Daily Picks

Hawthorne Picks & Predictions — July 12, 2026

Sunday, July 12, 202613 racesHawthorne

It's a beautiful Sunday at Hawthorne Race Course — clear skies, 85°F, and 13 races spread across both the main track and a busy turf course. Conditions look ideal for a big afternoon of racing, and our TrackWiz models have been busy breaking down every angle from pace scenarios to class drops.

Today's card leans heavily on turf action — five of the 13 races head to the lawn — which makes surface form and course records especially important. The dirt is expected to play fast under the heat, so front-runners on the main track deserve a long look. We've got two standout heavy favorites (Blazing Affair at 4/5 and One Timer at 2/5) and a handful of sneaky longshot angles that could make your exotics sing.

Three races are available free for everyone today. The first-timers and maiden field in Race 1 kicks things off, followed by a turf mile in Race 2 and a maiden claimer in Race 3. Then the paywall goes up — and trust us, the back half of this card is where the real value lives.

Best Bets

Race 1

6:15 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 4 1/2 fur · Dirt

All firsters in a short-field maiden sprint — with zero career starts across the board, this one comes down to workout patterns, connections, and raw TrackWiz ratings separating the contenders.

win1Liams FancyML 2/1

Liams Fancy draws the rail and carries the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 58.33, a meaningful edge in a race where separating maidens is an inexact science. Larry Rivelli has a strong reputation for debuting horses ready to fire, and the morning line of 2/1 reflects the market's respect for this entry. In a 4.5-furlong sprint with no pace history to lean on, gate sharpness and raw talent loom large — and our numbers say Liams Fancy brings both.

place3GreatwayML 7/2

Greatway comes in second on the TrackWiz ratings board at 55.83, a solid mark for a first-time starter tackling this short sprint. Trainer Michele Boyce saddles both Greatway and Rapid, which is worth noting — when a barn sends two in the same race, sharp money often tells you which one they prefer at post time. At 7/2 on the morning line, there's legitimate place value here if the top pick falters.

show4RapidML 9/2

Rapid, the other Boyce entry, rates 54.17 and gets Frank Reyes up — a capable hand in short fields. The 9/2 morning line on a barn mate of the place pick creates an interesting exacta/trifecta dynamic, and if Boyce's runners run 1-2, Rapid is the natural show anchor. Not the flashiest play on the card, but a sensible exotics inclusion.

Race 2

6:51 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A one-mile turf claimer with a clear two-horse battle at the top — Another Mystery and Man On Attack dominate the TrackWiz ratings by a wide margin, leaving the rest to fight for the show slot.

win4Another MysteryML 7/5

Another Mystery is the standout here, posting a field-best TrackWiz rating of 89.42 alongside a 25% career win rate — by far the strongest win percentage in the field. Trainer Chris M. Block's horse is the morning-line favorite at 7/5, and when a horse combines elite ratings with a proven win record, you pay attention. The one-mile turf trip suits closers, and with a 25% career strike rate, Another Mystery is doing this more often than not.

place3Man On AttackML 3/1

Man On Attack rates 83.62 — clearly the second-best number in the field — and the 3/1 morning line suggests sharp money sees a legitimate contender, not just a rabbit. Shane Childers has been competitive at Hawthorne, and Angel Ortega Stanley in the irons keeps this horse dangerous throughout the mile. If Another Mystery faces any traffic trouble on the turf, Man On Attack is poised to capitalize.

show1Sponge BathML 5/1

Sponge Bath brings a 19% career win rate to the table, the second-best in the field, and Eduardo Rodriguez's barn typically has these horses fit when they show up. The 5/1 morning line offers show value in a race where the top two may wage war up front, leaving a spot open for a fresher runner late. A 62.71 rating isn't flashy, but it's enough to sneak into the exotics.

