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Lone Star Picks & Predictions — June 5, 2026

June 5, 20268 racesAll Lone Star picks

This card ran on June 5, 2026.

Best bets at Lone Star, June 5, 2026

Race 19MON SAFIRML 5/17:35 PM EDT

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Last 30 days at Lone Star: our top pick won 19 of 63 races (30%) and finished in the money in 37.

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It's a Friday afternoon at Lone Star Park and the Texas heat is taking the day off — cloudy skies and a pleasant 81°F greet us for an 8-race card that mixes dirt sprints, a pair of turf routes, and a deep field of maidens looking to break their duck. Good conditions for fast times, and TrackWiz analysis sees some genuine angles worth pressing.

Three of today's races are open to all readers, and the free picks alone give you a solid foundation for the afternoon. If you want the full picture — pace projections, exotic ticket construction, and our premium plays on five additional races — subscribers have everything waiting for them.

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Race 1

7:35 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

A wide-open Allowance Optional Claiming sprint at seven furlongs with a legitimate contender hidden near the top of the program — MON SAFIR's gaudy career win percentage sets him apart in what otherwise looks like a competitive middle tier.

win9MON SAFIRML 5/1

MON SAFIR tops our TrackWiz ratings at 83.51 and brings a career win percentage of 42% to the gate — easily the best strike rate in this field. Trained by Carlos A. Padilla and ridden by Fernando Jara, this horse averages a 49 speed figure, tied for tops in the race. At 5/1 on the morning line, you're getting legitimate value on what looks like the class of the field, and that combination of high win rate plus strong rating makes him a confident best bet.

place2RS FORTEZAML 8/1

RS FORTEZA is tough to overlook here — a 79.79 TrackWiz rating is second-best in the field, and a 30% career win percentage is elite for this level. Trainer Nicole Ruggeri also has AA SWEET VICTORY in the race, but FORTEZA at 8/1 on the morning line is the one we want underneath for place. That's real value if the top selection falters.

show8QUICK RAE AAML 7/2

QUICK RAE AA comes in with a solid 72.34 rating and sits at a fair 7/2 on the morning line. The Javier Ruiz Ortiz barn also saddles AA TAKE A CHANCE in this spot, giving the trainer a solid two-pronged attack. QUICK RAE AA's 18% career win rate is modest, but the TrackWiz number suggests a horse capable of hitting the board in a race this competitive.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

8:02 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A first-level Maiden Special Weight sprint on dirt where most entrants are debut runners or horses with limited form — the pace scenario is murky and a speed horse with any kind of early foot could steal this.

win8YAZMINEML 2/1

YAZMINE sits at the top of our TrackWiz ratings (58.33) and draws the most favorable morning-line action at 2/1, suggesting the market agrees. She carries a 48 average speed figure — best in the field among horses who have raced — and trainer Javier Ruiz Ortiz knows how to place horses in maiden spots. In a wide-open field of first-timers and lightly raced maidens, YAZMINE's combination of experience and raw figures makes her the logical top choice.

place1AA EPIC BURNML 5/2

AA EPIC BURN is a TrackWiz top-play from the Nicole Ruggeri barn, sporting a 57.5 rating just a hair behind YAZMINE. She's a first-time starter, which adds mystery, but Ruggeri is clearly confident — the 5/2 morning line reflects stable support. First-out runners for sharp trainers in MSW sprints deserve respect, and EPIC BURN's rating suggests she belongs.

show6UPTOWN TRUMPTHESSML 7/2

UPTOWN TRUMPTHESS closes out the top three at 55.83 on the TrackWiz scale, and her 7/2 morning line puts her squarely in the value zone for exotic players. Another first-time starter, she's trained by Carlos A. Padilla, who runs a full barn here at Lone Star. With several debut runners in the field, UPTOWN TRUMPTHESS offers a solid place-show hedge in trifecta and exacta tickets.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

The free portion of today's card covers Races 1 through 3, and honestly it's a strong trio to kick things off. MON SAFIR opens the day in an Allowance Optional Claiming sprint at 7 furlongs — posted at 5/1 on the morning line with an 83.51 TrackWiz rating, that's the kind of overlay we love circling early. In Race 2, the maiden short field at 5½ furlongs gives us YAZMINE at 2/1, a race where pace shape should matter on a surface that's been consistent under these mild conditions. Then Leila Mae rolls into Race 3 with our highest free-race rating of the day at 87.08 — a 3/1 morning line in a 6½-furlong allowance that looks very playable.

