Hawthorne Picks & Predictions — July 5, 2026

Keen Gal is the public's choice at 8/5 but slots second in our model at 79.92 — still a legitimate contender, just not quite the value the tote board will imply. Trainer Eduardo Rodriguez runs a strong stable, and Alexander Bendezu is a capable handler at Hawthorne. She matches Wildwood Queen's career win rate at 20% and should be running at the wire in a race that figures to be honest early.

Sally's Suprise rates third in our model at 72.11 and offers real show value at a morning-line price of 9/2. Trainer Eduardo Rodriguez also conditions this filly, giving the barn two horses in the top three of our ratings — an interesting pattern to note. Her 20% career win rate matches the top two picks, and in a race where the pace figures to be honest, she's a live show horse and trifecta piece.

Honor Point is a fascinating place play at 6/1 — he actually posts a 60% career win rate, by far the highest in the entire race, and his TrackWiz rating of 82.71 is nearly identical to American Cause. Trainer Eduardo Rodriguez teams with Alexander Bendezu, and his average speed figure of 55 leads all horses in this field. The morning-line price is almost certainly a misprint-level overlay — watch for him to attract heavy late money.

Silver Quarters rounds out our ticket at 5/1 with a 68.72 TrackWiz rating and a 24% career win percentage that ranks among the field's best. Trainer Larry Rivelli and jockey Julio E. Felix give him a capable team, and his average speed of 53 keeps him competitive on the turf. At that price, he's a strong inclusion in exactas and trifectas as a third-place hedge.

Euclid Avenue checks in second in our ratings at 77.26 with a 19% career win percentage, and at 8/5 on the morning line, the public respects this horse too. Trainer Hugo Rodriguez sends him out with Frank Reyes, and his average speed of 52 matches the top horses in the field. He's the natural place play if you believe People Force handles the top and Euclid Avenue has enough to hold off the closers.

Rocket Hotshot rates third in our model at 65.33 with a 15% career win rate and goes off at 3/1 on the morning line. Emmanuel Giles and trainer Jose G. Rodriguez are a sharp combo in claiming races at Hawthorne, and Rocket Hotshot's speed figure of 52 keeps him in the conversation at this level. He rounds out the trifecta ticket nicely as a live show threat at a fair price.

Monsieur Candy is the morning-line favorite at 7/5 and rates a solid 76.63 in our model with a 20% career win percentage. The key number is his average speed figure of 58 — the highest in the entire field by two ticks, which is significant at five and a half furlongs where fractions matter. Trainer Larry Rivelli with E.T. Baird is a veteran combo, and he's a strong place play even if we think he's a touch short at top price.

Baby Boat rates 76.44 in our model — nearly identical to Monsieur Candy — with a 25% career win rate and a 56 average speed figure tied for second in the field. Trainer James P. DiVito sends him out at 5/2 on the morning line, and Alexander Bendezu in the irons gives him a top-shelf rider. He's our show play and a legitimate exacta threat if the pace scenario sets up for a closer.

Smooth Claret is our place play at 5/1 with a 75.34 TrackWiz rating and a 19% career win percentage. Trainer Joel Martinez keeps this horse in form, and Olaf Hernandez is a reliable hand at Hawthorne in route races. At a mile and seventy yards, horses that can rate behind the early speed and kick are dangerous, and Smooth Claret's profile fits that mold nicely as a place ticket at a fair price.

My Lady Slew rates third in our model at 69.58 with a 19% career win percentage and a 54 average speed figure that leads the field. The 5/2 morning-line price suggests the public likes her, and trainer Jose G. Rodriguez with Emmanuel Giles is a sharp claiming stable combo. Her speed advantage in the final fractions makes her a legitimate show and trifecta play.

Mr. Chivas rates second in our model at 79.37 with a solid 20% career win percentage and a 54 average speed figure. Trainer Omar Razvi deploys Ademar Santos, and this horse consistently places himself on the pace in sprint races. At 9/2 morning-line odds, he's a value play in the place position and rounds out a strong exacta pairing with Uncaptured Pulse.

Easy Fast rounds out the ticket at 5/2 on the morning line with a 73.6 TrackWiz rating and the field's best career win percentage at 23%. Trainer Joel Zawitz and jockey Alexander Bendezu are a capable tandem, and a 54 average speed figure keeps him in the thick of things on the front end. He's worth including in trifectas and may attract late sharp money given his win percentage.

Lolita J is our place play at 6/1 with a 65.33 TrackWiz rating — the second-best in this maiden field. Trainer Elias Lopez saddles her with Olaf Hernandez, and her 53 average speed figure is right in the mix. In maiden claiming routes, horses that have been around a few times and have improving figures are exactly the type to hit the board — and the 6/1 price makes her an excellent place and exacta value.

Ww Best of Times rates third in our model at 59.99 and matches Cloudy Lass with a 54 average speed figure — the best in the field. Trainer Elias Lopez also conditions this filly, giving the barn two horses in our top three, a pattern worth noting when building out tickets. At 6/1 on the morning line, she's a legitimate show and trifecta play in a maiden race where pace and class sorting are always unpredictable.

Even the Wind checks in second in our model at 80.3 with a 3/1 morning-line price and a career win rate of just 8% — but that can understate a horse who consistently runs into the money. Trainer Chris M. Block and jockey Luis Colon form a capable pairing in route races, and his 53 average speed figure keeps him competitive in the late stages. He's our place play in what figures to be a pace-honest mile-and-seventy-yard test.

Vitale rates a close third at 79.79 — barely a half-point behind Even the Wind — but goes off at 8/1 on the morning line, making him a legitimate value overlay in the show and trifecta spots. Trainer Pat Clay and Olaf Hernandez make a quiet but effective combination at this level, and his 53 average speed figure matches Even the Wind. The price discrepancy between his rating and morning line is the kind of gap TrackWiz analysis is built to find.