Lone Star Picks & Predictions — June 6, 2026

Stayed in for Half rates second in the field at 75.61 and also posts a 57 average speed — matching Initialize at the top of the raw numbers. Trainer Karen E. Jacks sends her out with Iram Vargas Diego in the irons, and a 20% career win rate gives her a legitimate profile. At 3/1, she's a solid place play and a natural partner with Initialize in exacta tickets.

Bad Beat Brian completes the Asmussen double-entry at 9/2 and rates third in the field at 61.07 with the same 57 average speed as the top two picks. Erik Asmussen rides for his father Steven, a family connection that carries real intent. As a third wheel in exotics, he's the horse you want if the pace scenario opens the door for a barn mate to close.

Forty Seven is the sneaky play in this race — rated 69.58, second only to Gun Fire in our model, despite going off at 15/1 on the morning line. David Cabrera rides for trainer Justin R. Evans, who does solid work at Lone Star. His average speed of 55 matches the top horses in the field, and if you're building exotics, Forty Seven as a place horse at that price is the kind of value that makes a trifecta ticket worth playing.

Outlaw Empire is the 2/1 morning-line favorite but rates only third in our model at 57.27 — which is why he drops to show in our analysis. W. Bret Calhoun is a capable trainer and Jose L. Alvarez is a trusted jockey, but the gap between his 57.27 rating and Gun Fire's 73.29 is too wide to ignore. He's a safe show bet for conservative players, but the better value is betting against him at the top.

Cat Gamer checks in at 74.38 on our ratings and owns the field's best career win percentage — 24% — which signals a horse who knows how to finish. David Cabrera rides for Justin R. Evans, a barn that consistently shows up at Lone Star. At 6/1, Cat Gamer is a legitimate place play for players who want some juice, and he slots naturally into exacta combinations with Tiburon.

Calibrate draws plenty of market support at 2/1 but rates only third in our model at 70.21. Trainer Robertino Diodoro is respected, and Geovanni Franco is a capable jockey, but the gap between Calibrate's rating and Tiburon's is notable. For conservative bettors, he makes sense as a show play — the market won't be wrong about his ability to hit the board, even if he's not our top horse.

Down Periscope is the most interesting angle in the race — rated 84.17, second only to our win pick, yet sitting at 5/1 on the morning line. Richard E. Eramia rides for Scott E. Young, and despite a 51 average speed (one of the lower figures among contenders), the overall model score suggests something worth buying at a price. In a maiden race where the field is largely unproven, a 5/1 place horse with this rating is legitimate value.

Magamak carries the most market support at 2/1 with trainer Steven M. Asmussen and Erik Asmussen in the irons — always a combo to respect. He rates 78.32, third in the field, and that barn presence alone keeps him firmly in the exotic conversation. At 2/1 for show, the return is minimal, but he's a safe third leg in a trifecta underneath Wasted Warrior and Down Periscope.

Brandyn is the most compelling angle in the race — he posts the field's best average speed figure at 57, a full two ticks above Fort Hood and most of the field, and rates 77.95, second highest in our model. Alfredo J. Juarez Jr. rides for trainer Martin Manuel Valdez-Cabral, and at 5/1, Brandyn offers genuine exacta and place value. If there's any pace meltdown up front, his superior raw speed figures make him a dangerous closer.

Son of a Bling rates 76.84, third in the field, and also posts a 55 average speed to match Fort Hood. Deshawn L. Parker rides for Justin R. Evans — a trainer who typically sends fit, well-placed horses to the gate. At 4/1 in the show slot, Son of a Bling is a natural exotics bridge between the top two selections and adds structure to any trifecta ticket.

Grind Jim rates 85.93, second only to Binary Code, and comes in at 7/2 — a meaningful price gap that creates real value on the place end. Alfredo J. Juarez Jr. rides for trainer Jaime Castellanos, and despite a 7% career win rate, the model has him well above the rest of this field. If Binary Code gets caught in traffic on the turf, Grind Jim is the horse most likely to be first to capitalize.

Win's Image represents the value show play at 4/1 with a 25% career win rate — the best in this field by a wide margin and a strong indicator of a horse who consistently runs well. Trainer Mindy J. Willis sends her out with Stewart Elliott, who is comfortable on the turf. She rates third in our model at 69.22, and that win percentage suggests she's competitive enough to land in the money even when not at her peak.

Worth Looking rates 85.62, just a whisker behind Axton, and goes off at 4/1 — a legitimate price for a horse who grades out this close to the top. Rene Diaz rides for J.R. Caldwell, and a 20% career win rate means this horse knows the winner's circle. If the pace develops favorably over seven furlongs, Worth Looking has the profile to be right there at the wire.

Awesome Road is the 2/1 morning-line chalk, which makes him a must-include in exotics even as the show selection. He rates third at 77.09 and posts a 55 average speed with a 25% career win rate — well-rounded credentials that explain the market confidence. Richard E. Eramia rides for trainer Martin Manuel Valdez-Cabral, and if either of the top two fails to fire, Awesome Road is primed to collect a share.

Bertani rates 84.51, just behind Brilliant Plan, and goes at 4/1 — a solid second choice on paper with a 28% career win rate and an average speed of 56 that matches the top selection. Alfredo J. Juarez Jr. rides for Todd W. Fincher, a trainer who places horses well at this level. As a place play, Bertani has the credentials to justify a straight place bet on his own merits, not just as a fallback.

Sweet Retreat is the sneaky show play at 12/1 — rating 73.96 and posting a 40% career win rate that is tied for second-best in the field. Erik Asmussen rides for his father Steven M. Asmussen, and this barn connection always carries intent. At that morning-line price, Sweet Retreat is a genuine overlay in the exotic pools and a natural third leg for trifecta players willing to take a stand.

Clarisit rates 83.18, second only to Eagle Vision, and goes off at 5/1 — a price that makes her genuinely attractive as a place play in her own right. Weston Hamilton rides for trainer Tina Rena Hurley, and Clarisit's average speed of 54 is solid for a 5-furlong turf sprint. If Eagle Vision has any trouble from her outside draw or in a contested pace scenario, Clarisit is the most likely horse to capitalize.

Shine Gem Shine slots in at 10/1 with a 57.20 rating — third in the field and a comfortable gap ahead of the rest of the pack. Iram Vargas Diego rides for trainer Carlos A. Padilla, and an average speed of 53 is workable in a maiden turf sprint. At double-digit odds, she's the kind of longshot show play that turns a winning trifecta from decent to genuinely rewarding.