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Lone Star Picks & Predictions — June 19, 2026

June 19, 20268 racesAll Lone Star picks

This card ran on June 19, 2026.

Best bets at Lone Star, June 19, 2026

Race 14HIGHH COUNTRYML 3/57:35 PM EDT

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Last 30 days at Lone Star: our top pick won 19 of 63 races (30%) and finished in the money in 37.

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Happy Juneteenth from Lone Star Park, where the horses are running and the weather is cooperating. We've got partly cloudy skies and a comfortable 82°F this afternoon — good conditions for a full 8-race card with a nice mix of dirt sprints, a pair of turf tests, and everything from maiden claimers to allowance company.

The card opens with a heavy favorite in the allowance and closes with what looks like a fascinating maiden special weight on the turf. Sandwiched in between are some genuinely competitive claiming races where the pace scenarios get interesting and the prices can be very much alive. Three of today's eight races are unlocked and free for every TrackWiz reader — the rest are in the full premium breakdown.

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Race 1

7:35 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

A clear two-horse race shapes up in this 6-furlong allowance, with the morning line screaming it loud — but a double-digit price offers a sneaky exotic alternative underneath.

win4HIGHH COUNTRYML 3/5

HIGHH COUNTRY draws a top TrackWiz rating of 90 in a field where the next closest is more than seven points back, and the 3/5 morning line reflects just how dominant the numbers look. Trained by Nicole Ruggeri, this horse pairs a 16% career win rate with the highest average speed figure (48) in the race — a modest edge but a real one at six furlongs on dirt. The pace scenario sets up nicely too: with a field this short on firepower, expect Ruggeri's runner to control terms and never look back.

place5BURNING HESSML 2/1

BURNING HESS is the other half of the Ruggeri barn's one-two punch, and a 42% career win rate is genuinely elite — the best in this field by a wide margin. Opened at 2/1, this horse carries a TrackWiz rating of 82.26 and an average speed of 47, making it a legitimate contender if the top pick runs into trouble. The barn having both the top two horses is a strong stable angle worth respecting in exacta construction.

show6WMA MANILLAML 10/1

WMA MANILLA at 10/1 morning line is the value spot in this race, posting a 55.91 rating that sits well clear of the remaining pretenders. Trainer Antwain Ernest Franklin sends this one out at a price that looks too generous for a horse that rates third-best in the field — a perfect inclusion in trifecta and exacta bottom tickets.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

8:02 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A nine-horse maiden claimer full of first-out and lightly raced runners makes this a speed-figure puzzle — two horses share the top average speed mark, but their TrackWiz ratings tell very different stories.

win4Breaker WaveML 5/2

BREAKER WAVE leads this maiden claimer with a TrackWiz rating of 78.59 — nearly 20 points clear of second-best — and ties for the top average speed figure in the field at 54. Trainer Allen C. Dupuy saddles both the top two picks, a stable angle that's hard to ignore, and David Cabrera is a capable handler for a horse that figures to be forwardly placed from post 4. In maiden claiming sprints, top TrackWiz ratings hit at a solid clip and this is the most compelling number on the board.

place2EdgewaterML 8/5

EDGEWATER also checks in with a 54 average speed figure and carries the 8/5 morning line — the public's choice — but a rating of 59 trails Breaker Wave by nearly 20 points. The Erik Asmussen/Steven M. Asmussen jockey-trainer connection is a well-known barn angle and worth noting: when the Asmussens double up at Lone Star, they come to run. A legit place threat even if the top pick has the better overall profile.

show5Zapper MML 6/1

ZAPPER M is the other Dupuy runner in the field, sporting a 51.67 rating and a 53 average speed figure — third-fastest in the race. The value at 6/1 morning line is real, and having two horses in the race from the same barn means connections have a good read on both; often the 'second' Dupuy runner sneaks into the exacta at a price.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Our three free races cover the first half of the card and each tells a different story. Race 1 is headlined by HIGHH COUNTRY, who comes in as a 3/5 morning-line favorite in the allowance — a short price, but our TrackWiz rating of 90 says that number is defensible. In Race 2, the maiden claiming field opens the door for Breaker Wave at a more palatable 5/2. And in Race 3, Fleetridge stands out at 4/1 in the 6.5-furlong claiming dash — that's the kind of overlay price on a horse with an 85+ TrackWiz rating that you circle quickly.

