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Fort Erie Picks & Predictions — September 7, 2026

September 7, 202610 racesAll Fort Erie picks

This card ran on September 7, 2026.

Best bets at Fort Erie, September 7, 2026

Race 14MulmurML 2/112:25 PM EDT

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Labor Day weekend isn't quite finished with us yet. Fort Erie wraps up the holiday stretch on September 7 with a loaded 10-race card under clear skies and a comfortable 72°F — about as close to a perfect racing afternoon as you're going to find on the north shore of Lake Erie.

The headliners are hard to ignore: six stakes races dot the program, spread across dirt sprints, a pair of turf routes, and a 1 3/16-mile dirt marathon that figures to test every horse's stamina. That kind of variety means there's something for every handicapper today, whether you love digging into pace scenarios on the sprint races or hunting value in the longer grass on the turf.

Conditions are about as neutral as they come — no wind, no moisture, no excuses. Fast footing tends to reward horses with proven figures, so don't expect the chaos that comes with a drying-out or rain-affected surface. Today should come down to pure ability and smart trip-finding.

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Race 1

12:25 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

A maiden claiming opener with no career winners in the field, making this all about raw ability — and TrackWiz ratings separate the contenders from the also-rans in a hurry.

win4MulmurML 2/1

Mulmur lands at the top of our TrackWiz ratings with an 88.54 — the highest mark in this field by a comfortable margin — and Roy George Agostino sends him out at a fair 2/1 morning line. With an average speed figure of 53, he's right in line with the mid-pack, but the overall rating edge here is hard to ignore. Michael David gets the call and should have him positioned well in a short 5-furlong sprint where every stride counts.

place3Smarter StillML 7/5

Smarter Still is the morning-line favorite at 7/5 and carries an elite TrackWiz rating of 78.24 — second best in the race. Jason Hoyte is up, and trainer Beverley Chubb has this one pointing well. With a matching average speed of 53, Smarter Still projects as a legitimate place threat who might just need a little more seasoning to challenge for top honors.

show1Frac CityML 3/1

Frac City sits third in the ratings at 70.31 and gets Juan Crawford, one of the more active riders at Fort Erie this meet. Posted at 3/1 on the morning line, there's enough public respect here to keep the price honest without being a false chalk situation. In a maiden field where raw figures are all we have to go on, Frac City's score makes it a credible exotic inclusion.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

12:55 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

This 5-furlong dirt claimer sets up as a pace battle among horses with measurable records, and the TrackWiz numbers point to a clear top two — with a potential overlay lurking at 6/1.

win5People Are PeopleML 2/1

People Are People is the standout here with a TrackWiz rating of 85.66 and the best career win percentage in the field at 20%. The 2/1 morning line reflects the public respect, but the edge in both ratings and wins makes this horse more than just a public fancy. Da-Sean Zavier Gaskin picks up the mount, and with the top average speed figure at 56, pace won't be an issue — this one has the ability to dictate terms from the front.

place1VandooML 6/1

Vandoo is an interesting overlay at 6/1 given a TrackWiz rating of 82.71 — within three points of the top pick. Trainer Joseph Humber has him ready, and Edgar Zenteno takes the reins. The 11% career win rate is modest, but with a 55 average speed figure matching the top pacers, Vandoo has the raw ability to hang around for a piece at a generous price.

show2Forester HumorML 7/2

Forester Humor checks in with a 63.21 TrackWiz rating and a 12% career win percentage — not spectacular, but in a field where Absolute Chairman falls off sharply at 42.08, the mid-tier horses become more relevant in exotics. Juan Crawford, fresh off a Race 1 ride, keeps rolling, and a 55 average speed figure keeps Forester Humor competitive through the stretch of this short sprint.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

We're opening the doors on three races for every reader today — Races 1, 2, and 3 — and the common thread running through our free selections is early pace. On a fast, dry Fort Erie strip, horses that can apply pressure on the front end and hold it tend to have a measurable edge at sprint distances. Mulmur in Race 1 (maiden claiming, 5 furlongs) carries our top TrackWiz rating of 88.54 off a morning line of 2/1, and at a short sprint against other first-timers or light-résumé types, breaking alertly could be the whole ballgame.

