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Fort Erie Picks & Predictions — August 18, 2026

August 18, 20266 racesAll Fort Erie picks

This card ran on August 18, 2026.

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Best bets at Fort Erie, August 18, 2026

Race 11Fairway to HeavenML 2/14:30 PM EDT

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Results are in — see the official Fort Erie chart and payouts (our top pick won 2 of 6)→

Fort Erie is open for business on a pleasant Tuesday afternoon — partly cloudy skies, 77°F, and conditions that set up nicely for a full six-race card mixing dirt sprints with a couple of turf tests. It's the kind of day where a good pace read can separate you from the crowd.

We've got claiming races, a pair of allowance bouts, and a maiden claiming affair on the grass to keep things interesting. Three of today's six races are free for all TrackWiz readers — and the premium side of the card has some genuinely compelling wagering angles worth digging into.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:30 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

The morning line tells the story here — Fairway to Heaven and Blue Max are separated by just 20 points in TrackWiz ratings but diverge sharply in career consistency, setting up a genuine pace duel over 6½ furlongs of Fort Erie dirt.

win1Fairway to HeavenML 2/1

Fairway to Heaven earns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 88.54, a clear edge over everyone else in the race. Trainer Steven Cathcart sends this one out with Alexis Sanchez in the irons — a familiar combination at this track. The 2/1 morning line reflects public respect, and with that rating advantage, this horse should be carrying the fastest back numbers into the gate. At 6½ furlongs on dirt, there's enough real estate for a quality front-runner or presser to hold on, and we like Fairway to Heaven's profile to do exactly that.

place2Where Is EssaML 3/1

Where Is Essa brings the best career win percentage in the field at 17%, which is a legitimately useful stat in a claiming sprint — it tells you this horse knows how to finish. Trainer Sharon Ceccato has Juan Crawford up, and with an 83.47 TrackWiz rating, this one slots in as a solid place contender behind our top pick. A 3/1 morning line feels fair; if Fairway to Heaven draws away, Where Is Essa looks like the most reliable runner-up in the group.

show5Blue MaxML 9/5

Blue Max is the morning line favorite at 9/5 but rates third in our model at 68.74 — that gap between public price and TrackWiz rating is worth noting. The 21% career win rate is the highest in the field and signals a horse who fires consistently, even if our numbers don't love the matchup against the top two. Kirk Johnson gets the call for trainer Kevin Buttigieg, and at short odds, Blue Max should find its way into the money even if it can't quite match the top pair.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

4:58 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Citori stands out as a clear class separator in this 5½-furlong claiming sprint, but Super Serenade and Holiday Rose could make the underneath interesting if the favorite faces any trouble at the break.

win2CitoriML 2/1

Citori tops the TrackWiz ratings at 88.54 — the same elite mark that powered Race 1's top pick — and gets the talented Kirk Johnson aboard for trainer Julie Mathes. A 16% career win rate is respectable in a field where most runners are in the single digits, and the 2/1 morning line makes this a legitimate win bet rather than just a dutching exercise. At 5½ furlongs, early speed and tactical efficiency matter, and Citori's profile suggests a horse capable of stalking and pouncing.

place5Super SerenadeML 4/1

Super Serenade opens at 4/1 on the morning line with a 76.62 TrackWiz rating — that's a meaningful gap from Holiday Rose and the rest of the mid-tier runners. Trainer Howard Keen puts Jason Hoyte up, and the 10% career win rate is modest, but in a race where we're separating contenders by class, Super Serenade is clearly the second-best horse on paper. If Citori handles the pace battle at the front, Super Serenade looks poised to collect the place spot.

show3Holiday RoseML 9/5

Holiday Rose is the 9/5 second choice on the morning line, which creates an interesting dynamic — the public likes this one more than our model does at 59.13. That price compression at the windows could actually create value for show-position bettors if Holiday Rose holds form. Jeffrey Ian Alderson rides for trainer Angus Buntain, and a 15% career win rate keeps this one honest as an exotic play.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