Race 3

7:20 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A maiden claimer over six furlongs on dirt where Gray Mike's top rating conflicts with Freedom Empire's morning-line favoritism — the price discrepancy makes this one of the more intriguing betting puzzles on the card.

win4Gray MikeML 7/2

Gray Mike leads all horses in this field with a 73.06 TrackWiz rating — the highest by nearly 10 points over Freedom Empire — yet goes off at 7/2 on the morning line while Freedom Empire is the 9/5 chalk. That kind of ratings-to-odds divergence is exactly the spot TrackWiz analysis targets. Trainer Carlos Ramirez sends Javier Tavares up, and the six-furlong dirt distance looks like a solid fit for a horse whose numbers suggest he should be the one they're all chasing.

place2Freedom EmpireML 9/5

Freedom Empire is the public's choice at 9/5 and backs that up with a 63.30 rating and a 6% career win rate — modest, but it's the only horse in the field with a measurable career win percentage. Frank Reyes takes the mount for Heriberto Villalobos, and the average speed figure of 54 ties for the top mark in the field. Even if Gray Mike proves the better horse, Freedom Empire has enough back class to land a piece.

show5Creating HavocML 7/5

Creating Havoc is the 7/5 morning-line co-favorite yet rates third in our model at 59.33 — a slight disconnect that makes the show slot a logical landing spot. Chris M. Block is one of the sharper trainers in this condition, and Luis H. Colon aboard keeps the horse in capable hands. If pace scenarios get messy early, a horse with Block's conditioning behind it often finds a way to close into the money.

Our three free previews cover Races 1 through 3, and there's already plenty to sink your teeth into. Liams Fancy opens the card at 2/1 in a 4½-furlong maiden special weight on the dirt — a short sprint that should sort out quickly based on early speed. In Race 2, Another Mystery heads to the turf mile as a 7/5 morning-line favorite with a strong 89.42 TrackWiz rating, making this one of the more confident top picks of the early card. Gray Mike rounds out the free slate in Race 3 at 7/2 — that's a morning-line price our models think has value given his rating of 73.06 in a competitive maiden claiming field.

The through-line connecting these early races: speed figures and pace shape matter a lot today. On a fast dirt track under summer heat, horses who can control their own destiny on the front end are worth bumping up. Keep that in mind as you build your tickets.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

7:50 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Unkept Promises towers over this six-furlong maiden claimer with a dominant rating, but the value story hiding underneath involves a pair of 6/1 shots that could make the exotics very interesting.

win5Unkept PromisesML 8/5

Unkept Promises is the clear class of this field with an 89.12 TrackWiz rating — nearly 24 points clear of the next-best horse. Trainer Pedro J. Flores gets Frank Reyes, one of the busiest and most consistent riders at this meet. The 8/5 morning line is justifiably short for a maiden claimer, but when a horse's rating stands this far above the field, the question isn't whether to use them — it's how much of your ticket to build around them.

place1Wave of MemoriesML 6/1

Wave of Memories catches the eye as a place play at 6/1 despite owning the second-highest rating in the field at 66.76. Emmanuel Giles takes the mount for Ricky Lindsay, and a 52 average speed figure on dirt suggests this horse has shown enough in the past to compete at this level. The double-digit overlay versus Unkept Promises makes Wave of Memories a prime candidate to hit the board at a price.

show6Lilas Oak TreeML 5/1

Lilas Oak Tree rates 65.03 — just a tick behind Wave of Memories — and Julio E. Felix keeps the horse dangerous from post six. Joel Campbell's barn knows this circuit, and an average speed of 52 at six furlongs on dirt is respectable for a maiden claimer. In a wide-open bottom half of the field, Lilas Oak Tree's consistency in the ratings makes it a logical exotics anchor for the show slot.

Race 5

8:24 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Blazing Affair enters as a dominant favorite in a short six-furlong claiming field, but Lost Sunset's 31% career win rate hints that the real battle may be for second money.

win3Blazing AffairML 4/5

Blazing Affair is as close to a lock as you'll see in a claiming race — a 90.0 TrackWiz rating (the ceiling of our model), a 33% career win rate, and the field's best average speed figure at 56. Trainer Elias Lopez sends Frank Reyes up, and the 4/5 morning line says the market agrees completely. A horse putting up these numbers in a five-horse field isn't one you fade without serious justification.

place1Lost SunsetML 6/1

Lost Sunset is the most intriguing piece of this race outside the favorite, carrying a 31% career win rate that leads the field and an average speed of 55 — just a tick below Blazing Affair's top mark. Victor Lara takes the mount for Frank J. Kirby at 6/1, which looks like genuine overlay value for a horse who wins almost a third of the time. If Blazing Affair encounters any trouble or races wide, Lost Sunset is the most likely beneficiary.

show4DevilML 9/5

Devil rates 51.91 with a 14% career win rate and posts an average speed of 54 — respectable for a claiming sprint. Michele Boyce has been active with this horse, and Luis H. Colon in the irons keeps it competitive. At 9/5 on the morning line, there's not a ton of show value, but as an exacta underneath Blazing Affair or as a trifecta piece with Lost Sunset, Devil makes sense.

