWiz reader, and they tell an interesting story. On a hot, fast Lone Star dirt strip, pace scenarios are going to be key — expect early speed to be rewarded in sprint distances, and keep a close eye on horses that have shown the ability to rate and accelerate late in the oppressive Texas heat. MASQUERADESOBIA opens the card in Race 1 at a workable 7/2 morning line with a TrackWiz rating of 86 — solid enough to warrant top-pick status in an Allowance Optional Claiming sprint. Race 2 brings in RB MADE YOU LOOK as the morning-line favorite in maiden company, posting our highest rating of the free races at 89. Then Perfect Magic matches that same 89 rating in Race 3, another six-furlong dirt allowance — making Races 2 and 3 back-to-back plays worth building a mini-sequence around.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

7:56 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

The morning line favorite Bender is actually the third-rated horse in TrackWiz's numbers for this mile claiming race, creating a prime overlay opportunity with Jolly Samurai.

win2Jolly SamuraiML 5/1

JOLLY SAMURAI carries the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 84.17 despite going off at 5/1 on the morning line — that's a meaningful gap versus the 8/5 morning line on Bender, who rates considerably lower at 52.38. The 25% career win rate is the best in the field and speaks to a horse that knows how to close out a race. Trainer Danny Pish and jockey Rene Diaz combine for a live-looking entry at a price that represents genuine value.

place1Battle StrikeML 5/2

BATTLE STRIKE draws the rail with a 72.81 rating, second-best in the race, and brings a 16% career win rate to a one-mile trip. Trainer Dick Cappellucci has Schifty's Haloid also entered, but Floyd Wethey Jr. gets the call on Battle Strike — the better-positioned horse of the two. At 5/2, this one looks like a solid underneath play in exactas with Jolly Samurai.

show6Daryl's BoltML 8/1

DARYL'S BOLT is the third-rated horse at 62.54 with Geovanni Franco up for trainer Robertino Diodoro, and this barn knows how to place horses to hit the board. The 8/1 morning line makes this a value show play — the rating gap between Daryl's Bolt and the next tier (Special Moment at 40.62) is wide enough to suggest a logical top-three finish is within reach. An average speed figure of 52 is the lowest of the projected contenders, so this one likely needs some pace help to make the show spot.

Race 5

8:23 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

Shifting to the turf for a 5-furlong maiden claiming event, Captain Blood and Fair Hope dominate the TrackWiz ratings with a massive gap over the rest of this maiden field.

win1Captain BloodML 2/1

CAPTAIN BLOOD tops the turf field with an 83.39 TrackWiz rating and draws the rail for trainer Justin R. Evans with David Cabrera in the irons. At 2/1 on the morning line, this one is rightfully the favorite — the rating separation between Captain Blood and the mid-pack horses is significant. Evans is a sharp conditioner who knows how to spot a horse, and getting Cabrera aboard adds another positive layer to this play.

place8Fair HopeML 3/1

FAIR HOPE is the natural backup at 3/1 with an 80.05 rating, and trainer Scott E. Young pairs her with Floyd Wethey Jr. — the barn's go-to jockey based on this card. With an average speed figure of 54, she's the fastest horse on paper in this field, which could set up an interesting pace dynamic on a short turf sprint where early position matters. Young runs She's Candified in this same race, but the morning line and the rating both point clearly to Fair Hope as the barn's best shot.

show3Zorritos DashML 7/2

ZORRITOS DASH offers a bit of value at 7/2 with a 68.07 rating that ranks her third in the field — solidly clear of the bottom half. Mario Fuentes rides for trainer Stephanie Herreros, and her average speed of 53 puts her in the middle of the contending group. On a short turf sprint where traffic and position off the break can be decisive, having this one in your trifecta underneath at a fair price is a sound exotics strategy.