Race 2 brings back the 5-furlong dirt dash in a straight claiming affair, and People Are People (85.66 rating, 2/1 ML) is the name to watch. Then we step up to 6½ furlongs for Race 3, where Woodglen Court paces our maiden special weight field with an 88.83 rating and a tight 9/5 morning line — the tightest of the three free selections, which tells you the market agrees with our read. Track condition is neutral today, so trust the figures and trust the pace setup.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

1:25 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

The MSW condition elevates the stakes in Race 3, and two horses — Woodglen Court and Dancin Mary Marie — break sharply away from the rest of the field in the ratings, setting up a likely two-horse show at 6.5 furlongs.

win2Woodglen CourtML 9/5

Woodglen Court tops the TrackWiz ratings at 88.83 and draws the second post at a fair 9/5 morning line. Trainer William G. McMahon sends this one out with a 52 average speed figure that's a bit below the highest in the field, but the overall rating profile and the MSW condition suggest this horse has more upside than the raw speed number shows. Edgar Zenteno, one of the meet's better riders, gets the mount and should keep Woodglen Court in a good spot through the two turns of this 6.5-furlong test.

place3Dancin Mary MarieML 9/2

Dancin Mary Marie is the horse we'd circle as a legit upset threat if the pace heats up. The 83.32 TrackWiz rating is only 5.5 points off the top, and a 54 average speed figure actually edges out Woodglen Court by two ticks. Trainer Desmond Maynard places horses well, and Desean Bynoe is an underrated commodity at this circuit. At 9/2, there's genuine value in pairing this one in your exactas beneath the favorite.

show1LondoML 3/1

Londo is a curious inclusion at 3/1 — public respect that outpaces the 56.67 TrackWiz rating, which sits well below the top pair. That said, Da-Sean Zavier Gaskin is one of the hotter riders at Fort Erie and can squeeze more out of a horse than the numbers project. No career speed figure on record means some uncertainty, but the jockey angle keeps Londo in play as a show hedge in wider exotic tickets.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

Race 4

1:55 PM EDT

Stakes · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Stakes company at 6.5 furlongs and the tightest three-horse cluster atop the ratings we've seen all day — this race begs for exotic play with three legitimate contenders separated by just 6 points.

win5GarofoliML 2/1

Garofoli owns the top TrackWiz rating in this stakes field at 88.54 and pairs it with a standout 33% career win percentage — the best win rate among all horses with significant starts here. Trainer Anthony Adamo has been one of the sharper conditioners at Fort Erie, and Sofia Vives gets the mount. With a 56 average speed figure — tops in this race — Garofoli has both the class and the pure speed to control this race at any pace scenario.

place2Pat's GambleML 3/1

Pat's Gamble brings a strong 83.81 TrackWiz rating and is trained by John Simms, who also has Kiddie Holiday in this same race — a sign the barn is sending two bullets. Edgar Zenteno, who's been busy and effective today, rides, and a 55 average speed figure matches most of the field. At 3/1, Pat's Gamble is a honest price for a horse who fits naturally as the main exacta companion to the top pick.

show7Mia and MeML 5/1

Mia and Me rounds out the top three with an 82.53 TrackWiz rating and an 18% career win percentage — respectable numbers in a stakes field. Juan Crawford gets the call, and trainer Sharon Ceccato has her pointed for this. The 55 average speed figure is right there with the field's best, and at 5/1 on the morning line, Mia and Me brings enough upside to anchor the show position in trifecta plays.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 5

2:25 PM EDT

Stakes · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Stakes Race 5 is essentially a referendum on Splash of Bourbon — a horse with a staggering 57% career win rate — with the question being whether Regal Affair or Souper Diva can spoil the party.

win7Splash of BourbonML 2/1

Splash of Bourbon is as dominant a statistical profile as you'll find at this level: a TrackWiz-leading 88.54 rating and an eye-popping 57% career win percentage that towers over every other starter in this field. Trainer Sid C. Attard is a proven stakes conditioner, and Fraser Aebly has the experience to keep this horse in rhythm through the 6.5 furlongs. The 2/1 morning line is fair — this is a horse that's won more than half its career starts and deserves chalk status.

place4Regal AffairML 5/1

Regal Affair at 5/1 is the most interesting counter-punch in the field. The 72.24 TrackWiz rating is a clear step below the top choice, but a 54 average speed figure and the backing of Steve Attard — another member of the well-regarded Attard training family — makes this one more than a name on the page. With a 12% career win rate, Regal Affair isn't going to steal this thing, but it's a legitimate place contender at a price worth sprinkling in exotics.

