Hawthorne Picks & Predictions — June 14, 2026
Happy Flag Day from Hawthorne! We've got a clean, comfortable Sunday at the Chicago oval — partly cloudy skies and a breezy 72°F means the turf should be playing true and the main track in solid shape. That's good news for a seven-race card that splits almost evenly between the two surfaces, giving handicappers plenty to work with on both sides of the ledger.
Three of those races are fully unlocked for every TrackWiz reader today, and the card features an intriguing mix of claiming routes, maiden sprints, and allowance company on the grass. The pace scenarios vary wildly from race to race, which is exactly the kind of card where sharp analysis separates the tickets worth keeping from the ones you crumple up on the way out.
Best Bets
Race 1
Claiming · 5 fur · Turf
Mr. Sweets opens as a prohibitive morning-line favorite on the turf sprint, but Bridge Classic and Poncho Attack post respectable ratings that could make the exotics interesting.
Mr. Sweets carries the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 89.12 — a significant margin over the second-ranked Poncho Attack at 78.81. Jareth Loveberry gets the call for trainer Joel Campbell, and the 8/5 morning line reflects how much the market respects this horse's overall profile. The 5-furlong turf sprint suits speed, and with that kind of ratings gap, Mr. Sweets is the clear selection to beat.
Poncho Attack (78.81 rating) lines up off a 5/2 morning line and matches Mr. Sweets on average speed figures at 55 — so if the favorite gets into any trouble, this one has the raw numbers to capitalize. Trainer Shane Childers sends out a horse whose career win percentage is modest at 7%, but the speed and rating suggest the form may be sharper than that number implies. Good place anchor in the exotics.
Bridge Classic at 7/2 shares that same average speed figure of 55 and ties Chi Town Prince for the second-best career win percentage in the field at 28%. Trainer Manny Perez has a live runner here, and Johanis Aranguren is a capable handler for a short turf sprint. At the morning line, Bridge Classic offers enough upside to round out a win-place-show ticket.
Race 2
Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt
A maiden claiming affair on the dirt where every horse is still looking for that elusive first win — but the form lines separate pretty cleanly at the top.
I'm Hungover opens at even money for a reason — the TrackWiz rating of 90.00 is the highest mark we've assigned in this race by nearly 10 points, and trainer Joel Campbell has the hot hand on the card tonight. Jareth Loveberry climbs aboard, making this a familiar Campbell-Loveberry partnership that's worth noting. In a wide-open maiden field where no one has broken their maiden yet, having the biggest ratings edge is exactly the kind of edge you want.
Tour De' Port at 3/1 is the logical place horse, carrying a TrackWiz rating of 80.51 — second best in the field and well clear of the rest. Alexander Bendezu rides for trainer Maximino Quinonez, and the horse's average speed figure of 53 edges out most of the field. If the favorite gets caught flat-footed early on the dirt, Tour De' Port looks like the most natural beneficiary.
Lilas Oak Tree (63.38 rating) provides some sneaky show value at 4/1 morning line for the Campbell barn — yes, the same trainer as the favorite. That barn has two runners in this race, which tells you Campbell is confident in his stable's form right now. With an average speed figure matching the majority of the field at 52, this one could easily fill a spot for players looking to cap a trifecta.
Race 3
Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt
The morning-line favorite End of Innocence is set as the public choice, but the TrackWiz numbers tell a dramatically different story — creating a potential value gap worth exploiting.
Izzy's Monster is our top selection despite going off at 5/2 as the second choice on the morning line, and the TrackWiz rating of 87.81 explains why clearly. Trainer Eduardo Rodriguez saddles this horse with a career win percentage of 30% — tops in the field — and Luis H. Colon provides steady handling in the irons. For a mile-and-70-yard test on the dirt, a horse with that level of proven winning experience is a strong foundation pick.
Crushed Ice at 7/2 has a TrackWiz rating of 55.2 and a career win percentage of 17%, making this one a workable place option in a field where the ratings drop off sharply after the top two. Trainer Scott Becker puts Alexander Bendezu up, and at this distance on the dirt, a closer with some experience finding the winner's circle has appeal as a place hedge. Good spot to include in exacta coverage.
End of Innocence is the 9/5 morning-line favorite, which makes it interesting that our ratings have this horse third at 49.6 — well below Izzy's Monster's 87.81. Jareth Loveberry rides for John Haran, and the 25% career win percentage is respectable, but the significant ratings gap vs. the favorite tag makes this more of a show play than a win bet. In show parlays and trifecta keys, the public backing makes End of Innocence a good safety net.
Our three free races today span both surfaces and multiple conditions levels — a nice sampler of what the full card has to offer. We open on the turf with Mr. Sweets drawing our top rating at 89.12 in Race 1, a short five-furlong test where early speed on tight turf sprints tends to hold a premium. From there we shift to the main track, where maiden claimer I'm Hungover tops our model at a perfect 90.00 rating — the highest single-race rating on the card — and goes off as the morning-line even-money favorite. Closing out the free slate, Izzy's Monster stretches out to a mile and 70 yards in Race 3's Starter Optional Claiming, earning an 87.81 rating in a distance that tends to separate the true routers from the converted sprinters.
The common thread through the free races? All three top picks have morning-line odds of 5/2 or shorter, which tells you the market respects these selections. But as always, the goal isn't just to find winners — it's to find value. Keep that in mind as you build your tickets.
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Bottom line: Hawthorne serves up a well-rounded seven-race card today with ideal conditions and real betting opportunities from top to bottom. Mr. Sweets, I'm Hungover, and Izzy's Monster headline the free picks — but the most intriguing number on the board may belong to Electric Charge at 6/1, and that full breakdown is reserved for subscribers. Good luck out there, and as always, bet smart.