Race 6

8:50 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

A razor-thin rating battle at the top of this 6-furlong allowance between Texas Speed Queen and Closing Speaker — just 1.6 points separate them — sets up one of the tightest matchups on the card.

win3Texas Speed QueenML 9/5

TEXAS SPEED QUEEN leads the field with an 88.83 TrackWiz rating and a 22% career win rate that reflects a consistent performer. Trainer J.R. Caldwell sends her out with Rene Diaz, and the morning line of 9/5 acknowledges her as the public's top selection. With an average speed figure of 54 and the best overall number in the race, she's the rightful top pick in a competitive allowance field.

place6Closing SpeakerML 5/2

CLOSING SPEAKER is a standout value angle here — a 50% career win rate is extraordinary and dwarfs anything else in this field. The 87.2 TrackWiz rating confirms she belongs right with the favorite, and Jose L. Alvarez aboard for trainer W. Bret Calhoun is a strong combination in Texas. At 5/2, she's not a big price, but a horse that wins half her career starts in an allowance company deserves to be on your ticket.

show2AvalingML 7/2

AVALING checks in at 7/2 with a 66.01 rating for trainer Jerenesto Torrez and Alfredo J. Juarez Jr. The 2% career win rate is admittedly low, but in a field that drops sharply after the top two, this horse's rating puts her clearly third-best on paper. An average speed figure of 54 matches the top horses in the field, and at 7/2 she offers reasonable trifecta value if the top pair runs as expected.

Race 7

9:17 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Six Iron's TrackWiz rating towers over the competition in this 5.5-furlong claiming sprint, but the short 2/1 morning line means the real intrigue is finding value underneath in a field with a few live pace horses.

win8Six IronML 2/1

SIX IRON arrives with the field's top rating at 88.54 and draws Stewart Elliott, one of the steadier hands on the Lone Star circuit. Trainer Mindy J. Willis presents a horse with a 16% career win rate in what looks like a comfortable class spot. That rating separates this horse from the field by nearly 18 points over the nearest challenger, making it tough to make a case against Six Iron in the win column.

place6Pollito TitoML 8/5

POLLITO TITO is the second choice at 8/5 on the morning line — curiously shorter than the top-rated horse — with a 70.48 TrackWiz score for the Steven M. Asmussen barn. Erik Asmussen rides, and this trainer/jockey combo is always worth respecting at Lone Star. The 13% career win rate doesn't scream dominant, but in a Claiming sprint this horse's profile fits the conditions and should be competitive for the runner-up spot.

show1Oklahoma FlameML 6/1

OKLAHOMA FLAME brings a 65.03 rating and the best career win percentage among the non-top-two horses at 20%. Trainer Jayde J. Gelner runs Midnight Humor in this race as well, but Rene Diaz takes the call on Oklahoma Flame — a clear signal of the barn's preference. An average speed figure of 56 is the highest in the entire field, which suggests this horse has the raw foot to be competitive and threatens to outrun a 6/1 morning line.

Race 8

9:44 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Dirt

An unusually wide-open maiden special weight at 5 furlongs where several horses have no available speed figure, making the TrackWiz ratings the primary separator in a ten-horse field full of unknowns.

win10Personality PlusML 8/5

PERSONALITY PLUS is trained by Steven M. Asmussen, one of the most successful conditioners in the country, and gets Stewart Elliott up — a strong combination in any maiden race. The 8/5 morning line reflects significant public confidence, and the 59.0 TrackWiz rating leads the field. With no prior speed figure on record, this is clearly a first-time starter the barn thinks highly of, and Asmussen's record with debut runners demands respect.

place3Black MesaML 5/1

BLACK MESA draws the 3-hole for trainer Austin Gustafson with Iram Vargas Diego up and checks in with the second-best TrackWiz rating in the field at 53.33. Like several horses in this race, there's no speed figure on file, which underlines that this is an open and speculative event. At 5/1, Black Mesa offers the kind of place value that makes sense when you're betting a maiden field with limited data — third-rated at a double-digit price would be better, but 5/1 still has merit underneath.

show5Many PesosML 6/1

MANY PESOS is trained by Robertino Diodoro, who also runs Jactani in this race, but Geovanni Franco gets the call on Many Pesos — suggesting this is the barn's primary runner. The 51.67 TrackWiz rating slots in comfortably among the contenders, and Diodoro is a sharp enough conditioner to have these horses ready. At 6/1 with no speed figure to worry about from anyone else, this is a reasonable show-ticket inclusion in trifecta plays.