Race 6

8:58 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Street Style versus Cantarito shapes up as the main event in this six-furlong dirt claimer, with an 88-to-83 ratings gap suggesting a genuine two-horse race at the top — and legitimate value in the place hole.

win1Street StyleML 2/1

Street Style leads the field with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating and draws the rail post for Manny Perez — the same barn that saddles Game Santa, so connections are clearly confident in this one as the primary runner. Angel Ortega Stanley takes the mount, and the 2/1 morning line confirms Street Style is the one to beat. A 12% career win rate in a claiming field is modest, but the rating gap between Street Style and the rest is wide enough to make this a confident top selection.

place5CantaritoML 3/1

Cantarito is the second-best horse in the field by our numbers at 83.05, and Javier Tavares aboard for Heriberto Villalobos makes this a dangerous threat to the favorite. The 3/1 morning line suggests the market agrees it's a two-horse race, and a 7% career win rate understates the form — some horses win less often simply because they keep facing tougher fields. The place slot looks like a near lock if Street Style holds up.

show4Regained PowerML 9/2

Regained Power rates 66.76, a solid third-best in the field, and brings a 54 average speed figure that matches the top two. Eduardo Rodriguez's barn typically has its runners fit, and Johanis Aranguren is a capable tactical rider who can navigate early traffic from post four. At 9/2, Regained Power offers show value as the logical third wheel if the two stars at the top dominate the board.

Race 7

9:32 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

Spinning Glory is a class above this five-furlong turf field, but the real story is the monster price lurking in the place spot — Fondre at 10/1 has the speed figures to outrun that morning line.

win6Spinning GloryML 7/5

Spinning Glory is a standout in this spot — 89.42 TrackWiz rating, a 41% career win rate (easily the field's best), and an average speed figure of 56 that tops the chart. Larry Rivelli puts E.T. Baird up, a trusted combination at Hawthorne, and the 7/5 morning line is simply confirming what the data already says. A horse winning 41% of its races is a professional, and on a five-furlong turf sprint that favors early speed, Spinning Glory deserves full confidence.

place5FondreML 10/1

Here's the value angle of the night: Fondre sits at 10/1 on the morning line yet rates 69.28 — the second-best figure in the field by a healthy margin. Luis H. Colon rides for David R. Reid, and an average speed of 55 is the field's second-highest mark. The public is sleeping on this horse, and if Spinning Glory wins at short odds, a 10/1 place price on Fondre could be the best return on the card.

show2Frankel BabyML 9/2

Frankel Baby posts a 58.60 rating with a 23% career win rate — the second-best win percentage among contenders — and Julio E. Felix is a live rider in these sprint conditions. Trainer Brittany A. Vanden Berg has shown a knack for placing horses in competitive spots, and the 9/2 morning line on a horse with a strong win rate makes Frankel Baby a legitimate show-ticket anchor. In a six-horse turf sprint, multiple closers can get into the money.

Race 8

10:03 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

Bote enters this 5.5-furlong turf claimer as a heavy morning-line favorite backed by the field's dominant rating, but Last Moon's 33% career win rate at 9/2 makes the exacta landscape genuinely interesting.

win1BoteML 6/5

Bote owns a 89.71 TrackWiz rating — the best in the field — and an average speed figure of 55 that ties for the top mark. Frank Reyes takes the mount for John Haran, and the 6/5 morning line reflects a market that sees little competition here. A low 4% career win rate is the only wrinkle, but that can reflect tough competition or a lightly-raced profile rather than lack of ability — and the raw numbers say this horse is the best on paper.

place2A P Blazing GreenML 4/1

A P Blazing Green is a solid place play at 4/1, rating 68.87 with an average speed of 53 for trainer Omar Razvi. Razvi also saddles Lone Return in this race, but A P Blazing Green's superior rating makes it the stable's de facto top contender for the place spot. Ademar Santos in the irons keeps the horse tactical, and second-best in the field on a short turf sprint is often good enough for a board finish.

show6Last MoonML 9/2

Last Moon is the show play with real teeth — a 33% career win rate that absolutely leads this field, paired with a 68.0 TrackWiz rating that slots third-best overall. Alexander Bendezu rides for Eduardo Rodriguez, and a 55 average speed figure matches the co-leaders. The 9/2 morning line on a horse winning a third of its starts in any field is generous, and Last Moon should be a cornerstone of any trifecta ticket in Race 8.

