Daily Picks

Lone Star Picks & Predictions — May 23, 2026

Saturday, May 23, 202610 racesLone Star

It's a 10-race Saturday afternoon at Lone Star Park and the clouds are keeping the temperature a manageable 83°F — not the scorching Texas heat that can flatten speed horses by the stretch. Conditions are comfortable, and with a mixed card that spans dirt sprints, a pair of 7½-furlong turf routes, and a one-mile closer, there's something here for every kind of bettor.

The card opens with maiden special weight action — always a puzzle — and works its way through a healthy slate of claiming company before wrapping up on the turf in Race 10. Our TrackWiz models have processed the full field and found some high-conviction spots alongside a few plays worth monitoring as the pools build before post.

Best Bets

Race 1

6:35 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Dirt

A maiden special weight mile on the dirt with a clear top-rated standout, but the morning line suggests the market sees a genuine three-horse battle at the top.

win2CountessML 2/1

Countess draws the eye immediately — her TrackWiz rating of 88.54 is the highest in the field by a meaningful margin, and the connections couldn't be stronger with trainer Steven M. Asmussen and jockey Erik Asmussen combining here. She's installed as the 2/1 morning line favorite, which feels right given the field quality, and her average speed figure of 52 is respectable for a first-level maiden. In a race where everyone is winless, the edge goes to pedigree, connections, and raw talent — Countess checks all three boxes.

place4Invasion GirlML 3/1

Invasion Girl is the second-highest rated horse in the field at 81.05 and goes postward at 3/1 — making her excellent insurance in the exacta. Trainer Kari Craddock sends her out with jockey Weston Hamilton, and her speed average of 53 is actually a tick better than the favorite's. If Countess encounters any trouble in a maiden mile, Invasion Girl has the raw numbers to capitalize.

show3Street WisdomML 5/2

Street Wisdom rounds out the top three at a 5/2 morning line, which reflects market respect for her TrackWiz rating of 65.86 — third-best in the field. Trainer Tristan Ashford keeps Iram Vargas Diego in the irons, and her average speed figure of 54 is the highest among the top trio. She's a worthy trifecta inclusion and could easily land in the exacta if the favorite underperforms.

Race 2

7:02 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A six-furlong allowance optional claiming sprint where the favorite holds a commanding rating edge, but a pair of intriguing value runners — including a trainer angle with the barn's second entry — could shake up the exotics.

win5BlingsterML 2/1

Blingster tops the TrackWiz ratings at 88.54 and draws the 2/1 morning line — she's the one to beat in this sprint. Trainer W. Bret Calhoun has her primed, and her career win rate of 27% is the second-best among the top contenders. Her average speed figure of 54 matches the pack but her overall profile points to a horse that's consistently near her peak.

place4Golly HollyML 6/1

Golly Holly is the value play in the place spot at 6/1 on the morning line — that price seems generous for a horse with a TrackWiz rating of 80.98, second-best in the field. She posts the highest average speed figure in the race at 55, suggesting she's been running faster than her odds might indicate. The Steven M. Asmussen and Erik Asmussen combination is a formidable one at Lone Star, and that barn rarely sends out unprepared horses.

show3She's CandifiedML 9/2

She's Candified slots in nicely at 9/2 with a TrackWiz rating of 70.47 and a career win percentage of 22% that shows she knows how to find the winner's circle. Her average speed figure of 54 keeps her competitive in a field where the top four horses are all running similar numbers. Trainer Scott E. Young and jockey Iram Vargas Diego give her a capable team, and at her price she's a solid trifecta piece.

Race 3

7:29 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Dirt

First-time starters converge in a five-furlong maiden special weight sprint — with no prior speed figures to lean on, trainer credentials and morning line movement become the primary handicapping tools.

win2Dear AdmiralML 3/1

Dear Admiral leads our analysis with the top TrackWiz rating of 56.67 in a genuinely competitive field of debut runners. Trainer Austin Gustafson sends him out with Iram Vargas Diego, and the 3/1 morning line suggests the market agrees this is the most likely winner. In a race where no horse has run before and speed figures are unavailable across the board, that rating edge — however slim — carries real weight.

