Daily Picks

Lone Star Picks & Predictions — June 27, 2026

Saturday, June 27, 202612 racesLone Star

It's a hot one at Lone Star Park — literally. Grand Prairie is baking under clear skies and a punishing 95°F on Saturday, June 27, and that Texas heat is going to be a factor all afternoon. Fast, dry conditions typically favor speed horses on the front end, and with a 12-race card stacked with claiming battles, allowance spots, and four stakes events, there's plenty of action to dig into.

The card leans dirt-heavy early before shifting to the turf for the marquee races in the back half. Stakes runners take center stage in Races 6, 8, 10, and 12 — with Saline River drawing our eye in the 1 1/8-mile turf stakes and Miss Code West and Jackman's Ride setting up what looks like a fun sprint stakes sequence on the lawn. It's the kind of card where building multi-race tickets early can pay off big by the time the feature events roll around.

TrackWiz has full analysis on all 12 races. The first three are on the house — no subscription needed. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

6:35 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

A clear TrackWiz rating hierarchy sets up Race 1 nicely — High Cinco tops the field by a meaningful margin in this 6-furlong allowance, but Aggie's Creed's speed edge and the 5/1 on Texas Creed give this card some exotic juice.

win4High CincoML 5/2

High Cinco is the class of this field with a TrackWiz rating of 87.81 — a full ten points clear of the next rival. Trainer Danny Pish sends him out with Lane Luzzi in the irons, and the 5/2 morning line feels fair for a horse posting an 18% career win rate. Over 6 furlongs on the Lone Star dirt, a horse this well-rated in an allowance field should get his chance to settle and fire.

place3Texas CreedML 5/1

Texas Creed at 5/1 is a legit value play for the exotic tickets. His TrackWiz rating of 78.87 puts him solidly second in this field, and while the 7% career win percentage looks modest, that figure tells more about opportunity than pure ability at this level. DeShawn Parker gets the call for Ronnie Cravens III — a reliable combination worth including underneath.

show2Vino Texas JessML 6/1

Vino Texas Jess opens at 6/1 with a 69.47 rating and the highest average speed figure in the field at 56. Jose Alvarez riding for the well-regarded W. Bret Calhoun barn gives this one a legitimate win-or-hit profile. If pace heats up early, Vino Texas Jess could be picking up pieces late — solid show inclusion in exotics.

Race 2

7:05 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Divine Wind looks like a heavy-duty morning-line favorite in this 5½-furlong dirt claimer, but the cluster of four horses rated 71-73 creates a legitimate trifecta battle underneath that makes this race worth playing deeper.

win7Divine WindML 6/5

Divine Wind's 89.71 TrackWiz rating is the clear top mark in the field and the 6/5 morning line says the market agrees. Rene Diaz teams up with J.R. Caldwell, and even though the career win percentage sits at 11%, the rating separation here is significant — nearly 17 points above the next-best horse. In a 5½-furlong sprint on dirt, a horse with this kind of edge should be tough to beat if he breaks cleanly.

place3Easy KissML 3/1

Easy Kiss comes in at 3/1 on the morning line with a 72.55 rating — narrow best among the mid-pack cluster. The Steven Asmussen–Erik Asmussen trainer-jockey combo is one of the most potent at Lone Star, and that barn runs horses fit. A 14% career win percentage in claiming company is workmanlike, and with Divine Wind likely on or near the lead, Easy Kiss could have something to aim at late.

show2Secret VintageML 8/1

Secret Vintage at 8/1 is the show value play — a 72.29 rating nearly matches Easy Kiss and the 33% career win percentage is the best of any horse in this field. Trainer Isaiah Ortiz is low-profile but the number is hard to ignore. Alfredo Juarez Jr. rides, and at those odds in a tight mid-pack cluster, this one deserves a spot in any trifecta construction.