Race 9

10:36 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A compact Starter Optional Claiming sprint where Sharp Attack's towering rating conflicts with a morning line that suggests the public prefers Icy River — creating a classic value opportunity for TrackWiz players.

win1Sharp AttackML 5/1

Sharp Attack tops this field with an 84.17 TrackWiz rating and a 23% career win rate — the second-best win percentage among contenders — yet goes off at 5/1 on the morning line. Luis H. Colon rides for Hugo Rodriguez, and an average speed of 55 is tied for the field's best. When our model's top-rated horse is also an overlay against the morning-line favorite, that's a strong double signal to take seriously.

place5Dixie PennyML 7/2

Dixie Penny rates 73.0 with a 19% career win rate and a 55 average speed — matching the field's best pace numbers. Trainer Armando Hernandez runs both Dixie Penny and Icy River, meaning connections are splitting the field's two most popular horses. At 7/2, Dixie Penny offers fair value in the place spot, and a barn that sends two in the same race at this level typically has both fit and ready.

show4Icy RiverML 2/1

Icy River is the 2/1 morning-line favorite yet rates only 67.28 — third in our model behind Sharp Attack and Dixie Penny. Johanis Aranguren rides for the same Armando Hernandez barn as Dixie Penny, which adds the barn-mate dynamic to track. At a short price, Icy River's show value is limited, but as the public choice it's a reliable trifecta piece, and a 21% career win rate is nothing to dismiss.

Race 10

11:07 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 1/2 fur · Turf

Rietta dominates the TrackWiz ratings in this 7.5-furlong turf claimer, but the depth of this seven-horse field and a pair of 68-rated closers make the exotics worth building carefully.

win1RiettaML 9/5

Rietta earns an 88.83 TrackWiz rating — more than 19 points clear of the next-best horse — and a 12% career win rate on a turf route that should suit her pace profile. Luis H. Colon rides for Michele Boyce at a 9/5 morning line that reflects the market's confidence. The 7.5-furlong turf trip rewards horses who rate off the pace and have the stamina to sustain — and Rietta's rating says she's built for exactly this scenario.

place2ShakrevengeML 9/2

Shakrevenge is an intriguing place play at 9/2 with a 69.45 rating and the highest average speed among the closer profile horses in the field. E.T. Baird gets the call for Joel Campbell, and the combination of a capable rider and a second-best rating makes this a legitimate threat to fill the place hole. In a seven-horse turf route, traffic can be a factor, and Shakrevenge's ability to rate off the pace gives it a tactical advantage.

show7TizmeonemoretimeML 8/1

Tizmeonemoretime comes in at 8/1 on the morning line with a 68.37 rating and the field's best average speed figure at 54 — a combination that signals a horse capable of outrunning its odds. Frank Reyes rides for Rigo Rosas, and a 4% career win rate likely understates this horse's form given the quality opposition it's faced. The 8/1 morning line on a horse with a top-three TrackWiz rating is a show value play worth including in multi-race wagers.

Race 11

11:35 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

One Timer is one of the most dominant favorites on the entire card — a 2/5 morning-line shot in a turf sprint where the ratings gap is enormous, making the real contest the battle for second and third money.

win6One TimerML 2/5

One Timer is simply a class apart here: a perfect 90.0 TrackWiz rating, a 30% career win rate, and an average speed figure of 57 — the highest of any horse on today's card across all 13 races. Larry Rivelli and E.T. Baird are a sharp combination, and the 2/5 morning line says the market has already priced this as a near-certainty. In an eight-horse turf sprint with this kind of ratings advantage, fading One Timer would require extraordinary circumstances.

