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Fort Erie Picks & Predictions — August 24, 2026

August 24, 20268 racesAll Fort Erie picks

Fort Erie is racing under grey skies and steady rain this Monday, with temperatures sitting at a cool 66°F. That means the turf is going to be softer than usual — something that can completely flip a race on its head if you're not paying attention to which horses have shown they can handle a yielding or soft lawn.

Eight races are on the schedule today, split across dirt and turf, ranging from maiden claimers to open claiming company. It's a workmanlike card, but don't let that fool you — there's real money to be made when the conditions are unusual and the public is slow to adjust.

Our TrackWiz analysis has combed through the full card. Three races are available to all readers as free best bets, and five are behind the premium paywall for subscribers who want the complete picture.

Best Bets

Race 1

8:30 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 7 fur · Turf

A maiden claiming sprint on the turf with a field full of winless horses, but one runner's TrackWiz rating towers over the rest — creating a clear top choice in an otherwise muddled opener.

win9Rose for CarrickML 3/1

Rose for Carrick (#9) posts a TrackWiz rating of 87.08 — more than 33 points clear of the next-best horse in this field — which is a massive separation in a maiden claiming event. Trainer Julie Mathes puts Kirk Johnson in the irons, and at a 3/1 morning line this isn't even an overlay ask. On a 7-furlong turf course where pace can be forgiving, expect this one to run to her rating and take command. In a race where every other runner has a zero career win percentage, that rating edge is hard to dismiss.

place4Woodglen CourtML 7/2

Woodglen Court (#4) is the morning line favorite at 7/2 with a solid 53.74 TrackWiz rating, sitting comfortably in the second tier of this field. Edgar Zenteno gets the call for trainer William G. McMahon, and with an average speed figure of 52, Woodglen Court has enough back class to expect a placing effort even if she can't quite match Rose for Carrick's ceiling.

show3Sassagoula RiverML 8/1

Sassagoula River (#3) checks in with a 51.98 rating and a slightly higher average speed of 54 compared to several rivals — a subtle edge in a bunched middle group. Trainer Michael V. Cohen keeps Steve Jadoo aboard, and at 8/1 on the morning line, she's a useful exotic anchor if the top two runners suck up all the early money. The 7-furlong turf trip should suit a horse who can be rated off the pace.

Race 2

8:58 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

Five maiden claimers going a quick 5 furlongs on the dirt, and the pace should be hot enough to set up a closer — though the TrackWiz ratings point to one horse standing well above the rest.

win5Silent MortML 9/5

Silent Mort (#5) is the standout with a field-best 88.83 TrackWiz rating and the top average speed figure at 54 — a meaningful edge in a short, sharp sprint. Trainer Nick Guy Mileni Jr. sends Helen Marie Vanek to the post at a 9/5 morning line, which isn't generous odds, but the rating gap here is real. In a five-furlong dash, talent shows up quickly and Silent Mort has more of it than anyone else in this five-horse field.

place4Hatrixie MomentML 3/1

Hatrixie Moment (#4) rates second-best on the TrackWiz model at 58.22 and shares the same 53 average speed figure as the top three in the field. Trainer Tedston Holder deploys Robert Augustus Stewart, and at 3/1 there's legitimate place value here. If anything goes wrong early for the favorite, Hatrixie Moment has the profile to pounce.

show3Smarter StillML 2/1

Smarter Still (#3) carries a 55.65 rating and comes in as the second betting choice at 2/1 on the morning line — trainer Beverley Chubb and jockey Jason Hoyte teaming up in what figures to be a tight early battle for position. The show slot feels like a floor for a horse this well-regarded by the market, and tossing her into the show position of exactas and trifectas seems like a prudent hedge against the chalk.

Race 3

9:26 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

A short-field claiming sprint on the dirt where the experienced runners bring real win percentages to the table — but one horse's TrackWiz rating creates a clear separation at the top.

win3Back to RealityML 9/5

Back to Reality (#3) posts the field's highest TrackWiz rating at 88.83 and the best average speed figure at 56 — both class indicators that matter over five furlongs on the dirt. Trainer Anthony Adamo and jockey Sofia Vives combine here, and Back to Reality's 22% career win rate tells you this horse knows how to finish. The 9/5 morning line makes this a mild favorite, and the numbers back up that market confidence.

place1Ernie's MartiniML 5/2

Ernie's Martini (#1) is no slouch — a 78.49 rating and a 21% career win rate give this horse genuine top-two credentials. Trainer Kevin Buttigieg deploys Da-Sean Zavier Gaskin, and at 5/2 on the morning line, Ernie's Martini figures to be prominent from the rail early. Even if Back to Reality runs to her rating, Ernie's Martini has enough tactical speed to hold the place position.

show2AttestationML 8/1

Attestation (#2) is a sneaky inclusion at 8/1 on the morning line — the 22% career win rate actually matches Back to Reality's, and the 55 average speed figure leads the field. Trainer Joseph Humber and Luis R. Reyes might find a pace setup here that lets Attestation close into a slice of the prize. At those odds, she's a legitimate exotic play for bettors who want some upside in their trifecta.