The first three races on the card are fully unlocked, and TrackWiz analysis likes what we see across the board. Fairway to Heaven leads off in the opening 6½-furlong dirt claimer off a morning line of 2/1 — a classic pace scenario where front-runners have historically held on at Fort Erie's tight oval. Citori draws our eye in Race 2, another short dirt sprint where early speed figures to dictate the outcome. Then in Race 3, we shift to the turf for 7 furlongs of maiden claiming action, where Canadian Forces at 3/1 morning line carries a TrackWiz rating of 87.08 — solid for this level and a horse worth watching closely in the grass.

One thread tying these early races together: Fort Erie's dirt has been playing honest in this weather, rewarding horses that can put themselves in position early without burning too much fuel. Keep that in mind as you build your tickets.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

5:26 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 7 fur · Turf

This maiden claiming turf mile is wide-open on paper with all six runners at zero career wins, but the TrackWiz ratings draw a clean line between a top trio and the rest of the field — the real battle is between the 3/1 and 5/2 shots.

win2Canadian ForcesML 3/1

Canadian Forces lands at the top of our TrackWiz ratings for this race at 87.08, and trainer Julie Mathes sends out Kirk Johnson — a combination that's already on the card today. In a maiden event where no horse has broken their maiden, model separation is everything, and Canadian Forces has a meaningful edge on the field at 3/1 on the morning line. The 7-furlong turf trip suits a horse with the kind of ratings profile we see here — enough ground to settle and rally without asking for classic distance stamina.

place4La RondeML 5/2

La Ronde is the sneaky danger at 5/2, checking in with an 85.10 TrackWiz rating — just two points behind our top pick and well clear of the rest of the field. Trainer Claudia S. Rabstein gives the mount to Pierre Mailhot, and the 5/2 morning line suggests the morning line maker sees this as a genuine contender too. In maiden company, two horses this close in ratings often finish 1-2 in either order, making La Ronde a must-use in exacta combinations.

show3My EmmyML 2/1

My Emmy is the morning line favorite at 2/1 despite ranking third in our model at 69.29 — a notable gap from the top two that's worth flagging. Trainer Steven Cathcart has Jeffrey Ian Alderson in the irons, and while the public is clearly behind this one, our ratings suggest My Emmy is overbet relative to Canadian Forces and La Ronde. That said, 2/1 on a morning line shows real support, and My Emmy belongs in your show tickets and trifecta construction.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 4

5:54 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Race 4 is a TrackWiz premium race — the ratings reveal a clear top three separated from the bottom of the field, but the juicy part is that our top-rated horse goes at 5/2 while a sneaky 8/1 shot ranks second in the model.

win6HeavylikeachevyML 5/2

Heavylikeachevy leads our TrackWiz ratings at 84.98 and carries a 15% career win rate — the best in the field. Trainer Julie Mathes, who is having a productive day on the card, deploys Kirk Johnson for the third time today, and that level of confidence from connections is notable. The 5/2 morning line is a fair price for the top-rated horse, and at 5½ furlongs on dirt, a horse that consistently finds the winner's circle should be able to handle the short sprint distance. This is our strongest win single of the first four races.

place4Boston BayML 8/1

Boston Bay opens at 8/1 despite ranking second in our model at 79.79 — that's the kind of rating-versus-odds discrepancy that catches our eye every time. Trainer Joseph Humber gives Da-Sean Zavier Gaskin the call, and while the 6% career win rate is the second-lowest among the contenders, the raw speed and class numbers suggest this horse is better than that record implies. At 8/1 on the morning line, Boston Bay is an outstanding value play in exactas and quinellas.