place3Mr. SweetsML 8/1

Mr. Sweets is the most logical place play in the field with a 66.81 rating and a 55 average speed figure — the best marks among the horses not named One Timer. Alexander Bendezu rides for Armando Hernandez, and a 13% career win rate is solid for a claiming turf sprinter at this level. At 8/1, the place overlay on Mr. Sweets is real, and if One Timer buries the field, someone has to finish second.

show1Gunny SackML 10/1

Gunny Sack is the show-ticket gem in Race 11 — a 33% career win rate that leads the entire field and a 63.03 rating that slots third in our model. Victor Lara rides for Frank J. Kirby, and at 10/1, a horse winning a third of its career starts is dramatically underpriced for a show wager. When the favorite is virtually unbeatable, building the rest of your ticket around a 33% winner at 10/1 is sharp handicapping.

Race 12

12:01 AM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

The nightcap allowance is a legitimate ratings battle between Red Moscato and Takeitaway — with a 9/2 overlay on the top-rated horse making this one of the card's best potential value plays.

win1Red MoscatoML 9/2

Red Moscato leads this allowance field with an 82.29 TrackWiz rating and goes off at 9/2 — a substantial overlay for the top-rated horse in an allowance field where you'd normally expect it to be the chalk. Trainer Armando Hernandez sends Johanis Aranguren up, and a 9% career win rate in allowance company is competitive. The combination of best rating plus generous morning line is exactly the profile TrackWiz analysis targets as a value win play.

place3TakeitawayML 8/1

Takeitaway rates 79.79 — very close to Red Moscato — and brings a 23% career win rate that stands as the field's second-best. Luis H. Colon rides for Michele Boyce, and an average speed of 55 is the best in the field. At 8/1 on the morning line, Takeitaway is a genuine overlay in the place spot, and a horse with a 23% career win rate going off at those odds is worth including across your ticket.

show6We Miss ArlingtonML 5/1

We Miss Arlington rates 62.87 with a 25% career win rate — the field's best win percentage — and Frank Reyes keeps the horse dangerous from post six. Eduardo Rodriguez is a consistent presence at Hawthorne, and a 25% career win rate in an allowance field is a serious number that the 5/1 morning line doesn't fully reflect. As a show play backing two higher-rated horses, We Miss Arlington offers a nice combination of proven winning ability and overlay value.

Race 13

12:26 AM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

The final race of the night is a Starter Optional Claiming route on the turf with genuine depth — Even the Wind leads our ratings but faces legitimate challenges from Silver Quarters and Hilarious Affair in what could be the most competitive race on the card.

win7Even the WindML 7/2

Even the Wind tops our model at 86.35 for trainer Chris M. Block, with Alexander Bendezu aboard at a very fair 7/2 morning line. Block is one of the sharper conditioners on the grounds and has multiple horses in this race — a sign the barn is confident, and Even the Wind is the standard-bearer. At 1-1/16 miles on turf, a horse with an average speed of 53 and the field's top rating has the profile of a closer who can pick up the pieces late.

place4Silver QuartersML 9/2

Silver Quarters earns a 76.61 rating with an excellent 24% career win rate — the best win percentage among the top contenders — and E.T. Baird gets the call for Larry Rivelli. Rivelli saddles two in this race, and Silver Quarters' win rate suggests this is a horse that consistently delivers. At 9/2, the place value is genuine for a horse whose career record says it belongs in the money more often than not.

show1Hilarious AffairML 8/1

Hilarious Affair is the show-side value play at 8/1 with a 76.24 rating that slots third in our model — and Frank Reyes takes the mount for Elias Lopez in a 1-1/16-mile turf route that rewards tactical riding. A 13% career win rate and a 54 average speed are workmanlike numbers for an optional claimer, and the 8/1 price on a horse rated this highly suggests the market is underestimating this runner. Tuck Hilarious Affair into your trifecta tickets as an overlay show piece.

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Hawthorne is dealing a 13-race card with loaded turf action, two dominant chalk plays, and at least a couple of spots where our models see real overlay potential. Start with the free picks on Liams Fancy, Another Mystery, and Gray Mike, then consider going premium for the full-card edge — especially with the turf sequences and that Sharp Attack longshot angle in Race 9. Good luck out there, and as always, bet smart.

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