Daily Picks

Lone Star Picks & Predictions — May 31, 2026

Sunday, May 31, 20269 racesLone Star

It's going to be a scorcher out at Lone Star Park today — 93°F under clear skies, and that baking Texas sun figures to keep the dirt strip lightning fast all afternoon. Nine races are on the board, mixing sprint and route action across both dirt and turf, and the variety in today's card gives every kind of bettor something to dig into.

The heat is worth watching. Turf courses can dry out quickly in conditions like these, which can shift pace dynamics and favor horses with tactical speed rather than deep closers. We'll be weaving that context into our analysis throughout the card. Three races are unlocked for everyone today, and our full premium breakdown covers all nine.

Best Bets

Race 1

6:35 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

A short five-furlong claiming sprint with a clear class standout at the top, but there's enough mid-tier clustering to make the exotics interesting if the favorite stumbles.

win4QuixxML 3/1

Quixx (4) is the standout here by TrackWiz rating — an 87.08 that towers over the rest of this field. A 22% career win rate is elite for this level, and at 3/1 on the morning line, trainer J.R. Caldwell and jockey Rene Diaz have a live horse with real credentials. In a five-furlong dash where front speed is critical, Quixx's average speed figure of 54 matches the best in the field and the rating gap over the next closest rival is substantial enough to inspire confidence.

place1SparklyML 2/1

Sparkly (1) draws the rail under Erik Asmussen for Hall of Fame trainer Steven M. Asmussen, a combination that always demands respect at any level. The 63.2 TrackWiz rating places her solidly second in class among this group, and while the 10% career win rate is modest, framing her as a place horse at 2/1 morning line makes her an easy inclusion in exacta wheels.

show7Miss SundazeML 10/1

Miss Sundaze (7) is the sneaky third option here at 10/1 on the morning line — outstanding value for a show ticket. An 18% career win rate is the second-best in this field, and her 54.1 TrackWiz rating edges out several horses who are listed at shorter odds. Trainer Isaiah Ortiz and jockey Alfredo J. Juarez Jr. are a familiar pairing at Lone Star, and double-digit morning line odds make her a worthwhile exotics include.

Race 2

7:02 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

An allowance sprint with a genuine pace battle brewing — the morning-line favorite is a speed horse, but the top TrackWiz rating belongs to a horse sitting a notch longer on the morning line, setting up a potential upset.

win1Curly's One ThingML 3/1

Curly's One Thing (1) carries the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 87.08, despite being second on the morning line at 3/1. Trainer Steven M. Asmussen is one of the winningest conditioners in North American racing, and veteran jockey Stewart Elliott brings plenty of experience over this strip. At 5.5 furlongs on dirt, the average speed figure of 54 is competitive, and the rating edge over even the 8/5 favorite is enough to make this our top selection.

place3Berry MischievousML 8/5

Berry Mischievous (3) is the morning-line favorite at 8/5 for good reason — a 27% career win rate is the best in the field and the top average speed figure of 56 suggests she's been running fast numbers. The TrackWiz rating of 82.75 is second only to our win pick, meaning she's almost certainly finishing in the money. Trainer J.R. Caldwell saddles both this horse and Passed Over, and Rene Diaz gets the call here — a clear signal of which one Caldwell prefers.

show6Six IronML 7/2

Six Iron (6) rounds out the top three at 7/2 on the morning line with a solid 77.59 TrackWiz rating. Trained by Mindy J. Willis — who also conditions stablemate Lazy Y Girvin — Six Iron draws Alfredo J. Juarez Jr. and brings an 18% career win rate and average speed of 55, keeping pace with the best in this field. At 7/2, she's a logical show play and fits comfortably in tri combinations.