Race 3

7:35 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Two horses — Quixx and Bella's Girl — separate themselves from the pack in this 5½-furlong dirt claimer, setting up a potential match race with a thin margin between them and a field that struggles to keep pace on the numbers.

win5QuixxML 4/1

Quixx tops the TrackWiz ratings at 85.62 and comes in at a very playable 4/1 on the morning line. The 20% career win percentage is the best among the top contenders, and trainer J.R. Caldwell saddles him for Rene Diaz — a sharp combination at this level. If Quixx gets a clean trip in a pace scenario that sets up for closers or stalkers, this is the horse to beat.

place2Bella's GirlML 5/2

Bella's Girl is the morning-line favorite at 5/2 with an 83.56 rating and a 40% career win percentage — that win rate stands out in any field. Trainer Austin Gustafson sends her out with Iram Vargas Diego aboard, and a horse winning four of every ten career starts commands respect regardless of class. She's a strong place play even if Quixx has the slight rating edge.

show6FrannyML 6/1

Franny at 6/1 is the clear third wheel here with a 63.57 rating — the biggest gap back to the rest of the field. Jose Alvarez rides for trainer Jose Gonzalez Jr., and her 18% career win rate keeps her honest. At 6/1 she represents solid show value and a reasonable trifecta option if the top two run as expected.

The opening trio of races gives us a nice cross-section of the card's dirt sprint action. High Cinco draws our top rating in Race 1 at 5/2 on the morning line — a TrackWiz rating of 87.81 in an allowance sprint suggests genuine class for a horse at a reasonable price. In Race 2, Divine Wind is the morning-line favorite at 6/5 and posts our highest free-race rating at 89.71, which is hard to argue with in a short field claiming sprint. Race 3 offers the best value of the freebie trio — Quixx sits at 4/1 on the morning line despite an 85.62 TrackWiz rating, and in the claiming ranks at 5 1/2 furlongs, that kind of overlay is exactly what we look for.

One throughline connecting all three early races: in this heat, horses that can settle just off a contested pace — rather than burning energy on the front end — tend to have a significant edge. Keep that pace scenario in mind as you watch the early races unfold. It'll tell you a lot about how the rest of the afternoon is shaping up.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

8:05 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Race 4 is a 6-furlong dirt claimer loaded with overlapping quality — three horses clustered between 78-79 on the TrackWiz scale, and a 5/2 shot who leads the field outright, making pace and trip the critical variables tonight.

win5Here Comes BraylonML 5/2

Here Comes Braylon leads the field with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating and comes in at 5/2 — a strong number for a horse the market clearly respects. Trainer Dick Cappellucci sends Alfredo Juarez Jr. up, and Juarez is consistently one of the busiest and most productive riders at this meet. A 17% career win rate in claiming company is solid, and at 6 furlongs on the Lone Star dirt, this horse's rating edge gives him a clear path to the winner's circle.

place3InnovaML 2/1

Innova is the 2/1 morning-line choice despite rating slightly below Here Comes Braylon — the market may be using recent form or workout data we're factoring against the overall rating. His 23% career win percentage matches Gavel but he carries an average speed figure of 57, tied for the field's best. Geovanni Franco is a capable pilot for trainer Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez, and Innova is a confident place selection.

show6Trust DaddyML 3/1

Trust Daddy at 3/1 for the powerful Steven Asmussen barn is a horse you don't want to leave out of the exotics. His 78.9 rating puts him in a near dead-heat with Competitive Idea (78.77) and Innova (79), and Erik Asmussen keeps the booking in-house. An average speed figure of 57 — tied for tops in the field — suggests he has the raw numbers to hit the board.

