Daily Picks

Fort Erie Picks & Predictions — September 15, 2026

September 15, 20267 racesAll Fort Erie picks

This card ran on September 15, 2026.

Best bets at Fort Erie, September 15, 2026

Race 14Getting AheadML 2/112:15 PM EDT

Race 2 is free with an account, and the other 5 races are for members.

A free account opens race 2 too. Premium opens all 7, with AI ratings on every runner and SmartBet, which splits one bet across the horses you like.

Join Free See plans · from $9.99

Fort Erie is open for business this Tuesday with a seven-race card under cloudy skies and a comfortable 68°F on the Niagara backstretch. No heat, no glare — just good racing weather, and conditions that should keep both the dirt and turf surfaces playing fair all afternoon.

It's a claiming-heavy program today, which means we're in horse-identifier territory. These are the kinds of cards where knowing who fits the conditions — and who's been dropped in class for a reason — separates the sharp money from the guesswork. Our TrackWiz models have processed every angle across all seven races, and there's genuine value to be found.

Three races are open to all readers, starting with the opener where Getting Ahead draws our top mark. The back half of the card goes deep for subscribers, including a pair of turf routes that could shape up beautifully for multi-race plays.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:15 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The morning line makes this look like a two-horse race, but TrackWiz ratings tell a slightly different story — Getting Ahead holds a real edge over the 8/5 favorite, and Shes Hot to Trot could complicate things at a juicy price.

win4Getting AheadML 2/1

Getting Ahead tops our TrackWiz ratings at 88.54, edging out every other horse in the field, and backs it up with a 17% career win rate that leads this group. Trainer Erin H. Rickman sends her out with Juan Crawford up, a sharp pairing to note. At 2/1 on the morning line, she's actually priced a little shorter than we'd like, but the numbers justify the confidence — this is the horse to beat over 6 furlongs on the dirt.

place5Shes Hot to TrotML 4/1

Shes Hot to Trot at 4/1 offers solid each-way appeal with a TrackWiz rating of 83.1, third-best in the field but close enough to matter. Steve Jadoo rides for trainer Julie Mathes, and while her career win rate sits at 8%, the rating suggests she's been running competitively — this is a horse that can sneak into the exacta at a price worth taking.

show1RiflingML 8/5

Rifling is the morning-line favorite at 8/5, and that kind of public support is hard to fully fade even when our ratings slot her third. She carries an 81.55 TrackWiz rating and a 15% career win mark, and Luis R. Reyes is a capable handler. If you're building exotics, she's a safe underneath piece, even if we think the top two have the edge.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

12:43 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Maiden claiming sprints on the dirt can be volatile, but this one has a clear standout — Noyzee Girl dominates the TrackWiz ratings and goes postward as the heavy chalk in a field of first-time and lightly-raced runners.

win6Noyzee GirlML 6/5

Noyzee Girl is the class of this field by a wide margin, posting a 89.71 TrackWiz rating that towers over the next-best at 53.33. Trainer Roy George Agostino sends her out with Brian A. Cheyne aboard, and her average speed figure of 54 is tops in the race. Yes, she's 6/5 on the morning line, which compresses the win value, but in a maiden claimer this uneven, we're not looking for a reason to go against her.

place5SociallyannalyzedML 5/1

Sociallyannalyzed is the logical backup at 5/1, holding a 53.33 rating that puts her clearly second in the TrackWiz standings. Kirk Johnson rides for Michael V. Cohen, and while her average speed of 50 trails the top horses, that rating gap could translate to a place finish at a price worth including in your horizontals. In a field where most runners are unproven, she represents the clearest value behind the favorite.

show2Seattle RisingML 3/1

Seattle Rising checks in at a 49.4 TrackWiz rating, third in the field, and carries a 3/1 morning line that reflects her legitimate contention. Christoff Douglas gets the mount for Darren C. Glennon, and her average speed of 52 is respectable in this company. She's the kind of horse that keeps you honest in the trifecta — leave her underneath.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

The first three races give everyone a solid taste of what today's card has to offer. On the dirt sprints in Races 1 and 2, keep an eye on how early speed is holding up — if horses are getting clear early and holding on, that front-running bias is worth pressing in the later races too. Getting Ahead opens the card at a workable 2/1 morning line with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating, while Noyzee Girl in Race 2 posts the highest free-race rating on the board at 89.71 and comes in as the morning-line favorite at 6/5 — respect that number.