Race 3

7:29 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A full field of 13 going a mile on turf in a claiming race — wide-open and chaotic, with several horses clustered between 60 and 70 on the TrackWiz scale and the top pick coming in at a very playable 5/1.

win13Expo CityML 5/1

Expo City (13) is the class of this field based on TrackWiz analysis — an 84.17 rating that stands well clear of the rest in a competitive 13-horse turf field. Trainer Dick Cappellucci has a knack with turf routers, and Floyd Wethey Jr. in the irons gives this horse a capable handler around two turns. At 5/1 on the morning line, the value is real — this rating advantage in a field this size often translates to a generous mutuel price.

place6HamlinML 8/5

Hamlin (6) is the morning-line favorite at 8/5 and brings a 70.55 TrackWiz rating that comfortably slots him second in the field. Trainer Robertino Diodoro is a multiple Eclipse Award winner with an outstanding record stretching horses to a mile, and Ramon A. Vazquez provides a steady hand up top. Even as a short-priced favorite, Hamlin is a logical place anchor in exactas and trifectas given his overall profile.

show10Uptono BuenaML 6/1

Uptono Buena (10) at 6/1 is a legitimate third option with a 69.56 TrackWiz rating that edges out several horses with much shorter morning lines. Trainer Kari Craddock gets Rodolfo Guerra aboard, and a 7% career win rate understates how competitive this horse has been in recent form. The one-mile turf distance suits closers, and Uptono Buena's profile screams late-running type who collects checks.

Our three free races set a nice table for the day. We open with Quixx in Race 1 — a claiming sprint at 5 furlongs where our TrackWiz model slots them in at 87 on the rating scale at a workable 3/1 morning line. Race 2 brings Curly's One Thing into an allowance at 5½ furlongs — same rating, same price, but a step up in class that makes the number even more meaningful. Then Race 3 takes us to the turf for a one-mile claiming route where Expo City catches our eye at 5/1 — that's the kind of overlay we love to flag early in a card before the public catches on.

The common thread through these three? All are surface-appropriate plays where pace scenarios set up cleanly, and the morning line prices suggest the market hasn't fully caught up to what our analysis is seeing. A good start to the afternoon.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

7:56 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

The morning-line favorite here isn't the highest-rated horse by TrackWiz metrics — Mucho Macho Cam owns the top rating despite being a big price, setting up a genuine value play against a short-priced public choice.

win8Mucho Macho CamML 8/1

Mucho Macho Cam (8) carries the top TrackWiz rating in this mile dirt claimer at 79.79 — and does so at 8/1 morning line odds, making this one of the more intriguing value plays on the card. Trainer Alan Love Sr. and jockey Rene Diaz have spotted this horse in a winnable spot, and while the 3% career win rate raises flags, the rating-to-odds discrepancy is the kind of angle TrackWiz analysis is built to uncover. For players willing to go against the morning line, this is the play.

place5Citizen BarrettML 6/1

Citizen Barrett (5) slots in comfortably as the second-best rating in the field at 73.13 and arrives at a very reasonable 6/1 morning line. Trainer Martin Manuel Valdez-Cabral sends out a horse with a 9% career win rate over a mile on dirt, and Alfredo J. Juarez Jr. gives Barrett a confident rider who knows Lone Star well. He's our place anchor and a strong exacta partner with the top pick.

show7StraightawayML 7/2

Straightaway (7) checks in at 66.25 on the TrackWiz scale — third-best in the field — and carries a 12% career win rate that suggests he converts at a decent clip when the conditions are right. Jose L. Alvarez picks up the mount for trainer Jaime Castellanos, and a 7/2 morning line puts Straightaway in a price range that makes him a realistic show option without sacrificing much value. A solid third wheel for trifecta plays.

