Lone Star Picks & Predictions — June 14, 2026

Bad Beat Brian (70.45 rating) is trained by Steve Asmussen — one of the most successful trainers in American racing — with his son Erik in the saddle, an in-house combination that often signals intent. The 5/1 morning line offers some play for a horse in the top tier of this field's ratings, and that Asmussen barn connection is worth taking seriously in any optional claimer on the turf.

Stayed in for Half rounds out the ticket at a 70.07 rating, nearly identical to Bad Beat Brian, and actually posts the highest average speed figure in the field at 57 alongside those two. Trainer Karen E. Jacks sends this one out with Iram Vargas Diego up, and a 19% career win rate is respectable for an allowance turf runner. The 3/1 morning line is fair, and the speed figure edge makes this horse a solid show inclusion or a trifecta leg.

Copper Wind draws the short end of the morning-line stick at 2/1 despite a 67.02 rating that trails Divine Wind by over 20 points. Trainer Steven Asmussen sends this one out with Erik Asmussen up — always a combination to note — and a 20% career win rate adds credibility. The price won't be generous at the windows, but Copper Wind looks like a safe place play and a necessary exacta include given the stable power behind it.

Private Debbie rounds out the ticket at 4/1 with a 51.88 rating and a strong 20% career win rate — the same as Copper Wind. Stewart Elliott rides for the Asmussen barn, and the fact that Asmussen has two horses in this race (Private Debbie and Copper Wind) gives them a tactical advantage in the pace scenario. At 4/1, Private Debbie offers the best price of the top three and is worth including in trifectas.

Dr. Soulfire is essentially a coin flip with the top pick on ratings — 84.17 versus 84.65 — but comes in at a slightly wider 5/1 morning line. Trainer Steven Asmussen runs this one with Erik Asmussen in the irons, and a 13% career win rate isn't flashy, but the raw rating number is elite in this company. In a claiming race, the Asmussen name carries weight and makes Dr. Soulfire the automatic place backup.

Positivity sits third in the ratings at 75.34 and posts the field's co-best average speed figure of 56, which suggests a horse that runs consistent numbers without always converting. Trainer Justin R. Evans sends David Cabrera to the gate, and a 23% career win rate is the strongest mark among the show contenders. The 3/1 morning line is tight, but the speed figure parity with the top two makes Positivity a legitimate trifecta leg.

Zed also trains with Terry Eoff — giving that barn a powerful one-two punch — and earns an Erik Asmussen mount alongside a 77.68 TrackWiz rating. The 5/2 morning line matches Gold Front, and the two horses could work in tandem on the pace or take turns making their runs in a mile on turf. At the same morning line as the win pick, Zed is a natural place play and a key exacta partner.

Rocky Colavito is the value angle here — a 76.88 TrackWiz rating that actually trails Zed by less than a point, yet comes in at a 10/1 morning line that looks like a potential overlay. Trainer Robertino Diodoro sends out Geovanni Franco, a reliable combination at this level, and a 16% career win rate is respectable for a claiming turf router. The rating vs. price gap makes Rocky Colavito one of the better trifecta plays on the full card.

Strong Potential is the public's top choice at 2/1 and posts a 71.42 rating for the Asmussen barn with Stewart Elliott up — a combination that commands respect at every level. A 16% career win rate matches Papa Ken but the shorter price reflects heavy public support. The Asmussen-Elliott combo in a straight allowance sprint is hard to dismiss, and Strong Potential is the most likely pace-setter or presser in this field.

Dutton's Song checks in at 68.26 for trainer Shawn H. Davis with Jose L. Alvarez in the saddle, and a 20% career win rate is actually the best mark among the three picks. The 7/2 morning line is fair, and an average speed figure of 56 — which leads the field alongside Strong Potential — gives Dutton's Song legitimate credentials in this company. This is a horse worth including in all multi-leg exotics as the third piece.

Queen's Edge sits second in the ratings at 54.17 and comes in at a workable 9/2 for trainer Ronnie E. Cravens III with Mario Fuentes up. An average speed figure of 53 provides some form basis in a field full of unknown quantities, and the rating edge over the rest of the field (outside the top three picks) is clear. At nearly double the win pick's price, Queen's Edge is an appealing exacta partner.

Kamikaze Cowgirl rates third at 53.33 for trainer Danny Pish with Weston Hamilton in the saddle, giving this one a capable crew for what could be a debut. The 5/1 price is fair in a maiden race full of question marks, and Pish has the experience to send a ready horse postward when the spot is right. Without a recorded average speed figure, this is a speculative play — but the rating and trainer credibility make Kamikaze Cowgirl a legitimate trifecta piece.

Topic Thunder rates second at 80.79 with a 4/1 morning line for trainer Wade Rarick and jockey Alfredo J. Juarez Jr. The 12% career win rate is workable for this level, and Rarick also trains Love That Witch (the show pick), giving the barn a strong positional presence in the race. At 4/1, Topic Thunder is fairly priced and profiles as the most natural exacta partner with the top pick.

Love That Witch brings a 76.89 rating and a 20% career win rate — the best among the top three picks — at an 8/1 morning line that screams overlay. Trainer Wade Rarick runs both this horse and Topic Thunder in the same race, meaning the barn has real skin in the game across multiple positions. The combination of a strong career win rate, a high rating, and a double-digit morning line makes Love That Witch one of the best trifecta values on the closing card.