The common thread across these three free races is pace — Lone Star's dirt surface tends to reward horses that can press or stalk a contested early pace rather than sitting too far back, so keep an eye on how the early fractions set up in each sprint.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

8:29 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

This 6.5-furlong dirt claimer features a wide-open pace scenario with multiple closers and a clear top-rated standout who the morning line underestimates relative to his TrackWiz score.

win4FleetridgeML 4/1

FLEETRIDGE checks in with the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 85.62 and a 21% career win rate — better than the field average — while trainer Isaiah Ortiz sends Jose L. Alvarez up for the call. The 4/1 morning line represents genuine value for a horse that rates this clearly above the competition, and a 55 average speed figure matches the frontrunners stride for stride. In a claiming sprint where class differences are often decisive, Fleetridge's edge on the ratings is significant.

place9Runhappy d'OroML 8/1

RUNHAPPY D'ORO is one of the pace-setters on raw speed at 56 average — tied for the best in the race — and a 76.40 TrackWiz rating makes this a solid place prospect at 8/1 morning line. Floyd Wethey Jr. rides for trainer Scott E. Young, and a 12% career win rate understates a horse that projects to be on or near the lead all the way around. If the pace duel heats up, this one's closing profile makes it a dangerous finisher.

show1I'm Wide AwakeML 3/1

I'M WIDE AWAKE posts a 67.24 rating and the best career win percentage of any horse in this race at 18%, which is a real number in a competitive claimer. Trainer Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez keeps this one sharp, and a 55 average speed figure means it won't be getting outrun early. At 3/1, it's not a longshot, but the combination of consistent winning history and solid figures makes it a reliable show anchor in multi-race exotics.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 4

8:56 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden special weight sprint goes to the 3/1 morning line runner on ratings, but several first-out unknowns with no published speed figures add a layer of mystery to the finale of the early card.

win7Adelyn's RockingML 3/1

ADELYN'S ROCKING carries the field's top TrackWiz rating at 87.08 — a commanding 25-point margin over the next closest — and a 53 average speed figure puts this horse right in the mix at six furlongs on dirt. Rodolfo Guerra has the call for trainer Mark N. Hibdon, and the 3/1 morning line reflects genuine respect from the linemaker without making this a bad-value play. In maiden special weight company, a horse with this kind of ratings separation rarely needs a perfect trip to win.

place8Chief BrownML 5/1

CHIEF BROWN rates second in the field at 62.26 and also carries a 53 average speed figure, giving this horse a realistic shot at running into the exacta at 5/1. Trainer Jayde J. Gelner hands the lines to Deshawn L. Parker, and the combination of competitive figures and a fair price makes Chief Brown a natural underneath play for players looking to build value into their exotics.

show3No InterruptionML 5/2

NO INTERRUPTION holds a 57.50 TrackWiz rating and the 5/2 morning line — the public's second choice — with trainer Eduardo Cruz sending out David Cabrera. The 52 average speed figure is modest but workable for a six-furlong sprint, and the market clearly respects this horse's connections enough to make it the bridesmaid on the toteboard. A reliable show ticket option for cautious players.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 5

9:23 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 1/2 fur · Turf

A full field of twelve heads to the turf for this 7.5-furlong claiming event, and with a massive ratings gap between the top horse and the rest, the race has a clear standout — though turf sprints at this distance can produce surprises.

win2News At NineML 4/1

NEWS AT NINE commands a 85.62 TrackWiz rating — by far the highest in this twelve-horse field — and trainer W. Bret Calhoun deploys Jose L. Alvarez, a combination that carries real weight on the turf at Lone Star. The 16% career win rate is modest, but a 54 average speed figure matches the field's mainstream pace, and at 4/1 morning line, the ratings premium here looks underpriced. Calhoun is a consistent performer in turf claiming company and this horse profiles as a come-from-behind threat on the longer turf route.

place4Wow That's HotML 5/1

WOW THAT'S HOT brings a 28% career win rate — second-best in the field — combined with a 68.33 TrackWiz rating and a 54 average speed figure. The Steven M. Asmussen/Erik Asmussen father-son combo has a strong Lone Star record, and a 5/1 morning line on a horse with this much winning history on its résumé feels like a gift. This is a natural place horse who projects to run big and offer some payout.

show11Down the IslandsML 8/1

DOWN THE ISLANDS is priced at 8/1 and holds a 60.21 rating — third in the field — with a 55 average speed figure that is actually the best among the top three picks. Trainer Sarah Nicole Davidson sends out Mario Fuentes, and an 11% career win rate in a competitive field doesn't scare us away from using this one in exotics at a double-digit morning line. A legitimate show anchor with upset potential.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 12 runners

Race 6

9:50 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A deep thirteen-horse maiden claimer on the dirt features a jumbled pace picture and several horses with similar speed figures — making the TrackWiz ratings separation the clearest path to a winner.