Race 3 shifts to the turf for a one-mile claiming test, and Little Red Domi at 3/1 is the play our models like in a field that figures to sort itself out around the far turn. Three solid free best bets to anchor your day — now let's talk about what's waiting for subscribers in Races 4 through 7.

Free with an account

Open the next race free

A free account opens the first 2 races at every track, and every race at our Track of the Day. No credit card needed.

Create a free account Sign in

Full Card Analysis

Race 3

1:11 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

Eight horses go a mile on the turf, and while Little Red Domi heads the TrackWiz ratings convincingly, Delian League's 19% career win rate and Buttonwood Tree's sharp connections make this more than a one-horse show.

win8Little Red DomiML 3/1

Little Red Domi sits atop our TrackWiz ratings at 87.08 in a field where the second-best horse checks in at 72.84 — that's meaningful separation. She also brings a 23% career win rate, tied for the best in the field, and Juan Crawford is one of the more reliable sticks at Fort Erie. At 3/1, she's fair value for a horse who clearly profiles as the top selection on a turf route.

place4Delian LeagueML 7/2

Delian League is the most interesting underneath play in the race. A 19% career win rate is the second-highest in the field, and his 72.84 TrackWiz rating is a genuine threat to the top pick. Trainer Philip Hall sends him out with Prayven Badrie, and at 7/2, there's legitimate each-way value here — Delian League has the profile of a horse who runs a solid second or better.

show2Buttonwood TreeML 5/2

Buttonwood Tree may be third in our ratings at 57.82, but her 18% career win percentage is one of the best in this field and deserves attention. Sofia Vives rides for Anthony Adamo, and the 5/2 morning line suggests the public respects her too. In a turf mile with pace complications from an eight-horse field, she's a solid underneath piece for trifecta purposes.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 4

1:39 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

This is a TrackWiz premium race, and Silent Passion draws the eye immediately — a 88.54 rating and a 23% career win mark put her head and shoulders above most of this claiming field at six furlongs on the dirt.

win2Silent PassionML 2/1

Silent Passion owns the highest TrackWiz rating in Race 4 at 88.54, and her 23% career win percentage is the best in the field by a healthy margin. Helen Marie Vanek rides for trainer Nick Guy Mileni Jr., a barn that doubles up in this race, which signals stable confidence. Her average speed figure of 55 also leads the group — she checks every box we look for in a win bet at 2/1.

place5Frac AmourML 4/1

Frac Amour is a smart each-way play at 4/1 with a solid 69.99 TrackWiz rating, ranking her third in this field. Kirk Johnson takes the mount for Julie Mathes, and while her 9% career win rate is modest, the rating suggests she's been performing closer to the top of the field than that number implies. At morning-line odds of 4/1, she's a value-oriented place wager in exacta and trifecta coverage.

show4Easter Sunday GirlML 8/1

Easter Sunday Girl at 8/1 is a nice longshot to anchor the bottom of your exotic tickets. Her 56.53 TrackWiz rating puts her fourth in the field, and with Juan Crawford aboard for trainer Sharon Ceccato, she has capable handling. At double-digit-adjacent odds, she gives you real payout juice in trifectas if the pace scenario sets up kindly for a closer.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 5

2:07 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A competitive seven-horse dirt sprint where A La Carte leads on TrackWiz ratings but Cantucci and Ernie's Martini have the profiles to pressure her — pace could be a factor with multiple speed horses in the field.

win2A La CarteML 5/2

A La Carte tops our TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 in a field that has some genuine depth, and her 16% career win rate is respectable in a claiming sprint. Helen Marie Vanek continues her busy card aboard, riding for trainer Nick Guy Mileni Jr. — the same barn also enters Bingo's Grind, suggesting they're playing to win with this one. Her average speed figure of 55 matches the best in the field, and at 5/2, the price is fair.

place7CantucciML 3/1

Cantucci is a sharp place play at 3/1 — a 76.93 TrackWiz rating is second-best in the field, and Ismael Eluid Mosqueira rides for Alan F. Bird. What's interesting is that Cantucci's 10% career win rate is on the lower side, but that rating suggests better-than-results form, the kind of horse who runs consistently without always closing the deal. In an exacta with A La Carte on top, he's worth including.

