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Lone Star Picks & Predictions — June 21, 2026

June 21, 202610 racesAll Lone Star picks

This card ran on June 21, 2026.

Best bets at Lone Star, June 21, 2026

Race 16Take ActionML 5/22:35 PM EDT

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Last 30 days at Lone Star: our top pick won 19 of 63 races (30%) and finished in the money in 37.

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It's a hot one at Lone Star Park today — literally. We're sitting at 91°F under partly cloudy skies, and that kind of Texas heat can absolutely play a factor, especially for routes on the turf. Ten races are on the board, mixing dirt sprints, a pair of allowance tests, and three turf miles that figure to draw some interesting late-running types.

The card opens with a stretch of claiming and maiden action before we get into the meatier stuff mid-card. Races 4, 7, and 10 all go on the lawn, so keep an eye on how the turf is playing as the card develops — in this heat, surface moisture can shift quickly and pace scenarios on grass can get scrambled fast.

TrackWiz analysis has 10 races covered today. Three are free for every reader, with our top picks featuring Take Action (R1), Irish Punch (R2), and Go Lang (R3) — all on the dirt and all carrying strong ratings heading into post time.

Best Bets

Race 1

2:35 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

The morning-line favorite isn't our top horse in this 5.5-furlong dirt claimer — TrackWiz ratings flip the script and point to a pair of overlooked contenders at juicy prices.

win6Take ActionML 5/2

Take Action (No. 6) tops our TrackWiz ratings at 87.34, the highest mark in the field, and backs it up with a strong 34% career win rate — that's elite for a claiming horse. Trainer J.R. Caldwell puts him out at 5/2 on the morning line, which actually represents solid value given how far ahead he grades over the competition. Jockey Rene Diaz gets the call, and the short 5.5-furlong trip on dirt suits a horse who projects to be on or near the pace early.

place2Sweet River BainesML 6/1

Sweet River Baines (No. 2) is our place pick at a tasty 6/1 morning line, and the TrackWiz rating of 82.71 says she's being underestimated by the oddsmakers. A 23% career win rate is respectable in this company, and with the highest average speed figure among the horses posted at this distance, she's got the raw tools to hit the board. Floyd Wethey Jr. is a capable handler for trainer Dick Cappellucci, and at those odds, she's a prime exotic inclusion.

show4Good LovinML 9/5

Good Lovin (No. 4) carries the morning-line favoritism at 9/5, and there's a reason — a 36% career win rate is genuinely impressive at this level. The TrackWiz rating of 76.04 puts her third in the field, and while she doesn't top our win rankings, she's a durable horse who finds a way to the board consistently. Trainer Justin R. Evans keeps her competitive, and she's a safe show anchor in your tickets.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

3:02 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A clear class standout sits atop the morning line in this 6.5-furlong dirt allowance, but a pair of hidden contenders lurk underneath for those looking to broaden their tickets.

win2Irish PunchML 9/5

Irish Punch (No. 2) leads our TrackWiz ratings at 88.83 and is the morning-line favorite at 9/5 — a rare case where the public and our model are firmly aligned. A 25% career win rate in allowance company is a solid benchmark, and trainer Steven Asmussen is one of the sharpest conditioners in the country at placing horses in spots they can win. Jockey Stewart Elliott knows this horse well, and the 6.5-furlong dirt distance is right in the wheelhouse.

place1Native CharmerML 5/2

Native Charmer (No. 1) opens at 5/2 and has the second-highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 68.69, though the 12% career win rate suggests this one runs better than her win numbers show. Trainer Justin Evans has a strong presence on the card today, and David Cabrera from the inside post should be able to save ground and land in a stalking position. At 5/2, there's legitimate place value here if the favorite gets into trouble early.

show5My ConquestML 5/1

My Conquest (No. 5) is worth a look for show at 5/1 morning line, especially given the 25% career win rate that matches Irish Punch's history and suggests he's capable on the right day. The TrackWiz rating of 60.54 isn't flashy, but in a race where several horses grade closely in the 59-61 range, he's squarely in the mix for a board finish. Trainer Jon Newbold with Weston Hamilton aboard gives this horse a professional setup for the short-priced exacta and trifecta plays.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Today's free races all share a common thread: they're dirt sprints in the 5½ to 6½ furlong range, which means pace shape is king. In this heat, horses that can rate just off the early fractions — rather than burning themselves up on the lead — tend to have a late-race edge. That angle lines up nicely with how our model grades Take Action at 5/2 on the morning line in Race 1 and Go Lang at 8/5 in the maiden claimer. Irish Punch in Race 2 is the most interesting free pick of the bunch: an allowance spot at 6½ furlongs with an 88.83 TrackWiz rating that puts him right at the top of today's full card.