Race 5

8:35 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The 2/1 morning-line favorite Dettori carries a surprisingly ordinary TrackWiz rating in this 6-furlong dirt claimer, creating a scenario where the TrackWiz top pick at 5/1 could be a genuine value overlay.

win7I'm a Dude ToML 5/1

I'm a Dude To leads the field with an 84.17 TrackWiz rating despite opening at 5/1 — nearly double the morning-line odds of the 2/1 favorite. Trainer Todd Fincher is one of the sharper conditioners in the Southwest, and Alfredo Juarez Jr. gets the mount. A 12% career win percentage in claiming company is modest, but the speed figure of 55 is the field's best and the rating gap over this field is meaningful at the price.

place4Outlaw EmpireML 5/2

Outlaw Empire at 5/2 rates second in the field at 65.85 and is the market's clear second choice. Jose Alvarez rides for the prolific W. Bret Calhoun barn, and Calhoun runners consistently run to their number. The 11% career win rate isn't flashy, but paired with an average speed of 54 in a field where most are at 52-54, he profiles as a solid place horse.

show1Grind JimML 8/1

Grind Jim at 8/1 rates third in the field at 58.36 and represents a genuine value angle in the show spot and trifecta coverage. Trainer Jaime Castellanos keeps him at a familiar level, and his 6% career win rate — while low — is partially offset by a 53 average speed that keeps him competitive. At those morning-line odds, he's worth the throw in multi-race wagers.

Race 6

9:05 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/8 mi · Turf

This 1⅛-mile turf stakes has a fascinating mismatch between morning-line prices and TrackWiz ratings — Willy D's is the 8/5 favorite but rates well below Saline River, who sits at 7/2 and leads the field on the numbers.

win4Saline RiverML 7/2

Saline River tops the field with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating and a 37% career win percentage — strong numbers in a stakes field on the turf. Trainer Robertino Diodoro is a proven hand on grass, and Geovanni Franco rides. At 7/2 on the morning line, Saline River represents genuine value over the heavily backed 8/5 favorite, making this one of the more compelling best-bet situations on tonight's card.

place7Mister OmahaML 9/2

Mister Omaha at 9/2 is the wild-card play — a 56% career win percentage is jaw-dropping in any stakes field, and trainer Joe Offolter has him primed. His TrackWiz rating of 67.65 is a touch below the top contenders, but that win rate says this horse knows how to finish in front. Luis Quinonez rides, and at nearly 5/1, the value case for him underneath is real.

show5GiganteML 5/2

Gigante is the morning-line second choice at 5/2 and rates 64.68 — third in the field. The 34% career win percentage supports the idea that he hits the board regularly, and the Steven Asmussen-Erik Asmussen combination on a stakes turf horse is always worth noting. He's a reliable show selection and exotics anchor even if his rating doesn't scream top pick.

Race 7

9:35 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

A tight battle between two near-equal favorites shapes Race 7 — Gun Fire (9/5) and Forty Twenty (8/5) are separated by just 3+ points on the TrackWiz scale over a one-mile dirt route, with the rest of the field largely in a different conversation.

win6Gun FireML 9/5

Gun Fire leads the field with an 88.83 TrackWiz rating and posts the field's best average speed figure at 55. Trainer Scott Young sends Floyd Wethey Jr. to ride, and while the 9% career win percentage is low, the raw speed numbers suggest a horse that runs big without always getting the outcome. In a route at one mile on the dirt, Gun Fire's edge on figures makes him the TrackWiz top selection.

place5Forty TwentyML 8/5

Forty Twenty is only slightly behind at 85.5 and opens as the morning-line favorite at 8/5 — evidence the market sees this differently than our ratings. Trainer Robertino Diodoro doubles up in this race with Spectacle as well, and Geovanni Franco gets the prized mount on the better-rated of the two. A 20% career win rate is workmanlike for an allowance horse, and at nearly even money, he's a confident place inclusion.

show1PromissioneML 6/1

Promissione at 6/1 for trainer Danny Pish rates third in the field at 66.03 — a notable step back from the top two, but a comfortable margin over the rest. Weston Hamilton takes the ride, and while the 5% career win percentage is a concern, the rating places him ahead of everyone else in the field outside the top pair. At 6/1 he's worth considering as a show hedge in trifecta combinations.

