Hawthorne Picks & Predictions — June 28, 2026
It's a warm Sunday at Hawthorne — 85 degrees under partly cloudy skies — and the track is serving up a seven-race card that leans heavily on the grass. Four of the seven races are carded for the turf, so surface read is going to be a big part of how you separate contenders from also-rans today.
The dirt races are where the chalk lives — Race 3 and Race 6 both feature short-priced favorites with strong TrackWiz ratings — but the turf routes and sprints are loaded with value if you're willing to dig. We've got a 6/1 morning-line shot in Race 2 that our ratings genuinely like, and a maiden turf sprint in Race 4 that could produce a big price winner.
Three races are open to all readers. The full four-race premium breakdown — including multi-race wager strategies and pace projections — is available to TrackWiz subscribers.
Best Bets
Race 1
Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf
The morning line favorite gets little respect from TrackWiz here — our ratings flip the script in this one-mile turf allowance optional claimer, with a 9/2 shot topping the board.
Coach Jimi D lands at the top of our ratings with an 84.9 — easily the highest mark in this field despite going off at 9/2 on the morning line. Trainer James P. DiVito puts him in a spot where the price should be attractive, and the horse matches the top average speed figure in the field at 55. When your top-rated horse is also one of the overlays, that's the kind of alignment you look for on the turf.
Journey brings a 30% career win rate into this spot, which is the best in the field by a wide margin and hard to ignore at 4/1. Trainer Michele Boyce has her pointed at a mile on the turf, a surface and distance that suits closers in Allowance Optional Claiming company. At those odds, she's a strong candidate to hit the board even if she can't run down the top pick.
Protonic Power slots in at 5/2 on the morning line with a TrackWiz rating of 62.59, sitting right in the middle of this pack in terms of figures but offering solid exacta/trifecta utility. Trainer Armando Hernandez sends him out at a playable price, and his average speed figure of 53 is consistent with the type of effort needed to secure a show check on this surface.
Race 2
Allowance · 7 1/2 fur · Turf
The morning line favorite gets outgunned by our ratings in this 7.5-furlong turf allowance — the real standout is lurking at 6/1, and the field is more competitive than the odds board suggests.
Ciao Tommaso tops our ratings at 82.71 despite being offered at 6/1 on the morning line — that gap between public perception and model confidence is exactly the kind of value angle TrackWiz is built to find. Trainer Brian Cook sends him out with Olaf Hernandez up, and his average speed figure of 55 ties for the best in the field. In a race where the morning line chalk (Man On Attack at 2/1) checks in third on our board, Ciao Tommaso is the play.
Ketchum's 50% career win rate is genuinely eye-catching — no other horse in this field is close to that number, and Chris M. Block is a trainer who knows how to put his horses in winning positions. His average speed figure of 56 is the best in the race, and at 3/1 he represents solid place value in a competitive allowance field on the turf.
Man On Attack is the morning line favorite at 2/1, but our rating of 72.51 slots him third — which is still good enough for a show ticket in this field. Trainer Shane Childers has him positioned well at a distance where pace can be controlled, and he's a horse whose form at this class level warrants board consideration even if the win odds don't excite.
Race 3
Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt
Short-priced claiming standouts dominate this 1 1/16-mile dirt affair — Coni's Coup opens at 4/5 and our ratings back up every penny of that favoritism, but there's a sneaky show play hiding at double digits.
Coni's Coup earns a 90.0 TrackWiz rating — a perfect score at the top of our scale — and gets the ball at 4/5 on the morning line, meaning the public and the model are in total agreement here. Trainer Chris M. Block deploys him with Olaf Hernandez in the irons, one of the stronger combinations on the Hawthorne circuit. In a claiming field where no other horse cracks 85 on our board, this is as close to a standout as you'll see.
People Force rates second in the field at 84.77 and brings a 19% career win rate — the highest mark among the horses who figure to be in contention here. Luis H. Colon rides for Francisco Villa, and at 5/2 on the morning line there's legitimate place value if you're looking to build around the chalk in exactas. He'll need to stay close to Coni's Coup early to have a shot at the board.
New Year Surprise is a double-digit price at 10/1 but checks in third on our ratings at 50.73 in a thin five-horse field. Trainer Heriberto Villalobos doubles back with a second runner in the race, which can sometimes indicate confidence in a live longshot — and in a field this small, getting 10/1 for a show ticket has plenty of overlay appeal. Worth a toss in trifecta wheels.
Our free picks span all three surface types and give you a solid foundation for the afternoon. Race 1 kicks things off on the turf going one mile, where Coach Jimi D (9/2 ML, 84.9 rating) profiles as a legitimate overlay if the morning line holds. Race 2 is where we get aggressive — Ciao Tommaso opens at 6/1 in an allowance turf sprint, and an 82.71 TrackWiz rating in a field that may lack a dominant early pace presence makes that price very attractive. Don't sleep on him.
Race 3 is the anchor of the free card. Coni's Coup carries a 90.0 rating — the highest on the entire card — and goes off as the 4/5 favorite on dirt going 1 1/16 miles. That's a big number for a favorite, and it reflects just how much our model separates this horse from the field. When the rating and the morning line agree, you listen.
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Bottom line: Coni's Coup is the bet of the day on paper, but Ciao Tommaso at 6/1 in Race 2 is the kind of value play that wins your afternoon. The turf is the story today at Hawthorne, and our free picks give you a strong start. For pace scenarios, exotic ticket breakdowns, and our full take on Races 4–7, subscribe to TrackWiz Premium and get the complete edge before post time.