These three free races give you a great foundation for the day, whether you're building a Pick 3 to kick things off or just looking for standalone win bets to warm up the bankroll. Dig into each race card below for the full breakdowns.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

3:29 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

This maiden claimer is a wide-open dash for first-time or lightly raced youngsters, and our model finds a standout — though with maiden races, anything can happen once the gate opens.

win3Go LangML 8/5

Go Lang (No. 3) is the clear top selection here with a field-best TrackWiz rating of 89.12, and the morning line of 8/5 reflects that public confidence. Trainer Jerenesto Torrez sends him out with Rene Diaz in the irons — a reliable combination at Lone Star. In a field where all horses are winless, the edge goes to the one who projects best on ability, and Go Lang's rating separates him from the pack by a wide margin.

place4Rowdy AmericanML 5/2

Rowdy American (No. 4) is our place play at 5/2 morning line, carrying the second-best TrackWiz rating in the race at 58.31. Trainer Kevin Peek puts Mario Fuentes up, and while this horse hasn't broken his maiden yet, the rating suggests consistent efforts that have him knocking on the door. In maiden claiming fields, horses that grade out second-best frequently hit the board even when they don't win.

show5Rockin' JamesML 5/1

Rockin' James (No. 5) offers some depth to exotic tickets at 5/1 and holds a TrackWiz rating of 51.38 — third-best in the field and in a tight cluster with the other mid-tier contenders. Trainer Vonn Mallery wheels him out with Amin Castillo, and while the average speed figure of 50 is modest, he's shown enough in our model to be considered a live show price. If the top two split the field up front, Rockin' James is the likeliest horse to pick up the pieces.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 4

3:56 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 1 mi · Turf

The mile on the Lone Star turf brings a starter allowance field where our model splits from the morning line — the public leans toward the 9/5 shot, but TrackWiz sees a different horse on top.

win6Cinco RichieML 5/2

Cinco Richie (No. 6) tops our TrackWiz model at 87.81 despite opening at 5/2, a full tick below the morning-line favorite. Trainer Karen Jacks gives Mario Fuentes the mount, and an average speed figure of 55 is the best in this field. While the 9% career win rate looks modest at first glance, the overall rating and pace profile suggest this horse is primed for a breakout effort on the turf going a flat mile.

place5Running PointML 9/5

Running Point (No. 5) comes in as the morning-line favorite at 9/5 with the most eye-catching career win rate in the entire field at 42% — that number is a serious outlier at this level and demands respect. Trainer Tristan Ashford sends him out with Lane Luzzi, and a TrackWiz rating of 79.67 makes him a clear second in our model. If Cinco Richie doesn't get clear, Running Point has the winning pedigree to grab the place or more.

show8AdgerML 5/2

Adger (No. 8) rounds out our show selection at 5/2 morning line with a TrackWiz rating of 74.88 — third in the field and within striking range of the top two. Trainer Mindy Willis puts Stewart Elliott up, a savvy veteran who handles turf routes with patience. At a price that could contract significantly at post time, Adger is a safer show anchor than the big prices in this race and fits comfortably in trifecta exotics.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 5

4:23 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Two horses separate themselves from the rest of this 5.5-furlong dirt claimer, but our model flips the morning-line order — this could be where the public gets it slightly wrong.

win4Red SummerbirdML 8/5

Red Summerbird (No. 4) shares the field's top TrackWiz rating at 89.12 and is posted at a reasonable 8/5 morning line. Trainer Mindy Willis, who also has Adger on the turf card today, clearly brings horses ready, and Stewart Elliott takes the mount — one of the more experienced jockeys on the Lone Star circuit. A 15% career win rate isn't elite, but the raw speed and overall profile make Red Summerbird the most complete horse in this spot.

place1HezakoolkatML 7/5

Hezakoolkat (No. 1) is the 7/5 morning-line favorite, and we won't fight that completely — a TrackWiz rating of 79.1 still makes him the second-best horse in our model. Trainer Domingo Chacaltana has him prepped for the sprint distance, and Rodolfo Guerra gets the favorable rail post. He's a horse that should run into the money even if Red Summerbird is sharper on this day.