show1Souper DivaML 7/2

Souper Diva checks in with a 70.58 TrackWiz rating and an 18% career win percentage under trainer Steven Chircop. Jose Luis Campos rides, and the 55 average speed figure keeps this horse in play on pure ability. At 7/2, this is almost a public horse that's being underrated by our ratings slightly — but in a race where one horse dominates the stats, Souper Diva comfortably holds down the show slot in multi-horse tickets.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 6

2:55 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

The first turf race on the card brings a full, sprawling field of twelve, and a pair of horses — Hot Omelet and Knotty and Nice — separate from the crowd in a race where the morning line underestimates our top pick.

win9Hot OmeletML 5/1

Hot Omelet draws program number 9 and comes in as our TrackWiz top-rated turf runner at 84.17 with a 28% career win percentage — the highest win rate among the contenders in this field. Trainer Joshua Robillard has pointed this horse specifically for this surface and distance, and Michael David takes the mount with good course familiarity. At 5/1 on the morning line, this is genuine overlay territory given the ratings advantage, and 1 1/16 miles on turf suits closers who can find a rhythm — Hot Omelet profiles exactly that way.

place11Knotty and NiceML 4/1

Knotty and Nice rolls in with an 82.05 TrackWiz rating and an 18% career win percentage for trainer Julie Mathes. Kirk Johnson, who's been active throughout this card, rides, and a 54 average speed figure is among the better marks in this field. The 4/1 morning line is honest value for a horse that's firmly in the win conversation and makes perfect sense as the primary exacta partner beneath our top pick.

show6Candid CandaceML 6/1

Candid Candace at 6/1 brings the third-highest TrackWiz score at 78.62 and a 15% career win rate for trainer Steven Cathcart. Alexis Sanchez gets the call, and despite posting a 53 average speed figure shared by much of this field, the overall rating edge over the bottom half of this dozen-horse field is meaningful. In a big, spread-out turf field, Candid Candace is exactly the kind of 6/1 horse you want as your trifecta anchor.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 12 runners

Race 7

3:25 PM EDT

Stakes · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Momaxie comes in as a heavy morning-line favorite backed by historic numbers, but Spirit Bear at 3/1 and Really Thirsty at 4/1 give this stakes race a legitimate top three that makes for excellent trifecta structure.

win4MomaxieML 9/5

Momaxie is flat-out the most statistically dominant horse on today's entire card: a 88.83 TrackWiz rating and a 57% career win percentage that belongs in a different class from most of this field. Trainer Steven Cathcart has this one primed, and Juan Crawford — one of the meet's most reliable jockeys — gets the assignment. The 9/5 morning line is short, but this is a case where the numbers back up the chalk completely.

place8Spirit BearML 3/1

Spirit Bear is the most logical win upset threat and a slam-dunk place pick at 3/1. The 82.70 TrackWiz rating is a strong second in the field, and a 55 average speed figure matches the top pacers. John Simms trains — the same barn that has Pat's Gamble and Kiddie Holiday firing in Race 4 — and Ryan Munger is a competent, underrated rider at this circuit. This is a horse that can push Momaxie all the way to the wire.

show5Really ThirstyML 4/1

Really Thirsty posts a 78.86 TrackWiz score and a 26% career win percentage — one of the better rates among the non-top picks in this field. Trainer Julie Mathes, who also has Knotty and Nice running in Race 6, is active and in form, and Xarel Forde rides with confidence. A 55 average speed figure ties the field's best mark, giving Really Thirsty legitimate closing kick to secure the show position in this stakes affair.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 8

3:55 PM EDT

Stakes · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

The biggest field of the day — twelve runners in a 6.5-furlong stakes — and Humormeastory brings a combination of elite ratings and career dominance that makes this look like a two-horse race for the top two spots.

win2HumormeastoryML 3/1

Humormeastory comes in with a 87.08 TrackWiz rating and a remarkable 66% career win percentage — a horse that wins roughly two-thirds of the time it runs. Trainer Patrick Dixon quietly places horses in perfect spots, and Jalon L. Samuel gets a live mount here. With a 55 average speed figure among the field's best, Humormeastory has both the class and pace versatility to win from multiple positions in this 12-horse stakes.