Race 8

10:05 PM EDT

Stakes · 5 fur · Turf

The 5-furlong turf stakes is a genuine puzzle — the 7/5 morning-line favorite Usually Wrong is outrated by both Jackman's Ride and Initialize on the TrackWiz scale, setting up what could be a prime overlay situation.

win3Jackman's RideML 3/1

Jackman's Ride leads all comers with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating and the field's best average speed figure at 58 — a clear raw-speed edge in a short turf sprint. Trainer J.R. Caldwell gives Rene Diaz the call, and a 36% career win percentage is elite in a stakes field. At 3/1 on the morning line, he's available at a fair price despite being the TrackWiz top horse.

place7InitializeML 4/1

Initialize rates second in the field at 82.74 and opens at 4/1 with Stewart Elliott aboard for the Asmussen barn. A 45% career win percentage is one of the strongest marks in the field, and at 5 furlongs on the turf, a horse with that win rate and a 57 average speed figure can sit just off the pace and pounce. He's a strong place play and trifecta anchor.

show1Usually WrongML 7/5

Usually Wrong is the 7/5 morning-line choice and while the TrackWiz rating of 75.57 ranks third, the 64% career win percentage is the highest figure on today's entire card among horses with established records. Diodoro-Franco is a potent combo and the market clearly loves this horse. At near-even money, there's limited show value on price alone — but in exotics, leaving him out is a risk given that win rate.

Race 9

10:35 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Maiden Special Weight at 6½ furlongs with a full field of first-time or maiden runners — Curlin's Union tops the TrackWiz ratings and offers a tantalizing value angle at 3/1 despite rating the same as last race's stakes winner on the scale.

win10Curlin's UnionML 3/1

Curlin's Union leads this maiden field with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating and a reasonable 3/1 morning line. Trainer Danny Pish is putting Rene Diaz on board, and this partnership has produced results on this card. In a maiden field where there are no career wins to reference, the rating differential is the key tool — and at 87.08, Curlin's Union has a meaningful edge over the next-best Metric Man at 81.99.

place2Metric ManML 6/1

Metric Man at 6/1 is a genuine value play with an 81.99 rating — second best in the field and available at a price the market may be underestimating. Floyd Wethey Jr. rides for trainer Francisco Bravo, and the 55 average speed figure is the best in the field. For a maiden event, that raw speed edge matters, and at 6/1 he's a prime place bet.

show4Wise DecisionML 5/2

Wise Decision is the 5/2 morning-line choice for the powerful Steven Asmussen barn with Stewart Elliott riding. His 74.24 rating sits third in the field, and the Asmussen operation is always dangerous in maiden events with well-prepared first-timers or lightly-raced horses. At 5/2, the show price won't be rich, but he belongs in any serious exotic play.

Race 10

11:05 PM EDT

Stakes · 5 fur · Turf

Miss Code West is the clear TrackWiz top pick in this 5-furlong turf stakes, but the 8/5 morning-line favorite Sassi Strutter and a stacked field full of high-win-percentage horses make this a wide-open betting race on the grass.

win3Miss Code WestML 5/2

Miss Code West leads the field with a top TrackWiz rating of 87.81 and an eye-popping 72% career win percentage — among the highest of any horse on this entire card. Trainer Kevin Scholl sends Floyd Wethey Jr. in, and at 5/2 on the morning line, this horse offers a compelling combination of rating dominance and an elite win rate. On a short 5-furlong turf sprint, a horse this consistent should be tough to beat.

place1BanterraML 9/2

Banterra at 9/2 rates second in the field at 78.16 for the Steven Asmussen barn with Erik Asmussen aboard. A 22% career win percentage and a 57 average speed figure are both solid for turf sprint company. The Asmussen family sends multiple horses into this race and Banterra appears to be their strongest contender on the ratings — a reliable place selection at a fair price.

show6Sassi StrutterML 8/5

Sassi Strutter is the morning-line favorite at 8/5 and posts a 41% career win percentage — a legitimate hit rate for any level. Trainer Lee Thomas has her sharp, and Thomas Pompell rides. The TrackWiz rating of 70.77 is third in the field, which is why she slots as the show pick rather than the top choice, but at near-even money she's nearly guaranteed to surface somewhere in the order.

