Daily Picks

Hawthorne Picks & Predictions — June 21, 2026

Sunday, June 21, 20267 racesHawthorne

It's a gray, soggy Sunday at Hawthorne as rain rolls through Chicago with temps sitting right around 66°F — and that wet dirt is going to be the story of this entire card. Seven races are on the slate today, mixing maiden events, claiming company, and a pair of turf tests that could see some late scratches if the ground crew calls those surfaces off.

Wet tracks at Hawthorne have a way of reshuffling the deck. Horses that love to get their nose in front early tend to thrive when the slop kicks back, so pace scenarios are going to carry extra weight in your handicapping today. Keep an eye on post position and early speed — both matter more than usual when the footing is compromised.

Three races are fully unlocked for every TrackWiz reader, and we've got a strong opinion in each one. The remaining four are reserved for subscribers, and frankly, that's where some of the day's most interesting betting angles live.

Best Bets

Race 1

7:38 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 4 1/2 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden sprint with no experienced runners — every horse is working off raw potential and morning-line positioning, making this one of the trickiest betting puzzles on the card.

win3Cut ThroatML 2/1

Cut Throat earns the top TrackWiz rating at 58.33 and is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 for a reason — trainer Larry Rivelli is one of the sharper outfits at Hawthorne, and having Jareth Loveberry in the irons only adds confidence. The horse has flashed an avg speed figure of 53, which is the only measurable speed data among all six runners, giving him a concrete edge over the field. In a maiden sprint where so little is known, tangible data is king, and Cut Throat has more of it than anyone else.

place1DormieML 5/2

Dormie draws the rail for Chris M. Block and sits just behind Cut Throat on the morning line at 5/2, sporting the second-highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 57.5. With no prior speed figures to go on, Block's saddling and Julio E. Felix's experience navigating the inside path become the key angles here — this horse figures to be part of the exacta conversation at a fair price.

show5Indigo MoML 4/1

Indigo Mo at 4/1 rounds out our top three with a TrackWiz rating of 55, and in a race this uncertain, the value of a third opinion is real. Trainer Michael B. Campbell sends this one out with enough support to warrant inclusion in trifecta tickets, and at morning-line odds that offer a little cushion, Indigo Mo is a reasonable exotics piece.

Race 2

8:03 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The morning-line favorite barely cracks the top half of our ratings in this six-furlong claimer — there's a legit class standout hiding in the middle of the program that the oddsmaker has underestimated.

win3Big DML 5/1

Big D is the most interesting horse on the card today — his TrackWiz rating of 84.17 towers over every other runner in this field by double digits, yet he's sitting at 5/1 on the morning line while Big Walt goes off at 7/5. Trainer Hugo Rodriguez sends him out with Frank Reyes up, and the horse matches the field on average speed (54) while carrying a career win percentage of 11% — modest but respectable in the claiming ranks. When a horse's rating diverges this sharply from his morning-line odds, that's exactly the kind of overlay TrackWiz analysis is built to find.

place4Regained PowerML 9/2

Regained Power is the second-best-rated horse in the race at 71.66 and projects as a logical place finisher at 9/2. His avg speed of 54 keeps him competitive on pace, and a 6% career win rate in the claiming game shows he finds ways to hit the board even when the win doesn't come — important for show/place bettors riding out this race.

show5Dash to the CashML 6/1

Dash to the Cash lands in our show slot at 6/1 morning line with a solid 62.51 rating and an avg speed of 54 that matches the top of the field. Trainer Ricky Lindsay and jockey Jareth Loveberry form a capable combo, and while a 3% career win rate keeps expectations measured, this horse is live enough at price to anchor the bottom of your exotics.

