Lone Star Picks & Predictions — June 19, 2026
Happy Juneteenth from Lone Star Park, where the horses are running and the weather is cooperating. We've got partly cloudy skies and a comfortable 82°F this afternoon — good conditions for a full 8-race card with a nice mix of dirt sprints, a pair of turf tests, and everything from maiden claimers to allowance company.
The card opens with a heavy favorite in the allowance and closes with what looks like a fascinating maiden special weight on the turf. Sandwiched in between are some genuinely competitive claiming races where the pace scenarios get interesting and the prices can be very much alive. Three of today's eight races are unlocked and free for every TrackWiz reader — the rest are in the full premium breakdown.
Best Bets
Race 1
Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt
A clear two-horse race shapes up in this 6-furlong allowance, with the morning line screaming it loud — but a double-digit price offers a sneaky exotic alternative underneath.
HIGHH COUNTRY draws a top TrackWiz rating of 90 in a field where the next closest is more than seven points back, and the 3/5 morning line reflects just how dominant the numbers look. Trained by Nicole Ruggeri, this horse pairs a 16% career win rate with the highest average speed figure (48) in the race — a modest edge but a real one at six furlongs on dirt. The pace scenario sets up nicely too: with a field this short on firepower, expect Ruggeri's runner to control terms and never look back.
BURNING HESS is the other half of the Ruggeri barn's one-two punch, and a 42% career win rate is genuinely elite — the best in this field by a wide margin. Opened at 2/1, this horse carries a TrackWiz rating of 82.26 and an average speed of 47, making it a legitimate contender if the top pick runs into trouble. The barn having both the top two horses is a strong stable angle worth respecting in exacta construction.
WMA MANILLA at 10/1 morning line is the value spot in this race, posting a 55.91 rating that sits well clear of the remaining pretenders. Trainer Antwain Ernest Franklin sends this one out at a price that looks too generous for a horse that rates third-best in the field — a perfect inclusion in trifecta and exacta bottom tickets.
Race 2
Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt
A nine-horse maiden claimer full of first-out and lightly raced runners makes this a speed-figure puzzle — two horses share the top average speed mark, but their TrackWiz ratings tell very different stories.
BREAKER WAVE leads this maiden claimer with a TrackWiz rating of 78.59 — nearly 20 points clear of second-best — and ties for the top average speed figure in the field at 54. Trainer Allen C. Dupuy saddles both the top two picks, a stable angle that's hard to ignore, and David Cabrera is a capable handler for a horse that figures to be forwardly placed from post 4. In maiden claiming sprints, top TrackWiz ratings hit at a solid clip and this is the most compelling number on the board.
EDGEWATER also checks in with a 54 average speed figure and carries the 8/5 morning line — the public's choice — but a rating of 59 trails Breaker Wave by nearly 20 points. The Erik Asmussen/Steven M. Asmussen jockey-trainer connection is a well-known barn angle and worth noting: when the Asmussens double up at Lone Star, they come to run. A legit place threat even if the top pick has the better overall profile.
ZAPPER M is the other Dupuy runner in the field, sporting a 51.67 rating and a 53 average speed figure — third-fastest in the race. The value at 6/1 morning line is real, and having two horses in the race from the same barn means connections have a good read on both; often the 'second' Dupuy runner sneaks into the exacta at a price.
Race 3
Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt
This 6.5-furlong dirt claimer features a wide-open pace scenario with multiple closers and a clear top-rated standout who the morning line underestimates relative to his TrackWiz score.
FLEETRIDGE checks in with the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 85.62 and a 21% career win rate — better than the field average — while trainer Isaiah Ortiz sends Jose L. Alvarez up for the call. The 4/1 morning line represents genuine value for a horse that rates this clearly above the competition, and a 55 average speed figure matches the frontrunners stride for stride. In a claiming sprint where class differences are often decisive, Fleetridge's edge on the ratings is significant.
RUNHAPPY D'ORO is one of the pace-setters on raw speed at 56 average — tied for the best in the race — and a 76.40 TrackWiz rating makes this a solid place prospect at 8/1 morning line. Floyd Wethey Jr. rides for trainer Scott E. Young, and a 12% career win rate understates a horse that projects to be on or near the lead all the way around. If the pace duel heats up, this one's closing profile makes it a dangerous finisher.
I'M WIDE AWAKE posts a 67.24 rating and the best career win percentage of any horse in this race at 18%, which is a real number in a competitive claimer. Trainer Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez keeps this one sharp, and a 55 average speed figure means it won't be getting outrun early. At 3/1, it's not a longshot, but the combination of consistent winning history and solid figures makes it a reliable show anchor in multi-race exotics.
Our three free races cover the first half of the card and each tells a different story. Race 1 is headlined by HIGHH COUNTRY, who comes in as a 3/5 morning-line favorite in the allowance — a short price, but our TrackWiz rating of 90 says that number is defensible. In Race 2, the maiden claiming field opens the door for Breaker Wave at a more palatable 5/2. And in Race 3, Fleetridge stands out at 4/1 in the 6.5-furlong claiming dash — that's the kind of overlay price on a horse with an 85+ TrackWiz rating that you circle quickly.
The common thread across these three free races is pace — Lone Star's dirt surface tends to reward horses that can press or stalk a contested early pace rather than sitting too far back, so keep an eye on how the early fractions set up in each sprint.
Full Card Analysis
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Bottom line for today at Lone Star: HIGHH COUNTRY sets the tone early, Fleetridge offers the best free-race value angle at 4/1, and the turf closer Bint Al Dandy (even money, 90 TrackWiz rating) shapes up as the marquee play of the afternoon. For pace breakdowns, exotic tickets, and the full 8-race card, the complete analysis is waiting for subscribers at /pricing. Good luck out there — ride smart.