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Hawthorne Picks & Predictions — June 28, 2026

June 28, 20267 racesAll Hawthorne picks

This card ran on June 28, 2026.

Best bets at Hawthorne, June 28, 2026

Race 12Coach Jimi DML 9/23:41 PM EDT

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It's a warm Sunday at Hawthorne — 85 degrees under partly cloudy skies — and the track is serving up a seven-race card that leans heavily on the grass. Four of the seven races are carded for the turf, so surface read is going to be a big part of how you separate contenders from also-rans today.

The dirt races are where the chalk lives — Race 3 and Race 6 both feature short-priced favorites with strong TrackWiz ratings — but the turf routes and sprints are loaded with value if you're willing to dig. We've got a 6/1 morning-line shot in Race 2 that our ratings genuinely like, and a maiden turf sprint in Race 4 that could produce a big price winner.

Three races are open to all readers. The full four-race premium breakdown — including multi-race wager strategies and pace projections — is available to TrackWiz subscribers.

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Race 1

3:41 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

The morning line favorite gets little respect from TrackWiz here — our ratings flip the script in this one-mile turf allowance optional claimer, with a 9/2 shot topping the board.

win2Coach Jimi DML 9/2

Coach Jimi D lands at the top of our ratings with an 84.9 — easily the highest mark in this field despite going off at 9/2 on the morning line. Trainer James P. DiVito puts him in a spot where the price should be attractive, and the horse matches the top average speed figure in the field at 55. When your top-rated horse is also one of the overlays, that's the kind of alignment you look for on the turf.

place3JourneyML 4/1

Journey brings a 30% career win rate into this spot, which is the best in the field by a wide margin and hard to ignore at 4/1. Trainer Michele Boyce has her pointed at a mile on the turf, a surface and distance that suits closers in Allowance Optional Claiming company. At those odds, she's a strong candidate to hit the board even if she can't run down the top pick.

show5Protonic PowerML 5/2

Protonic Power slots in at 5/2 on the morning line with a TrackWiz rating of 62.59, sitting right in the middle of this pack in terms of figures but offering solid exacta/trifecta utility. Trainer Armando Hernandez sends him out at a playable price, and his average speed figure of 53 is consistent with the type of effort needed to secure a show check on this surface.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

4:17 PM EDT

Allowance · 7 1/2 fur · Turf

The morning line favorite gets outgunned by our ratings in this 7.5-furlong turf allowance — the real standout is lurking at 6/1, and the field is more competitive than the odds board suggests.

win1Ciao TommasoML 6/1

Ciao Tommaso tops our ratings at 82.71 despite being offered at 6/1 on the morning line — that gap between public perception and model confidence is exactly the kind of value angle TrackWiz is built to find. Trainer Brian Cook sends him out with Olaf Hernandez up, and his average speed figure of 55 ties for the best in the field. In a race where the morning line chalk (Man On Attack at 2/1) checks in third on our board, Ciao Tommaso is the play.

place2KetchumML 3/1

Ketchum's 50% career win rate is genuinely eye-catching — no other horse in this field is close to that number, and Chris M. Block is a trainer who knows how to put his horses in winning positions. His average speed figure of 56 is the best in the race, and at 3/1 he represents solid place value in a competitive allowance field on the turf.

show6Man On AttackML 2/1

Man On Attack is the morning line favorite at 2/1, but our rating of 72.51 slots him third — which is still good enough for a show ticket in this field. Trainer Shane Childers has him positioned well at a distance where pace can be controlled, and he's a horse whose form at this class level warrants board consideration even if the win odds don't excite.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Our free picks span all three surface types and give you a solid foundation for the afternoon. Race 1 kicks things off on the turf going one mile, where Coach Jimi D (9/2 ML, 84.9 rating) profiles as a legitimate overlay if the morning line holds. Race 2 is where we get aggressive — Ciao Tommaso opens at 6/1 in an allowance turf sprint, and an 82.71 TrackWiz rating in a field that may lack a dominant early pace presence makes that price very attractive. Don't sleep on him.

