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Fort Erie Picks & Predictions — September 14, 2026

September 14, 20267 racesAll Fort Erie picks

This card ran on September 14, 2026.

Best bets at Fort Erie, September 14, 2026

Race 16Uncarrick TeristicML 2/112:15 PM EDT

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Fort Erie is open for business on a beautiful Monday, and the conditions couldn't be better. Clear skies and a crisp 65°F make for ideal racing weather — the turf should be running firm and fast, and the dirt looks like it'll play fair all afternoon. Seven races are on the board, and TrackWiz has gone through every single one.

What makes today's card interesting is the surface split — three of the seven races are contested on the grass, giving turf specialists a real chance to shine. We've also got a mix of claiming and maiden claiming action, meaning class angles and recent form are going to matter a lot. There's value hiding in this card if you know where to look.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:15 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Turf

A wide-open turf claimer with a clear morning-line favorite sitting on top of the TrackWiz ratings — but there's enough pace and class overlap in this eight-horse field to make the exotics interesting.

win6Uncarrick TeristicML 2/1

Uncarrick Teristic tops our ratings at 88.54 — a full 15 points clear of the next-best horse — and draws the 2/1 morning line on the board, suggesting the market agrees. With Juan Crawford in the irons, this one has the talent edge in what shapes up as a winnable spot on the Fort Erie turf. A 10% career win rate is modest, but the raw rating separation here is hard to argue with.

place3Fredericka's RoseML 3/1

Fredericka's Rose brings the strongest career win percentage in the field at 14%, which tells you this horse knows how to finish the job. Trainer Steven Cathcart also has a second horse in the race (She's the Rage), which sometimes signals a live barn, and Mosqueira gets the call. At 3/1 on the morning line with a solid 73.43 TrackWiz rating, she's a natural backup to the top pick.

show1PrincessonamissionML 9/2

Princessonamission draws the rail and carries a 61.64 rating — good for third in this field. The 9/2 morning line offers a touch of value for show-ticket and exacta purposes, and Desean Bynoe keeps things simple from post one on the turf. With a three-win career percentage, she's no world-beater, but the positional advantage of the inside post on a seven-furlong turf trip shouldn't be overlooked.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

12:43 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

This five-horse dirt route looks like a three-horse race at the top, with a clear class standout at odds that won't last long — expect sharp money to compress the price.

win2Buff BayML 9/5

Buff Bay is the standout in Race 2, posting an 88.83 TrackWiz rating — best in the field — while also carrying the highest career win rate at 16%. Trainer Mark Fournier sends him out at 9/5 on the morning line, and Juan Crawford, who's been active on this card, handles the riding duties. At a mile and a sixteenth on the dirt, that 53 average speed figure should hold up just fine against this group.

place4Super SerenadeML 5/2

Super Serenade is the main threat at 5/2, posting a 77.31 rating and a 53 average speed figure that matches the top two horses in class. A 9% career win rate isn't eye-popping, but trainer Howard Keen drops him into a spot where the competition is manageable. If Buff Bay has any trouble in the early going, Super Serenade has the profile to capitalize.

show3NightsaberML 7/2

Nightsaber is an interesting inclusion at 7/2 — a 70.26 rating and a 53 average speed figure put her in the conversation, even with a career win rate of just 4%. Trainer Barbara J. Bailey tends to be patient with horses, and this distance — a route at 1 1/16 miles — could suit a horse that's been building toward something. She's a solid show play for exotics.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

The first three races are fully unlocked for all TrackWiz readers, and there's a nice storyline running through them. In Race 1 on the turf, Uncarrick Teristic comes in at a fair 2/1 morning line with a TrackWiz rating of 88.54 — that's a solid number for a 7-furlong turf claiming opener, and the firm going should suit. Then we shift to the dirt for Races 2 and 3, where Buff Bay (88.83 rating, 9/5 ML) sets up as the standout in the route, and Coherence offers a real live longshot angle at 6/1 in the 5½-furlong sprint despite a rating of 82.71 — occasionally these sprinters at generous prices hit when pace scenarios break right.