place6Western SwagML 7/2

Western Swag sits just a hair behind at a 55.83 rating and goes off at 7/2, making him the most natural exacta complement to the top pick. Trainer Dick Cappellucci uses Alfredo J. Juarez Jr. in the irons — a reliable combination at this level. The razor-thin gap between the top two horses means the place slot feels like Western Swag's most likely outcome.

show5Huckleberry FinnML 9/2

Huckleberry Finn is rated 54.17 — third in the field — and the 9/2 morning line reflects a horse the market views as a live contender without being the favorite. Trainer Jayde J. Gelner has two horses in this race, which can sometimes indicate the barn has a clear runner-runner, but Huckleberry Finn's rating edges his stablemate Golden Rey. He's a reasonable trifecta anchor in what figures to be a wide-open debut sprint.

Three races are fully unlocked today: the opening maiden special weight mile (Race 1), the allowance optional claiming sprint in Race 2, and the five-furlong maiden special weight in Race 3. Our top-rated horse in Race 1 is Countess (morning line 2/1, TrackWiz rating 88.54) — she stands out in what looks like a wide-open maiden field going a route of ground on dirt. In Race 2, Blingster matches that same 88.54 rating at identical 2/1 odds in the allowance optional claiming sprint, suggesting our model sees a similarly dominant edge. Race 3 shifts to a five-furlong maiden dash where Dear Admiral pops up at 3/1 — though the rating of 56.67 is notably softer, signaling a more competitive and unpredictable spot that's worth approaching with some caution.

One thread connecting the free races: with the track playing under cloud cover and no rain in the forecast to soften things up, expect a firm, consistent dirt surface all afternoon. Speed should be respected, particularly in those shorter maiden trips — keep that in mind when you're looking at pace scenarios in Races 2 and 3.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

7:56 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 1/2 fur · Turf

A ten-horse turf claiming field at 7½ furlongs with a clearcut favorite on the numbers, but several mid-price horses post competitive speed figures that could make for an interesting exacta.

win9AmbiguousML 2/1

Ambiguous holds the top TrackWiz rating at 88.54 — the same ceiling figure we see on top horses across the card — and the 2/1 morning line reflects that dominance. Trainer Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez puts Ramon A. Vazquez up, and while his career win rate of 8% is modest, it's consistent with turf claimers who find their spots. His rating advantage over the second-best horse (Moneystrike at 79.08) is significant enough to feel comfortable at the top of tickets.

place6MoneystrikeML 3/1

Moneystrike sits second in the ratings at 79.08 and goes off at 3/1 — a natural complement to the favorite in the exacta. Trainer Darla S. Singh has Rodolfo Guerra in the irons, and the 6% career win rate isn't alarming for a horse competing in turf claiming company where the game is about hitting the board. His average speed figure of 53 is in line with the field.

show10SolevoML 5/1

Solevo makes for an interesting show play at 5/1 on the morning line with a 71.92 TrackWiz rating — third best in the field. The Steven M. Asmussen barn saddles Erik Asmussen, a combination that consistently fires at Lone Star, and his average speed figure of 54 is solid for this level. At 5/1 he offers genuine value in the trifecta if the top two run as expected.

Race 5

8:23 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

This six-and-a-half furlong dirt claimer features two horses with nearly identical top ratings locked in a head-to-head battle, setting up a pace scenario that could determine everything.

win5Awesome RoadML 7/5

Awesome Road holds a razor-thin rating edge at 87.82 — just a hundredth of a point ahead of Twelve Volt — and the 7/5 morning line makes her the clear public choice. Trainer Robertino Diodoro teams with Geovanni Franco, and her career win percentage of 20% stands out as the best among the top contenders in this field. Her average speed figure of 54 is competitive, and when a horse carries this kind of rating with a proven win percentage, the favorite price is usually justified.

place2Twelve VoltML 5/2

Twelve Volt is so close in ratings (87.81) that picking between these two top horses is essentially a coin flip on numbers alone — which makes the place slot the smart play for him at 5/2. Trainer Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez and jockey Ramon A. Vazquez form a solid combination, and Twelve Volt's career win rate of 16% shows consistency. If the pace sets up in his favor over the shorter turn, he could easily reverse the order.

show7MackvilleML 9/2

Mackville provides a solid third option at 9/2 with a 74.14 TrackWiz rating — a meaningful step below the top two but well clear of the rest of the field. Trainer Scott E. Young and Floyd Wethey Jr. combine here, and a 13% career win rate is respectable at the claiming level. Her average speed figure of 55 is the joint-highest in the field, which suggests she may be running faster than her rating implies — worth including in all trifecta combinations.