show3Chasing the RushML 10/1

Chasing the Rush (No. 3) is the value piece of this ticket at 10/1 morning line despite a TrackWiz rating of 66.11 that says she belongs in the conversation. Trainer Tiffany Hernandez has her at a price that likely won't reflect her true ability, and Lane Luzzi is a capable pilot who can navigate a short sprint efficiently. At 10/1, even a show finish pays well, and this is the type of overlay that makes trifectas worth playing.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 6

4:50 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The Allowance Optional Claiming at 6 furlongs features some eye-popping career win percentages — this is a competitive bunch, and the race shape could favor a presser with a late kick.

win4Leslie's MojeauxML 3/1

Leslie's Mojeaux (No. 4) leads our TrackWiz model at 85.58 and is posted at 3/1 on the morning line, a fair price given her credentials. The 60% career win rate is simply remarkable — this mare knows how to get to the wire first, and trainer W. Bret Calhoun is an accomplished conditioner who spots his horses in winnable spots. Jockey Jose Alvarez keeps the mount, and 6 furlongs on dirt is a distance this horse should handle comfortably.

place6Cyndi LoperML 5/1

Cyndi Loper (No. 6) opens at 5/1 but packs a punch — a 66% career win rate is tied for the second-highest in the field, and the TrackWiz rating of 84.02 puts her right behind our top pick. Trainer Francisco Bravo sends her out with Floyd Wethey Jr., and the average speed figure of 54 is competitive here. At 5/1, she's an excellent place target and frankly a horse who could steal the whole thing if Leslie's Mojeaux doesn't fire.

show2Spring in ParisML 4/1

Spring in Paris (No. 2) catches the eye immediately with a 50% career win rate, the second-highest in the race, and a solid TrackWiz rating of 76.78. Trainer Steven Asmussen puts his son Erik in the irons — this is a barn that wins at a high clip and doesn't enter without a plan. The average speed figure of 57 is best in the field, which suggests she can press the pace and still have something left for the stretch.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 7

5:17 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A sprawling 14-horse turf claimer at a mile is exactly the kind of race that rewards patience — big fields on the lawn create traffic chaos, and our model finds two horses clustered at the top with a clear edge over the rest.

win8MoneylineML 7/2

Moneyline (No. 8) edges out our top rating at 84.18 despite being posted at 7/2 morning line, a hair better than the closely rated second pick. Trainer Shawn Davis sends him out with David Cabrera, a jockey who handles turf routes with composure. A 10% career win rate in this company and average speed figure of 54 puts him at the top of the competitive cluster, and in a full field, a horse that saves ground from the 8-hole with the right trip can absolutely win this.

place7Austin CruiseML 3/1

Austin Cruise (No. 7) is separated from Moneyline by just a fraction in our model at 84.04, and the Steven Asmussen-Erik Asmussen combination is a factor worth circling. A 16% career win rate and average speed figure of 54 match up well, and the 3/1 morning line suggests the market respects him too. In a big field where things can go sideways, having the Asmussen barn's runner running second in our ratings makes the place bet compelling.

show4HamlinML 5/2

Hamlin (No. 4) rounds out our picks at 5/2 morning line with a TrackWiz rating of 74.12, third in the field and notably ahead of the pack of horses clustered in the 30-55 range. Trainer Robertino Diodoro is a sharp conditioner, and Ramon Vazquez is an experienced turf pilot who can navigate a crowded field at the mile distance. A 20% career win rate is legitimate at this level, and the 5/2 price on a horse with this profile makes him a strong trifecta anchor.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 14 runners

Race 8

5:44 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

Three horses are bunched tightly at the top of the TrackWiz ratings in this 7-furlong dirt claimer, setting up a pace scenario where the closers may have the edge over early speed.

win6CuecaML 3/1

Cueca (No. 6) leads our model at 79.73 and draws the 3/1 morning line that feels right given her credentials. A 21% career win rate stands out in this field, and trainer Francisco Bravo knows how to aim a horse at this distance. Iram Vargas Diego picks up the mount, and the average speed figure of 53 gives Cueca the ability to sit mid-pack and unleash a run in the stretch — the ideal profile for a 7-furlong dirt route.