place3My CovenantML 5/1

My Covenant brings a strong 78.06 TrackWiz rating and a 25% career win percentage under trainer Audrey Cheung — respectable credentials in a stakes field. Pietro Moran rides, and a 55 average speed figure ties the leaders. At 5/1 on the morning line, My Covenant is a credible place ticket that won't crater your exacta payout the way the favorite might if it runs second.

show9SonofaghostML 10/1

Sonofaghost at 10/1 catches our eye as a show-price value with some upside. The 57.99 TrackWiz rating sits comfortably above many of the deep-field pretenders, and a 50% career win rate — albeit likely from a small sample — is intriguing. Luis Contreras is a big-time jockey who can draft this horse into a good spot in a large field. At double-digit odds, Sonofaghost belongs in your trifectas as the speculative third horse.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 12 runners

Race 9

4:36 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 3/16 mi · Dirt

The marathon of the card — 1 3/16 miles on dirt — and Military Time's TrackWiz rating and career win percentage make this look like a class standout in a wide-open stakes field with several question marks.

win2Military TimeML 2/1

Military Time tops the TrackWiz board at 88.54 with a 28% career win percentage and is backed by Hall of Fame-caliber conditioner Mark E. Casse — the most accomplished trainer on today's entire card. Fraser Aebly gets the mount, and with a 54 average speed figure that fits the pace of this race, Military Time should be comfortable over this longer 1 3/16-mile trip. The 2/1 morning line is respected but fair given the class edge Casse typically enjoys at any track.

place8HighwaytothemoonML 3/1

Highwaytothemoon draws post 8 with a strong 68.80 TrackWiz rating and a 50% career win percentage under trainer Dale A. Desruisseaux — numbers that jump off the page for a 3/1 morning-line horse. Jose Luis Campos rides, and a 54 average speed figure keeps this one competitive into the late stages of a route. This is a horse that knows how to win and could easily outrun its program position.

show3BrachettoML 8/1

Brachetto sits third in our ratings at 65.73 with a 33% career win percentage for trainer Julia Carey. Ryan Munger is up, and a 54 average speed figure matches the top pair in this field. The 8/1 morning line might be an overlay given the strong win rate, making Brachetto a terrific trifecta anchor at a price that makes the payout worthwhile.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 10

5:15 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

The closing turf stake brings a loaded 10-horse field, and Lasting Silence's TrackWiz rating and 40% career win rate make this look like one of the most bankable top picks on the entire card.

win10Lasting SilenceML 5/2

Lasting Silence is the clear TrackWiz leader at 87.81 and brings a 40% career win percentage — remarkable numbers for a horse going off at just 5/2 on the morning line. Trainer Sharon Ceccato keeps horses sharp, and Juan Crawford, who's been busy and effective throughout this card, gets the call. A 54 average speed figure is competitive, and the combination of elite rating and demonstrated winning pedigree makes Lasting Silence a confident Best Bet selection to close out the card.

place2Scat FactorML 5/1

Scat Factor is a legit win threat masquerading as a place pick at 5/1. The 80.23 TrackWiz rating is a strong second in the field, and a 20% career win rate for trainer Alison Jennings is respectable. Alexis Sanchez rides, and with a 53 average speed figure on turf, Scat Factor has the pace to stay within striking range throughout this 1 1/16-mile turf trip. If Lasting Silence gets into traffic or a rough trip, this is your live exacta companion.

show7Heard a GhostML 6/1

Heard a Ghost checks in at 6/1 with a 69.92 TrackWiz rating and an 18% career win percentage for trainer Michael J. Blake. Helen Marie Vanek rides, and a 54 average speed figure — matching the field's best — keeps this one in the mix right to the wire. In a ten-horse turf field where pace can get complicated, Heard a Ghost profiles as a mid-pack stalker who hits the board more often than the morning line suggests.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

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Fort Erie has dealt us a clean, fair track and a card deep enough to keep you busy all afternoon. Start with our free best bets — Mulmur, People Are People, and Woodglen Court — and if you want the complete roadmap through six stakes races and a full exotic wagering strategy, the premium analysis is waiting for you at TrackWiz Premium. Good luck, and enjoy the card.

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