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Free Fort Erie Picks & Predictions — August 18, 2026
Fort Erie is open for business on a pleasant Tuesday afternoon — partly cloudy skies, 77°F, and conditions that set up nicely for a full six-race card mixing dirt sprints with a couple of turf tests. It's the kind of day where a good pace read can separate you from the crowd.
We've got claiming races, a pair of allowance bouts, and a maiden claiming affair on the grass to keep things interesting. Three of today's six races are free for all TrackWiz readers — and the premium side of the card has some genuinely compelling wagering angles worth digging into.
3 Free Races at Fort Erie
Race 1
Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt
The morning line tells the story here — Fairway to Heaven and Blue Max are separated by just 20 points in TrackWiz ratings but diverge sharply in career consistency, setting up a genuine pace duel over 6½ furlongs of Fort Erie dirt.
Fairway to Heaven earns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 88.54, a clear edge over everyone else in the race. Trainer Steven Cathcart sends this one out with Alexis Sanchez in the irons — a familiar combination at this track. The 2/1 morning line reflects public respect, and with that rating advantage, this horse should be carrying the fastest back numbers into the gate. At 6½ furlongs on dirt, there's enough real estate for a quality front-runner or presser to hold on, and we like Fairway to Heaven's profile to do exactly that.
Where Is Essa brings the best career win percentage in the field at 17%, which is a legitimately useful stat in a claiming sprint — it tells you this horse knows how to finish. Trainer Sharon Ceccato has Juan Crawford up, and with an 83.47 TrackWiz rating, this one slots in as a solid place contender behind our top pick. A 3/1 morning line feels fair; if Fairway to Heaven draws away, Where Is Essa looks like the most reliable runner-up in the group.
Blue Max is the morning line favorite at 9/5 but rates third in our model at 68.74 — that gap between public price and TrackWiz rating is worth noting. The 21% career win rate is the highest in the field and signals a horse who fires consistently, even if our numbers don't love the matchup against the top two. Kirk Johnson gets the call for trainer Kevin Buttigieg, and at short odds, Blue Max should find its way into the money even if it can't quite match the top pair.
Race 2
Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt
Citori stands out as a clear class separator in this 5½-furlong claiming sprint, but Super Serenade and Holiday Rose could make the underneath interesting if the favorite faces any trouble at the break.
Citori tops the TrackWiz ratings at 88.54 — the same elite mark that powered Race 1's top pick — and gets the talented Kirk Johnson aboard for trainer Julie Mathes. A 16% career win rate is respectable in a field where most runners are in the single digits, and the 2/1 morning line makes this a legitimate win bet rather than just a dutching exercise. At 5½ furlongs, early speed and tactical efficiency matter, and Citori's profile suggests a horse capable of stalking and pouncing.
Super Serenade opens at 4/1 on the morning line with a 76.62 TrackWiz rating — that's a meaningful gap from Holiday Rose and the rest of the mid-tier runners. Trainer Howard Keen puts Jason Hoyte up, and the 10% career win rate is modest, but in a race where we're separating contenders by class, Super Serenade is clearly the second-best horse on paper. If Citori handles the pace battle at the front, Super Serenade looks poised to collect the place spot.
Holiday Rose is the 9/5 second choice on the morning line, which creates an interesting dynamic — the public likes this one more than our model does at 59.13. That price compression at the windows could actually create value for show-position bettors if Holiday Rose holds form. Jeffrey Ian Alderson rides for trainer Angus Buntain, and a 15% career win rate keeps this one honest as an exotic play.
Race 3
Maiden Claiming · 7 fur · Turf
This maiden claiming turf mile is wide-open on paper with all six runners at zero career wins, but the TrackWiz ratings draw a clean line between a top trio and the rest of the field — the real battle is between the 3/1 and 5/2 shots.
Canadian Forces lands at the top of our TrackWiz ratings for this race at 87.08, and trainer Julie Mathes sends out Kirk Johnson — a combination that's already on the card today. In a maiden event where no horse has broken their maiden, model separation is everything, and Canadian Forces has a meaningful edge on the field at 3/1 on the morning line. The 7-furlong turf trip suits a horse with the kind of ratings profile we see here — enough ground to settle and rally without asking for classic distance stamina.
La Ronde is the sneaky danger at 5/2, checking in with an 85.10 TrackWiz rating — just two points behind our top pick and well clear of the rest of the field. Trainer Claudia S. Rabstein gives the mount to Pierre Mailhot, and the 5/2 morning line suggests the morning line maker sees this as a genuine contender too. In maiden company, two horses this close in ratings often finish 1-2 in either order, making La Ronde a must-use in exacta combinations.
My Emmy is the morning line favorite at 2/1 despite ranking third in our model at 69.29 — a notable gap from the top two that's worth flagging. Trainer Steven Cathcart has Jeffrey Ian Alderson in the irons, and while the public is clearly behind this one, our ratings suggest My Emmy is overbet relative to Canadian Forces and La Ronde. That said, 2/1 on a morning line shows real support, and My Emmy belongs in your show tickets and trifecta construction.
The first three races on the card are fully unlocked, and TrackWiz analysis likes what we see across the board. Fairway to Heaven leads off in the opening 6½-furlong dirt claimer off a morning line of 2/1 — a classic pace scenario where front-runners have historically held on at Fort Erie's tight oval. Citori draws our eye in Race 2, another short dirt sprint where early speed figures to dictate the outcome. Then in Race 3, we shift to the turf for 7 furlongs of maiden claiming action, where Canadian Forces at 3/1 morning line carries a TrackWiz rating of 87.08 — solid for this level and a horse worth watching closely in the grass.
One thread tying these early races together: Fort Erie's dirt has been playing honest in this weather, rewarding horses that can put themselves in position early without burning too much fuel. Keep that in mind as you build your tickets.
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All told, Fort Erie's Tuesday card has more meat on the bone than the race count might suggest. Fairway to Heaven, Citori, and Canadian Forces headline the free selections — and if you want the full picture including Stirling Castle and the turf closer, the premium breakdown is waiting for you. Good luck out there, and as always, bet smart.