Race 5

8:23 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Veronica's Delight dominates the TrackWiz ratings in this 6.5-furlong dirt claiming field, but Lottery Ticket and Arr Piratetreasure make this more than a one-horse show at fair prices.

win2Veronica's DelightML 8/5

Veronica's Delight (2) owns an 89.12 TrackWiz rating — the highest on today's card for non-stakes company — and goes as the 8/5 morning-line favorite. The average speed figure of 55 ties for the top mark in the field, and trainer Wade Rarick has Richard E. Eramia aboard, a jockey who knows how to rate a speed horse in a 6.5-furlong sprint. A 17% career win rate in what is typically a very competitive claiming division underscores her quality, and at 8/5, she's the right horse to build tickets around.

place3Lottery TicketML 5/1

Lottery Ticket (3) at 5/1 morning line is an excellent value play for the place slot with a 77.42 TrackWiz rating and an average speed figure of 55 that matches the favorite step for step. Trainer Domingo Chacaltana gets Rodolfo Guerra up, and a 15% career win rate shows this horse has been converting at a respectable clip. If Veronica's Delight draws out any kind of early pressure, Lottery Ticket is poised to pick up the pieces.

show7Arr PiratetreasureML 7/2

Arr Piratetreasure (7) gives trainer Steven M. Asmussen and jockey Erik Asmussen another live runner — this one at 7/2 with a 69.25 TrackWiz rating. The 13% career win rate is workmanlike but the Asmussen barn tends to show up ready to fire, and at 6.5 furlongs, there's enough distance for a stalker type to make a move on the leaders. A solid third option in trifectas.

Race 6

8:50 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

Five furlongs on turf with a 12-horse field and a legitimate top pick at a short price — Spring in Paris dominates the TrackWiz numbers, but Kiss My Dice at 8/1 makes this card worth playing deep.

win2Spring in ParisML 5/2

Spring in Paris (2) leads all horses in this race with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating and the top average speed figure in the field at 57 — a meaningful edge on a short five-furlong turf dash where early positioning is everything. Erik Asmussen has the call for trainer Steven M. Asmussen, and a 33% career win rate is exceptional at any level of racing. The 5/2 morning line is short but justified by the numbers — this looks like the right horse in the right race.

place10Kiss My DiceML 8/1

Kiss My Dice (10) is our value play at 8/1 morning line — a 78.9 TrackWiz rating that ranks second in this field is genuinely underpriced at those odds. Trainer J.R. Caldwell puts Rene Diaz aboard, and a 33% career win rate matches the top horses in this field. On a five-furlong turf sprint, a horse with a 54 average speed figure and that kind of win percentage can easily land in the top two regardless of the morning-line odds.

show3Charlie's a RockinML 10/1

Charlie's a Rockin (3) is an interesting third wheel at 10/1 with a 63.95 TrackWiz rating — the third-best in the field — and a 20% career win rate that holds up well. Trainer Mindy J. Willis sends out this runner with Stewart Elliott aboard, a combination that can be live at Lone Star. For trifecta players willing to spread a little, Charlie's a Rockin is a legitimate underneath option at a price.

Race 7

9:17 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

In a wide-open maiden claiming route at seven furlongs, two horses separate themselves at the top of the ratings — but with zero career wins across the entire field, anything can happen when maidens go a route.

win3SwiftliketaylorML 5/2

Swiftliketaylor (3) tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 in a maiden field where first-out or lightly raced horses often hold an edge. The 5/2 morning line reflects the morning-line maker's respect for this runner, and the Asmussen barn — trainer Steven M. Asmussen with jockey Erik Asmussen — is one of the most powerful connections in the country when they point a horse at a maiden claiming route. An average speed figure of 53 is competitive with the top of this group, and TrackWiz numbers this strong in a maiden field are hard to fade.

place5Purly Dialed InML 7/2

Purly Dialed In (5) sits at 82.71 on the TrackWiz scale — second only to the top pick — and goes at a very fair 7/2 morning line. Trainer J.R. Caldwell again pairs with Rene Diaz, a combination that has shown up with live runners throughout today's card. With an average speed figure of 53 and the second-highest rating in the field, Purly Dialed In figures to be a strong exacta companion to Swiftliketaylor.

show8Cuvee's BellaroseML 3/1

Cuvee's Bellarose (8) is a legitimate third option at 3/1 with a 61.95 TrackWiz rating and an average speed of 53. Trainer Danny Pish sends this one out with Deshawn L. Parker up, and the 3/1 morning line suggests the connections and morning-line maker view her as competitive with the top two. In a maiden route where pace can collapse late, a horse like Cuvee's Bellarose with a clean enough profile is a sensible trifecta closer.