Race 3

8:33 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Cloudy Lass is a standout on paper in this maiden claimer, but don't sleep on the value lurking at program numbers 4 and 6 — this race has genuine exacta potential if the favorite gets into any early trouble.

win2Cloudy LassML 2/1

Cloudy Lass carries the highest TrackWiz rating in the entire race at 88.54 and is wisely installed as the 2/1 morning-line choice for trainer Chris M. Block. Olaf Hernandez gets the call in the irons, and while no career wins are on the board yet, that's expected in maiden company — the rating does the talking here. Her avg speed of 53 is right in range for this 5.5-furlong dirt trip, and there's no other horse in this field who comes close to matching her overall profile.

place6VeronicaforthewinML 7/2

Veronicaforthewin is our place pick at 7/2 and she's making a strong case with a TrackWiz rating of 81.32 — second in the field and not far behind Cloudy Lass. Her avg speed figure of 55 actually leads the entire race, which is a meaningful data point in a maiden sprint where early position can be decisive. Trainer Elias Lopez and Frank Reyes could team up for a price in the exacta here.

show4Unkept PromisesML 6/1

Unkept Promises draws into the show slot at 6/1 with a respectable rating of 70.12 — third best in the field. The avg speed of 51 is a tick below the top contenders, but in maiden claiming, consistency and positioning matter as much as raw speed, and trainer Pedro J. Flores has this horse prepped to hit the board at a fair price.

Our free coverage kicks off right out of the gate with Cut Throat in the maiden special weight opener at 4½ furlongs — a short, sharp sprint where breaking alertly on wet dirt can be everything. Race 2 brings us to the 6-furlong claiming event, where Big D draws our top rating at 84.17 and offers genuine value at a 5/1 morning line. Then in Race 3, Cloudy Lass pops as our highest-confidence free pick of the day with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating in the maiden claiming sprint — she looks like the class of that field at a fair price.

The thread tying these three together? All three races are contested on dirt at sprint distances, meaning early positioning and a wet-track pedigree are the angles to lean on. If the rail is holding kickback, expect pace-pressers and stalkers to have an edge over closers who need a dry, fast surface to fire their best shot.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

9:06 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Via Del Corso has both the highest TrackWiz rating and the most impressive career win percentage in this claiming sprint — a rare combination that makes him hard to fade even at a modest 5/2 morning line.

win7Via Del CorsoML 5/2

Via Del Corso is the standout in Race 4 with a TrackWiz rating of 87.81, the best in the field, and a career win percentage of 33% — that's elite consistency for the claiming ranks. Trainer Eduardo Rodriguez and jockey Johanis Aranguren are a live combination, and an avg speed of 54 keeps this horse right in the mix pace-wise over 5.5 furlongs of dirt. At 5/2 on the morning line, you're not getting rich, but you're backing the class of the field with hard numbers behind the opinion.

place5Uncaptured PulseML 3/1

Uncaptured Pulse checks in as our place pick at 3/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 80.48 — second-highest in the race — and leads the entire field with an avg speed figure of 55. A 14% career win rate is steady, and trainer Rigo Rosas has Frank Reyes booked for the mount. If the pace sets up for a late runner, Uncaptured Pulse has the figures to collar anything that ties up.

show1Mr. ChivasML 5/1

Mr. Chivas rounds out our top three at 5/1 with a 72.77 rating and a 17% career win percentage that shows genuine competitive ability at this level. His avg speed of 54 is right at the field average, and trainer Omar Razvi sends him out from the rail — post position can be an asset in a sprint if he breaks cleanly. Solid show play and a useful exotics anchor at double-digit morning-line territory.

Race 5

9:38 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

Eleven runners go to post on the turf at 5.5 furlongs, and three horses — Tizmeonemoretime, Tum Tap, and Engagement — separate themselves from a chaotic field that includes a handful of longshots with no realistic winning profile.

win10TizmeonemoretimeML 5/1

Tizmeonemoretime tops our TrackWiz ratings at 84.17 in this turf sprint and goes off at 5/1 on the morning line — a fair price for the top-rated horse in a wide field. Trainer Rigo Rosas pairs up with Ademar Santos, and while a 5% career win percentage looks modest, turf specialists often take time to find their groove, and this horse's rating suggests the talent is there. The turf surface at 5.5 furlongs rewards horses with a little early pace and late kick, and this profile fits.

place9Tum TapML 3/1

Tum Tap is a serious contender at 3/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 82.96 — just a whisker behind the top pick — and carries a 33% career win percentage that jumps off the page. Trainer Michele Boyce has this horse firing, and Julio E. Felix is a dependable rider who knows how to navigate turf traffic. The combination of high rating and strong career win rate makes Tum Tap the most legitimate threat to our top pick.

show1EngagementML 6/1

Engagement opens at 6/1 with a solid 75.12 rating and a 14% career win rate that shows she's competitive at this level. Frank Reyes handles the mount for trainer Armando Hernandez, and her avg speed of 54 matches the better horses in the race. In a full field of eleven, exotics depth matters, and Engagement at morning-line price offers real value in the trifecta.