The free best bets today are spread across the opening three races — Races 1, 2, and 3 — and they each tell a connected story about how to approach Fort Erie in the wet. In Race 1, Rose for Carrick (3/1 ML, TrackWiz rating 87.08) headlines a 7-furlong turf maiden claimer, and the softening ground is a legitimate factor to weigh. In Race 2, Silent Mort goes to post as the 9/5 morning-line favorite in a 5-furlong dirt maiden claimer and carries our highest free-race rating at 88.83 — a reassuring number on a surface that won't be affected by the rain the same way turf will. Race 3 brings Back to Reality at 9/5 in an open claiming sprint on dirt, matching Silent Mort's rating and giving us another reason to trust the dirt side of the card early.

The throughline here: lean toward the dirt in the early races where the surface edge is cleaner, and be selective on turf — the rain changes pace dynamics and can make front-runners or closers more potent depending on how the ground plays. We'll be watching the first few races closely for any bias signal before the later turf events.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

9:54 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

A nine-horse claiming sprint on the turf where three horses — Lumberyard, Four Beach Friends, and Doadster — separate themselves from the rest of the field on the TrackWiz model, setting up a fascinating battle at the top.

win9LumberyardML 4/1

Lumberyard (#9) leads all runners with an 85.62 TrackWiz rating and ties for the best average speed figure at 55, giving trainer Nick Guy Mileni Jr. a strong contender at a tempting 4/1 morning line. Helen Marie Vanek takes the mount, and with a 5% career win rate in what figures to be a competitive spot, the value angle here is real. On a 5-furlong turf sprint where tactical speed is at a premium, Lumberyard's numbers suggest she can go wire-to-wire or at least lead into the stretch.

place6Four Beach FriendsML 5/1

Four Beach Friends (#6) rates 80.94 — second in the field — and shares the 55 average speed figure with the top picks. Trainer Julie Mathes puts Kirk Johnson up at 5/1, and this horse's 7% career win rate shows consistent competitiveness. The 5/1 morning line offers real place value if you're building exactas around the top pick, and this profile — solid rating, proven speed, respected connections — is exactly what you want in the second spot.

show3DoadsterML 3/1

Doadster (#3) checks in at 76.59 on the TrackWiz model and also hits that 55 average speed number, making three horses in this field that are closely bunched on raw speed. Trainer Jeff Voyce and Ismael Eluid Mosqueira are live at 3/1 and this is the morning-line third choice for a reason. If the top two battle up front, Doadster's closing profile could benefit from the pace setup over this short turf trip.

Race 5

10:22 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Stretching out to 1 1/16 miles on the dirt, this claiming field brings some legitimate career win percentages — and a top-rated runner whose numbers align perfectly with the longer trip.

win4Candid CandaceML 7/2

Candid Candace (#4) leads this field with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating and a 16% career win rate — both strong indicators for a horse taking on a route distance where fitness and class matter most. Trainer Steven Cathcart places Alexis Sanchez aboard at a 7/2 morning line, which represents value against a field where no one else exceeds 75 on the rating scale. Over 1 1/16 miles on the dirt, horses with class tend to find their best running late, and Candid Candace has that profile.

place6Hot OmeletML 3/1

Hot Omelet (#6) brings the field's best career win rate at 27% — a number that stands out sharply against the competition. Trainer Joshua Robillard sends Michael David to post at 3/1, and Hot Omelet's 73.31 TrackWiz rating slots neatly into the second tier. That win percentage suggests a horse who competes hard and finds the winner's circle regularly; a place in a field like this seems like a reasonable expectation.

show1Little IrisML 4/1

Little Iris (#1) rates 72.53 with a 15% career win rate and gets the rail post with Prayven Badrie at 4/1 — a combination that could easily produce a forward-tracking trip on a route course. Trainer Steven Cathcart runs back both Little Iris and Candid Candace in the same race, which signals confidence in the barn. Little Iris's show position here serves as a hedge in trifecta structures, especially given how tightly grouped the top three are on the ratings scale.

