Lone Star Picks & Predictions — May 25, 2026

Mystic Lake is the 8/5 second choice on the morning line and rates second among TrackWiz selections at 79.92, backed by the lethal combination of Irad Ortiz, Jr. and trainer Saffie A. Joseph, Jr. — one of the most productive partnerships in American racing. A 52% career win percentage confirms this is no paper tiger, and the average speed figure of 55 matches Letta's Legacy stride for stride. Even if she can't quite overtake our top pick, Mystic Lake is the safest place ticket in the race.

Thermal comes in as the 6/5 morning line favorite with the highest average speed figure in the race at 57 — making the public case for this one easy to understand. Luis Saez rides for trainer John W. Sadler, a blue-chip combination that rarely shows up without a live horse. Despite rating third in our analysis at 67.55, the raw speed advantage is real and Thermal absolutely belongs on trifecta tickets.

Saint Benji rates a close second at 87.69 for trainer Justin R. Evans with Deshawn L. Parker up — and at 7/5 on the morning line, the public has actually installed this one as the favorite. A 25% career win percentage is solid for a claiming horse, and the average speed figure of 56 keeps Saint Benji right in the mix. If Man of Mischief leads, Saint Benji looks like the most likely press from behind.

Hela Forever sits a tier below the top two at a 53.61 rating but the 20% career win percentage is respectable for a claiming entry. Trainer Wade Rarick sends Richard E. Eramia out at 4/1 — the best price of the logical contenders — and the average speed figure of 56 matches Saint Benji's raw speed. With the top two likely to hook early, a closer type like Hela Forever could be primed to sweep up the pieces in the final furlong.

Usually Wrong is the 9/5 morning line favorite and for good reason — a 69% career win percentage is the single most impressive win rate on today's entire Lone Star card. Trainer Robertino Diodoro sends Ramon A. Vazquez out, a combo that runs well here, and the average speed figure of 58 ties for the field's best. Even if Jackman's Ride beats her, Usually Wrong's proven winning instinct keeps her squarely in the exacta.

Let's Go Mark is our show selection at 12/1 morning line odds — and that price makes this one a legitimate value add. A TrackWiz rating of 67.34 is the third-highest in the field, and the average speed figure of 57 is solid for this surface and distance. Trainer Danny Pish has Deshawn L. Parker up, and at double-digit odds with strong underlying metrics, Let's Go Mark is the type of horse that can balloon a trifecta payout if he finds clear running on the outside.

Augusta Melody rates second at 62.15 and carries the highest average speed figure of our top picks in this race at 57 — suggesting she brings genuine raw pace to the table. Trainer Robertino Diodoro connects with Ramon A. Vazquez here, a combination TrackWiz has highlighted multiple times today, and they're 6/1 on the morning line. With the top two horses priced favorably, Augusta Melody fits naturally in the place slot of exactas and trifectas.

Chasing Coyotes is a 15/1 shot on the morning line but rates third in the field at 55.69 with a 22% career win percentage — the form is better than the price suggests. Trainer Dick Cappellucci saddles Alfredo J. Juarez, Jr. here, the same trainer-jockey team we saw in Race 1, and they know this track well. At long odds with a meaningful ratings position, Chasing Coyotes is a sneaky trifecta inclusion that could turn a solid ticket into a big one.

Avery Place is a fascinating place play at 15/1 morning line odds for trainer Dick Cappellucci with Alfredo J. Juarez, Jr. up — a barn that has been active on this card. The TrackWiz rating of 69.58 ranks second in this six-horse field, and a career win percentage of 66% is the highest on today's entire card. If Desert Gate wins as expected, Avery Place at a massive overlay price makes for a potentially lucrative exacta payout.

Maximum Effort opens at 4/1 for trainer Steven M. Asmussen, who is omnipresent on this card and consistently finds ways to fill spots. The TrackWiz rating of 62.61 ranks third among six horses, and while this is a first-time starter or lightly raced runner based on the 0% career win figure, Asmussen knows how to place debut runners competitively. At 4/1, the show price is worth backing as part of a trifecta with the top two.

Lucky N Lawless brings a 33% career win percentage — the best in this field by a wide margin — and Robertino Diodoro sends Geovanni Franco out at 5/2 on the morning line. A TrackWiz rating of 77.36 ranks clearly second in a 14-horse field, and a 33% strike rate in a claiming turf route is the kind of form that keeps horses honest. This one fits naturally underneath Expo City and makes for a strong exacta combination.

Promissione at 8/1 is worth a close look for trainer Danny Pish with Weston Hamilton in the irons. A TrackWiz rating of 65.25 ranks third in this full field, and the average speed figure of 53 is consistent with the mid-tier of this turf mile. At 8/1, the price is right to include Promissione in trifectas — and in a 14-horse field, the show pool can produce excellent returns even when the top choices run as expected.

Booth rates an extremely close second at 78.37 for trainer Steven M. Asmussen, who saddles multiple runners tonight, with Erik Asmussen in the irons. A 43% career win percentage is among the best in this field and carries serious weight in a sprint stakes, and the average speed figure of 56 gives Booth a slight raw speed edge over our top pick. At 5/1, this is very possibly the best value play on the entire card — a horse with elite win percentages at a double-digit price in the morning.

Dancin for Gold brings a 57% career win percentage — the best in this 12-horse stakes field — for trainer Terry Eoff with Floyd Wethey Jr. aboard at 10/1. A TrackWiz rating of 76.88 ranks third and the average speed figure of 56 keeps pace with the top tier. That win percentage is simply too good to leave off trifecta tickets, and 10/1 morning line odds suggest the market may be underestimating this one's form cycle.

Miwa rates a very close second at 75.39 with the single most impressive average speed figure in the race at 60 — a meaningful raw speed advantage that Jose L. Ortiz can exploit for trainer Joe Sharp. At 3/1 on the morning line, there's genuine value in a horse who posts the field's fastest speed number. The 14% career win percentage is the only caveat, but the pure talent indicators make this one a strong place play.

Tizawiz at 12/1 is our show selection and represents one of the better price-to-rating values on tonight's card. A TrackWiz rating of 73.96 is third in this 10-horse turf stakes, and trainer W. Bret Calhoun sends Deshawn L. Parker out — a solid Lone Star combination. The 45% career win percentage is among the best in the race and suggests a horse that runs its best when conditions set up right — at 12/1, the trifecta math here is very attractive.

Neoequos rates second in the field at 82.71 with the lethal combination of Irad Ortiz, Jr. and Saffie A. Joseph, Jr. — two names that appear on the biggest races around the country for good reason. A 28% career win percentage and a 6/1 morning line make this a genuine overlay for the second-best horse in the race on our ratings. If Touchuponastar gets beat, Neoequos has the connections and the talent to be the one doing the beating.

Publisher rates third in the field at 72.62 for trainer Steven M. Asmussen, who has been a constant presence throughout tonight's card, with Erik Asmussen in the irons. An 18% career win percentage in stakes company is modest but workable, and 3/1 morning line odds make Publisher the most favorably priced of the three logical contenders. Include Publisher on all trifecta tickets — the Asmussen barn rarely sends out runners without a reason on a night this deep.