Race 8

9:44 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

An 11-horse allowance sprint at 5.5 furlongs where Edge Chaser's TrackWiz rating stands out from the crowd, though Closing Speaker at 3/1 will press hard and create a pace scenario worth monitoring.

win7Edge ChaserML 4/1

Edge Chaser (7) posts an 85.62 TrackWiz rating — the top mark in this allowance field — and goes at a very playable 4/1 on the morning line. Trainer J.R. Caldwell once again pairs with Rene Diaz, arguably the most productive trainer-jockey combination working this card today. A 16% career win rate and 54 average speed figure are strong in this spot, and the rating gap over the rest of the field gives Edge Chaser a legitimate class edge.

place6Closing SpeakerML 3/1

Closing Speaker (6) is the morning-line second choice at 3/1 with a 78.08 TrackWiz rating that slots comfortably behind our top pick. Trainer W. Bret Calhoun is one of the better regional conditioners in the Southwest, and a 33% career win rate is elite for any field at any level. Jose L. Alvarez gets the mount, and at 5.5 furlongs, the pace scenario may set up perfectly for a horse with that kind of conversion rate.

show3AvalingML 5/2

Avaling (3) at 5/2 on the morning line is the public's third choice, and a 67.36 TrackWiz rating bears out that assessment. Trainer Jerenesto Torrez has Alfredo J. Juarez Jr. aboard, and while a 9% career win rate is modest, the average speed figure of 53 keeps Avaling competitive with the field. For trifecta players, Avaling is a logical underneath horse given the morning line and overall class profile.

Race 9

10:11 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Turf

The closing mile on turf features a pair of high-rated horses — La Fantastica and Ninth Island — with Maybe Dolcie lurking as a high-win-percentage closer who could spoil the party at a fair price.

win2La FantasticaML 7/2

La Fantastica (2) tops this allowance turf field with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating and goes at a solid 7/2 morning line under Erik Asmussen for trainer Steven M. Asmussen. While the 14% career win rate looks modest on paper, the Asmussen operation frequently improves horses into allowance spots, and the rating advantage over the deep field is meaningful. On a one-mile turf course where trip and positioning matter enormously, having a top-flight jockey-trainer combo is a significant edge.

place11Ninth IslandML 3/1

Ninth Island (11) is the morning-line second favorite at 3/1 with an 81.11 TrackWiz rating — and perhaps the most impressive career win rate in the field at 36%, trailing only Maybe Dolcie's 35% among the top picks. Trainer W. Bret Calhoun is reliable in allowance turf spots, and Jose L. Alvarez has the tactical awareness to position a horse perfectly around two turns. If La Fantastica runs into any trouble, Ninth Island will be right there.

show9Maybe DolcieML 4/1

Maybe Dolcie (9) is our show selection and a strong one — a 35% career win rate is extraordinary and the 76.47 TrackWiz rating keeps her firmly in the top tier of this field. Trainer Kari Craddock gets Deshawn L. Parker up at a 4/1 morning line, and an average speed figure of 54 matches the top competitors here. In a wide-open turf mile, a horse who wins more than a third of her starts doesn't need much to hit the board.

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Nine races, blazing heat, and a card that rewards sharp handicapping over blind chalk-following. Quixx, Curly's One Thing, and Expo City are your free best bets to get started — and Veronica's Delight headlining the premium card as our top-rated horse of the day is a name worth remembering. Full analysis, exotic ticket breakdowns, and pace maps for all nine races are waiting for subscribers. Good luck out there — and stay hydrated, because the horses aren't the only ones running in 93-degree heat today.

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