win5Wasted WarriorML 3/1

WASTED WARRIOR heads our analysis with a 78.28 TrackWiz rating — the field's best mark — and a 54 average speed figure that ties three others but sets this horse apart on overall quality. Trainer Martin Manuel Valdez-Cabral hands the mount to Alfredo J. Juarez Jr., and the 3/1 morning line is strong without being off-putting for a horse leading on numbers. In a field this large and this evenly matched on raw speed, having the top overall rating is often the tiebreaker.

place10Perfect DialML 9/2

PERFECT DIAL draws attention at program number 10 with a 66.31 rating — second-best in the field — and a 54 average speed figure to match. Trainer W. Bret Calhoun is one of the more reliable conditioners at Lone Star and Jose L. Alvarez is a top-notch pilot; this combo doesn't show up for second. The 9/2 morning line makes Perfect Dial a great exacta partner with the top pick.

show9Amazing MusicML 7/2

AMAZING MUSIC at 7/2 morning line owns a 60.43 rating and a 54 average speed figure — very much in the thick of the top tier — with Ramon A. Vazquez up for trainer Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez. Three horses in this race share the same 54 average speed, so the pace could get honest early and set things up for a closer; Vazquez is the kind of rider who maximizes that scenario. A comfortable show anchor and a building block for trifecta tickets.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 13 runners

Race 7

10:17 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A one-mile dirt claimer sets up as a genuine three-horse battle at the top, with the favorite on the morning line rated below our top two picks — a potential value spot in an already competitive field.

win7Brock On ByML 9/2

BROCK ON BY carries the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 84.90 despite opening at 9/2 — creating a genuine disconnect between the public's preference and what our numbers say. Trainer J.R. Caldwell sends Rene Diaz out for the mile trip, and a 17% career win rate is perfectly respectable in this claiming company. The 52 average speed figure matches the pack, so the edge here is in the overall quality score rather than raw pace — at a mile, that translates to stamina and trip management.

place6Donegal FreedomML 3/1

DONEGAL FREEDOM checks in at 78.79 on the TrackWiz scale and opens at 3/1 — the morning-line favorite — with trainer Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez and jockey Ramon A. Vazquez forming one of the more active barn-rider pairings at Lone Star. A 20% career win rate is legitimate, and a 53 average speed figure keeps this horse honest in the pace. If Brock On By wins, Donegal Freedom looks like the natural second horse, and the 3/1 price in the place pool should be well worth taking.

show2Third StreetML 5/2

THIRD STREET posts a 67.09 rating and the best average speed figure in the race at 56 — a real edge at a one-mile distance where early pace can determine who has the energy to finish. Erik Asmussen rides for trainer Justin R. Evans, and a 24% career win rate is the best in this field, suggesting a horse who converts when the opportunity is right. At 5/2, Third Street is nearly co-favored on the morning line and offers a solid show foundation.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 8

10:44 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Turf

A 5-furlong maiden special weight on turf features an even-money standout with a perfect 90 TrackWiz rating — rare clarity in maiden company — but the second and third picks offer live value for exotic players.

win8Bint Al DandyML EVN

BINT AL DANDY is the most dominant single-horse profile on today's card, drawing a 90 TrackWiz rating — the maximum — and a 56 average speed figure that leads this turf maiden field outright. Trainer Austin Gustafson sends Ramon A. Vazquez up on the even-money morning line, and while laying even money is never comfortable, this horse's separation from the field (the next-best rating is 52.26) justifies the chalk. At five furlongs on turf, early speed paired with top figures often produces wire-to-wire winners.

place7Bird of PreyML 3/1

BIRD OF PREY is the second-best rated horse in the field at 52.26 and opens at 3/1 with the Asmussen family combination — Erik aboard for Steven M. The 54 average speed figure is competitive for this turf sprint, and trainer Steven Asmussen's record with first-time turf runners is a widely respected positive angle in Texas. A natural place companion for the heavy favorite, and a legitimate single if the chalk faces any trouble.

show5Philadelphia RollML 8/1

PHILADELPHIA ROLL at 8/1 morning line carries a 48.33 rating and no published average speed figure, suggesting this is a debut or lightly-raced runner with unknown upside. Trainer Austin Gustafson — the same barn as the heavy favorite — saddles this one, meaning connections have a direct read on both horses. When a trainer runs two horses and one is the heavy favorite, the 'second' barn runner often gets overlooked and can surface quietly for a piece at a monster price.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

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Bottom line for today at Lone Star: HIGHH COUNTRY sets the tone early, Fleetridge offers the best free-race value angle at 4/1, and the turf closer Bint Al Dandy (even money, 90 TrackWiz rating) shapes up as the marquee play of the afternoon. For pace breakdowns, exotic tickets, and the full 8-race card, the complete analysis is waiting for subscribers at /pricing. Good luck out there — ride smart.

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