Lone Star Picks & Predictions — June 27, 2026

Bella's Girl is the morning-line favorite at 5/2 with an 83.56 rating and a 40% career win percentage — that win rate stands out in any field. Trainer Austin Gustafson sends her out with Iram Vargas Diego aboard, and a horse winning four of every ten career starts commands respect regardless of class. She's a strong place play even if Quixx has the slight rating edge.

Franny at 6/1 is the clear third wheel here with a 63.57 rating — the biggest gap back to the rest of the field. Jose Alvarez rides for trainer Jose Gonzalez Jr., and her 18% career win rate keeps her honest. At 6/1 she represents solid show value and a reasonable trifecta option if the top two run as expected.

Innova is the 2/1 morning-line choice despite rating slightly below Here Comes Braylon — the market may be using recent form or workout data we're factoring against the overall rating. His 23% career win percentage matches Gavel but he carries an average speed figure of 57, tied for the field's best. Geovanni Franco is a capable pilot for trainer Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez, and Innova is a confident place selection.

Trust Daddy at 3/1 for the powerful Steven Asmussen barn is a horse you don't want to leave out of the exotics. His 78.9 rating puts him in a near dead-heat with Competitive Idea (78.77) and Innova (79), and Erik Asmussen keeps the booking in-house. An average speed figure of 57 — tied for tops in the field — suggests he has the raw numbers to hit the board.

Outlaw Empire at 5/2 rates second in the field at 65.85 and is the market's clear second choice. Jose Alvarez rides for the prolific W. Bret Calhoun barn, and Calhoun runners consistently run to their number. The 11% career win rate isn't flashy, but paired with an average speed of 54 in a field where most are at 52-54, he profiles as a solid place horse.

Grind Jim at 8/1 rates third in the field at 58.36 and represents a genuine value angle in the show spot and trifecta coverage. Trainer Jaime Castellanos keeps him at a familiar level, and his 6% career win rate — while low — is partially offset by a 53 average speed that keeps him competitive. At those morning-line odds, he's worth the throw in multi-race wagers.

Mister Omaha at 9/2 is the wild-card play — a 56% career win percentage is jaw-dropping in any stakes field, and trainer Joe Offolter has him primed. His TrackWiz rating of 67.65 is a touch below the top contenders, but that win rate says this horse knows how to finish in front. Luis Quinonez rides, and at nearly 5/1, the value case for him underneath is real.

Gigante is the morning-line second choice at 5/2 and rates 64.68 — third in the field. The 34% career win percentage supports the idea that he hits the board regularly, and the Steven Asmussen-Erik Asmussen combination on a stakes turf horse is always worth noting. He's a reliable show selection and exotics anchor even if his rating doesn't scream top pick.

Forty Twenty is only slightly behind at 85.5 and opens as the morning-line favorite at 8/5 — evidence the market sees this differently than our ratings. Trainer Robertino Diodoro doubles up in this race with Spectacle as well, and Geovanni Franco gets the prized mount on the better-rated of the two. A 20% career win rate is workmanlike for an allowance horse, and at nearly even money, he's a confident place inclusion.

Promissione at 6/1 for trainer Danny Pish rates third in the field at 66.03 — a notable step back from the top two, but a comfortable margin over the rest. Weston Hamilton takes the ride, and while the 5% career win percentage is a concern, the rating places him ahead of everyone else in the field outside the top pair. At 6/1 he's worth considering as a show hedge in trifecta combinations.

Initialize rates second in the field at 82.74 and opens at 4/1 with Stewart Elliott aboard for the Asmussen barn. A 45% career win percentage is one of the strongest marks in the field, and at 5 furlongs on the turf, a horse with that win rate and a 57 average speed figure can sit just off the pace and pounce. He's a strong place play and trifecta anchor.

Usually Wrong is the 7/5 morning-line choice and while the TrackWiz rating of 75.57 ranks third, the 64% career win percentage is the highest figure on today's entire card among horses with established records. Diodoro-Franco is a potent combo and the market clearly loves this horse. At near-even money, there's limited show value on price alone — but in exotics, leaving him out is a risk given that win rate.

Metric Man at 6/1 is a genuine value play with an 81.99 rating — second best in the field and available at a price the market may be underestimating. Floyd Wethey Jr. rides for trainer Francisco Bravo, and the 55 average speed figure is the best in the field. For a maiden event, that raw speed edge matters, and at 6/1 he's a prime place bet.

Wise Decision is the 5/2 morning-line choice for the powerful Steven Asmussen barn with Stewart Elliott riding. His 74.24 rating sits third in the field, and the Asmussen operation is always dangerous in maiden events with well-prepared first-timers or lightly-raced horses. At 5/2, the show price won't be rich, but he belongs in any serious exotic play.

Banterra at 9/2 rates second in the field at 78.16 for the Steven Asmussen barn with Erik Asmussen aboard. A 22% career win percentage and a 57 average speed figure are both solid for turf sprint company. The Asmussen family sends multiple horses into this race and Banterra appears to be their strongest contender on the ratings — a reliable place selection at a fair price.

Sassi Strutter is the morning-line favorite at 8/5 and posts a 41% career win percentage — a legitimate hit rate for any level. Trainer Lee Thomas has her sharp, and Thomas Pompell rides. The TrackWiz rating of 70.77 is third in the field, which is why she slots as the show pick rather than the top choice, but at near-even money she's nearly guaranteed to surface somewhere in the order.

Volden at 5/1 rates second in the field at 53.33 with an average speed figure of 54 — one of the few in this field to post any figure at all. Trainer Danny Pish and Lane Luzzi team up, and Pish has multiple horses in tonight's card with solid results. At 5/1, Volden represents genuine place value in a maiden field where identifying reliable speed is the entire challenge.

Sorcha at 6/1 for Todd Fincher rates third in the field at 51.67 with Alfredo Juarez Jr. getting the mount. Fincher is a quality trainer who doesn't waste entries, and Juarez is one of the meet's most active riders. With no speed figure published — common in maiden races — you're betting on connections and readiness, and this barn earns that trust at 6/1.

Tizawiz at 5/1 rates second in the field at 81.72 and posts an impressive 41% career win percentage for trainer W. Bret Calhoun. DeShawn Parker gets the mount, and Calhoun's turf runners are consistently well-prepared. This is a horse with a deep résumé of success and a rating that clearly separates her from most of this field — a confident place pick at a fair price.

Ninth Island at 8/1 rates third in the field at 68.54 with a 33% career win percentage — strong numbers for a horse available at 8/1. Jose Alvarez rides for W. Bret Calhoun, giving the barn a second bullet in the race alongside Tizawiz. At that price with those connections and a legitimate rating, Ninth Island is a strong show play and a welcome trifecta addition to cap the card.