With all three races on dirt and the track playing clean under the cloud cover, keep an eye on early pace — the 7-furlong and 6½-furlong distances both tend to reward horses who can settle and fire late at Lone Star, and our analysis reflects that in how we've ordered these contenders.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

8:29 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

The morning-line favorite isn't the TrackWiz top-rated horse here — LEILA MAE leads our numbers but carries the third-shortest odds, setting up a potential overlay situation worth attacking.

win6Leila MaeML 3/1

LEILA MAE posts an 87.08 TrackWiz rating — the highest in this allowance field by over nine points — and her 50% career win rate is nothing short of exceptional. Trainer Steven M. Asmussen is one of the most accomplished conditioners in the country, and Stewart Elliott gets the call from the outside post. The 3/1 morning line on a horse this dominant in the ratings is the kind of play we circle on our ticket — she looks like the real deal.

place5Tiz GraceML 8/5

TIZ GRACE is the morning-line favorite at 8/5 and brings a 40% career win percentage that backs up the public's confidence. Her 77.96 TrackWiz rating is second in the race, and trainer Justin R. Evans does solid work at Lone Star. If LEILA MAE wins this, TIZ GRACE looks like the most likely to follow her home given her consistent form and top-tier figures.

show4Whata MoonML 5/2

WHATA MOON rounds out our top three at a 69.38 rating and 5/2 on the morning line. Trainer Jayde J. Gelner also has MY BOY VANDER in the race, but WHATA MOON is the barn's stronger play based on the numbers. A 22% career win rate is respectable at the allowance level, and she makes plenty of sense as a show anchor in exacta and trifecta coverage.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 4

8:56 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

Two horses dominate the TrackWiz ratings in this turf maiden claiming mile — McGINNIS and BRAVITAS are separated by just 0.12 points at the top, setting up a fascinating duel between two closely matched debut or lightly raced runners.

win2McGinnisML 6/5

McGINNIS leads all horses in this field with an 88.66 TrackWiz rating and draws strong public support at 6/5 on the morning line. Trainer Rob Atras and jockey Geovanni Franco combine on the turf, where pedigree and training pattern often matter more than raw speed figures at this stage. He's a first-time starter, which always carries risk, but the market and our model are both pointing in the same direction.

place7BravitasML 2/1

BRAVITAS is essentially a dead heat with McGINNIS in the ratings — 88.54 versus 88.66 — and the Asmussen barn connection (trainer Steven M. Asmussen, jockey Erik Asmussen) adds a powerful family edge. The 2/1 morning line makes him an excellent place play, and honestly, if the turf suits BRAVITAS better on race day, this could easily flip. He's a legitimate contender to win outright.

show4Foolish MortalML 8/1

FOOLISH MORTAL sits well behind the top two at 60.34 but has a meaningful gap over the rest of the field. Danny Pish is a capable trainer on the turf, and Weston Hamilton takes the mount. At 8/1 on the morning line, FOOLISH MORTAL offers some real show value and deserves a spot in deeper exotic plays for anyone looking to beat the short-priced top pair.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 5

9:23 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 7 fur · Dirt

FIFTYSHADESOFNAUTI dominates the TrackWiz ratings in this maiden special weight sprint, but the second pick on our card — GET BACK JO JO — is nearly 30 points lower, meaning the favorite's main threat may come from a horse showing a small but real speed edge.

win1FiftyshadesofnautiML 6/5

FIFTYSHADESOFNAUTI sits atop our TrackWiz ratings at an impressive 89.71 — highest mark of any horse on the card today — and W. Bret Calhoun is one of the sharpest trainers at Lone Star when he sends one out as the morning-line favorite. The 6/5 price reflects deserved market confidence, and with Jose L. Alvarez aboard, the horse should get every chance to show what she can do in this maiden sprint. There's a large gap between this horse and everyone else in the field.

place8Get Back Jo JoML 9/5

GET BACK JO JO posts a 58.67 rating and the highest average speed figure in the field at 54 — a meaningful edge in a seven-furlong dirt sprint. Trainer Dick Cappellucci sends her out at 9/5 with Alfredo J. Juarez, Jr. in the irons, and the modest morning line suggests she's expected to compete seriously. As a place play, she represents the most logical threat to the top selection if pace pressure materializes.

show4Adelyn's RockingML 6/1

ADELYN'S ROCKING comes in at 51.67 on the TrackWiz scale and is listed at 6/1 on the morning line — solid value for show in a race where the top two take a lot of the early money. Trainer Mark N. Hibdon has her ready, and Rodolfo Guerra picks up the mount. In a maiden sprint where anything can happen in the early furlongs, she's a reasonable trifecta inclusion.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 6

9:50 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

This maiden special weight sprint for juveniles is remarkably bunched — the top five horses in our ratings are separated by fewer than four points, making this one of the more genuinely unpredictable races on the card.

