Fort Erie Picks & Predictions — September 7, 2026

Pat's Gamble brings a strong 83.81 TrackWiz rating and is trained by John Simms, who also has Kiddie Holiday in this same race — a sign the barn is sending two bullets. Edgar Zenteno, who's been busy and effective today, rides, and a 55 average speed figure matches most of the field. At 3/1, Pat's Gamble is a honest price for a horse who fits naturally as the main exacta companion to the top pick.

Mia and Me rounds out the top three with an 82.53 TrackWiz rating and an 18% career win percentage — respectable numbers in a stakes field. Juan Crawford gets the call, and trainer Sharon Ceccato has her pointed for this. The 55 average speed figure is right there with the field's best, and at 5/1 on the morning line, Mia and Me brings enough upside to anchor the show position in trifecta plays.

Regal Affair at 5/1 is the most interesting counter-punch in the field. The 72.24 TrackWiz rating is a clear step below the top choice, but a 54 average speed figure and the backing of Steve Attard — another member of the well-regarded Attard training family — makes this one more than a name on the page. With a 12% career win rate, Regal Affair isn't going to steal this thing, but it's a legitimate place contender at a price worth sprinkling in exotics.

Souper Diva checks in with a 70.58 TrackWiz rating and an 18% career win percentage under trainer Steven Chircop. Jose Luis Campos rides, and the 55 average speed figure keeps this horse in play on pure ability. At 7/2, this is almost a public horse that's being underrated by our ratings slightly — but in a race where one horse dominates the stats, Souper Diva comfortably holds down the show slot in multi-horse tickets.

Knotty and Nice rolls in with an 82.05 TrackWiz rating and an 18% career win percentage for trainer Julie Mathes. Kirk Johnson, who's been active throughout this card, rides, and a 54 average speed figure is among the better marks in this field. The 4/1 morning line is honest value for a horse that's firmly in the win conversation and makes perfect sense as the primary exacta partner beneath our top pick.

Candid Candace at 6/1 brings the third-highest TrackWiz score at 78.62 and a 15% career win rate for trainer Steven Cathcart. Alexis Sanchez gets the call, and despite posting a 53 average speed figure shared by much of this field, the overall rating edge over the bottom half of this dozen-horse field is meaningful. In a big, spread-out turf field, Candid Candace is exactly the kind of 6/1 horse you want as your trifecta anchor.

Spirit Bear is the most logical win upset threat and a slam-dunk place pick at 3/1. The 82.70 TrackWiz rating is a strong second in the field, and a 55 average speed figure matches the top pacers. John Simms trains — the same barn that has Pat's Gamble and Kiddie Holiday firing in Race 4 — and Ryan Munger is a competent, underrated rider at this circuit. This is a horse that can push Momaxie all the way to the wire.

Really Thirsty posts a 78.86 TrackWiz score and a 26% career win percentage — one of the better rates among the non-top picks in this field. Trainer Julie Mathes, who also has Knotty and Nice running in Race 6, is active and in form, and Xarel Forde rides with confidence. A 55 average speed figure ties the field's best mark, giving Really Thirsty legitimate closing kick to secure the show position in this stakes affair.

My Covenant brings a strong 78.06 TrackWiz rating and a 25% career win percentage under trainer Audrey Cheung — respectable credentials in a stakes field. Pietro Moran rides, and a 55 average speed figure ties the leaders. At 5/1 on the morning line, My Covenant is a credible place ticket that won't crater your exacta payout the way the favorite might if it runs second.

Sonofaghost at 10/1 catches our eye as a show-price value with some upside. The 57.99 TrackWiz rating sits comfortably above many of the deep-field pretenders, and a 50% career win rate — albeit likely from a small sample — is intriguing. Luis Contreras is a big-time jockey who can draft this horse into a good spot in a large field. At double-digit odds, Sonofaghost belongs in your trifectas as the speculative third horse.

Highwaytothemoon draws post 8 with a strong 68.80 TrackWiz rating and a 50% career win percentage under trainer Dale A. Desruisseaux — numbers that jump off the page for a 3/1 morning-line horse. Jose Luis Campos rides, and a 54 average speed figure keeps this one competitive into the late stages of a route. This is a horse that knows how to win and could easily outrun its program position.

Brachetto sits third in our ratings at 65.73 with a 33% career win percentage for trainer Julia Carey. Ryan Munger is up, and a 54 average speed figure matches the top pair in this field. The 8/1 morning line might be an overlay given the strong win rate, making Brachetto a terrific trifecta anchor at a price that makes the payout worthwhile.

Scat Factor is a legit win threat masquerading as a place pick at 5/1. The 80.23 TrackWiz rating is a strong second in the field, and a 20% career win rate for trainer Alison Jennings is respectable. Alexis Sanchez rides, and with a 53 average speed figure on turf, Scat Factor has the pace to stay within striking range throughout this 1 1/16-mile turf trip. If Lasting Silence gets into traffic or a rough trip, this is your live exacta companion.

Heard a Ghost checks in at 6/1 with a 69.92 TrackWiz rating and an 18% career win percentage for trainer Michael J. Blake. Helen Marie Vanek rides, and a 54 average speed figure — matching the field's best — keeps this one in the mix right to the wire. In a ten-horse turf field where pace can get complicated, Heard a Ghost profiles as a mid-pack stalker who hits the board more often than the morning line suggests.