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Fort Erie Picks & Predictions — August 31, 2026

August 31, 20266 racesAll Fort Erie picks

This card ran on August 31, 2026.

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Best bets at Fort Erie, August 31, 2026

Race 11Bingo's GrindML 2/112:15 PM EDT

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Results are in — see the official Fort Erie chart and payouts (our top pick won 2 of 6)→

Happy Labor Day eve from Fort Erie, where the skies are grey and the rail is getting a good soaking. Rain is falling at 74°F as the six-race card goes to post, and that wet dirt surface is the storyline of the day. Off-track conditions have a way of reshuffling the deck — horses that love a wet track become instant overlays, and speed figures earned on a fast surface need to be taken with a grain of salt.

Six races are on the schedule — four on dirt, two on turf — and the mixed-surface card means the turf questions are just as important as the off-track bias story on the main strip. Whether the turf courses come off or get moved to the dirt is something to watch right up until post time. TrackWiz analysis has identified strong plays throughout, starting with three free looks and digging deeper for subscribers across the full card.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:15 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A clear TrackWiz rating hierarchy sets up Race 1 as a top-heavy affair on the dirt sprint, though the morning line suggests the crowd may underestimate the top selection.

win1Bingo's GrindML 2/1

Bingo's Grind carries the field's highest TrackWiz rating at 88.54 — a significant edge over the 73.09 second-best — and goes postward at a generous 2/1 morning line for trainer Nick Guy Mileni, Jr. Helen Marie Vanek gets the call, and the barn clearly has confidence here given they also saddle the 8/1 Bongino in the same race. At 14% career wins, the raw hit rate is modest, but that rating gap over the field is hard to dismiss in a six-furlong claiming sprint where pace can be controlled from the front.

place2CantucciML 3/1

Cantucci brings a slightly higher average speed figure (56) than the win pick despite a lower overall rating of 73.09, which hints at raw ability that hasn't fully translated to wins at 11% career. At 3/1 on the morning line, Ismael Eluid Mosqueira gets a live mount with some upside, and Cantucci figures to be dangerous on the front end if the pace sets up right.

show5Blue MaxML 9/5

Blue Max draws attention as the second choice on the morning line at 9/5, carrying a 67.19 rating and a solid 20% career win percentage that trails only Attestation among the field. Trainer Kevin Buttigieg sends this one out with Kirk Johnson up, and the consistent career record makes Blue Max a reliable exotics anchor even if the rating says he's third-best here.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

12:43 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

An intriguing allowance mile-plus that pits the highest-rated horse at a generous price against a morning-line favorite whose career numbers are hard to ignore — this one has value play written all over it.

win1Heard a GhostML 9/2

Heard a Ghost is our best bet at 9/2 despite posting the field's top TrackWiz rating of 84.9 — a full 16 points clear of the second-ranked Grand Warrior. Luis R. Reyes rides for trainer Michael J. Blake, and the disconnect between this horse's rating and its morning line odds is exactly the kind of overlay TrackWiz analysis loves to find. At 1 1/16 miles, pace scenarios tend to favor horses with strong overall figures, and Heard a Ghost has that in spades.

place2Grand WarriorML 7/5

Grand Warrior is the morning-line favorite at 7/5 for good reason — a 28% career win percentage is genuinely excellent and stands as the best in the field by a wide margin. Sofia Vives partners with trainer Anthony Adamo, and while the 68.15 rating trails Heard a Ghost considerably, Grand Warrior's consistency at winning gives it a strong case to hit the board at minimum.

show5Times a BreezeML 4/1

Times a Breeze rounds out the exotic ticket at 4/1 with a 46.06 rating and a 12% career win percentage that's middle-of-the-pack here. Leo Salles takes the mount for Roy George Agostino, and the slightly superior average speed figure of 54 compared to Audax Minor and Santiago Salsa suggests there's more here than the odds might indicate for a piece of the purse.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

Our three free races cover both surfaces and a range of conditions — a pair of dirt claimers and one turf test — giving us a nice cross-section of the card. Bingo's Grind is the marquee free pick in Race 1, drawing a morning line of 2/1 in a 6-furlong claiming sprint where the wet dirt could actually play into that horse's profile. Over in Race 2, Heard a Ghost stretches to a mile and a sixteenth in allowance company — the extra ground is worth watching on a potentially tiring off track. Race 3 shifts to the turf for 7 furlongs, where Lonhro's Gamble (5/2 morning line) is the TrackWiz top selection, though any surface shift announcement would change the calculus quickly.

The connecting thread through these three free picks is pace awareness. On a sloppy or muddy strip, early speed can either dominate (if the track cupps up and holds a bias) or come back to the field (if the going gets deep and tiring). We've factored both scenarios into our ratings, and all three top picks carry enough tactical versatility to handle what the day throws at them.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

1:11 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Turf

A tight three-horse battle at the top of the ratings headlines this seven-furlong turf claimer, with the morning-line favorite sitting third in our numbers and a legitimate overlay lurking near the top of the program.

win2Lonhro's GambleML 5/2

Lonhro's Gamble holds the field's highest TrackWiz rating at 87.81 despite going off at 5/2 — second choice on the morning line behind Golden Test. Ismael Eluid Mosqueira partners with trainer Jeff Voyce, a combo worth watching on the Fort Erie turf. At 7% career wins the raw percentage is low, but turf specialists often take time to find their spot, and the overall rating suggests this horse is running into the right race at the right time.