win1Aransas PassML 5/2

ARANSAS PASS leads the TrackWiz ratings at 55.20 despite carrying a 5/2 morning line, suggesting the model sees more value than the odds indicate. The Steven M. Asmussen barn is a powerhouse at Lone Star, and Stewart Elliott is a seasoned hand who handles young horses well. In a field where everyone is closely bunched, having the top-rated horse from a leading trainer makes ARANSAS PASS our best play.

place4Princess PeachML 5/1

PRINCESS PEACH checks in at 53.33 on the TrackWiz scale with a 5/1 morning line — the best value of the top five horses in this race. Danny Pish trains her, and Lane J. Luzzi gets the call, a jockey-trainer combination that fires regularly at this meet. In a wide-open first-out field, PRINCESS PEACH at morning-line odds of 5/1 is the place value play we want in our exotics.

show2Mi AmigaML 2/1

MI AMIGA comes in as the second-shortest price at 2/1 despite ranking third in the TrackWiz model at 52.81. She's also from the Asmussen barn — Erik Asmussen aboard — and posts a 55 average speed figure, highest in the race among horses with recorded figures. The lower rating relative to her odds makes her more appealing as a show hedge than an outright win bet, but she clearly has talent.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 7

10:17 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

The morning-line favorite is NOT our top-rated horse on the turf mile — NEWS AT NINE checks in with a higher TrackWiz number than MISTER OMAHA despite going off at 8/1, creating a genuine value opportunity for players willing to go against the chalk.

win3News At NineML 8/1

NEWS AT NINE posts a 79.79 TrackWiz rating — tops in this allowance optional claiming field — yet the morning line has him at 8/1, well behind MISTER OMAHA's 2/1. Trainer W. Bret Calhoun is exceptionally sharp on the Lone Star turf, and Jose L. Alvarez picks up the mount. A 16% career win rate looks modest on the surface, but our model rates this horse significantly above his odds, making him our top value play of the afternoon.

place6Mister OmahaML 2/1

MISTER OMAHA brings a jaw-dropping 53% career win percentage to the gate — best in the field by a country mile — and trainer Joe S. Offolter clearly knows how to win races. At 2/1 on the morning line, he'll be well-supported, and while our model has him slightly behind NEWS AT NINE, a horse who wins more than half his starts deserves serious respect in any field. He's a rock-solid place play.

show5BenandonnerML 9/2

BENANDONNER sits at 66.48 in the TrackWiz ratings and brings a 30% career win percentage — third-best in the field. Wade Rarick trains him, and Richard E. Eramia gets the mount at 9/2 on the morning line. On a turf course where pace can set up differently than on dirt, BENANDONNER's profile as a potential mid-race mover makes him a smart show inclusion and a decent exotics piece.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 8

10:44 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

Two horses — WHISPERIN LIZ and TIFFANY TAP — tower over this maiden special weight sprint field in the TrackWiz ratings, with a massive drop-off to the rest of the pack, making this look like a two-horse race on paper.

win1Whisperin LizML 5/2

WHISPERIN LIZ leads this field with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating and draws Stewart Elliott, one of the more experienced pilots at this meet. Trainer Karen E. Jacks also has IMATEXASBEAUTY in the race, but the morning line makes clear WHISPERIN LIZ is the main event at 5/2. She posts a 54 average speed figure and is the only horse in the top tier with a recorded figure, giving her a meaningful edge in a maiden sprint.

place6Tiffany TapML 2/1

TIFFANY TAP is right on WHISPERIN LIZ's heels at 85.33 on the TrackWiz scale — a two-point gap between the top two horses in a field where everyone else is 20+ points lower. Geovanni Franco takes the call for trainer Shane Wilson, and the 2/1 morning line reflects genuine respect from the market. If TIFFANY TAP can get any kind of clean trip, she has the figures to win outright.

show8Gab's HumorML 6/1

GAB'S HUMOR is a notable step below the top two at 59.29, but there's a clear gap between her and the rest of the field. Lane J. Luzzi is aboard for trainer George R. Bryant, and the 6/1 morning line offers good show value on a horse who looks like the logical third choice. For players building trifectas, GAB'S HUMOR rounds out the ticket as the most defensible option among the remaining contenders.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

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Bottom line: Lone Star serves up a workable Friday card with genuine value scattered across all 8 races. Leila Mae is the top-rated free pick of the afternoon and MON SAFIR is the kind of morning-line price we never mind taking a swing at. For everything beyond Race 3 — including our full exotic strategy and premium best bets — subscribers have the complete breakdown ready to go at /pricing. Good luck out there.

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