Race 6

10:10 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

The morning-line favorite isn't even close to the top of our ratings in this mile-and-seventy-yard dirt claimer — Minnesota Moon and Regimental make for a compelling 1-2 on paper, setting up an interesting pricing dynamic.

win8Minnesota MoonML 6/1

Minnesota Moon is our top pick at 6/1 despite carrying the second-highest TrackWiz rating in the race at 82.71 — a legitimate overlay in a race where the 3/1 favorite ranks considerably lower on our model. Alexander Bendezu is one of the more active and capable riders in this meet, and trainer Maximino Quinonez has the horse in form. An avg speed of 54 and a 7% career win rate are reasonable baselines for a one-turn route at this level.

place1RegimentalML 5/1

Regimental is right behind the top pick at a rating of 81.48 and goes off at 5/1 — another horse with potential value given his morning-line price. Trainer Ricardo Rodriguez saddles Johanis Aranguren, and while a 7% career win rate mirrors the field, it's the strong TrackWiz figure that drives this selection. In a pace scenario over a mile, horses with the stamina profile to grind out the distance tend to cluster, and Regimental fits that mold.

show5Lavender EarlML 9/2

Lavender Earl at 9/2 brings a 78.85 rating — third in the field — and the best avg speed among our top three at 54, matching the leaders. Trainer Carlos Ramirez uses Luis H. Colon, and a 6% career win rate keeps the ceiling modest, but Lavender Earl has enough quality to land in the money in a race where pace questions abound over the longer distance. Worth keeping in trifecta combos.

Race 7

10:40 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

Grand Illusion enters this one-mile turf claimer with a massive edge in both TrackWiz rating and career win percentage — but at 5/1 on the morning line, the market hasn't fully woken up to just how good this horse looks on paper.

win1Grand IllusionML 5/1

Grand Illusion leads all nine runners with a TrackWiz rating of 84.17 and a remarkable 40% career win percentage — that kind of strike rate in the claiming ranks is genuinely elite. Trainer Maximino Quinonez and jockey Alexander Bendezu are a proven combination at this meet, and while an avg speed of 52 isn't flashy, turf routes are often won by horses with position sense and tactical ability rather than pure speed. At 5/1, this feels like the kind of horse the public will catch late — get there early.

place3RiettaML 4/1

Rietta slots in as our place pick at 4/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 72.84 and a 13% career win percentage — both metrics rank second and third in the field respectively. Trainer Michele Boyce teams with Johanis Aranguren, and an avg speed of 53 is right in the competitive range for a turf mile. Rietta has the profile of a horse who settles nicely and runs an honest race, which is exactly what you want in a place pick.

show2Man On AttackML 3/1

Man On Attack opens at 3/1 as the morning-line favorite but ranks third in our ratings at 66.12 — a gap worth noting when building exotics. Trainer Shane Childers keeps Angel Ortega Stanley on board, and a 6% career win rate suggests the public confidence here may be slightly ahead of what the numbers support. Still, a 3/1 horse finishing third would anchor a very nice trifecta, and he's got enough ability to show up.

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Seven races, a rain-soaked Hawthorne oval, and some real opinions to back — that's the setup for today. Start with Cloudy Lass as the free-card standout, don't sleep on Big D at value odds in Race 2, and if you're a subscriber, Minnesota Moon at 6/1 in the route is the longshot angle we're most excited about. Full card breakdowns, pace maps, and exotic tickets are waiting for you — go Premium and let's make this rainy Sunday count.

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