place7Golden TestML 8/5

Golden Test is the morning-line favorite at 8/5 with a strong 85.79 rating, and Christoff Douglas gets the call for Anthony Adamo's barn. The 10% career win rate is modest given the odds, which is part of why we slot Golden Test for place rather than taking a stand on top — the rating is real, but so is the price compression at 8/5 that limits win value.

show1Boston BayML 7/2

Boston Bay at 7/2 offers a solid exotics anchor with an 83.02 rating — third-best in the field — and Da-Sean Zavier Gaskin riding for Joseph Humber. The 6% career win percentage is low, but the rating and morning line suggest the connections feel this horse belongs here, and three-way heat between the top-rated trio makes a show ticket on Boston Bay a sensible hedge.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 4

1:39 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Trainer Steven Cathcart holds the keys to this six-and-a-half furlong dirt claimer, saddling the top two TrackWiz-rated horses — making this a potential exacta barn special if you can stomach the concentration.

win3Fredericka's RoseML 5/2

Fredericka's Rose tops our numbers at 87.81 and draws the 5/2 morning line for Ismael Eluid Mosqueira, one of the busiest jockeys on today's card. Trainer Steven Cathcart sends out two live shots in this race, but Fredericka's Rose gets the nod based on the rating edge and the stronger jockey assignment. A 16% career win rate is solid for this level, and the raw speed figures are in line with what's needed to win a six-and-a-half furlong dirt claiming sprint.

place4Palmilla's BetML 4/1

Palmilla's Bet is Cathcart's second runner here, rated 75.01 — third-best in the field — and Alexis Sanchez gets the mount at 4/1 morning line odds. The 3% career win rate is a concern, but ratings and trainer intent suggest this horse is well placed, and in a race where the barn controls two of the top three rated horses, exacta combinations with both Cathcart runners deserve serious consideration.

show5SilverdartML 9/2

Silverdart at 9/2 brings a 74.28 rating and a respectable 12% career win percentage, sitting just a tick below Palmilla's Bet in our numbers. Kirk Johnson rides for Ken Albu, and the similar ratings between the second and third picks in a seven-horse field means Silverdart is a legitimate threat to land in the exacta or show pool for players looking to spread.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 5

2:07 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Doadster's rating towers over this six-and-a-half furlong dirt field, setting up as a potential single for ticket builders — but the 7/2 morning line means price-conscious bettors need to decide early.

win6DoadsterML 7/2

Doadster sits at 86.35 — the field's top rating by a comfortable margin — and sports the highest average speed figure in the race at 56, which stands out in a group where most horses are clustered at 52-54. Ismael Eluid Mosqueira brings proven ability around Fort Erie, and trainer Jeff Voyce has a live runner here. The 7/2 morning line on a horse this clearly superior in the numbers is a value opportunity our analysis doesn't want to pass on.

place5Let's Go LiamML 3/1

Let's Go Liam checks in at 60.98 with a 3/1 morning line for Leo Salles and trainer Nick Guy Mileni, Jr. — a barn that also runs Bingo's Grind earlier today. The 5% career win rate is thin, but at 54 average speed and with the top trainer/jockey pairing giving this horse a long look, Let's Go Liam has the profile of a horse that can hang around for a piece of the board money behind the standout top pick.

show4Jagr DudeML 8/1

Jagr Dude is the value angle in the show spot — the 50% career win percentage is eye-catching and almost certainly reflects a limited but productive sample size. Kirk Johnson rides for Julie Mathes at 8/1, and a 48.33 rating paired with that win rate suggests this horse knows how to finish. Exotic players looking for a show value to anchor a trifecta bottom should give Jagr Dude a hard look.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 6

2:35 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Turf

A wide-open twelve-horse turf claimer with multiple horses clustered near the top of the ratings — this is exactly the kind of full-field turf race where pace scenarios and post position create chaos and opportunity.

win1Silent MiracleML 4/1

Silent Miracle leads our ratings at 84.71 with a 21% career win percentage — the best in this large field — and gets Ismael Eluid Mosqueira aboard for trainer Jeff Voyce at 4/1 on the morning line. The Voyce barn also runs Forest Flash in this race, which speaks to the trainer's confidence in this spot. A 21% win rate in a twelve-horse field is genuinely impressive, and that combination of strong rating, elite career consistency, and a live jockey makes Silent Miracle our best bet on the card's biggest field.

place5Star ScholarML 5/1

Star Scholar is within a half-point of Silent Miracle in our ratings at 84.17, offering near-identical analytical credentials at 5/1 morning line odds — making it a legit value play. Juan Crawford takes the mount for John Simms, and while the 8% career win rate is modest, the overall rating says this horse runs with the best in this field and figures to be dangerous in the stretch of a seven-furlong turf test.

show11Silent PatsyML 10/1

Silent Patsy at 10/1 is the value show play in this wide-open field — a 63.12 rating sits well above the bottom half of this group, and Da-Sean Zavier Gaskin rides for Valerie Thompson. The 9% career win rate is consistent with the rest of the mid-tier here, but the odds make Silent Patsy worth including in trifectas and superfectas as a live longshot with enough ability to sneak into the top three.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 12 runners

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Fort Erie in the rain on August 31 — six races, two surfaces, and a track condition that rewards preparation over guesswork. Bingo's Grind, Heard a Ghost, and Lonhro's Gamble are our free best bets to get you started. For pace projections, exotic ticket builds, and the full Race 4–6 analysis, TrackWiz premium subscribers have everything they need. Good luck out there — and watch that off-track bias as the card unfolds.

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