Race 6

8:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A tightly bunched five-and-a-half furlong dirt claimer where the ratings at the top are remarkably close — five horses within three points of each other — but one has a commanding favorite's price and a barn that fires in these spots.

win6Dr. SoulfireML 2/1

Dr. Soulfire tops the ratings at 88.54 and is the clear 2/1 morning line choice with Steven M. Asmussen training and Erik Asmussen riding — a powerful combination at Lone Star. While his career win rate of 14% might not wow you on paper, this race shapes up as a short-field sprint where his rating advantage is the largest of any horse in any race on the card versus the next competitor. His average speed figure of 55 matches the mid-tier of the field, but the connections alone make him hard to fade.

place8Bettys CashML 5/2

Bettys Cash has the highest TrackWiz rating among the non-favorite contenders at 61.70 and draws the 5/2 morning line — meaning the market sees her as the primary threat. Trainer Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez has Ramon A. Vazquez up, and her average speed figure of 55 matches several others in the field. In a race where the ratings cluster tightly, she's the most logical landing spot for the place.

show3PrisonerML 9/2

Prisoner is an intriguing show pick at 9/2 with a 39% career win percentage — by far the highest in the field — suggesting a horse who has been a consistent winner when conditions suit him. Trainer Justin R. Evans puts Deshawn L. Parker in the irons, and Prisoner's average speed figure of 56 is the best in the race. That combination of winning pedigree and top speed figure makes him a must-use in trifectas even if his overall rating of 61.59 slots him just outside the top two.

Race 7

9:17 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

A ten-horse maiden claiming sprint on the turf with a pair of well-supported first-timers dominating the morning line — though several longer-priced runners post speed figures that could complicate the outcome.

win3More CoffeeML 2/1

More Coffee draws the top TrackWiz rating at 88.54 and the 2/1 morning line with the powerful Asmussen barn — trainer Steven M. Asmussen and jockey Stewart Elliott giving this horse every advantage on debut. On a five-furlong turf sprint, speed out of the gate is critical, and having the premier connections at the track provides significant confidence in the win position. In maiden claiming turf races, trainer quality often bridges the gap between raw ability and execution.

place7Eagle VisionML 7/2

Eagle Vision makes an excellent place play at 7/2 — a rating of 84.92 is genuinely strong in a maiden field, and his average speed figure of 56 is the highest in the race. Trainer Allen C. Dupuy uses Alfredo J. Juarez Jr., a jockey who navigates the tight Lone Star turf course well. The speed figure advantage here is real and suggests Eagle Vision could easily reverse the order on pure ability.

show10Deadly BeautyML 3/1

Deadly Beauty rounds out the top three at 3/1 on the morning line, which reflects a rating of 75.73 — third-best in the field — and a solid average speed figure of 55. Trainer M. Brent Davidson has two entries in this race, which can indicate stable confidence in a particular runner, and Deadly Beauty draws Jose L. Alvarez for the ride. At 3/1 she's not offering huge overlay value, but she's a legitimate trifecta anchor.

Race 8

9:44 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

The six-and-a-half furlong dirt claimer is headlined by a fascinating pace duel setup — the morning line favorite isn't the top-rated horse, and the TrackWiz numbers point to a potential upset brewing.

win3Son of a BlingML 5/2

Son of a Bling leads the TrackWiz ratings at 86.38 despite going off at just 5/2 — making him a solid-priced top pick rather than an underlaid chalk. Trainer Justin R. Evans has Deshawn L. Parker up, and a career win percentage of 12% is consistent for a claimer at this level. His average speed figure of 55 matches the top tier of the field, and the fact that he's rated above the 2/1 morning line favorite Rocket Sanders is a flag worth noting.

place2Campfire CreedML 5/1

Campfire Creed has a compelling profile for the place at 5/1 — his career win rate of 27% is the highest in the race, suggesting this is a horse who regularly hits the board in similar company. Trainer Scott E. Young sends out Floyd Wethey Jr., and while his TrackWiz rating of 84.17 slots him second behind the top pick, he's a proven winner. At 5/1 he offers genuine value if you're constructing a trifecta around the top two.

