Hawthorne Picks & Predictions — July 12, 2026

Freedom Empire is the public's choice at 9/5 and backs that up with a 63.30 rating and a 6% career win rate — modest, but it's the only horse in the field with a measurable career win percentage. Frank Reyes takes the mount for Heriberto Villalobos, and the average speed figure of 54 ties for the top mark in the field. Even if Gray Mike proves the better horse, Freedom Empire has enough back class to land a piece.

Creating Havoc is the 7/5 morning-line co-favorite yet rates third in our model at 59.33 — a slight disconnect that makes the show slot a logical landing spot. Chris M. Block is one of the sharper trainers in this condition, and Luis H. Colon aboard keeps the horse in capable hands. If pace scenarios get messy early, a horse with Block's conditioning behind it often finds a way to close into the money.

Wave of Memories catches the eye as a place play at 6/1 despite owning the second-highest rating in the field at 66.76. Emmanuel Giles takes the mount for Ricky Lindsay, and a 52 average speed figure on dirt suggests this horse has shown enough in the past to compete at this level. The double-digit overlay versus Unkept Promises makes Wave of Memories a prime candidate to hit the board at a price.

Lilas Oak Tree rates 65.03 — just a tick behind Wave of Memories — and Julio E. Felix keeps the horse dangerous from post six. Joel Campbell's barn knows this circuit, and an average speed of 52 at six furlongs on dirt is respectable for a maiden claimer. In a wide-open bottom half of the field, Lilas Oak Tree's consistency in the ratings makes it a logical exotics anchor for the show slot.

Lost Sunset is the most intriguing piece of this race outside the favorite, carrying a 31% career win rate that leads the field and an average speed of 55 — just a tick below Blazing Affair's top mark. Victor Lara takes the mount for Frank J. Kirby at 6/1, which looks like genuine overlay value for a horse who wins almost a third of the time. If Blazing Affair encounters any trouble or races wide, Lost Sunset is the most likely beneficiary.

Devil rates 51.91 with a 14% career win rate and posts an average speed of 54 — respectable for a claiming sprint. Michele Boyce has been active with this horse, and Luis H. Colon in the irons keeps it competitive. At 9/5 on the morning line, there's not a ton of show value, but as an exacta underneath Blazing Affair or as a trifecta piece with Lost Sunset, Devil makes sense.

Cantarito is the second-best horse in the field by our numbers at 83.05, and Javier Tavares aboard for Heriberto Villalobos makes this a dangerous threat to the favorite. The 3/1 morning line suggests the market agrees it's a two-horse race, and a 7% career win rate understates the form — some horses win less often simply because they keep facing tougher fields. The place slot looks like a near lock if Street Style holds up.

Regained Power rates 66.76, a solid third-best in the field, and brings a 54 average speed figure that matches the top two. Eduardo Rodriguez's barn typically has its runners fit, and Johanis Aranguren is a capable tactical rider who can navigate early traffic from post four. At 9/2, Regained Power offers show value as the logical third wheel if the two stars at the top dominate the board.

Here's the value angle of the night: Fondre sits at 10/1 on the morning line yet rates 69.28 — the second-best figure in the field by a healthy margin. Luis H. Colon rides for David R. Reid, and an average speed of 55 is the field's second-highest mark. The public is sleeping on this horse, and if Spinning Glory wins at short odds, a 10/1 place price on Fondre could be the best return on the card.

Frankel Baby posts a 58.60 rating with a 23% career win rate — the second-best win percentage among contenders — and Julio E. Felix is a live rider in these sprint conditions. Trainer Brittany A. Vanden Berg has shown a knack for placing horses in competitive spots, and the 9/2 morning line on a horse with a strong win rate makes Frankel Baby a legitimate show-ticket anchor. In a six-horse turf sprint, multiple closers can get into the money.

A P Blazing Green is a solid place play at 4/1, rating 68.87 with an average speed of 53 for trainer Omar Razvi. Razvi also saddles Lone Return in this race, but A P Blazing Green's superior rating makes it the stable's de facto top contender for the place spot. Ademar Santos in the irons keeps the horse tactical, and second-best in the field on a short turf sprint is often good enough for a board finish.