The through-line here is straightforward: the turf looks like a good place to be today, and on the dirt, pace-pressing types could have an edge in these shorter distances. Keep that in mind as you build your tickets.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

1:11 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

The TrackWiz number and the morning line are pulling in opposite directions here — our top-rated horse is going off at 6/1 while the public leans toward a 2/1 shot with a lower rating, setting up a potential overlay in a compact five-horse sprint.

win2CoherenceML 6/1

Coherence is our top TrackWiz selection at 82.71, yet the morning line has her at a very generous 6/1 — that's the kind of overlay handicappers dream about in a claiming sprint. Trainer Hannah C. Sprenger has her positioned well, and Christoff Douglas gets the mount. The 5% career win rate is low, but in a tight five-horse field at 5.5 furlongs on the dirt, pure speed-figure edge matters most, and Coherence has it.

place1TiernanML 5/2

Tiernan is the horse the crowd will key on at 5/2, and he's no pushover — a 74.31 rating and a 55 average speed figure (tied for tops in the field) back up his favoritism. His 14% career win rate is among the better marks in this race, and trainer Anthony J. Alderson puts his own son Jeffrey Ian in the saddle, which often signals confidence. He's a legitimate threat to hit the board.

show5ConacherML 7/2

Conacher lands third in our ratings at 49.23 with a 7/2 morning line — not flashy, but workmanlike. An 11% career win rate and a 54 average speed figure give him enough to compete at this level, and trainer Sharon Ceccato places horses consistently in winnable spots. He rounds out the exotics nicely and offers fair odds for a show ticket.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

Race 4

1:39 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 7 fur · Turf

Maiden claiming turf with a full field of winless horses — the kind of race where TrackWiz ratings do the heavy lifting, and two horses separate themselves at the top while the morning line tells a slightly different story.

win8TanistML 3/1

Tanist tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.08 and draws a reasonable 3/1 morning line, making him the most statistically well-supported horse in this maiden claimer. Jeffrey Ian Alderson, one of the busier riders on this card, picks up the mount for trainer Daniel Wills. With a 53 average speed figure in a field where several horses are at 51, Tanist has a measurable edge on raw ability — and in a race full of non-winners, that edge counts double.

place7My EmmyML 5/2

My Emmy is razor-close to Tanist in the ratings at 75.60 and draws the 5/2 morning line — arguably the public's top pick here. Trainer Steven Cathcart is active on this card and puts Alexis Sanchez up, a combination worth noting. A 53 average speed figure matches Tanist and puts her well ahead of most of the field, making her the most logical place horse on the ticket.

show5Rose for CarrickML 8/1

Rose for Carrick is an intriguing show play at 8/1, rating at 75.29 — essentially tied with My Emmy for second in our model. Trainer Julie Mathes drops her into a maiden claiming spot, which can be a positive sign of intent, and Kirk Johnson handles the ride. The morning line of 8/1 looks like a pricing mistake given how close her rating sits to the top two — that's exactly the kind of overlay to exploit in exactas and trifectas.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 5

2:07 PM EDT

Claiming · 4 1/2 fur · Dirt

Short 4.5-furlong dirt sprint with a heavy favorite who looks every bit as dominant as her odds suggest — but the place and show slots are up for grabs in a competitive mid-tier supporting cast.

win6Back to RealityML 7/5

Back to Reality enters as the clear class of this field, leading all horses with an 89.42 TrackWiz rating, a 57 average speed figure (three full points above anyone else in the race), and a 25% career win rate that speaks for itself. Sofia Vives rides for trainer Anthony Adamo, and the 7/5 morning line reflects what everyone already knows — this horse is simply better. Short sprints reward horses who can get out quickly and sustain it, and those speed figures say she can do exactly that.

place3Forest FlashML 5/2

Forest Flash comes in with a 19% career win rate — second only to Back to Reality in this field — and a 55 average speed figure that should put him in the mix at the top of the pack. Trainer Jeff Voyce also has Sea to Air in the race, and Juan Crawford gets the nod on Forest Flash, typically a signal of the barn's preference. At 5/2, he's a sound place pick behind the favorite.