show1Rocket SandersML 2/1

Rocket Sanders is the 2/1 morning line favorite but our analysis has him third in the ratings at 69.39 — a meaningful gap behind Son of a Bling and Campfire Creed. That's not a knock on the horse; he wins 16% of the time and trainer Martin Manuel Valdez-Cabral puts Alfredo J. Juarez Jr. in the irons. But at 2/1, fading him to the show spot while using the better-rated horses on top makes the most sense for value-conscious bettors.

Race 9

10:11 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Nine horses go a mile on the dirt in this claimer, and the ratings tell a clear story — three horses separate themselves from the rest of the field, creating a logical top-three trifecta structure with interesting prices in the middle.

win7Malibu RainML 3/1

Malibu Rain rates highest in the field at 87.08 and the 3/1 morning line offers genuine value for a horse of this caliber — she's not heavily overlaid, but she's not underlaid either. Trainer Tiffany Hernandez teams with Alfredo J. Juarez Jr., and a career win percentage of 22% is excellent for a claiming miler. Her average speed figure of 53 is consistent with the pace of this race, and her overall profile suggests a horse who runs her best at this distance.

place6Donegal FreedomML 4/1

Donegal Freedom is the logical place fill at 4/1 — a rating of 78.24 slots him solidly in the middle of the top tier, and trainer Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez and jockey Ramon A. Vazquez are among the most active combinations at Lone Star. His career win percentage of 21% mirrors Malibu Rain's consistency, and his 53 average speed figure fits the pace profile of a one-mile dirt race. At 4/1 he's a fair price and a natural exacta partner.

show1Cat GamerML 6/1

Cat Gamer is worth including in the show spot at 6/1 — his TrackWiz rating of 77.34 is third-best in the field, and he posts the highest average speed figure in the race at 56. Trainer Justin R. Evans sends out David Cabrera, and Cat Gamer's 21% career win rate shows he's no stranger to hitting the board. The speed figure advantage is meaningful and suggests he may outrun his morning line in a race where pace will be crucial.

Race 10

10:38 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 1/2 fur · Turf

The finale is a full eleven-horse turf claimer at 7½ furlongs where an eye-popping career win percentage and a strong rating make the favorite nearly impossible to oppose — but the second and third choices offer legitimate upside in the exotics.

win6Your CallML 5/2

Your Call is the standout of the entire night card in some respects — a 50% career win percentage is simply extraordinary at any level, and her TrackWiz rating of 87.81 confirms she belongs near the top. Trainer Robertino Diodoro sends out Geovanni Franco, and at 5/2 on the morning line, the market has correctly identified her as the one to beat. Her average speed figure of 55 is solid for the turf, and a horse who wins half her races doesn't need much pace scenario help to get the job done.

place10BelmiraML 3/1

Belmira is a strong place candidate at 3/1 with a rating of 83.37 — second in the field — and she brings an average speed figure of 53 to a turf route where tactical positioning matters. Trainer Mindy J. Willis sends Stewart Elliott out for the ride, and while her 11% career win percentage is modest compared to the top pick, she's rated high enough to suggest consistent competitiveness. At 3/1 she's a fair price for a horse expected to be chasing down the stretch.

show4HollywoodboulevardML 6/1

Hollywoodboulevard rounds out the trifecta at 6/1 with a rating of 80.39 — third-best in the race — and while his 10% career win rate is lower than the top competition, his average speed figure of 52 is in range for turf claimers going long. Trainer Matt Hebert and jockey Jose L. Alvarez have the horse in a suitable spot, and the 6/1 price represents legitimate value for a horse with a top-three rating in the field. He's a must-use in superfectas and a reasonable trifecta piece.

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Bottom line for today at Lone Star: Countess and Blingster are our marquee free plays, both carrying top TrackWiz ratings in races where our model sees a clear edge. The full card has plenty of angles to work with, especially on the turf, and our premium breakdown gives you everything you need to build smart tickets from Race 4 onward. Good luck out there — and as always, bet what you can afford to lose. Full analysis is waiting for subscribers at /pricing.

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