Hawthorne Picks & Predictions — June 18, 2026
We're headed to Hawthorne on a comfortable Thursday afternoon — 73°F, partly cloudy, and conditions that should keep the dirt track playing fair and honest. Seven races are on the board today, and the card has a little something for everyone, from short sprints to routes stretching past a mile.
Today's lineup leans heavily on maiden company early before opening up to claiming and starter optional claiming action later in the card. That kind of progression usually tells a story on its own — horses moving through conditions, connections fishing for spots, and angles that reward the patient handicapper. We've got three free race breakdowns to get you started and four premium races waiting for subscribers who want the full picture.
Best Bets
Race 1
Maiden Special Weight · 4 1/2 fur · Dirt
A first-out maiden sprint at 4 1/2 furlongs with zero career starts across the board — this one comes down entirely to training reports, morning-line clues, and TrackWiz ratings separating the contenders.
Liams Fancy opens as the 9/5 morning-line favorite and carries the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 58.67, which is a meaningful edge in a race where no horse has ever seen a starting gate. Trainer Larry Rivelli sending out the morning-line chalk is a strong signal — connections don't top the board by accident in maiden specials. Jockey Jareth Loveberry gets the call, and pairing a polished rider with the barn's top-rated entrant tells you where Rivelli's confidence sits. At 9/5 the price isn't exciting, but the profile is hard to argue with.
Phinarosa is the other Rivelli runner in this race and rates second in the field at 56.67, which is a nice cushion over the rest of the pack. When a trainer doubles up in a maiden race, the barn usually has a clear first and second string — Phinarosa looks like that reliable backup option. E.T. Baird's experience in the irons at 3/1 makes her an appealing piece in exactas underneath Liams Fancy.
Second Opinion checks in third on the TrackWiz leaderboard at 55.0 and is trained by Chris M. Block, a barn worth watching at Hawthorne. The 4/1 morning line offers a touch of value in a race where the top two are clustered, making Second Opinion a reasonable trifecta closer and a hedge if the Rivelli horses get into a speed duel early.
Race 2
Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt
The morning-line favorite looks vulnerable in this maiden route — TrackWiz analysis identifies a significant rating gap favoring two overlooked entrants, setting up potential value in the exotics.
My Last Escapade holds the top TrackWiz rating in the field by a substantial margin at 81.37, nearly eight points clear of the next best — that kind of separation in a maiden route is hard to ignore. Trainer Michael L. Slager sends this one out at 3/1 with Julio E. Felix aboard, and the average speed figure of 54 is right in line with the competitive horses in this field. The pace scenario at a mile and 70 yards should set up well for a horse with this rating profile — distance tests often expose raw ability that shorter dashes can mask. Our top play in this race.
Jakes Channel is the second-highest-rated horse in the field at 73.82, a big jump over the morning-line favorite Urgent Action (59.0), and yet he's posted at 9/2 on the morning line — that's a potential overlay. Orlando Mojica is a savvy pilot for a route, and John Rednour Jr. knows this circuit well. If My Last Escapade hits the board, Jakes Channel looks like the most likely companion.
Chief Gross is worth including at 8/1 as a trifecta piece — a TrackWiz rating of 60.51 puts him clearly third in class among horses with any experience, and trainer Shane Childers' barn has shown up at Hawthorne before. The average speed figure of 52 is modest, but in a maiden field this raw, consistency matters more than ceiling.
Race 3
Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt
Maiden claiming company at 5 1/2 furlongs brings out two standout ratings that tower over the rest — expect a focused battle at the top while the rest of the field plays for minor money.
Street Style owns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 87.96 and draws the 2/1 morning line, which is a short price but reflects real dominance on paper. Trainer Manny Perez also runs Black Russian in this race, but Street Style is clearly the stable's primary weapon here based on both the rating and the morning line. Jockey Johanis Aranguren gets the mount, and at 5 1/2 furlongs on dirt the pace is likely to be honest enough to test everyone. A rating nearly 3 points clear of Incorporated and more than 9 points over any other rival is a significant edge.
Incorporated comes in with a 84.9 TrackWiz rating and is priced at 9/2 — that's a potential overlay given how close he grades to the win pick. Harold Joseph Ortega takes the mount for trainer Omar Razvi, and the average speed figure of 52 is competitive for this class level. If Street Style has any trouble breaking or gets shuffled early, Incorporated has the raw numbers to capitalize.
Gray Mike is the sneaky play in here at 5/1 with a solid 78.4 rating — third best in the field — and Carlos Ramirez has him pointed at the right level. The average speed figure of 54 actually leads all horses in this race, which is an interesting detail that suggests Gray Mike may have run faster in the past than his overall rating implies. Worth adding to trifectas as the logical closer to the top two.
Our three free races cover the first half of the card and give you a solid foundation to build on. Street Style in Race 3 is the horse we're most excited about — that 2/1 morning line in a maiden claiming sprint at 5½ furlongs is a legit price for a horse who grades out at the top of our ratings at 87.96. Liams Fancy opens the day in Race 1's 4½-furlong dash and draws the top spot on our board despite a field full of unknowns. My Last Escapade in Race 2 stretches out to a route at a mile and 70 yards — a distance that often shakes out the horses who were merely fast versus the ones who actually want to run.
One thing to keep an eye on across the early races: the partly cloudy, moderate-temperature conditions at Hawthorne today are about as neutral as it gets. No rain-softened kickback, no brutal heat sapping late energy. That plays into pace scenarios nicely — horses with back-end ability shouldn't be fighting the elements down the lane.
Full Card Analysis
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Street Style is our marquee free play of the day, My Last Escapade is worth a close look in the route, and the premium half of the card has a genuine longshot angle with Dixie Penny at 6/1 that our analysis supports. It's a workable seven-race card on a pleasant afternoon at Hawthorne — the kind of day where solid preparation pays off. Subscribers can access the full Race 4–7 breakdown, exotic ticket structures, and pace projections right now through TrackWiz. Good luck out there — let's make it count.