Race 6

10:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A small but sharp claiming field at 5½ furlongs on the dirt, with a clear top-rated morning line favorite and a legitimate second horse at a price — the kind of race where the TrackWiz model and the betting market are largely in agreement.

win1Getting AheadML 2/1

Getting Ahead (#1) tops the field with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating and the joint-best average speed figure at 55, backed by a 17% career win rate that speaks to consistency. Trainer Erin H. Rickman deploys Michael David from the rail post at just 2/1 on the morning line — a short price but a justified one given the rating edge. In a six-horse field going 5½ furlongs, a horse with that speed figure and a rail post can dictate pace terms and be very difficult to run down.

place3RiflingML 5/1

Rifling (#3) is the value angle in this race — an 84.17 TrackWiz rating that nearly matches the top pick, a 12% career win rate, and a 5/1 morning line that rewards the patient bettor. Trainer Michael J. Blake puts Luis R. Reyes up, and if Getting Ahead gets involved in any pace battle early, Rifling has the rating to close into a place. The gap between Rifling's rating and the rest of the field below is nearly as wide as the gap at the top.

show2Ala TurkaML 9/5

Ala Turka (#2) rates 73.48 with a 13% career win rate and comes in at 9/5 as the second betting choice — suggesting the market sees more in this horse than the TrackWiz rating alone might indicate. Trainer Julie Mathes and Xarel Forde team up here, and Ala Turka's average speed of 54 is consistent with a placing effort at this level. In exactas and trifectas, she's a sensible show include to protect against any surprises.

Race 7

11:18 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Turf

The biggest field on the card — eleven horses going 7 furlongs on the turf — and the pace scenario figures to be complicated, which could set things up nicely for the horses with the highest ratings to come running late.

win11Silent PassionML 5/1

Silent Passion (#11) posts an 84.17 TrackWiz rating — best in the field — with a 20% career win rate and the top average speed figure at 55. Trainer Nick Guy Mileni Jr. goes right back to Helen Marie Vanek, the same combination that we like in Race 2 today, and at 5/1 on the morning line, there's genuine value for a horse rated this highly. Seven furlongs on the turf gives this runner room to find her stride, and that 20% win rate tells you she converts when she's right.

place1Nice BabyML 9/2

Nice Baby (#1) is right behind at 82.32 on the TrackWiz model, and the 22% career win rate is actually the best in the field — this horse has a habit of finishing in the money. Trainer Anthony Adamo teams with Sofia Vives at 9/2, and in an eleven-horse turf field, a reliable front-runner or stalker with that win percentage is exactly the kind of horse you want in the place slot of your exactas. The rating and the record are a convincing combination.

show6Coach CaleyML 5/2

Coach Caley (#6) rates 74.31 with a 16% career win rate — solid credentials — but what stands out is the 5/2 morning line, suggesting this is where some of the sharp early money may land. Trainer Julie Mathes and Chad Lee team up in a race where the pace could get messy with ten other horses jockeying for position. Coach Caley's show inclusion in exotic wagers makes sense as a bridge between the top two and the wide-open bottom half of this field.

Race 8

11:46 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Eight claiming runners at 5½ furlongs on the dirt to close the card, and while several horses bring respectable win percentages, the TrackWiz ratings create a clear top pick — with a pair of value options beneath.

win2Half to ReloadML 5/2

Half to Reload (#2) is the class of this field — an 87.81 TrackWiz rating and the top average speed figure at 56 put this horse in a different tier than most in here. Trainer Michael J. Blake goes with Helen Marie Vanek, who appears on multiple cards today, and the 19% career win rate reinforces that this horse competes and delivers. At 5/2 on the morning line, the odds aren't a gift, but the quality of the rating is undeniable for a 5½-furlong dirt sprint.

place8Paperback HeroML 4/1

Paperback Hero (#8) offers the best value angle here — a 65.33 TrackWiz rating, a 20% career win rate, and a 4/1 morning line. Trainer Roy George Agostino puts Leo Salles up from the outside post, and that win rate is among the highest in this field. Sometimes horses with the deepest winning habits find a way to compete even when the ratings suggest they shouldn't, and Paperback Hero's record earns inclusion in place positions.

show5Little Red DomiML 3/1

Little Red Domi (#5) brings a 25% career win rate — the highest in the field by some margin — along with a 54 rating and a 3/1 morning line. Trainer Beverley Chubb and Juan Crawford team up here, and in a race where several horses have legitimate stamping power, Little Red Domi's conversion history is a meaningful data point. As a show play or an exotics include, that win rate offers a safety net that the raw rating numbers alone don't fully capture.

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Today at Fort Erie, the rain is the storyline — and the smart money is on bettors who adjust faster than the public does. Rose for Carrick, Silent Mort, and Back to Reality are your free best bets to get started. For pace scenarios, exotic tickets, and our full take on Candid Candace, Getting Ahead, Half to Reload, and the rest of the card, the complete analysis is waiting for subscribers. Check out our TrackWiz subscription plans if you want every angle on every race. Good luck out there — and watch that turf.

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