Race 3 is the anchor of the free card. Coni's Coup carries a 90.0 rating — the highest on the entire card — and goes off as the 4/5 favorite on dirt going 1 1/16 miles. That's a big number for a favorite, and it reflects just how much our model separates this horse from the field. When the rating and the morning line agree, you listen.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

4:49 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Short-priced claiming standouts dominate this 1 1/16-mile dirt affair — Coni's Coup opens at 4/5 and our ratings back up every penny of that favoritism, but there's a sneaky show play hiding at double digits.

win3Coni's CoupML 4/5

Coni's Coup earns a 90.0 TrackWiz rating — a perfect score at the top of our scale — and gets the ball at 4/5 on the morning line, meaning the public and the model are in total agreement here. Trainer Chris M. Block deploys him with Olaf Hernandez in the irons, one of the stronger combinations on the Hawthorne circuit. In a claiming field where no other horse cracks 85 on our board, this is as close to a standout as you'll see.

place4People ForceML 5/2

People Force rates second in the field at 84.77 and brings a 19% career win rate — the highest mark among the horses who figure to be in contention here. Luis H. Colon rides for Francisco Villa, and at 5/2 on the morning line there's legitimate place value if you're looking to build around the chalk in exactas. He'll need to stay close to Coni's Coup early to have a shot at the board.

show2New Year SurpriseML 10/1

New Year Surprise is a double-digit price at 10/1 but checks in third on our ratings at 50.73 in a thin five-horse field. Trainer Heriberto Villalobos doubles back with a second runner in the race, which can sometimes indicate confidence in a live longshot — and in a field this small, getting 10/1 for a show ticket has plenty of overlay appeal. Worth a toss in trifecta wheels.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

Race 4

5:22 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

Maiden Special Weight on the turf at 5.5 furlongs — the morning line favorite doesn't lead our ratings, setting up an intriguing top-of-the-card debate between two lightly raced youngsters.

win3This Beau KnowsML 7/2

This Beau Knows leads our ratings at 86.35, edging out the morning line favorite Rockfest despite going off at the more generous price of 7/2. Trainer Chris M. Block has a knack for placing horses where they can win, and Luis H. Colon gets the call in what should be a quick 5.5-furlong maiden sprint on the turf. With all runners at 0% career win rates in a maiden field, ratings and trainer angles are the sharpest tools we have — and this one leads both categories.

place1RockfestML 7/5

Rockfest is the 7/5 morning line choice and rates second on our board at 81.92, so the case for him landing on the board is sound even if our top pick beats him to the wire. Trainer James P. DiVito sends out two runners in this race (he also saddles Rocky Raccoon), and his stable's presence in the win and place spot suggests he came to play. At even money or less, he's best used in exactas rather than win bets.

show5Mischievous RichieML 3/1

Mischievous Richie sits third on our ratings at 56.67 and opens at 3/1 with E.T. Baird riding for Larry Rivelli — a solid combination at this level. He's posted an average speed figure of 55, tying the top mark in the field and suggesting he has the raw pace numbers to stay competitive if the race sets up right. In a maiden sprint where the two heavy hitters can target each other, Mischievous Richie is a logical show alternative.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 5

5:52 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

Ten horses go to post in this 5.5-furlong turf starter optional claimer — the morning line favorite checks in fourth on our ratings, creating real separation between our top three picks and the odds board.

win9Bernie LomaxML 4/1

Bernie Lomax tops the TrackWiz board at 83.58 and brings a 23% career win rate into this spot, the best combination of rating and win percentage among the contenders. Alexander Bendezu gets the call for trainer Maximino Quinonez, and at 4/1 there's legitimate overlay value when you're the top-rated horse in the race. The 5.5-furlong turf sprint suits his average speed profile, and this looks like a prime spot for a career-best effort.