show1Ernie's MartiniML 4/1

Ernie's Martini has a 20% career win rate — highest in the field — and that's not a number you brush aside in a claiming sprint. Da-Sean Zavier Gaskin rides for Kevin Buttigieg, and his 71.41 TrackWiz rating and average speed of 55 keep him firmly in the mix. He's our show selection and a strong underneath piece if the pace sets up for the front-runners.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 6

2:35 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Let's Go Liam leads the TrackWiz ratings in a wide-open six-and-a-half furlong dirt affair, but the ratings cluster between 72 and 85 means several horses have a realistic shot — this race sets up for a competitive pace with multiple tactical horses.

win7Let's Go LiamML 5/2

Let's Go Liam posts an 84.84 TrackWiz rating, tops in the field, and draws Leo Salles for trainer Nick Guy Mileni Jr. — a barn with a second entry in the race, which is often a sign of stable confidence in the primary runner. His 5% career win rate looks modest, but the rating tells a story of a horse who's been competitive in tougher spots. At 5/2 on the morning line, he's a reasonable play to top the ticket.

place6Arami's SpeighsterML 4/1

Arami's Speighster at 4/1 is the most intriguing horse in the race from an each-way perspective. He carries an 81.8 TrackWiz rating — second in the field — with Da-Sean Zavier Gaskin up for trainer Daniel Wills. The 0% career win figure is an eyebrow-raiser, but that rating indicates he's been knocking on the door, and a six-and-a-half furlong trip could finally see him break through. Strong place play.

show1LumberyardML 5/1

Lumberyard rounds out the exotics ticket at 5/1, posting a 76.95 TrackWiz rating that's fourth-best in the race. Helen Marie Vanek rides for Nick Guy Mileni Jr., meaning the same barn is represented three times on this card — they're clearly in form. An average speed of 55 and a position on the inside post gives Lumberyard a tactical advantage if the speed in this field gets loose.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 7

3:03 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Turf

A nine-horse turf sprint at seven furlongs, and TrackWiz sees a genuine battle shaping up between Boston Bay and Berkus — two high-rated horses with strong career win percentages who should control the conversation in the stretch.

win8Boston BayML 3/1

Boston Bay tops our TrackWiz ratings for Race 7 at 86.4, and while his 9% career win rate might look underwhelming at first glance, this is a horse who's been competing at a high level based on the numbers. Da-Sean Zavier Gaskin, who's had a full book today, takes the mount for Joseph Humber, and the 3/1 morning line gives you fair value for a horse with the highest rating in a nine-horse field. On turf, pace scenarios can shift quickly — Boston Bay has the profile of a horse who can navigate traffic.

place6BerkusML 5/1

Berkus is the most compelling underneath play on the entire card today. An 84.17 TrackWiz rating paired with a 22% career win percentage is a genuinely elite combination for a claiming turf sprint — that win rate is the second-highest in the field. Pierre Mailhot rides for Michaela Neubauer, and at 5/1 on the morning line, there's real value here. If Boston Bay gets beat, Berkus is the most likely winner, making him a must-use in exactas.

show3BonginoML 5/2

Bongino brings a 21% career win rate to the table — second-best in the field — and his 80.99 TrackWiz rating is third among all runners. Michael David rides for Nick Guy Mileni Jr., a barn that's been busy and active all card. At 5/2, he's actually the public's second choice, which makes him an easy underneath inclusion in trifectas, even if our ratings slot him a notch below the top two.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Premium Content

Get the Full Card Analysis

Unlock expert picks for every race, detailed speed figures, trainer angles, and our SmartBet recommendations.

View Plans Sign In

Bottom line: Fort Erie gives us a manageable seven-race card with clear angles, cooperative weather, and a couple of spots where the right horse at the right price can do real damage. Getting Ahead, Noyzee Girl, and Little Red Domi lead the free card — and Boston Bay headlining the closer is one our subscribers won't want to miss. Full card breakdown, pace projections, and exotic strategies are all waiting for you — see what a TrackWiz subscription looks like at /pricing.

← All Fort Erie picks & predictions