Daily Picks

Lone Star Picks & Predictions — May 24, 2026

10 racesLone Star

Happy Sunday from Lone Star Park, where a 10-race card is on tap under partly cloudy skies and a warm 86°F. Conditions are about as good as it gets in North Texas this time of year — no rain in the picture, and the track should be playing fast and true on both the main dirt and the turf course.

Today's card has something for everyone. We've got a pair of turf miles sandwiched around competitive claiming and allowance spots, plus a handful of maiden races where early speed figures and workout patterns can give sharp players a real edge. TrackWiz analysis has broken down all 10 races, with three full free previews to get you started and seven premium deep-dives for subscribers who want the complete picture.

A few names to watch all afternoon: Brilliant Plan draws the eye in the allowance nightcap, and Bint Al Dandy looks like a serious contender on the turf. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Steve Asmussen's barn looks like it has the class edge in this opener, but a pair of sneaky contenders with solid TrackWiz ratings could keep things honest at 5½ furlongs on the dirt.

win4War SpiritML 9/2

War Spirit tops our TrackWiz ratings at 84.9 — the highest mark in this field by a clear margin — and ties Bolt Supremacy for the best average speed figure at 56. The Asmussen barn (trainer Steven M. Asmussen, jockey Erik Asmussen) is a tight family operation that knows how to spot a spot, and this claiming opener looks like exactly the right target. A 12% career win rate gives him a proven winning history, and at 9/2 on the morning line, he shapes up as a legitimate best-bet value.

place7StretchML 9/5

Stretch is the morning-line favorite at 9/5 and carries a 77.8 TrackWiz rating — second in the field — but a career win rate of zero is a red flag for a horse being bet down this short. Still, the rating demands respect for a board position, and Ramon Vazquez is a solid get-in-the-money pilot in this kind of company.

show3West of TownML 5/1

West of Town checks in with a 74.88 rating and a respectable 9% career win rate — the best winning percentage among the key contenders outside of War Spirit's connections. Weston Hamilton gets the call, and at 5/1 on the morning line, West of Town offers enough upside to anchor the exotics and slot comfortably in the show position.

Race 2

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A deep, competitive claiming mile on the dirt with legitimate ratings separation at the top — Avalon Girl leads the TrackWiz numbers, but Sense of Awe's eye-popping 40% career win rate makes this more than a one-horse show.

win6Avalon GirlML 2/1

Avalon Girl owns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 88.54 and backs it up with an 18% career win rate — the kind of consistent winner profile you love to see in a claiming mile. Iram Vargas Diego picks up the mount, and trainer Tristan Ashford puts a horse in here that grades out clearly ahead of the competition on our model. The 2/1 morning line is fair, but she's the most well-rounded horse in this field on paper.

place5Contessa's SongML 3/1

Contessa's Song rates second in the field at 85.48 and posts the highest average speed figure among our top three picks at 54. Alfredo J. Juarez Jr. is an experienced hand for trainer Martin Manuel Valdez-Cabral, and at 3/1 on the morning line, she's a natural pairing with Avalon Girl in exacta combinations.

show2Sense of AweML 9/2

Sense of Awe is the one that demands your attention for exotics — a 40% career win rate in this company is extraordinary and suggests a horse that knows how to hit the board. The 83.82 rating is right in the mix, and at 9/2, Ernesto Valdez-Jiminez brings an experienced rider to a horse that clearly has the ability to compete. Don't leave her off your tickets.

Race 3

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden special weight sprint over five furlongs — no career speed figures to lean on, so trainer patterns and workouts become the primary handicapping tools in an unpredictable opener.

win5Showgirl SwiftyML 3/1

Showgirl Swifty leads our TrackWiz ratings for this maiden field at 56.67 and draws the 3/1 morning-line tab — the shortest price among our top three picks in a race where everyone is unproven. Trainer Danny Pish is a known commodity at Lone Star and placing a horse here suggests confidence in her readiness. With no prior speed figures to evaluate in the field, our model's edge on Showgirl Swifty makes her the most trustworthy bet at the top.

place2Wicked StartML 7/2

Wicked Start comes in rated 55.83 — barely a tick behind Showgirl Swifty — and carries the blue-chip Asmussen barn credentials with Erik Asmussen in the irons and Steven M. Asmussen training. The 7/2 morning line is fair, and when the Asmussens team up in a maiden race, it's a trainer-jockey combo that demands respect at this level.

show7Creative LeapML 4/1

Creative Leap rounds out our top three at 55.0 for trainer Austin Gustafson, who also saddles Starlyft in this race — meaning he'll have a read on the pace scenario from both ends. Ramon Vazquez is one of the stronger jockeys on the Lone Star circuit, and at 4/1 on the morning line, Creative Leap is a legitimate show play and a useful inclusion on maiden exacta boxes.

Our three free races — Races 1, 2, and 3 — cover the early claiming action and the first maiden sprint of the day, and together they paint an interesting picture of how Lone Star's dirt is playing this afternoon. War Spirit opens the card at 9/2 morning line in a 5½-furlong claiming dash, and early pace is going to matter in a big way at that distance on what should be a lightning-fast surface. In Race 2, Avalon Girl stretches out to a mile as the 2/1 morning line choice — a classic setup for a closer if the field goes hard early. Rounding out the free card, Showgirl Swifty pops up at 3/1 in a 5-furlong maiden special weight sprint where first-time starters and lightly-raced horses deserve extra attention.

The common thread across all three: Lone Star's dirt has historically rewarded horses that can get clean position out of the gate, especially under warm, dry conditions like today. Don't overthink the early races — position and pace scenario are your best friends right now.

Full Card Analysis

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Bottom line on Sunday at Lone Star: the conditions are ideal, the card is varied, and there are legitimate value plays scattered from Race 1 through the nightcap. Start with War Spirit, Avalon Girl, and Showgirl Swifty on the free side, then let TrackWiz subscribers show you how the full card fits together. Good luck out there — and as always, bet smart.