place7Mr. SweetsML 6/1

Mr. Sweets is offered at 6/1 on the morning line but rates virtually identical to Bernie Lomax on our board at 82.71 — that's a razor-thin gap at the top, which means the place position is where the value lives at these odds. Luis H. Colon rides for Joel Campbell, and his average speed figure of 55 is right in line with the top of this field. At 6/1 for a horse this close to our win pick in the ratings, the place bet is genuinely attractive.

show8RacarinoML 3/1

Racarino rates third on our board at 74.13 and opens at 3/1 — a reasonable price for a horse with a 17% career win rate and average speed figures matching the leaders. Assael Espinoza takes the mount for Armando Hernandez, a trainer who's active on the Hawthorne turf, and in a ten-horse field the trifecta with these three at the top of the ratings is worth structuring around.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 6

6:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Wolf Hunter opens as a near-even-money choice in this 1 1/16-mile dirt claimer, and our ratings strongly back the chalk — but the second and third picks on our board offer real value at 5/1 and 9/2.

win1Wolf HunterML 9/5

Wolf Hunter leads the field with an 88.83 TrackWiz rating — a commanding margin over the rest of this claiming field — and gets Luis H. Colon in the irons for trainer Manny Perez. He opens at 9/5 on the morning line, and with the highest rating in the race by a clear margin, the model is essentially screaming chalk here. His average speed figure of 52 is consistent with the surface, and in a short field of seven, this is one of the stronger win-play setups on the card.

place6Lucky DestinyML 5/1

Lucky Destiny is the sneaky value angle at 5/1 — she rates second in the field at 83.33 but is priced well behind the favorite, giving place bettors an excellent return if she runs to her number. Trainer Scott Becker has her with Alexander Bendezu, and a 14% career win rate suggests she's a legitimate place threat, not just a pace factor. In exacta land, pairing Wolf Hunter on top with Lucky Destiny at 5/1 is a compelling ticket.

show5CantaritoML 9/2

Cantarito slots in third on our ratings at 67.35 and opens at 9/2 with Javier Tavares riding for Heriberto Villalobos. His average speed figure of 53 is actually the best in the field outside of Game Santa, and in a two-turn dirt race where pace can play a factor, he's the type to stay on for a piece of the purse. He rounds out a logical trifecta combo with the top two picks.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 7

6:48 PM EDT

Allowance · 7 1/2 fur · Turf

This 7.5-furlong turf allowance features a wide-open bottom half but a clear class edge at the top — Royally Sassy's rating separates her from the field, while the place and show picks offer surprising value.

win8Royally SassyML 5/2

Royally Sassy leads all comers with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating and brings a 25% career win rate — the best in the field — into this allowance spot on the turf. Alexander Bendezu rides for trainer Christopher Davis, and at 5/2 on the morning line the public has her reasonably priced given her profile. The 7.5-furlong turf distance should suit a horse with her speed figures, and TrackWiz has her as a clear best-bet play in the nightcap.

place6Peacock RoadML 7/2

Peacock Road rates second at 74.44 and opens at 7/2 — solid place value for a horse with a 17% career win rate going a distance that should allow her to settle and finish. Luis H. Colon picks up the mount for trainer David R. Reid, a combination worth respecting in turf company. If Royally Sassy gets away clean and controls the pace, Peacock Road is the most likely beneficiary tracking her through the stretch.

show5Culture ShockML 8/1

Culture Shock is the hidden gem of this race — she rates third at 68.1 but goes off at 8/1 on the morning line, which is a notable overlay for a horse with a 33% career win rate. Trainer Michele Boyce has her posted with Olaf Hernandez, and her average speed figure of 54 ties with the top of this field. In a race where the bottom of the morning line includes several 10/1-and-up shots with weak ratings, Culture Shock at 8/1 is the kind of show horse that can turn a trifecta into a payday.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

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Bottom line: Coni's Coup is the bet of the day on paper, but Ciao Tommaso at 6/1 in Race 2 is the kind of value play that wins your afternoon. The turf is the story today at Hawthorne, and our free picks give you a strong start. For pace scenarios, exotic ticket breakdowns, and our full take on Races 4–7, subscribe to TrackWiz Premium and get the complete edge before post time.

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