place1BoltoroML 5/2

Boltoro (No. 1) is right on Cueca's heels in our model at 79.16 and opens at 5/2 morning line, giving him legitimate win chances as well. Trainer J.R. Caldwell is active on this card, and Rene Diaz takes the inside post — breaking well from the rail at 7 furlongs can be an advantage if he gets a clean trip to the first turn. The 10% career win rate understates how often this horse hits the board based on overall rating.

show2Fayette BlueML 2/1

Fayette Blue (No. 2) is the 2/1 morning-line favorite and holds a TrackWiz rating of 76.86, just a tick below the top two. Trainer Jaime Castellanos is well-represented on today's card, and Rodolfo Guerra looks to push forward from the 2-post. The 11% career win rate is modest, but at 2/1 with this profile, he's a safe show hedge — and if the top two tangle early, Fayette Blue could be the one who slips through on the wire.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 9

6:11 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

This 6-furlong dirt claimer features a morning-line chalk that our model actually fades in favor of a bigger-priced horse — a classic spot where TrackWiz ratings diverge meaningfully from the public price.

win6Rusty GadgetML 9/2

Rusty Gadget (No. 6) is our top-rated horse in the race at 84.90 but opens at 9/2 — that's a significant gap from the 2/1 favorite, and it's exactly the kind of overlay our model targets. Trainer Miguel Angel Silva keeps Rene Diaz in the irons, and an average speed figure of 54 is competitive in this field. The 3% career win rate is the one number that needs explaining, but overall profile ratings account for far more than raw win totals, and Rusty Gadget's 84.90 is a field-best by a meaningful margin.

place9Roman EagleML 7/2

Roman Eagle (No. 9) sits at 7/2 morning line with a TrackWiz rating of 77.79, second-best in the field and another horse priced above what his underlying numbers suggest. Trainer Austin Gustafson sends him out with Ramon Vazquez, a jockey who handles dirt sprints confidently. A 5% career win rate is low, but the rating and pace profile put him squarely in the board conversation, especially if the favorite at 2/1 gets pressured hard early.

show3He Is Heaven SentML 2/1

He Is Heaven Sent (No. 3) is the 2/1 morning-line choice our model fades slightly for the win, but a TrackWiz rating of 76.80 puts him firmly in the mix for a board finish. Trainer Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez sends him out with Geovanni Franco, and an average speed figure of 54 tied with our top two picks suggests competitive speed on paper. He's a horse you keep in your trifectas — if things break right, he could still be in front at the wire.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 11 runners

Race 10

6:38 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

Ten maidens hit the Lone Star turf going a flat mile to close out the card — all are winless, but our model finds one horse with a commanding edge and a couple of place threats worth exploring at big prices.

win4Leah's FirstML 9/5

Leah's First (No. 4) carries the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 88.83 — the highest score among all ten horses — and the 9/5 morning line confirms the public sees it too. Trainer W. Bret Calhoun puts Jose Alvarez aboard, a pairing that has combined effectively on the Lone Star turf circuit. An average speed figure of 53 matches the upper tier of this field, and in a maiden turf mile, class and consistency of effort matter more than flashy wins — and Leah's First has both.

place3Honor GodML 10/1

Honor God (No. 3) is our big-value place target at 10/1, holding a TrackWiz rating of 69.79 — second-best in the entire field and a massive gap above the rest. Trainer Eduardo Cruz sends him out with David Cabrera, who has logged plenty of miles on the Lone Star lawn. At 10/1 for a horse grading out this well, there's a strong case that the market has underestimated him, and he's a primary exotic play in every trifecta and exacta combination you build tonight.

show6Brunch SpotML 8/1

Brunch Spot (No. 6) opens at 8/1 morning line with a TrackWiz rating of 49.25, which places her third among the horses we can fully evaluate in this field. Trainer Scott Young keeps Floyd Wethey Jr. on board, and while the average speed figure of 51 is below the leaders, turf miles can compress the field late and reward horses that save ground and finish. At 8/1, she's a worthwhile show anchor in your tickets and offers excellent trifecta value.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

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Bottom line: Lone Star is serving up a full 10-race Sunday card in serious heat, with Irish Punch standing out as our highest-rated free pick and Rusty Gadget as the premium value angle worth watching late. Take Action and Go Lang round out a solid free-race foundation for the day. For pace breakdowns, exotic tickets, and every premium race analysis, subscribe to TrackWiz and come back to this page — everything you need is right here. Good luck out there, and stay hydrated.

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