Race 9

10:11 PM EDT

Allowance · 7 1/2 fur · Turf

The turf closer on the card features a genuine longshot overlay at the top of the TrackWiz ratings — Penny Powers rates best at 8/1 while shorter-priced horses sit well below her in the numbers.

win5Penny PowersML 8/1

PENNY POWERS is the definition of a value play — she's the top-rated horse in the field at 79.79, yet goes off at 8/1 on the morning line. A 33% career win rate is by far the best in this nine-horse allowance field and signals a horse that has been competitive at every level. Trainer Scott E. Young puts Floyd Wethey Jr. in the irons, and with an average speed figure of 55 — tops in the field — this is one of the better overlay opportunities on the entire card.

place9Lady of the NileML 7/2

LADY OF THE NILE is the third-highest rated horse at 70.08 and brings a 25% career win rate to a 7.5-furlong turf allowance. Jose L. Alvarez rides for trainer W. Bret Calhoun, who also sends out Lit Up in this race, but Alvarez on Lady of the Nile is clearly the barn's top play. At 7/2 she's not a screaming price, but connecting her with Penny Powers in the exacta could pay nicely if the public overlooks the true top horse.

show3Competitive ThreatML 3/1

COMPETITIVE THREAT rates third in the field at 64.71 and goes for Robertino Diodoro with Geovanni Franco aboard — a capable tandem in turf routing conditions. The 6% career win rate is modest, but in a seven and a half furlong turf race where closers get a chance to pick up pieces, Competitive Threat's speed figure of 54 puts this horse right in the mix. At 3/1 as the public's third choice, there's some value in using this horse to fill out exotics.

Race 10

10:38 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

The nightcap is a 6.5-furlong maiden special weight on the dirt where the top of the TrackWiz ratings tells an interesting story — the 10/1 morning line horse Kelbela leads the field while shorter-priced runners rate below her.

win1KelbelaML 10/1

KELBELA is the top-rated horse in the field at 59.55 and draws Alfredo J. Juarez Jr. for trainer Wade Rarick. The morning line of 10/1 is a potential overlay if the rating holds true — this is precisely the kind of spot where TrackWiz analysis can identify value before the public weighs in. An average speed figure of 54 is competitive in this field, and fading a shorter-priced horse in favor of a maiden that rates best on our numbers is a classic late-race value play.

place5Minnie's PearlsML 5/2

MINNIE'S PEARLS draws a legitimate profile at 5/2 on the morning line with a 57.5 TrackWiz rating and the field's top average speed figure at 55. Floyd Wethey Jr. rides for trainer Francisco Bravo in what shapes up as a late-evening sprint with limited form lines. At 5/2 she'll likely be heavily supported, but the speed advantage on paper justifies inclusion underneath Kelbela in exacta plays.

show6Burnt OrangeML 7/2

BURNT ORANGE represents the Steven M. Asmussen barn, who sends Erik Asmussen up at 7/2 on the morning line. The 55.83 TrackWiz rating checks in third-best in the field and this is another first-time or lightly raced starter that benefits from the Asmussen training pipeline. Without an available speed figure, handicapping this one is speculative, but the barn's reputation and the competitive rating make Burnt Orange a reasonable show contender in a maiden sprint where the field is genuinely unsettled.

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Bottom line: Lone Star is cooking today — literally and figuratively. MASQUERADESOBIA, RB MADE YOU LOOK, and Perfect Magic are your three free best bets to start the afternoon. If you want the full picture — pace projections, exotic tickets, and that 8/1 Penny Powers angle on the turf — subscribers have everything waiting for them inside TrackWiz. Good luck at the windows, and let's cash some tickets.

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