show5Sea to AirML 6/1

Sea to Air is the second Voyce entry in this race and carries the highest career win percentage of the supporting cast at 22% — a figure that commands attention. Mosqueira rides, and a 55 average speed figure keeps her competitive in the pace scenario at this tight 4.5-furlong distance. At 6/1, she offers real value for show and exacta slots, and trainers don't run two horses in the same sprint without believing both can fire.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 6

2:35 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Trainer Steven Cathcart saddles two horses in this 5.5-furlong dirt claimer, and both rank near the top of our ratings — which creates an interesting pace scenario and a genuine overlay opportunity for bettors willing to look past the morning-line favorite.

win3MaritudeML 6/1

Maritude is our top pick at 82.71, yet the morning line hangs him at 6/1 while the 2/1 shot Ring Bit sits below in our ratings. Juan Crawford takes the call for trainer Cathcart, who clearly has a live stable today based on his activity across the card. A 53 average speed figure and a 7% career win rate don't scream dominant, but in a seven-horse field where the top rating is 82.71, it doesn't need to — the edge is there.

place4Ring BitML 2/1

Ring Bit is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 with a 79.64 TrackWiz rating and the best career win rate among the top horses at 10%. Helen Marie Vanek rides for trainer Nick Guy Mileni, Jr., in what looks like a straightforward spot at 5.5 furlongs on the dirt. If the crowd has it right and Ring Bit fires, he's ideally positioned to sit just off any pace pressure and pounce.

show2Palmilla's BetML 5/1

Palmilla's Bet is the second Cathcart entry in this race at 5/1 on the morning line, and with a 75.27 TrackWiz rating, she's legitimately competitive. Alexis Sanchez rides, and while a 3% career win rate is thin, this appears to be a horse still developing within the Cathcart program. In a Cathcart-heavy race where both of his horses rate well, the show spot has value — and 5/1 is fair money to grab a piece of a barn running hot.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 7

3:03 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A full nine-horse turf mile with a clear ratings leader flying under the radar on the morning line — and a significant overlay lurking one step off the top that makes this the most interesting betting race of the afternoon.

win9ClarayouthebestML 4/1

Clarayouthebest tops our TrackWiz ratings at 85.62 and carries a 17% career win rate — the best in the field — yet the morning line has her at just 4/1 in a nine-horse field, which is genuinely fair value. Da-Sean Zavier Gaskin gets the mount for trainer Joseph Humber, and a 53 average speed figure holds up well on turf at this distance. At a mile, pace setup matters, and a horse with a 20% career win figure and top ratings often finds a way to get the job done when conditions set up correctly.

place6Last GlimmerML 10/1

Last Glimmer is the overlay alert of the card at 10/1 on the morning line, yet sits second in our ratings at 73.41 — a massive gap between public perception and our model. Trainer Steven Cathcart puts Juan Crawford up, and a 14% career win rate gives Last Glimmer legitimate closing credentials in a turf mile. At double-digit odds, this horse belongs in every exacta and trifecta you build in Race 7.

show5Crumlin TroubleML 5/2

Crumlin Trouble has the best career win rate among the horses not ranked in our top two — an impressive 20% — and draws a 5/2 morning line that reflects public confidence. Christoff Douglas handles the riding duties for trainer James Bentley Begg, and a 54 average speed figure is the second-best in the field. He's a natural show anchor and a solid second choice for straight-win bettors who want to take a shot against Clarayouthebest.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

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Seven races, great weather, and a few spots where the value is genuine — Fort Erie on September 14th has the makings of a solid Monday at the track. Uncarrick Teristic, Buff Bay, and Coherence headline the free picks, while the full premium card rounds out with some intriguing plays including the 89.42-rated Back to Reality. Unlock the complete analysis — pace projections, exotic strategy, and all four premium races — with a TrackWiz subscription at /pricing. Good luck out there today.

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