Race 11

11:35 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Dirt

A full field of 12 maiden runners going 5 furlongs on the dirt is about as wide-open as racing gets — no career wins to reference, average speed figures missing for many, and a tight cluster of ratings that makes the top pick's edge modest at best.

win1Express SuccessML 6/5

Express Success opens as the 6/5 morning-line choice for the powerhouse Steven Asmussen barn with Erik Asmussen in the irons. His TrackWiz rating of 59.67 leads the field, and the Asmussen operation is as good as anyone at getting maiden runners ready for a big debut. In a field where many horses lack published speed figures, the Asmussen first-out pedigree and connections carry real weight.

place12VoldenML 5/1

Volden at 5/1 rates second in the field at 53.33 with an average speed figure of 54 — one of the few in this field to post any figure at all. Trainer Danny Pish and Lane Luzzi team up, and Pish has multiple horses in tonight's card with solid results. At 5/1, Volden represents genuine place value in a maiden field where identifying reliable speed is the entire challenge.

show8SorchaML 6/1

Sorcha at 6/1 for Todd Fincher rates third in the field at 51.67 with Alfredo Juarez Jr. getting the mount. Fincher is a quality trainer who doesn't waste entries, and Juarez is one of the meet's most active riders. With no speed figure published — common in maiden races — you're betting on connections and readiness, and this barn earns that trust at 6/1.

Race 12

12:05 AM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

The finale is a 1 1/16-mile turf stakes with a fascinating upset angle — the 7/5 morning-line favorite Sweet Rebecca is dramatically outrated by three horses on the TrackWiz scale, making this a card where the crowd favorite could be a genuine vulnerable top.

win10La FantasticaML 9/2

La Fantastica leads the field with an 84.9 TrackWiz rating and opens at 9/2 — excellent value against the heavily-bet 7/5 morning-line favorite who rates well below her on our scale. Trainer Steven Asmussen saddles Stewart Elliott for this race, and with a 20% career win percentage, she carries the right profile for a turf route. If the public money pours in on Sweet Rebecca, La Fantastica could be a big overlay at the windows.

place1TizawizML 5/1

Tizawiz at 5/1 rates second in the field at 81.72 and posts an impressive 41% career win percentage for trainer W. Bret Calhoun. DeShawn Parker gets the mount, and Calhoun's turf runners are consistently well-prepared. This is a horse with a deep résumé of success and a rating that clearly separates her from most of this field — a confident place pick at a fair price.

show2Ninth IslandML 8/1

Ninth Island at 8/1 rates third in the field at 68.54 with a 33% career win percentage — strong numbers for a horse available at 8/1. Jose Alvarez rides for W. Bret Calhoun, giving the barn a second bullet in the race alongside Tizawiz. At that price with those connections and a legitimate rating, Ninth Island is a strong show play and a welcome trifecta addition to cap the card.

Premium Content

Get the Full Card Analysis

Unlock expert picks for every race, detailed speed figures, trainer angles, and our SmartBet recommendations.

View Plans Sign In

Twelve races, four stakes, and a sizzling Lone Star afternoon — this card has teeth. High Cinco, Divine Wind, and Quixx are our free best bets to get you started, and Saline River in the turf stakes headlines a premium card that's worth every bit of the deep dive. Unlock the full analysis, pace maps, and exotic ticket breakdowns at /pricing and make the most of your Saturday at the track.

← Back to all picks

Best Bets

Race 1↗

Race 2↗

Race 3↗

Full Card Analysis

Get the Full Card Analysis

Race 1

Race 2

Race 3