Last Moon is the show play with real teeth — a 33% career win rate that absolutely leads this field, paired with a 68.0 TrackWiz rating that slots third-best overall. Alexander Bendezu rides for Eduardo Rodriguez, and a 55 average speed figure matches the co-leaders. The 9/2 morning line on a horse winning a third of its starts in any field is generous, and Last Moon should be a cornerstone of any trifecta ticket in Race 8.

Dixie Penny rates 73.0 with a 19% career win rate and a 55 average speed — matching the field's best pace numbers. Trainer Armando Hernandez runs both Dixie Penny and Icy River, meaning connections are splitting the field's two most popular horses. At 7/2, Dixie Penny offers fair value in the place spot, and a barn that sends two in the same race at this level typically has both fit and ready.

Icy River is the 2/1 morning-line favorite yet rates only 67.28 — third in our model behind Sharp Attack and Dixie Penny. Johanis Aranguren rides for the same Armando Hernandez barn as Dixie Penny, which adds the barn-mate dynamic to track. At a short price, Icy River's show value is limited, but as the public choice it's a reliable trifecta piece, and a 21% career win rate is nothing to dismiss.

Shakrevenge is an intriguing place play at 9/2 with a 69.45 rating and the highest average speed among the closer profile horses in the field. E.T. Baird gets the call for Joel Campbell, and the combination of a capable rider and a second-best rating makes this a legitimate threat to fill the place hole. In a seven-horse turf route, traffic can be a factor, and Shakrevenge's ability to rate off the pace gives it a tactical advantage.

Tizmeonemoretime comes in at 8/1 on the morning line with a 68.37 rating and the field's best average speed figure at 54 — a combination that signals a horse capable of outrunning its odds. Frank Reyes rides for Rigo Rosas, and a 4% career win rate likely understates this horse's form given the quality opposition it's faced. The 8/1 morning line on a horse with a top-three TrackWiz rating is a show value play worth including in multi-race wagers.

Mr. Sweets is the most logical place play in the field with a 66.81 rating and a 55 average speed figure — the best marks among the horses not named One Timer. Alexander Bendezu rides for Armando Hernandez, and a 13% career win rate is solid for a claiming turf sprinter at this level. At 8/1, the place overlay on Mr. Sweets is real, and if One Timer buries the field, someone has to finish second.

Gunny Sack is the show-ticket gem in Race 11 — a 33% career win rate that leads the entire field and a 63.03 rating that slots third in our model. Victor Lara rides for Frank J. Kirby, and at 10/1, a horse winning a third of its career starts is dramatically underpriced for a show wager. When the favorite is virtually unbeatable, building the rest of your ticket around a 33% winner at 10/1 is sharp handicapping.

Takeitaway rates 79.79 — very close to Red Moscato — and brings a 23% career win rate that stands as the field's second-best. Luis H. Colon rides for Michele Boyce, and an average speed of 55 is the best in the field. At 8/1 on the morning line, Takeitaway is a genuine overlay in the place spot, and a horse with a 23% career win rate going off at those odds is worth including across your ticket.

We Miss Arlington rates 62.87 with a 25% career win rate — the field's best win percentage — and Frank Reyes keeps the horse dangerous from post six. Eduardo Rodriguez is a consistent presence at Hawthorne, and a 25% career win rate in an allowance field is a serious number that the 5/1 morning line doesn't fully reflect. As a show play backing two higher-rated horses, We Miss Arlington offers a nice combination of proven winning ability and overlay value.

Silver Quarters earns a 76.61 rating with an excellent 24% career win rate — the best win percentage among the top contenders — and E.T. Baird gets the call for Larry Rivelli. Rivelli saddles two in this race, and Silver Quarters' win rate suggests this is a horse that consistently delivers. At 9/2, the place value is genuine for a horse whose career record says it belongs in the money more often than not.

Hilarious Affair is the show-side value play at 8/1 with a 76.24 rating that slots third in our model — and Frank Reyes takes the mount for Elias Lopez in a 1-1/16-mile turf route that rewards tactical riding. A 13% career win rate and a 54 average speed are workmanlike numbers for an optional claimer, and the 8/1 price on a horse rated this highly suggests the market is underestimating this runner. Tuck Hilarious Affair into your trifecta tickets as an overlay show piece.