show1Lonhro's GambleML 4/1

Lonhro's Gamble rounds out our top three at a 71.45 TrackWiz rating and 4/1 morning line odds. Trainer Jeff Voyce puts Ismael Eluid Mosqueira up, and even with just a 7% career win rate, this one profiles as a horse that's competitive enough to hit the board in a seven-horse sprint. In a race where our top two are well-separated from the field, Lonhro's Gamble is the logical anchor for trifecta boxes.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 5

6:22 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A competitive allowance sprint at 6½ furlongs where the morning line favorite is also our top-rated horse — but the question is whether the public has already hammered the value, and whether Pat's Gamble at 3/1 represents the smarter ticket.

win1Stirling CastleML 9/5

Stirling Castle is the most impressive résumé in today's card — a 36% career win rate is exceptional by any measure, and that kind of number in an allowance field screams class. Sofia Vives gets the mount for trainer Anthony Adamo, and with a TrackWiz rating of 88.83 at the top of the field, this is our highest-confidence win selection of the afternoon. The 9/5 morning line is short but not prohibitive; when a horse wins more than one-in-three career starts, you pay the price and move on.

place6Pat's GambleML 3/1

Pat's Gamble at 3/1 is the most compelling place bet on the card from a value standpoint — an 81.21 TrackWiz rating with a 3/1 price makes this horse an excellent each-way play. Trainer John Simms puts Edgar Zenteno up, and the 11% career win rate, while modest, doesn't diminish the strong rating this horse carries into the gate. If Stirling Castle is vulnerable at all — say, from the unfavorable inside post — Pat's Gamble is the horse most likely to capitalize.

show2If You InsistML 2/1

If You Insist checks in at 70.54 on the TrackWiz scale with a solid 28% career win percentage — second only to Stirling Castle in this department. Trainer Mark Fournier sends Juan Crawford out at 2/1 on the morning line, which means the public expects this one to be competitive. The combination of strong win percentage and respectable rating makes If You Insist a logical show anchor and a natural inclusion in any trifecta key using Stirling Castle on top.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 6

6:50 PM EDT

Allowance · 7 fur · Turf

The morning line favorite in this 7-furlong allowance turf race checks in fourth on our TrackWiz ratings — that kind of model-versus-odds divergence is exactly where value bettors thrive, and Jinx Me at 6/1 is our standout.

win4Jinx MeML 6/1

Jinx Me leads all runners in this field with an 82.71 TrackWiz rating, yet opens at 6/1 on the morning line — a sizable gap from the 2/1 favorite that represents real overlay potential. Trainer Joseph Humber gives Da-Sean Zavier Gaskin the call, and with a 9% career win rate, this horse has been knocking on the door. At 7 furlongs on Fort Erie turf, there's enough ground for a quality horse to make its move, and Jinx Me's rating suggests it has the tactical speed to do exactly that at a very attractive price.

place1Orient BeachML 5/2

Orient Beach is our place selection at 5/2, going for trainer Kevin Buttigieg with Kirk Johnson aboard — a live combination at this track. The 71.01 TrackWiz rating slots in second in the field, though the 6% career win rate is a flag that this horse finds the board more often than the winner's circle. In a turf sprint where pace can get messy, a horse that consistently runs competitively without necessarily winning is exactly the profile you want in the place slot.

show8Justify PerfectionML 2/1

Justify Perfection is the morning line favorite at 2/1 and posts a 65.23 TrackWiz rating — respectable, but ranking fourth in the field on our model creates an interesting puzzle. Trainer Michaela Neubauer gives the mount to Jeffrey Ian Alderson, and a 16% career win rate is among the better figures in the race. We're comfortable using Justify Perfection in the show position and as a show bet at short odds, though the value play is clearly with Jinx Me at the top of the ticket.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

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All told, Fort Erie's Tuesday card has more meat on the bone than the race count might suggest. Fairway to Heaven, Citori, and Canadian Forces headline the free selections — and if you want the full picture including Stirling Castle and the turf closer, the premium breakdown is waiting for you. Good luck out there, and as always, bet smart.

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